2. Demographics. Population and Households

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1 2. Demographics This analysis describes the existing demographics in. It will be used to identify the major demographic trends that may have an effect on public policy in in the next decade. Demographic data for the State of Wisconsin is also shown for comparison, where readily available. Population and Households Historical Trends Over the past 30 years, the population of increased by 29 percent. As shown on Table 2-1, during the same period population in the State also increased, but at a lower rate (21percent). Also during the same period, the number of households increased by 59 percent. This is consistent with the national trend toward more households, but fewer persons per household. The average household declined from 3.27 in 1970 to 2.60 in, reflecting the move toward more households comprised of single adults, couples without children, and fewer children per household. s household numbers and household size mirrored the percent change for the State of Wisconsin over the past three decades. Population growth in has not been uniform over the three decades. experienced a population boom in the 1970s with over 13,000 new residents arriving to take advantage of new job opportunities. Population growth was particularly strong in the developing suburban communities outside the City of Wausau such as Weston, which increased by 5,000 people (78 percent), and Kronenwetter, which gained over 2,400 people (93 percent). Growth in the slowed in the 1980s, with an increase of over 4,000 residents. This decade, however, marked the growth of the Asian population in, which grew to over 2,000 residents by. The s brought renewed economic opportunities, and grew by 9 percent, with a population growth of over 10,000 residents. Table 2-1a shows the relative impact of Wausau on the population. Although it is the largest city in the, Wausau s growth does not always parallel trends in the as a whole. Since 1970, Wausau has held between 29 percent and 33 percent of the population. Wausau experienced a growth spurt in the 1980s with a large influx of Southeast Asian population, and large annexations of population from the towns of Wausau and Stettin. Wausau s population grew by 17 percent overall since 1970 and by 4 percent during the s. These rates are less than county and state growth, and likely reflect the increasing movement of residents to fringe areas, rural villages and towns throughout the. The trend for dispersed residential development has no doubt had an effect on Wausau and lowered growth rates there. While annexation also affects population growth, it is difficult to predict or direct annexations because they occur as a result of requests by property owners and not through proactive planning by a village or city. For Wausau in particular, annexation has accounted for much of its population growth in Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 1 05/10/06

2 the past few decades, compared to growth resulting from natural increases or in-migration. Table 2-1: Demographic Change, Percent Change 1970 to Percent Change to Total Population 97, , , , % +9% State 4,417,821 4,705,767 4,891,769 5,363, % +10% Total Households 29,771 37,865 41,534 47, % +14% State 1,328,804 1,652,261 1,822,118 2,084, % +14% Average Household Size % -5% State % -7% Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Table 2-1a: Wausau Population Change, Percent Change 1970 to Percent Change to Total Population 97, , , , % +9% City of Wausau 32,806 32,426 37,060 38, % +4% % of Population 34% 29% 32% 31% Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Regional Growth - Table 2-2 illustrates the components of population change in and surrounding counties over the decade since. Components of population change include natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) and migration. has the largest population in the region, and experienced the largest natural increase percentage (6.25 percent) among these counties. About half of the counties experienced most growth from natural increases; the others grew more as a result of inmigration. Waupaca experienced the most startling change, with an excess of deaths over births, but a large inmigration of over 5,800 residents. was second to Waupaca in net migration, which accounted for an additional 3,227 residents. In general, the rate of growth in has been similar overall, relative to the counties that surround it, although slightly higher for natural increases. While began with a larger population base, the percentage of growth in natural increase provides a relative measure for comparison. Other surrounding counties such as Langlade, Lincoln, Shawano and Wood relied more heavily on net migration for their population growth. Some of these counties may have experienced a higher level of in-migration due to retirees and others choosing to build year-round homes on recreational lands. Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 2 05/10/06

