Data Digest: Louisiana August 2011

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Moses Thornton
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1 Data Digest: Louisiana August 211

2 Louisiana s economic performance continues to lag that of the nation. Broad indicators of economic activity in Louisiana show stabilization but little improvement. Comparable U.S. data indicate slow but steady gains. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 21 = 1 12 Coincident Economic Indicator United States Louisiana Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 Total employment in Louisiana is up slightly from postrecession lows, as education and health services and information continue to add jobs. The current level of employment is at mid- 24 levels. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 2, Louisiana Payroll Employment 1,9 1,8 Louisiana lost 9.2% of its payroll employment after Hurricane Katrina. 1,7 1,6 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 All industries except education and health services saw significant job losses during the downturn. Some industries continue to post declines. The information sector lost the greatest percentage of jobs and has seen the highest growth since the trough. Local government Federal & state government Other services Leisure & hospitality Educational & health services Professional & business services Finance, insurance & real estate Information Retail trade Wholesale trade Transportation/Utilities Manufacturing Construction Mining & logging Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Louisiana Percent change trough to present The state as a whole shed 4% of total employment peak to trough, and is up 1.7% since the trough Note: A reading of. in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of. in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 4

Leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and education and health services show positive employment momentum, while

Local government and professional and business services show About Employment Momentum some signs of improvement.

16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 Contracting Local government Professional and business services Construction ti

Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality Education and health services Transportation/Utilities Other services

5 Leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and education and health services show positive employment momentum, while wholesale trade, construction, and federal and state government are contracting. Local government and professional and business services show About Employment Momentum some signs of improvement. 18 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Louisiana Expanding 3-mon nth average annu ualized percent ch hange Contracting Local government Professional and business services Construction ti Federal and state government Wholesale trade Retail trade Mining and logging Finance, insurance, and real estate Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality Education and health services Transportation/Utilities Other services Information Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5

6 Job losses in New Orleans during the downturn were staggering. With the exception of Baton Rouge, other Louisiana metro areas have begun adding jobs. Alexandria, New Orleans, Shreveport, and Houma have had increases of more than 3 percent since their troughs. Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Louisiana Shreveport New Orleans Monroe Lafayette Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough Houma Baton Rouge Alexandria Louisiana Note: A reading of. in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of. in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6

New Orleans, Shreveport, Lafayette, and Alexandria are showing positive employment momentum.

About Employment Momentum 14 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Louisiana

Monroe New Orleans Lafayette Shreveport -2 Houma Contracting Slipping -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6

7 New Orleans, Shreveport, Lafayette, and Alexandria are showing positive employment momentum. Baton Rouge and Monroe are improving. Houma employment momentum is slipping. About Employment Momentum 14 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Louisiana Expanding 12 change 1 Alexandria 3-mo onth average ann nualized percent Baton Rouge Monroe New Orleans Lafayette Shreveport -2 Houma Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 November 21 marked the first month since December 28 that Louisiana s employment momentum was in the expanding quadrant. After slipping in March 211, Louisiana s employment momentum moved back into the expanding quadrant in April. About Employment Momentum Track 6 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Louisiana January 27 Expanding nt change, annua alized 3-mont th average perce Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

9 Since recovering from the effects of Hurricane Katrina in late 25, Louisiana s unemployment rate has been below the U.S. rate. Percent of labor force Hurricane Katrina Unemployment Rate Louisiana United States 6 5 The table shows unemployment rates for metro areas. Current = May 211. Year ago and January 27 are included d for comparison Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Louisiana namely, the U6 figure show that nearly 14 percent of the state s labor force is unemployed or underemployed. The U6 for Louisiana is increasing but remains below comparable U.S. measures. About Unemployment Rates Percent, seasonally adjusted 2 Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6 Q2 211 (Louisiana U6: Q1 211) 15 United States: U6 United States: Unemployment rate Louisiana: U6 Louisiana: Unemployment rate Note: U6=Unemployed + Marginally attached + Part-time economic reasons/civilian labor force + Marginally attached. Louisiana U6 data are through first-quarter 211. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 1

11 Initial claims for unemployment insurance in Louisiana have remained relatively flat since the state began its recovery from the effects of Hurricane Gustav in late week moving average 12,5 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Louisiana July 9, 211 Effects of Hurricane Gustav 1, 7,5 Initial claims averaged just 2,6 per week during The current number of initial claims remains elevated at 5, 2, Source: U.S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 11

12 Sales tax revenue has recovered from recession lows and is posting year-over-year increases. Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average 5 Louisiana Sales Tax Revenue Source: Louisiana Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 12

13 Regional manufacturing activity declined in June, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University, based on decreases for all underlying components except employment. 7 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index The Louisiana component 45 of the Southeast PMI was 56.2 in Note: 5+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College, Business Econometric Center 13

14 Existing home sales have declined after showing improvement in late 29 and early 21. Year-over-year percent change 4 Existing Home Sales Q United States Louisiana Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14

15 New home construction remains near record lows in Louisiana and the United States as a whole. 25, New Residential Home Construction Permits 5, 225, 2, 4, 175, 15, 3, 125, 1, 2, 75, 5, 25, United States (left scale) Lousiana (right scale) 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 15

16 Home prices in Louisiana have increased slightly over the past five years, while those in the United States have declined. Q1 198 = 1 4 Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index through Q FHFA House Price Index: Q yr % change 5-yr % change 1-yr % change USA Louisiana Baton Rouge New Orleans Shreveport Alexandria Houma Lafayette Monroe United States Louisiana Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 16

17 Import activity through the New Orleans District ports has rebounded from the downturn in early 29. Exports through New Orleans District ports continue to accelerate. $ thousands Port Activity Q ,, 4,, 35,,, 3,, 25,, 2,, 15,, 1,, 5,, New Orleans District, imports New Orleans District, exports Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 17

18 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 18

Data Digest: Louisiana. May 2012

Data Digest: Louisiana. May 2012 Data Digest: Louisiana May 2012 Broad indicators of economic activity in Louisiana have accelerated, but at a somewhat lower level than that experienced by the United States as a whole. The level of activity