The Massachusetts Economy: Could This Be the New 90 s?
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1 The Massachusetts Economy: Could This Be the New 90 s? Presentation to MassEcon January 23, 2015 Alan Clayton-Matthews School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs Northeastern University NEEP, MassBenchmarks
2 Growth rates like the last three quarters of 2014 are reminiscent of the 1990 s. 7.0 Growth in Real Product, Massachusetts vs. U.S. Source: U.S., Bureau of Economic Analysis; Massachusetts: MassBenchmarks Quarterly Growth at Annual Rates (%) Projected Massachusetts U.S.
3 A longer look Growth in the Current Economic Index, Massachusetts Source: Alan Clayton-Matthews Massachusetts Recessions (Loss in real state GDP): March May 1980 (2 months) (-0.1%) July January 1982 (6 months) (-0.5%) January September 1991 (32 months) (-11.0%) January February 2003 (25 months) (-3.5%) April July 2009 (15 months) (-4.3%) Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
4 Employment growth especially for the U.S. is accelerating. 3.0 Massachusetts and U.S. Payroll Employment Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Growth From Same Month Prior Year (%) Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 MA US
5 State tax revenues reflect strong income growth and good spending growth. Wage and salary income: 4 th quarter growth of 10.7% (annualized rate); 6.0% higher than 2013Q4. Taxable spending: 4 th quarter growth of 7.4% (annualized rate); 5.1% higher than 2013q4. 240, ,000 Wage and Salary Disbursements, Massachusetts (Derived from Withholding Taxes) Spending on Taxable Regular Sales Items and Motor Vehicles, Massachusetts Source: Massachusetts Dept. of Revenue, Alan Clayton-Matthews Millions of Dollars at Annual Rates 220, , , ,000 Billions of Current Dollars , Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1
6 Unemployment plummeted last year, while the labor force and resident employment surged. 3, , , , , , , , , ,150.0 Massachusetts Household Employment (L), Labor Force (L), and Unemployment (R) (Thousands of Persons) ,100.0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Labor Force Employment Unemployment 100.0
7 Unemployment rates are improving for those hardest hit by the recession, including youth; and lower- and middle-skilled workers. Unemployment Rates by Age, Massachusetts Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment, Massachusetts Month Moving Average. Source: Current Population Survey Month Moving Average. Source: Current Population Survey Less than 25 Years Old Years Old 55 or Older 20 Less Than High School High School or GED Some College, Less Than a Bachelor's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
8 The underemployment rate is on its way back to pre-recession levels U-6 Unemployment Rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate is the official unemployment rate as released by the BLS. The underemployment rate is from the monthy CPS surveys. The Massachusetts underemployment rate is seasonally adjusted and smoothed by Northeastern University Total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 U.S. Massachusetts
9 Changes in stock prices reflect changes in investor sentiment. Life sciences and consumer discretionary sectors have gained the most recently % Change in Market Capitalization, Bloomberg Index for Massachusetts, June 2014 to January 2015, Selected Sectors 20.00% 21% 20% 15.00% 12% 10.00% 5.00% 8% 2% 6% 0.00% -5.00% Consumer Discretionary Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Technology TOTAL % % -13%
10 What s holding the residential single-family sector back? Price appreciation has stalled. Case-Shiller House Price Index Housing permits are still depressed. Massachusetts Single Family Housing Permits Number per Month, Seasonally Adjusted 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Boston 10 Metro Composite 20 Metro Composite Source: Census Bureau, Seasonally Adjusted by Author Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
11 The difference between now and the 1990 s: demographics. Is demographics our destiny? Employment Growth, Massachusetts vs. U.S. 4.0 Sources: NEEP, Moody's Analytics Quarterly Growth at Annual Rates MA U.S.
12 Perhaps not. Can we attract the Millennials? 1.2% Population Growth (July1-July1, Percent) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% % -0.4% MA US
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