3 Racial Composition - Table 2-3 shows the racial composition of and the State of Wisconsin in and. As shown, has experienced some growth in diversity over the last decade. The largest gains reflect the Asian population growth, which in reached almost 5 percent of the population. Both African- American and Hispanic or Latino population also achieved some growth, although each group is less than 1 percent of the population. In the State of Wisconsin as a whole, the African-American population (5.7 percent of the population) and the Hispanic or Latino population (3.5 percent of the population) have a greater presence than in. While relative numbers of the Asian population grew, they make up only 1.7 percent of the State population overall, compared to almost 5 percent in. Age Distribution - Table 2-4 compares the distribution of population by age group in and for and Wisconsin. In in, the age groups with the most population include residents between years old, with the median age at 36 years. In, there were more persons in the age group and fewer persons in the 45 to 64 age group; these distributions likely reflect the aging of the post-world War II baby boomers over the decade. As a result of this age group shift, the median age for both and Wisconsin rose from approximately 32 years in to 36 years in. Other age groups in the stayed relatively proportional between and. The distribution of population across age groups in the in is nearly identical to that of the State. Table 2-4: Population by Age Group, Age Group Percent of Population Wisconsin Wisconsin Under 5 years to 9 years to 14 years (ages 5-17) to 19 years to 24 years (ages 18-24) 25 to 34 years to 44 years to 54 years to 59 years to 64 years to 74 years to 84 years years and over Median Age Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration, ; U.S. Census, Basic Demographic Trend Report Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 3 05/10/06

4 Table 2-2: Components of Total Population Change, and Selected Counties, - Population Population - Numeric Change - Percent Change - Total Total Natural Net Total Natural Net Total Births Deaths Increase Migration Increase Migration 115, ,834 16,129 8,922 7,207 3,227 10, Clark 31,647 33,557 4,606 3,262 1, , Langlade 19,505 20,740 2,331 2, ,170 1, Lincoln 26,993 29,641 3,365 3, ,323 2, Portage 61,405 67, ,371 3,670 2,108 5, Shawano 37,157 40,664 4,676 4, ,178 3, Taylor 18,901 19,680 2,357 1, Waupaca 46,104 51,731 6,184 6, ,809 5, Wood 73,605 75,555 9,689 6,766 2, , State of Wisconsin 4,891,769 5,363, , , , , , Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration, Demographic Services Center, Population Trends in Wisconsin: 1970-, July 2001 Table 2-3: Racial Composition, and Wisconsin Race % % % % White 112, , ,512, ,769, Black or African , , American American Indian or , , Alaska Native Asian 2,430* 2.1 5, , , Native Hawaiian , and Pacific Islander Other Race or Two , , , or More Races Hispanic or Latino , , * Asian and Hawaiian combined in Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration, ; U.S. Census, Basic Demographic Trend Report Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 4 05/10/06

5 Population Forecasts Table 2-5 indicates population projections for completed in 5-year increments between and Projections were computed by the North Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (NCWRPC) and are based on the historical growth rate between 1980 and. These projections assume a moderate rate of growth, resulting in a population increase of 16,784 persons, or 13 percent between and Table 2-5: Population Projections (NCWRPC), Total Population by Year , , , , , , ,618 Source: 2030 Population and Employment Projections Methodology Report, NCWRPC, 2003 Table 2-5a shows population projections completed by the Wisconsin Department of Administration (WDOA), Demographic Services Center. The WDOA population projections are recognized as Wisconsin s official population projections in accordance with Wisconsin Statute These projections are based on the same historical time period as those developed by the NCWRPC, however more recent years carry a greater weight in the WDOA s projected populations. Additionally, the WDOA projections are based on the historical population trends of individual communities, whereas the NCWRPC projections are based on trends in the sub-areas used in the comprehensive planning process. The WDOA projections in Table 2-5a show a more rapid rate of growth for than the NCWRPC projections. The WDOA projects a population of 150,255 by 2030; a 19 percent increase over 30 years. This compares to the NCWRPC population projection of 142,618; a 13 percent increase over 30 years. Table 2-5a: Population Projections (WDOA), Total Population by Year % change 125, , , , , , , Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Population Forecasts by Sub-Area - The NCWRPC predicted 2030 population totals by sub-area at low, moderate and high growth rates for. Table 2-5b shows that under all three scenarios, the South-Central sub-area is expected to experience the highest rate of growth, with 18 percent predicted under a moderate growth rate. This area is seeing increased development as more residents are building year-round homes near the lakes and wildlife/natural refuges there. In addition, housing in the South Central sub-area is in the high growth corridor from Wausau to Mosinee and south to Stevens Point in Portage. The Northwestern sub-area is predicted to experience the least growth, with a one percent decline under a moderate growth scenario. This is one of the strongest agricultural areas in the county. Population may likely decline because there are fewer farmers operating larger farms. In addition, family sizes as a whole are declining, although that trend may be challenged by the larger families that are more prevalent among the Mennonite and Amish residents in the Northwest sub-area. Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 5 05/10/06

