Abstract. Acknowledgments

Transcription

1 Abstract Acknowledgments

2 Contents ii / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

3 Summary Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / iii

4 iv / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

5 Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Richard J. Reeder Introduction Retirement Counties Buck 1980 s Trends Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 1

6 Figure 1 There were 484 nonmetro retirement destination counties in the 1970's* *Counties with 15 percent or more net inmigration of persons age 60 and over, Source: Food and Rural Economics Division, ERS, using data from the Bureau of the Census. Figure 2 The number of nonmetro retirement destination counties declined to 190 in the 1980's* *Counties with 15 percent or more net inmigration of persons age 60 and over, Source: Food and Rural Economics Division, ERS, using data from the Bureau of the Census. 2 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

7 Table 1 Elderly and pre-elderly populations continued to grow rapidly in retirement counties in the 1980's Age group U.S. total Metro Nonmetro Nonmetro retirement Percent Total population: Ages 0-17: Ages 18-34: Ages 35-64: Ages 65 and over: Source: Ghelfi et al.,1993, pp. 65, 69, 70. Benefits of Attracting Retirees Now Table 2 Net inmigration and related population growth declined in the 1980's, but they remained substantial in retirement counties Time period U.S. total Metro Nonmetro Nonmetro retirement Thousands Net migration: ,738 7, , ,819 2,840 2,979 2,148 Percent Effect on population: Source: Ghelfi et al.,1993, p.71. Figure 3--Median family income grew in retirement counties in both the 1970's and the 1980's Percent change Nonmetro counties Retirement counties Adjusted for inflation. Source: Ghelfi et al Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 3

8 Retirement Destination Counties: Changing Definitions and Performance in the 1970 s and 1980 s 4 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

9 Figure 4 Rapid growth has characterized many counties in the 1990's* *Population change from 1990 to Source: USDA, ERS, using data from the Bureau of the Census. Percent Greater than to to 5.00 Less than 0 than in past years. Some surveys suggest that between 17 and 38 percent may move away to retire (Governors Task Force, 1994). This would represent a large and growing market for rural retirement destinations. Why Attract Retirees? Rural communities might want to attract retirees to offset problems associated with the major changes in rural America over the last 20 years. One such change is the economic restructuring that characterized rural America in the 1980 s and left many rural communities vulnerable and uncertain about their futures. Traditional rural industries such as farming and mining experienced significant declines in employment and real earnings. Even in rural manufacturing areas, which enjoyed more than 10 percent employment growth during the 1980 s, real median family incomes were stagnant, reflecting industry cost-containment measures resulting from increased global competition (table 3). Many rural economies have revived during the 1990 s, but rural industrial restructuring continues, led by growth in service sector jobs. Retirees are attracted to many of these areas with strong services. In another major change, urban regional service centers have grown and have absorbed retail and service activity from many small rural towns. This change, combined with the industrial restructuring described above, probably accounts for the large number of small rural towns experiencing population decline in recent years. Harley Johansen s recent (1994) study found that of the 13,306 rural places (incorporated towns with less than 2,500 population) in the United States, over 66 percent experienced population loss during the 1980 s. Examining a sample of these small rural towns, Johansen found that the mean number of firms per place declined from 21.3 in 1980 to 15.3 in 1992, and most of this decline is associated with retail activity. The very survival of many of these small towns may be in doubt. Johansen s study concluded that, when it comes to economic opportunity in small rural towns, Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 5

10 Table 3 For retirement counties, the 1980's brought relatively high levels of economic growth and rising median incomes, as well as large increases in poor persons and poor children Nonmetro county type Population Employment Real median Poor persons Poor children Poverty family income rate Percent change Nonmetro total Economic type: Farming Mining Manufacturing Poverty Retirement Proximity to metro: Adjacent to large metro Adjacent to small metro Nonadjacent with city Nonadjacent without city Large metro = 1 million or more residents; small = less than 1 million Population and employment trends are for Other trends are for Source: Ghelfi et al., Research on Retiree Impacts 6 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

11 Economic Impacts Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 7

12 Fiscal Impacts 8 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

13 Places That Might Benefit From Retiree Attraction need potential need potential Population Growth in the Early 1990 s Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 9

14 Other Factors Affecting Desirability of Retiree Attraction 10 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

15 Past Elderly Inmigration Reveals Retiree- Attraction Potential Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 11

16 Figure 5 Many counties had net inmigration of the elderly in the 1980's 15 percent or more net inmigration 5 to 15 percent net inmigration 0 to 5 percent net inmigration Net outmigration Note: Percent net inmigration computed as the net inmigration of population age 60 and over in the 1980's as a percentage of population age 60 and over in Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 12 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

17 Factors Contributing to Retiree- Attraction Potential Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 13

18 Creative State Initiatives Alabama Advantage Model 14 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

19 Arkansas Real Estate Organization Model Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 15

20 Washington Community Self-Help Model Art of Retirement: An Economic Development Program for Rural and Distressed Areas Economic Expansion Using Retiree Income: A Workbook for Rural Washington Communities New York Times Idaho/North Dakota Back-Home Model 16 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

21 South Carolina Planned Retirement Community Model The Economic Impact of the Senior Living Industry in South Carolina Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 17

22 Other State Initiatives North Carolina Retirement Southern Lifestyles: Georgia s Premier Retirement and Relocation Magazin Retirement Living Georgia Georgia On My Mind AAA World, Adventure World, American Legion, Cruise and Tours, Discovery, Friendly Exchange, Home and Away, Mature Market, Midwest Living, Midwest Motorist, Modern Maturity, New Choices, Trailer Life, Travel 50 and Beyond, Vacations, Vista USA, Where To Retire, Woodland Trails Away 18 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

23 Developing a Retirement Industry in Your Community Silver and Gold Conclusions Retiree Attraction Has Both Advantages and Disadvantages Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 19

24 Retiree Attraction Works Better for Some Places Than Others Attraction Strategies Vary From State to State 20 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA

25 References Economic Impact of Savannah Lakes Village on McCormick County, South Carolina Rural Conditions and Trends The Diverse Social and Economic Structure of Nonmetropolitan America Journal of Applied Gerontology The Revised ERS County Typology: An Overview Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1993 to 2050 USA Today Economic Development Quarterly The Art of Retirement: An Economic Development Program for Rural and Distressed Areas Idaho Economic Forecast Rural Conditions and Trends Attracting Retirees to Mississippi Farm Journal The Influence of Retirement In-Migraton on Local Economic Development Regional Science Perspectives Journal of the Community Development Society Community-Based Economic Development in Maine Economic Decline in America s Small Towns American Demographics New York Times State Tax Policy And Senior Citizens Developing a Retirement Industry in Your Community Rural Development Perspectives Economic Adaptation: Alternatives for Nonmetropolitan Areas Economic Research Service/USDA Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development / 21

26 Growth and Change Economic Expansion Using Retiree Income: A Workbook for Rural Washington Communities Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics Rural Development Perspectives Economic Development Quarterly The Economic Impact of the Senior Living Industry in South Carolina Change in the Mountains: Elderly Migration and Population Dynamics in Appalachia 22 / Retiree-Attraction Policies for Rural Development Economic Research Service/USDA