MEGATREND 1: WAGE GROWTH IS FLAT, BUT DISCRETIONARY INCOME IS UP
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1
2 MEGATRENDS
3 MegaTrends 1. Wage growth is flat, but discretionary income is up 2. The regional economy is recovering but not yet recovered 3. Consumer behavior is changing 4. Tenant behavior is changing 5. Real estate is now an experience, not simply a location 6. Real estate is a preferred investment vehicle, nationally and locally Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
4 MEGATREND 1: WAGE GROWTH IS FLAT, BUT DISCRETIONARY INCOME IS UP
5 T H O U S A N D S O F I N F L A T I O N A D J U S T E D D O L L A R S MegaTrend 1: Wage Growth Flat, Discretionary Income Up Average Annual Wages Washington Metro Area $71 $70 $69 $68 $67 $66 $65 $64 $ Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; March 2015.
6 Jan-2010 Apr-2010 Jul-2010 Oct-2010 Jan-2011 Apr-2011 Jul-2011 Oct-2011 Jan-2012 Apr-2012 Jul-2012 Oct-2012 Jan-2013 Apr-2013 Jul-2013 Oct-2013 Jan-2014 Apr-2014 Jul-2014 Oct-2014 Jan-2015 AVERAGE PRICE PER GALLON FOR REGULAR GASOLINE MegaTrend 1: Wage Growth Flat, Discretionary Income Up Gasoline Prices United States $4.50 $4.00 Peak = $3.96 Consumers Save $265 Billion Per Year Current = $2.07 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $ Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Delta Associates; March 2015.
7 CONSUMER CREDIT IN TRILLIONS MegaTrend 1: Wage Growth Flat, Discretionary Income Up Consumer Credit United States $3.4 $3.2 $3.0 Currently = $3.3 trillion $2.8 $2.6 $2.4 $2.2 Post-Recession Low = $2.5 trillion $2.0 Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Source: Federal Reserve, Delta Associates; March 2015.
8 V A L U E O F R E F I N A N C I N G M O R T G A G E O R I G I N A T I O N S I N T R I L L I O N S MegaTrend 1: Wage Growth Flat, Discretionary Income Up Refinancing Mortgage Originations United States $1.5 $1.1 $1.0 $0.7 $0.5 $ Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Delta Associates; March 2015.
9 I N B I L L I O N S MegaTrend 1: Wage Growth Flat, Discretionary Income Up Annual Retail Sales Washington Metro Area $66 $64 $62 $60 $58 $56 $54 $ Source: Woods & Poole, Delta Associates; March 2015.
10 P E R C E N T A G E C H A N G E MegaTrend 1: Wage Growth Flat, Discretionary Income Up Effective New Condominium Sales Price Change Washington Metro Area % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
11 MEGATREND 2: THE REGIONAL ECONOMY IS RECOVERING, BUT NOT RECOVERED
12 U N E M P L O Y M E N T R A T E A N D A N N U A L I Z E D G D P C H A N G E MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered National Economic Recovery is Complete United States % 10% 51 months: Recession + Recovery 32 months: Recession + Recovery 32 months: Recession + Recovery 81 months: Recession + Recovery 5% 0% % -10% Percent Change in GDP Recession Unemployment Rate Recovery Source: BLS, BEA, Center for Regional Analysis, Global Insight, Delta Associates; March 2015.
13 C O N S U M E R S E N T I M E N T I N D E X MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Consumer Sentiment United States Source: University of Michigan, Delta Associates; March 2015.
14 T H O U S A N D S O F N E W P AY R O L L J O B S MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Payroll Job Growth Washington Metro Area Year Annual Average = 42,600/Year ,000/Year Source: BLS, Delta Associates; March 2015.
15 THOUSANDS OF NEW EMPLOYED RESIDENTS MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Change in Employed Residents Washington Metro Area ,000/Year * Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; March *12 months ending October 2014.
