Market and Economic Briefing. Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook
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1 Market and Economic Briefing Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University March, 17
2 Annual Job Change - Washington MSA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s s Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3,3 3,5 3, 3,15 3, 3,5 3,,95,9, K Jan-17 Total: 3,17 K
3 (s) Federal Government Washington MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) %,5 MOTYC Total Jobs Jan-17 Total: 37K
4 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA (Fiscal Years) 8.4 TOTAL = $1,49.7 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
5 (s) 5 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA % 17 K MOTYC Total Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6 Jan-17 Total: 737.6K
6 (s) 3 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Month Over the Year Change Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs & Mgt. Admin. & Waste Mgt Jan- Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 Employment Composition by Sector Jan 16 Washington MSA 7
8 (Ranked by Size in 16) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing -3 Job Change by Sector Jan 16 Jan 17 Washington MSA (s) Total = 54, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
9 5 Annual Job Change District of Columbia MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s s K Jan-17 Total: 78 K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
10 (Ranked by Size in 16) Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Leisure & Hosp. Other Services State & Local Govt Financial Retail Trade Information Construction Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector Jan 16 Jan 17 District of Columbia (s) Total 9, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 5 Annual Job Change Suburban MD MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s s 1, , K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 86 Jan-17 Total: 988 K
12 (Ranked by Size in 16) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Construction Financial Other Services Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Information Job Change by Sector Jan 16 Jan 17 Suburban Maryland (s) Total 1, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 (Ranked by Size in 16) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Construction Financial Other Services Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Information -7.6 Job Change by Sector Dec 16 Jan 17 Suburban Maryland (s) Total: -3, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
14 Annual Job Change Northern VA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s s Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1,48 1,46 1,44 1,4 1,4 1,38 1,36 1,34 1,3 1,3 1, K Jan-17 Total: 1,44 K
15 (Ranked by Size in 16) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector Jan 16 Jan 17 Northern Virginia -3.4 (s) Total 7, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
16 (Ranked by Size in 16) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector Dec 16 Jan 17 Northern Virginia (s) Total -19, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
17 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area DC 4.7 U.S. 3.9 MSA 3.9 SMD 3.4 NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
18 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Jan 16 Jan % 4.% 3.5% 3.%.5%.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Washington +.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
19 Housing Market Trends
20 (.) (4.) (6.) Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 16, MSA Feb -9.6% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
21 Thousands Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 17, MSA % Chg Inv Inventory FEB -9.6% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
22 Total Listings Per Sale Sep Each Year 5 15 PG 5 - MONT ARL PW FFX LDN DC Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
23 Total Active Listings Per Sale February Each Year Metro Area Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
24 16, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Feb 17 14, 1,, 1-Month Moving Average 8, 6, 4, 4,865 Feb 17, Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
25 , Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Month-Over-Year Change 1,5 1, + 68 Feb , -1,5 -, Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
26 3, Washington MSA Building Permits 17, 3-Month Moving Avg,5, 1,5 Jan 1,58 1, 5 Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27 (s) (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $379.4K Feb 17 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
28 Median House Sales Price (s) 7 1 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 1 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 1 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City) Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
29 Median Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
30 Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA % Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
31 % Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) District of Columbia Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb = $78K
32 Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Suburban Maryland 15 % Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb = $368K
33 Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Northern Virginia % Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb = $46K
34 Outlook
35 4 % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 7 16 (Annual % Change) U.S. % - Washington Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January, 17
36 Employment Change in the Washington MSA (Thousands of Jobs) Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 16) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change = 37,3
37 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (December 16) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change = 37,3
38
39 Long commutes diminish quality of life Proportion of workers with travel time to work of 6 or more minutes New York Washington SF-Oakland Chicago Boston Atlanta Los Angeles Seattle Houston Philadelphia Miami United States Dallas Detroit Minneapolis Phoenix 17.3% 15.3% 14.% 13.5% 1.7% 11.7% 11.% 11.%.9% 9.% 8.6% 8.% 7.4% 5.9% 5.6%.7% % 5% % 15% % 5% Source: US Census Bureau, 14 American Community Survey, Table S8 39
40 Annual change in Metrorail Average Weekday Passenger Boardings Metrorail ridership is in decline 15.%.% 5.% DC Maryland All Metro Alexandria Arlington Fairfax.% -5.% -.% -15.% * Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)
41 Where are we? We are growing: Some diversification Some catch-up Recent job growth across all wage levels Growth will continue in 17, but at a moderating pace Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World Concentration of Leaders Access to capital High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Education Educated Work Force Advanced Occupational Specializations Challenges Drain the swamp/sequester Further market shifts needed Cost of living/doing business Mobility Access to capital Regional branding / cooperation Globally competitive? Understanding changing nature of jobs Productivity
42 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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