6 Table 2-5b: Population Projection Comparison (-2030), By Sub-Area, 2030 Population Projections Moderate Growth High Growth Low Growth Planning Sub-Area Population Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Highway 51 84,603 96,448 14% 100,678 19% 92,217 9% Eastern 9,452 10,775 14% 11,248 19% 10,303 9% Northwestern 9,378 9,284-1% 9,752 4% 8,814-6% South Central 11,649 13,745 18% 14,329 23% 13,163 13% Southwestern 10,752 12,366 15% 12,902 20% 11,827 10% Total 125, ,618 13% 148,909 18% 136,324 8% Source: 2030 Population and Employment Projections Methodology Report, NCWRPC, 2003 Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 6 05/10/06

7 Household Forecasts Like the population projections, household projections were completed by the NCWRPC (Table 2-6) and the WDOA (Table 2-6a) in 5-year increments between and The number of households was calculated by dividing the average persons per household in the into the total population for each 5-year increment shown in Table 2-5a and b. As shown on Table 2-1, the average persons-per-household in was estimated to be 2.60 in. Under the NCWRPC projections using a moderate rate of growth, the number of households is estimated to increase by 6,480 households, or 13 percent between and Table 2-6: Household Projections (NCWRPC), Total Households by Year % chge 48,585 49,665 50,745 51,821 52,904 53,985 55, Source: 2030 Population and Employment Projections Methodology Report, NCWRPC, 2003 Table 2-6a: Household Projections (WDOA), Total Households by Year % chge 47,702 50,109 52,902 55,589 58,181 60,283 62, Source: Derived from population projections prepared by the Wisconsin Department of Administration Education and Income Levels Table 2-7 compares levels of education attainment of residents to State levels. According to Census data, 83.8 percent of residents, age 25 and over, have a high school education or higher, compared to 75.9 percent in. high school graduation percentages are only slightly below similar figures for the State in both and. The percent of residents with a bachelor s degree or higher has also grown from 13.5 percent in to 18.3 percent in, although the numbers still lag behind the State (22.4 percent) in. Table 2-6a shows the household projections based on the WDOA population projections, assuming 2.60 persons-perhousehold. These projections indicate an increase of over 14,000 household by the year 2030; a 30 percent increase. This is more than twice the increase estimated by the NCWRPC and also reflects a higher increase in household growth relative to the WDOA population projections, which only estimate a population increase of about 19 percent by The high rate of growth in households reflects the trend toward smaller householdsadults. Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 7 05/10/06

8 Table 2-7: Education Attainment, and State State Educational Attainment Percent Percent Percent Percent Less than 9th Grade th to 12 th Grade, No Diploma High School Graduate Some College, No Degree Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Percent high school grad. or higher Percent bachelor's degree or higher Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration, As shown in Table 2-8, median household income for residents was $45,165 in. This is slightly higher than the State, which has an overall median household income of $43,791. Both and the State experienced relative increases in median household income since. Between and, the median income in increased by 45 percent and 49 percent for the State overall. Income figures must be viewed with caution, since the absolute numbers will rise with inflation. However, the relative percentages of residents in each income level indicate that income distribution in is proportionate to levels observed Statewide in both and. Table 2-8: Household Income Levels, State State Income Level Percent Percent Percent Percent Less than $10, $10,000 - $14, $15,000 - $24, $25,000 - $34, $35,000 - $49, $50,000 - $74, $75,000 - $99, $100,000 - $149, $150,000 - $199, $200,000 or More Total Households Median Household Income $31,143 $45,165 $29,442 $43,791 Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration, Employment Characteristics Table 2-9 illustrates the breakdown, by occupation, of the employed population of in. The employed population is defined as people living in the who are 16 years and older. In, the had an employed population of 66,550. Most residents were employed in management and professional, sales and office, and production, transportation and material moving occupations. The high number of jobs in the management and professional sector likely reflects dominance of insurance, health care and government related jobs. Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 8 05/10/06

