A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency

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1 A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency Place cover image here Brian Lewandowski Associate Director, Business Research Division June 14, 2017

2 Project Team Colorado Research Team: Brian Lewandowski Richard Wobbekind University of Colorado Leeds School of Business Business Research Division Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade The following organizations were instrumental in the support of this analysis: Anschutz Foundation, El Pomar Foundation, Gates Family Foundation, and Telluride Foundation.

3 Recession 8 Months National Employment Thousands, Month-over- Month Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, Moody s Analytics, and the BRD.

4 Employment Recovery 10-Year Growth, April 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

5 Employment Recovery 1-Year Growth, April 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

6 Employment Growth Colorado Year-over-Year Change Year-over-Year Growth 62% of rural counties 76% of urban counties 22 still in decline Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

7 Rural Colorado Covered Employment Jobs 350, , ,000 Employment up 67 consecutive months. -2.8% 200, , ,000 50, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

8 Rural Colorado Covered Wages Annual (4Q Rolling) $ Millions $14,000 $12,000 Year-over-Year +1.9% $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

9 Colorado Average Wages Annual Rate (4Q), Nominal Average Wage (Dollars) $60,000 $50,000 Urban $56,600 $40,000 Rural $39,900 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

10 Resiliency Project: Data and Economic Metrics

Nonmetro County Population Growth Average Annual Growth, 1990 2015 Source:

11 Nonmetro County Population Growth Average Annual Growth, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties.

Nonmetro County Employment Growth Average Annual Growth, 1990 2015 Source:

12 Nonmetro County Employment Growth Average Annual Growth, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties.

13 Recessions Total Employment Indexed Growth, Indexed, 1969= Colorado Urban Colorado Rural U.S. Rural Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.

14 Recessions Total Employment Rural Colorado Counties Employment 600, , , , , ,000 0 Rural Proprietor Employment 32% Urban Proprietor Employment 24% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.

15 Employment Growth and Assets Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, COGCC, Energy Information Administration, Colorado Department of Transportation, Colorado Department of Higher Education, Colorado Ski Country USA.

16 Percentage of Population over age 25 with Less than HS Diploma Percentage of Population over age 25 with Graduate Degree Percentage of Population over age 25 with HS Diploma or Equivalent Percentage of Population over age 25 with Bachelor's Degree or Higher Education and Employment Growth Colorado Rural Counties 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% -1% 1% 3% 5% 25% High School Diploma Ave. Annual Employment Growth, Less than High School Diploma Bachelor s Degree or Higher 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -1% 1% 3% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, % Graduate Degree 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -1% 1% 3% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -1% 1% 3% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth,

17 Average Annual Employment Growth Employment and Prime Working Age Pop Colorado Rural Counties 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Prime Working Age Population Share Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

18 Average Annual Employment Growth, Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Agriculture 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Agriculture Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN.

19 Average Annual Employment Growth, Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Private Services 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Private Services Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN.

20 Focus Groups Helping Resiliency Demographics Industry diversity Strong leadership Education and healthcare Transportation access Quality of life Broadband Leadership Inhibitors Adequate, affordable housing Lack of available labor Youth and family retention Childcare

A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency

A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency Place cover image here Brian Lewandowski Associate Director, Business Research Division June 13, 2017 Project Team Colorado Research Team: Brian Lewandowski Richard