The Outlook for the Washington Area and Northern Virginia Economies
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1 9// Northern Virginia Association of Realtors 5 th Annual Economic Summit The Outlook for the Washington Area and Northern Virginia Economies Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University September 5, Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Change in GDP Q 98-Q 99-Q -Q 9-Q Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2 9// Quarterly GDP y Series Revisions vs. Original >> FORECAST > > > ORIGINAL REVISED Data through to Q are original and revised from BEA. Estimates for Q and beyond are from Global Insight, pre-y and post y BEA revisions U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 Forecast > > > > > > GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 9// Pre- and Post-Recession Employment Patterns In The Washington Economy (s) Largest Job kets Job Change y y Washington 7,9 Source: BLS ch Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 9// Annual Job Change Washington MSA s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 9 8 Source: BLS ch Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change District of Columbia s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 9 8 Source: BLS ch Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 9// Annual Job Change Suburban yland s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 9 8 Source: BLS ch Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change Northern Virginia s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 9 8 Source: BLS ch Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 9// Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector y y Washington MSA Source: BLS ch Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Total -7,9 5 8 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector y y Northern Virginia Source: BLS ch Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Total 7 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 9// Unemployment Rate 8. DC 9. U.S.. SMD. MSA. - NVA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted 8. 5 Largest Job kets Ranked by Unemployment Rate y US 9. Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 9// Housing ket Trends Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through ust 8 -Month Moving Average GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 9// Total Active Listings Per Sale ust Each Year PW PG. 5.. LDN ARL DC MONT FFX Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 9// Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 9// 5 Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban yland All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 9// Annual Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Detached Annual Change by Month Sep Nov y Sep Nov y : DC = +9, SM = -., NV =.8 - Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Attached Annual Annual Change by Month Sep Nov y Sep Nov y : DC =.7, SM =., NV = +5. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 9// Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Condos Annual Change Annual Change by Month Sep Nov y Sep Nov y : DC = -.5, SM = -5, NV = Washington MSA Building Permits, -Month Mvg Avg Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
14 9// Near-Term Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change 99- =, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 9- based on Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8// GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 9// Economic Outlook (GRP) 5 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
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