9 Table 2-9: Occupation by Sector,, Sector Number Percent Management, professional, and 19, related occupations Service occupations 8, Sales and office occupations 17, Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations Construction, extraction, and 5, maintenance occupations Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 14, Total Employed Population 66, Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Trends has grown by 29 percent since 1970, with stronger growth in the decades of the 1970s and s. Overall, the s growth rate was higher than the State of Wisconsin, which grew by 21 percent. The City of Wausau has held between 29 and 33 percent of population in the years since However, Wausau s growth does not always parallel the level of county growth, since the City s growth has been affected by annexation and some large in-migration in the past. According to population projections completed by the NCWRPC, will grow 13 percent, to 142,618 by Projections by the WDOA anticipate more rapid growth, reaching 150,255 by 2030, a growth rate of 19 percent over two decades. Population growth is forecasted to be greatest in the South Central planning sub-area, with 18 percent growth estimated under a moderate growth scenario. The Highway 51, East and Southwest sub-areas are forecasted to have a growth rate of percent, while the Northwest sub-area is projected to decline by 1 percent. When compared to surrounding counties, experienced the highest natural growth increase, but compared lower to several surrounding counties with regard to growth through net migration. Household growth in over the past decade was 14 percent, the same as the State. While the average household size in the (2.60 persons per household) is higher than the State average of 2.50, both experienced declining household sizes since 1970 when had an average household size of 3.27 and the State average was 3.22 persons per household. This reflects a national trend toward smaller households consisting of singles, widowed adults, and empty nesters. is becoming more racially diverse. Between and, the Asian population grew to almost 5 percent of the population, with over 5,700 residents. Other non-white groups held steady or increased slightly over the decade. grew older between and, with an increase in the median age from 32.7 to This trend matches numbers for the State of Wisconsin (32.9 to 36.0) Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 9 05/10/06

10 and likely reflects the aging of the post-world War II baby boom generation. About 83 percent of residents have a high school education, slightly less than the 85.1 percent shown at the State level. Similarly, 18.3 percent of residents hold a bachelor s degree, compared to 22.4 percent for the State. s median income is $45,165, above the State median of $43,791. Between and, median incomes increased by 45 percent in the and 49 percent in the State. Almost 30 percent of all employed residents in work in management and professional sector, while sales and office occupations represent 26.2 percent of all employment and production, transportation and material moving accounts for 21.8 percent. Farming, fishing and forestry occupations, traditional economic activities in the, accounted for only 1.4 percent of total employment in. Issues Accommodating Increased Diversity While diversity per se is not an issue, accommodating a wider range and more specialized needs presents challenges for planning and public service delivery. As becomes more diverse, the needs of particular ethnic or age groups must be taken into account in order to plan more effectively and meet changing public service needs. For example, there is anecdotal information that Southeast Asian families tend to have larger families, with extended families living within the household. These trends may suggest a need for larger housing units or other public policy decisions to meet changing housing needs. Similarly, the Amish and Mennonites in northwestern prefer home schooling over public schools. The and school districts will need to determine, what, if any impact this has on the provision of public school services and facilities. Serving Urban Expansion - The percentage of population within the City of Wausau has remained fairly constant over the last three decades, while the as a whole has grown more rapidly. Communities outside Wausau along the Highway 51 and 29 corridors such as Rib Mountain, the Village of Weston, and the recently incorporated Village of Kronenwetter have experienced strong growth in the last decade. The relative expansion of the urbanized core from Wausau to outlying areas will mean increased demands for public services over a larger area. At the same time, older areas in Wausau already served by public services, may become less dense as a result of net out-migration to fringe areas, thus becoming less able to support higher public service levels as well as in the past. The physical expansion of the urbanized area will result in additional public costs to expand public safety services, transportation, public facilities such as schools, utilities and other needs; all of which will need to be paid for by the region. Analysis of Conditions and Issues (final draft) 10 05/10/06