Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook
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1 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Presentation to: Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Mount Vernon Lee Chamber of Commerce Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University April 12,
2 Annual Job Change - Washington MSA 000 s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 110 3,350 3, ,250 3, ,150 3, , ,000 2, ,900 2, , Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb 17- Feb K February-18 Total: 3,278 K 2
3 Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Federal Government State & Local Government Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Activites Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Employment Composition by Sector February 2018 Washington MSA Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics 13.6% 11.1% 10.4% 9.8% 8.3% 6.4% 4.8% 4.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 23.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 3 3
4 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA (Fiscal Years) 82.4 TOTAL = $1,388.5 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov 4
5 (000s) Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Feb 16- Feb K MOTYC Total Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 620 February-17 Total: 752.4K 5
6 (Ranked by Size in 2017) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing -6.6 Job Change by Sector Feb 2017 Feb 2018 Washington MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4.7 (000s) Total = 44,
7 Annual Job Change Northern VA 000 s MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 50 1, ,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 Feb 17- Feb K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1,250 February-18 Total: 1,468 K 7
8 (Ranked by Size in 2017) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector Feb 2017 Feb 2018 Northern Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (000s) Total 32,
9 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area DC 4.1 U.S. 4.1 SMD 3.8 MSA 3.0 NVA 2 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) 9
10 Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year , MSA % Chg Inv Inventory Thousands Feb -7.0% Source: Bright MLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month. 10
11 (000s) (000s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $400 K Feb 2018 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) (Dec Dec) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 2018) NOTE: The sub-state totals do not include Jefferson, WV. 12
13 120,000 Elements of Population Change Washington MSA +2.0% +1.7% +1.5% +1.1% +1.0% +1.0% +1.1% Population Change 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000 23,864 6,843 3,143 37,183 39,715 39,358 41,048 45,410 45,606 44,760 49,016 49,169 47,790 48,651 47,832 44,882 42,616 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase -23,209-31,483-31,492-21, Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V
14 Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation data area Source: Google Maps 14
15 Annual Job Change Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Area Source: Emsi, , GMU Center for Regional Analysis QOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 30,000 29,500 29,000 28,500 28,000 27,500 27,000 26,500 26,000 25,500 25, Q1 Total: 29,546 15
16 Job Change by Sector Southeast Fairfax Q1 Total = 370 Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Source: EMSI Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Govt. Information
17 Employment Composition by Sector Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Area 2018 Q1 Government Education & Health Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality Professional & Business Services Other Services Construction Financial Activites Transportation & Utilities Information Wholesale Trade Manufacturing 3.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 6.2% 7.9% 11.7% 16.4% 19.6% 30.1% Source: Emsi, , GMU Center for Regional Analysis 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 17 17
18 Source: EMSI NAICS Description Largest Industries by Employment: Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Area 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs % Change 2017 LQ Avg. Earnings Per Job 9011 Federal Government, Civilian 4,832 4,879 1% 9.30 $128, Restaurants and Other Eating Places 2,204 2,544 15% 1.30 $23, General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 2,391 2,421 1% 2.82 $74, Local Government, Exc. Education & Hospitals 1,822 2,040 12% 1.97 $95, Federal Government, Military 1,365 1,483 9% 4.09 $82, Grocery Stores % 1.81 $40, General Merchandise Stores, including Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters % 2.23 $39, Automobile Dealers % 2.66 $85, Department Stores (8%) 2.99 $30, Offices of Physicians % 1.18 $130,549 18
19 Source: EMSI Highest Growth Industries (greater than 100 jobs): Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Area NAICS Description 6233 Continuing Care Retirement Communities and Assisted Living Facilities for the Elderly 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs % Change 2017 LQ Avg. Earnings Per Job % 1.98 $36, Special Food Services % 0.76 $29, Home Health Care Services % 1.22 $37, Other Personal Services % 1.63 $25, Offices of Other Health Practitioners % 0.75 $59, Activities Related to Credit Intermediation % 3.55 $166, Other Schools and Instruction % 0.96 $28, Automobile Dealers % 2.66 $85, Other Amusement and Recreation Industries % 1.53 $29, Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services % 1.17 $58,768 19
20 Source: EMSI Industries With Highest Relative Concentration: Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Area NAICS Description 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs % Change 2017 LQ Avg. Earnings Per Job 9011 Federal Government, Civilian 4,832 4,879 1% 9.30 $128, Federal Government, Military 1,365 1,483 9% 4.09 $82, Facilities Support Services % 4.07 $85, Activities Related to Credit Intermediation % 3.55 $166, Department Stores % 2.99 $30, Scientific Research and Development Services % 2.92 $157, General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 2,391 2,421 1% 2.82 $74, Automobile Dealers % 2.66 $85, Home Furnishings Stores % 2.62 $35, Private Households % 2.46 $18,691 20
21 Top Annual Openings Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation Area Title Average Annual Openings * Employment Avg. Hourly Wages Retail Sales Workers 429 2,543 $11.87 Food and Beverage Serving Workers 339 1,732 $11.64 Military occupations 176 1,483 $18.69 Other Personal Care and Service Workers $10.91 Business Operations Specialists 143 1,492 $42.55 Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners 120 1,855 $43.57 Information and Record Clerks $19.39 Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching, and Distributing Workers $16.80 Cooks and Food Preparation Workers $12.83 Building Cleaning and Pest Control Workers $12.47 Nursing, Psychiatric, and Home Health Aides $13.47 Total - All Occupations 3,582 29,546 $29.04 Source: EMSI , *Data represent found online ads active between 2013 and
22 Where are we? We are growing: Diversification at risk Recent job growth across all wage levels Growth will continue in 2018, above 2017, but not a boom Advantages Government is back in business We are more innovative than most people think Access to capital is improving Metro may get fixed Cyber Translational medicine Education / Labor Force Challenges Government is back in business Rescission a real threat??? Cost of living/doing business Mobility Housing Interest rates Understanding changing nature of jobs 22
23 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu 23
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