A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency
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1 A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency Place cover image here Brian Lewandowski Associate Director, Business Research Division June 13, 2017
2 Project Team Colorado Research Team: Brian Lewandowski Richard Wobbekind University of Colorado Leeds School of Business Business Research Division Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade The following organizations were instrumental in the support of this analysis: Anschutz Foundation, El Pomar Foundation, Gates Family Foundation, and Telluride Foundation.
3 National Employment Thousands, Month-over- Month Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, Moody s Analytics, and the BRD.
4 Employment Recovery 10-Year Growth, April 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
5 Employment Recovery 1-Year Growth, April 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
6 Employment Growth Alabama Year-over-Year Change Year-over-Year Growth (2016) 73% of rural counties 87% of urban counties 14 still in decline Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
7 Rural Alabama Covered Employment Jobs 450, ,000 Employment up 51 consecutive months. 350, , , , , ,000 50, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
8 Rural Alabama Covered Wages Annual (4Q Rolling) $ Millions $14,000 $12,000 Year-over-Year +2.6% +330 M $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
9 Alabama Average Wages Annual Rate (4Q) Average Wage (Dollars) $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 Urban $46,500 Rural $37,400 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
10 Resiliency Project: Data and Economic Metrics
11 Nonmetro County Population Growth Average Annual Growth, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties.
12 Nonmetro County Employment Growth Average Annual Growth, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties.
13 Total Employment Indexed Growth, Indexed, 1969= U.S. Urban Recessions Nation Alabama Urban U.S. Rural Alabama Rural 100 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.
14 Alabama Employment Growth Rural v. Urban YoY Percent Change 6% 4% 2% Urban 0% -2% Rural -4% -6% Urban outperformed rural 83% of years Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.
15 Total Employment Rural Alabama Counties Employment 600, , , , , , % Proprietor Employment vs. 21% for the state Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.
16 Employment Growth and Assets Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, COGCC, Energy Information Administration, Colorado Department of Transportation, Colorado Department of Higher Education, Colorado Ski Country USA.
17 Percentage of Population over age 25 with HS Diploma or Equivalent Percentage of Population over age 25 with Less than HS Diploma Education and Employment Growth Colorado Rural Counties 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% -1% 1% 3% 5% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% High School Diploma Ave. Annual Employment Growth, Less than High School Diploma 0% -1% 1% 3% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Percentage of Population over age 25 with Bachelor's Degree or Higher Percentage of Population over age 25 with Graduate Degree 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% Bachelor s Degree or Higher -1% 1% 3% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, Graduate Degree 0% -1% 1% 3% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth,
18 Employment and Prime Working Age Pop Colorado Rural Counties 5% 4% Average Annual Employment Growth 3% 2% 1% 0% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% -1% Prime Working Age Population Share Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
19 Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Agriculture 5% Average Annual Employment Growth, % 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Agriculture Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN.
20 Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Private Services 5% Average Annual Employment Growth, % 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Private Services Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN.
21 Focus Groups Helping Resiliency Demographics Industry diversity Strong leadership Education and healthcare Transportation access Quality of life Broadband Leadership Inhibitors Adequate, affordable housing Lack of available labor Youth and family retention Childcare
22 Alabama Population Total by Age Cohort Percent of Population 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Rural Urban 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year estimates.
23 Population Rural Alabama, Population Total 1,200,000 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000, , , Source: Colorado Demography Office. Includes Baca, Bent, Crowley, Kiowa, Otero, and Prowers counties.
24 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index By State 1, Alaska Hawaii Nevada New Mexico West Virginia Mississippi Virginia Louisiana Wyoming Maryland South Carolina Alabama Delaware Indiana Maine Vermont Wisconsin North Carolina South Dakota Arkansas Kentucky Michigan New Hampshire Oklahoma Massachusetts Montana Rhode Island Washington Ohio Kansas Iowa Connecticut Arizona New York Idaho Florida Pennsylvania New Jersey Tennessee Missouri North Dakota Georgia Minnesota Nebraska Oregon Colorado Illinois Utah California Texas Source: Calculations based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency
A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency Place cover image here Brian Lewandowski Associate Director, Business Research Division June 14, 2017 Project Team Colorado Research Team: Brian Lewandowski Richard
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