16 THOUSANDS OF NEW EMPLOYED RESIDENTS MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Change in Employed Residents Washington Metro Area Non-Payroll Payroll * Source: BLS, Delta Associates; March *12 months ending October 2014.
17 U N E M P L O Y M E N T R A T E MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Unemployment Rate Large Metro Areas November % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% National Average 5.8% 0% Den Was Hou DFW Bos SF Bay S. Fla NY Chi Phx Atl LA Basin Source: BLS, Delta Associates; March 2015.
18 MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Payroll Job Change by Wage Washington Metro Area H i g h e r - W a g e Higher-Wage M i d - W a g e Mid-Wage L o w e r - W a g e Lower Wage (60) (40) (20) JOB CHANGE IN THOUSANDS Thousands Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; March 2015.
19 MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Payroll Job Change by Wage Washington Metro Area H i g h e r - W a g e Higher-Wage M i d - W a g e Mid-Wage L o w e r - W a g e Lower Wage (60) (40) (20) JOB CHANGE IN THOUSANDS Thousands Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; March 2015.
20 T H O U S A N D S O F N E W P AY R O L L J O B S MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Payroll Job Growth Washington Metro Area Year Annual Average = 42,600/Year 5-Year Projected Average = 40,700/Year : Payroll Jobs Were Responsible for Only 55% of the Increase in Employed Residents District Sub. MD No. Virginia Source: BLS, Delta Associates; March 2015.
21 P AY R O L L J O B C H A N G E E S T I M A T E MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Job Change Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending December ,000 40,000 37,700 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000 (2,200) (14,700) Federal Government Procurement/Contractors* All Other Source: BLS, Delta Associates; March 2015.
22 P E R C E N T A G E P O I N T C H A N G E MegaTrend 2: Regional Economy Recovering, Not Recovered Impact of Sequester on GDP Growth United States % -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -0.6% -0.7% -0.8% -0.9% Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Source: Moody s Analytics, Delta Associates; March 2015.
23 MEGATREND 3: CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IS CHANGING
24 S H A R E O F Y E A R - O L D S W I T H S T U D E N T D E B T MegaTrend 3: Consumer Behavior Changing Student Loan Debt United States % $22 $20 40% $18 35% $16 $14 30% $12 25% $10 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Equifax, Delta Associates; March 2015.
25 S H A R E O F Y E A R - O L D S W I T H S T U D E N T D E B T A V E R A G E S T U D E N T L O A N B A L A N C E O F T O Y E A R - O L D S ( s ) MegaTrend 3: Consumer Behavior Changing Student Loan Debt United States % $22 40% $20 $18 35% $16 30% $14 $12 25% $10 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Equifax, Delta Associates; March 2015.
26 E - C O M M E R C E S A L E S I N B I L L I O N S O F D O L L A R S MegaTrend 3: Consumer Behavior Changing E-Commerce Sales Forecast United States $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 $492 $440 $393 $347 $304 $ Source: emarketer, Delta Associates; March 2015.
27 MegaTrend 3: Consumer Behavior Changing Apartments Source: Mill Creek Residential Trust, Equity Residential, Delta Associates; March 2015.
28 MegaTrend 3: Consumer Behavior Changing Retail Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
29 MegaTrend 3: Consumer Behavior Changing Industrial Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
30 MEGATREND 4: TENANT BEHAVIOR IS CHANGING
31 RENTABLE SQUARE FEET MegaTrend 4: Tenant Behavior Changing Average Square Feet Leased Per Office Worker Washington Metro Area Accenture: Cut office space nearly in half to 90,000 SF GSA HQ: Renovation created an additional 50,000 SF of usable space Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
32 N E T A B S O R P T I O N I N M I L L I O N S O F S F MegaTrend 4: Tenant Behavior Changing Office Net Absorption by Class of Space Washington Metro Area District of Columbia Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia -15 Class A Class B/C Source: Transwestern; March 2015.
