Struggling to Hit Escape Velocity MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR

Transcription

1 Struggling to Hit Escape Velocity MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR

2 Households and Businesses Deleverage Change in household and nonfinancial corporate debt, $ bil Household liabilities have fallen by $900 billion since peaking 2 years ago Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Moody s Analytics

3 And the Boost of the Fiscal Stimulus Fades Contribution to real GDP growth, % Recovery Act Cash for clunkers Tax rebate checks Housing tax credit Source: Moody s Analytics

4 European Debt Crisis Slams Confidence S&P 500 index (R) Greek CDS spread (L) Sources: Bloomberg, S&P, Moody s Analytics

5 Especially of Nervous High-Income Households Personal saving rate for families in top fifth of income distribution Sources: Federal Reserve, Moody s Analytics

6 Hiring Is Dormant Number of monthly hires ex Census, ths, SA Layoffs have abated, but hiring has yet to revive, and quits remain extraordinarily low Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7 As Businesses Remain Exceptionally Anxious Small business confidence index, 1986=100 Consumer confidence similarly remains very weak; larger businesses are a bit more upbeat Source: NFIB

8 The Foreclosure Crises Continues on First mortgage loans, ths Strategic defaults, in which the homeowner can reasonably afford the mortgage payment but defaults anyway, are now over 20% of defaults Sources: Equifax, Moody s Analytics

9 And More House Price Declines Are Coming Case-Shiller Home Price Index, 2000Q1=100 Recent changes to HAMP foreclosure mitigation effort are constructive Sources: Fiserv, Moody s Analytics

10 The Federal Reserve Will Remain Aggressive More quantitative easing is planned through June 2011 Sources: Federal Reserve, Moody s Analytics

11 Profits Surge and Jobs Should Follow Job growth, % change yr ago (L) Profit growth lagged 3 qtr (R) Sources: BLS, BEA

12 Given Solid Business Balance Sheets Nonfinancial corporate businesses The quick ratio is at a record high in the data back to 1950 Sources: Federal Reserve, Moody s Analytics

13 Household Debt Burdens Are Falling Fast % of disposable income At the current rate of deleveraging and interest rates, debt service will be back to early 90s lows by this time next year Sources: Federal Reserve, BEA, Moody s Analytics

14 And Credit Conditions Improve days delinquent, all household liabilities, SA Sources: Equifax, Moody s Analytics

15 Pent-Up Demand Is Developing Light vehicle sales, mil Trend sales Sources: BEA, Moody s Analytics

16 And Housing Inventories Are Peaking Vacant homes for sale, for rent, and held off market, ths Housing supply = 600,000 Single-family = 450,000 Multifamily = 100,000 Manufactured = 50,000 Housing demand = 1,350,000 HH formations = 800,000 Obsolescence = 350,000 Second homes = 200,000 Sources: Census, Moody s Analytics

17 Consumers Will No Longer Lead the Way Personal saving rate, 5-yr MA Lower- and middle-income households can no longer borrow and dis-save; high-income households are not prepared for retirement Sources: BEA, Moody s Analytics

18 But Exports Will Pick Up the Slack Unit labor costs in euros, % change, past decade Sources: OECD, Moody s Analytics

19 Policymakers Must Change This Outlook Federal debt-to-gdp ratio The avg federal debt-to-gdp ratio since WWII is 40% Sources: Treasury, Moody s Analytics

20 2 The New York Outlook 20

21 States in Recession Status as of September 2010 data At Risk Expansion Recovery Recession Source: Moody s Analytics

22 Metro Areas in Recession Status as of September 2010 data At Risk Expansion Recovery Recession Source: Moody s Analytics

23 New York s Recovery Is About Average % change since end of U.S. recession in June 2009 Sources: Census Bureau, Fiserv, BLS, U.S. District Courts, Equifax

24 Employment Ex Federal Gov. Northeast States 1-yr vs. 3-mo performance (3-mo. MA) Improving Annualized 3-mo % change Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic Maine Massachusetts Connecticut U.S. New York September March 2010 Expanding 0 Pennsylvania Rhode Island -1 New Jersey Delaware Maryland New Hampshire District Of Columbia Vermont Contracting Note: Size reflects relative total employment -3 % change yr ago Slipping FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 24

25 Employment Ex Federal Gov. Northeast States 1-yr vs. 3-mo performance (3-mo. MA) September 2010 Improving Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic 5 4 District Of Columbia Expanding Annualized 3-mo % change Maine 3 Massachusetts Delaware Vermont Rhode Island 2 New Hampshire Maryland 1 U.S. New York Pennsylvania -1 Connecticut -2 New Jersey Contracting Note: Size reflects relative total employment -3 % change yr ago Slipping FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 25

26 Employment ex Federal Gov. Northeast MSAs 1-yr vs. 3-mo performance (3-mo. MA) Improving Annualized 3-mo % change Middle Atlantic New England South Atlantic Portland Philadelphia Wilmington Boston Bridgeport U.S. Contracting New Haven Manchester New York Washington Note: Size reflects relative total employment Bethesda Nassau Buffalo % change yr ago September March 2010 Expanding Syracuse -1 Providence Albany Pittsburgh -2 Springfield Rochester Baltimore Edison Newark -3 Camden Trenton Hartford -4 Harrisburg Slipping FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM 26

27 Low-Paying Services Driving Recovery Employment, index, Jan08=100 Source: BLS

28 Stymieing Income Recovery Personal income index, 2008Q1=100 Source: BEA

29 Manufacturing Support Is Waning Sources: BLS, NY Federal Reserve

30 But Stronger Canadian Dollar Boosts Exports C$ per US$ (R) Exports from NYC and Buffalo customs districts, $ bil (L) Sources: Census Bureau, Federal Reserve

31 And Tourism Too Leisure/hosp. employment, ths, 3-mo MA (L) NYC hotel occupancy rate, % (R) Sources: Smith Travel, BLS

32 New York s Foreclosure Inventory Is Low Homes in foreclosure, % of owner-occupied housing stock Sources: RealtyTrac, Moody s Analytics, Census Bureau

33 And Fewer Negative Equity Positions Underwater homeowners as % of owner-occupied households 2010Q2 Sources: FDIC, Equifax, Moody s Analytics

34 Will Provide Some Stability to House Prices Case-Shiller Home Price Index, % decline Sources: Fiserv, Moody s Analytics

35 Finance Growing in Boston, Not New York Financial activities employment index, Jan 2007=100 Source: BLS

36 Despite Upturn in Equities Markets New York City (5 boroughs) Sources: S&P, BLS, Moody s Analytics

37 Wall Street Pay and Employment New Normals? Sources: BLS, Securities Industry & Financial Markets Assoc., Moody s Analytics

38 Strong Outlook for Sources: BLS, Moody s Analytics

39 State Government Is Biggest Risk to the Outlook Sources: BLS, Rockefeller Institute of Government

40 121 North Walnut Street Suite 500 West Chester, PA

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