Kansas City Employment by Industry, 2013

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2 Kansas City Employment by Industry, 2013

3 Peer Metro Comparison Greater Kansas City is holding its own in some key indicators: Source: 2013 Data Profile, Jerry Lonergan, Civic Council

4 Peer Metro Comparison Greater Kansas City is lagging its peers in other key indicators: Source: 2013 Data Profile, Jerry Lonergan, Civic Council

5 Peer Metro Comparison Change in GDP per capita, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

6 Industry Specialization Kansas City Metro Specialization by Location Quotient, 2013 Source: EMSI Industry Concentrations

7 Metro Location Quotients by Industry, 2012

8 Growth or Decline Kansas City Metro Change in Employment by Industry Specializations, Source: EMSI Industry Concentrations

9 2012 International Exports as Percent of GDP Indianapolis Louisville Milwaukee St. Louis U.S. Charlotte Austin Nashville Kansas City KANSAS CITY Minneapolis Raleigh Pittsburgh Columbus Omaha San Antonio Oklahoma City Denver 12.7% 12.5% 11.9% 11.7% 11.6% 11.3% 10.8% 10.2% 10.1% 9.6% 9.1% 8.3% 15.0% 14.7% 14.5% 13.9% 16.9% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Source: Brookings Institution Export Nation Industry Concentrations

10 Growth in International Exports Percent change in export value, Source: Brookings Institution Export Nation Industry Concentrations

11 International Exports Mainly manufacturing Source: Brookings Institution Export Nation Industry Concentrations

12 Patent Growth Metro Comparison: Patents per 10,000 Residents, 2011 Source: US Patent Office Innovation and Entrepreneurship

13 Patent Growth Patents Per Year, , Kansas City MSA Source: US Patent Office Innovation and Entrepreneurship

14 Top KC Patent Organizations Share of patent growth, 2011 Source: Brookings Institution Innovation and Entrepreneurship

15 Business Establishment Birth Rate New business establishments divided by total establishments Source: Business Dynamics Innovation and Entrepreneurship

16 Educational attainment Population over age 25, Kansas City vs. Top 100 Metros, 2012 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey Human Capital

17 Bachelor s Degree by Field Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey Human Capital

18 Unemployment vs. Job Openings

19 TOP 10 Occupations in Demand

20 2014 ECONOMIC FORECAST Fall 2013

21 The U.S. economic recovery continues.

22 Growth Before and After Recession, Various Economic Sectors 60% Recession 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Case-Shiller Housing Index Corporate Profits Dow Jones Industrial Average Business Loans Non-farm Employment J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M

23 Labor Force Underutilization Official Unemployment Rate Unemployment + Marginally Attached+Part Time for Economic Reasons (Percent) J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J

24 However, the recovery is still weak

25 Labor Force Not Growing Signficantly 160, , , , , ,000 U.S. Labor Force Percent U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate

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27 Economic recovery comparison % change in GDP since recession end 25% 20% 15% Recession Recession Recession 01 Recession Recession 10% 5% 0% 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Quarters Since End of the Recession

28 Percent Federal Funds Rate During Recession Recoveries Recession Recession Recession 01 Recession Recession 0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Quarters Since End of the Recession

29 The economy has little momentum

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32 KC Forecast

33 KC and US Employment Change Over Prior 12 Months 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% US KC

34 U.S. & KC Employment Growth Rates (January to July growth, seasonally adjusted, by year) 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% KC US 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

35 KC and U.S. GDP Growth (SAAR) 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% History Forecast US KC Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q

36 KC Employment Change, Q/4Q Basis 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

37 Change in Jobs by Industry 2013, 2014 and 2015, 4Q/4Q Manufacturing Construction TCPU Wholesale Retail FIRE Services Government Other 2013 (2012Q4-2013Q4) 2014 (2013Q4-2014Q4) 2015 (2014Q4-2015Q4) -2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

38 Change in Jobs Services Private households Membership associations Personal and laundry services Repair and maintenance Food, drinking places Accommodation, leisure Health Educational Waste management Adminstrative, support Management of companies Professional, scientific 2013Q4-2014Q4 2014Q4-2015Q4 2015Q4-2016Q

39 Forecast Share of KC GDP Growth , Q4/Q4 basis Ag/Mining Utilities Transport/Warehouse Construction Retail Admin Support Wholesale Ed/Health/Social Serv Other Serv Gov't Manufacturing Prof/Sci/Mgmt Serv Information FIRE 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

40 Conclusion KC economy is on a firmer footing than at any time since the recession began Time to begin thinking about the quality of jobs, about adding value Innovation and exports are keys to a prosperous future. A new STEM will lead the way - Science, Technology, Education and Manufacturing.