33 S H A R E O F O F F I C E S P A C E L E A S E D MegaTrend 4: Tenant Behavior Changing Office Leasing Activity by Type Washington Metro Area % Approximately 14.5 million SF per year of landlord opportunity 60% 57% 40% 43% 20% 0% Renew-In-Place Tenant Move Source: Transwestern; March 2015.
34 MEGATREND 5: REAL ESTATE IS NOW AN EXPERIENCE, NOT JUST A LOCATION
35 P E R C E N T O F P O P U L A T I O N 2 5 T O 3 4 Y E A R S O L D MegaTrend 5: Real Estate As An Experience Share of Population Between 25 to 34 Years Old Largest Metros % 15% 14% 15.7% Arlington County: 28% City of Alexandria: 24% District of Columbia: 23% 13% 12% 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Delta Associates; March 2015.
36 MegaTrend 5: Real Estate As An Experience Mosaic District Merrifield, Virginia Union Market District of Columbia Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
37 MEGATREND 6: REAL ESTATE IS A PREFERRED INVESTMENT VEHICLE BOTH NATIONALLY AND LOCALLY
38 TOTAL RETURN/YEAR MegaTrend 6: Real Estate as a Preferred Investment Investment Alternatives Commercial Real Estate vs. Stocks vs. Bonds 12 Months Ending September % 20% 15% 10% U.S. REAL ESTATE NCREIF Property Index STOCKS S&P 500 BONDS Barclays Capital Government Bond 5% 0% 10 Years 1 Year Source: NCREIF, Delta Associates; March 2015.
39 PERCENTAGE OF PORTFOLIO IN REAL ESTATE MegaTrend 6: Real Estate as a Preferred Investment Institutional Target Allocation for Real Estate 2013 vs % 9.5% 9.4% 9.0% 8.9% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% Source: 2014 Institutional Real Estate Allocation Monitor, Delta Associates; March 2015.
40 MegaTrend 6: Real Estate as a Preferred Investment AFIRE Rankings of U.S. Cities for Real Estate Investment New York 2. Washington, D.C. 3. Boston 4. San Francisco 5. Los Angeles 1. New York 2. San Francisco 3. Houston 4. Los Angeles 5. Washington, D.C. Source: AFIRE, Delta Associates; March 2015.
41 VOLLUME IN BILLIONS MegaTrend 6: Real Estate as a Preferred Investment Investment Sales Washington Metro Area $20 $15 Flex/Industrial Retail Multifamily Office $10 $5 $ Note: Excludes whole- company transactions. Source: Real Capital Analytics, graphic by Delta Associates; March 2015.
42 AVERAGE CAP RATE ALL CLASSES MegaTrend 6: Real Estate as a Preferred Investment Estimate of Year-End Cap Rates Washington Metro Area 9% 8% 7% 6.6% 6.8% 6.3% 6% 5% Office Flex/Industrial Apartments 5.5% Grocery- Anchored SC Source: Delta Associates Annual Market Maker Surveys; March 2015.
43 THE WASHINGTON AREA OFFICE MARKET
44 MILLIONS OF SQUARE FEET The Washington Area Office Market Office Space Net Absorption Year Trailing Average Source: Transwestern; March 2015.
45 MILLIONS OF SQUARE FEET The Washington Area Office Market Office Space Net Absorption mil/yr 10.0 mil/yr 7.8 mil/yr 3.6 mil/yr Annual Average Absorption During Expansion Cycles Source: Transwestern; March 2015.
46 MILLIONS OF SQUARE FEET The Washington Area Office Market Office Space Demand and Deliveries 24 Months Ending December Demand = 7.3 million SF 2.0 Deliveries = = Planned and may deliver by 12/16: 1.0 million SF Under construction: 5.4 million SF 0.0 Northern Virginia Suburban Maryland District of Columbia Total = 6.4 million SF Source: CoStar, Transwestern; March 2015.
47 OVERALL VACANCY RATE The Washington Area Office Market Overall Vacancy Rate 16% 14% 14.6% 12% 13.5% 10% 8% 6% 4% Source: CoStar, Transwestern; March 2015.
48 EFFECTIVE ANNUAL RENT CHANGE The Washington Area Office Market Effective Rent Change 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Average Since 1970 = 2.8% Source: Transwestern; March 2015.
49 THE WASHINGTON AREA APARTMENT MARKET
50 CLASS A APARTMENT UNITS The Washington Area Apartment Market Class A Apartment Annual Absorption Average Since 2008 = 7,041 12,000 11,237 10,000 8,000 Long-Term Average = 6,144 6,000 4,000 2, Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
51 CLASS A APARTMENT UNITS The Washington Area Apartment Market Class A Apartment Annual Absorption Average Since 2008 = 7,041 Annual Average = 9,167 12,000 11,237 10,000 8,000 Long-Term Average = 6,144 6,000 4,000 2, Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
52 EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH The Washington Area Apartment Market Class A Apartment Annual Effective Rent Growth 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -3.0% -4% Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
53 EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH The Washington Area Apartment Market Class A Apartment Annual Effective Rent Growth 10% 8% 6% 4% U.S. 2% 0% -2% -3.0% -4% * Source: Delta Associates; March *REIS
54 MARKET RATE UNITS IN THOUSANDS The Washington Area Apartment Market Class A Apartment Demand and Delivery Projections Three Years Ending December District of Columbia Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia 4.7% 4.0% 4.9% Projected Stabilized Vacancy at December 2017: 4.6% Metro-wide Demand Net Absorption: 9,167/Year = 27,500 Deliveries Planned and may deliver by 12/17: 7,123 units Under construction: 32,131 units Total = 39,254 units Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
55 EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH The Washington Area Apartment Market Class A Apartment Annual Rent Growth 10% 8% Long-Term Average = 4.3% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
56 THE WASHINGTON AREA CONDOMINIUM MARKET
57 NUMBER OF UNITS The Washington Area Condominium Market New Condominiums Actively Marketing or Under Construction Washington Metro Area at Each Year-End 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, , Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
58 ANNUAL EFFECTIVE PRICE CHANGE The Washington Area Condominium Market New Condominium Effective Price Change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 8.8% Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
59 ANNUAL EFFECTIVE PRICE CHANGE The Washington Area Condominium Market New Condominium Effective Price Change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 8.8% 7.0% -8% Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
60 NUMBER OF NEW UNITS SOLD The Washington Area Condominium Market Past and Projected New Condominium Unit Sales 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,476 1, Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
61 NUMBER OF NEW UNITS SOLD The Washington Area Condominium Market Past and Projected New Condominium Unit Sales 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,476 1, Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
62 THE WASHINGTON AREA RETAIL MARKET
63 VACANCY RATE The Washington Area Retail Market Neighborhood/Community Center Vacancy Rate Select Metro Areas Fourth Quarter % National Rate = 10.2% 12% 10% 8% 8.3% 6% 5.7% 4% 2% 0% SF N. Va LA Bos Sub MD Phx Den Hou Dal Chi Atl Source: REIS, Delta Associates; March 2015.
64 AVERAGE RETAIL SPENDING The Washington Area Retail Market Average Retail Spending Per Household Select Metro Areas 2013 $30,000 $25,000 $24,494 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Was SF Bos DFW Hou Phx LA NY Chi Atl Mia Source: BLS, Delta Associates; March 2015.
65 VACANCY RATE The Washington Area Retail Market Vacancy Rate Grocery-Anchored Shopping Centers Washington Metro Area % 5.0% 5.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Inside the Beltway Outside the Beltway Source: Delta Associates; March 2015.
66 Property Sector Review Office: Challenged by the reduced and changing use of space Apartments: Strong demand (almost) offsetting record deliveries Condominiums: Prices rising as new supply remains limited Grocery-Anchored Shopping Center: Strong investor interest Source: Delta Associates; February 2015.
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