Assessing Alexandria/Arlington s Regional Labor Market

Transcription

1 Assessing Alexandria/Arlington s Regional Labor Market Mark C. White, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University March 6, 2017

2 Agenda Key demographic trends The labor force Economic trends The federal government and the federal workforce Sources of workforce demand Ongoing regional challenges Conclusions and takeaways Questions, and hopefully answers

3 Key demographic trends

4 Population (100=2000 Pop.) After a period of flat/negative growth, A-A grew significantly after the recession Northern Virginia Washington, DC MSA Alexandria-Arlington Commonwealth of Virginia District of Columbia 382,000 residents 60 percent in Arlington 40 percent in Alexandria Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates Program

5 Population Change The region has experienced net domestic out-migration since ,000 2,710 5,000 3,871 4,167 4,292 4,827 4,883 3,996 4,216 4,410 4,199 4, ,815-4,068-6,685-5,000 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase -10, Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2015

6 8.9% Percent of Total Population (2015) 10.3% 9.8% 12.6% 17.7% 24.9% 1 out of 4 residents are aged % United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Area Alexandria-Arlington 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

7 Percent of Total Population (2015) 30.0% 25.0% The region has gotten slightly older in the past five years 27.4% 24.9% % 15.0% 15.8% 17.7% 12.8% 12.6% 10.0% 10.2% 8.9% 10.6% 10.3% 8.7% 9.8% 5.0% 0.0% Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

8 9.0% 13.5% 4.5% 13.3% Percent of Total Population (2015) 68.6% The region is less diverse than the DC metro area 80.0% 70.0% United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Area Alexandria-Arlington 60.0% 50.0% *It is important to note that Hispanic or Latino is an ethnicity, and people identifying as such may fit into multiple racial categories. 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% White Black Asian Two or more races Hispanic or Latino* Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

9 The labor force

10 Percent Unemployment Unemployment remains lower than the region, state & nation 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% United States Virginia Washington DC Metro Area Northern Virginia Alexandria-Arlington 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

11 Labor Force Participation Rate (Age 16+) Reflecting demographic trends, LF participation remains very high 90.0% Labor Force Participation Female Labor Force Participation 80.0% 70.0% 71.8% 79.5% 74.9% 60.0% 63.1% 58.1% 66.0% 61.3% 66.5% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Alexandria-Arlington Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

12 Where A-A s workers LIVE Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, OnTheMap, 2014

13 Where A-A s residents WORK Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, OnTheMap, 2014

14 3.8% 7.7% 9.4% 11.3% Percent of population age % 36.4% 2 out of 3 A-A residents (age 25+) have at least a 4-year degree 40.0% United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Area Alexandria-Arlington 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Less than HS HS graduate (incl. Some college, no GED) degree Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Grad. or prof. degree

15 Earnings and education go hand in hand Graduate or professional degree $83,469 $90,904 Bachelor's degree $70,159 $75,025 Some college or associate's degree High school graduate (includes equivalency) Less than high school graduate $37,026 $24,920 $26,689 $21,432 $32,475 $45,910 Alexandria Arlington Washington, DC Metro Area Virginia United States Population 25 years and over with earnings $56,341 $71,206 Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 Median Earnings (2015)

16 Economic trends

17 Per Capita Personal Income (2015 Dollars) Arlington (#26) & Alexandria (#30) are two of America s wealthiest counties $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Arlington Alexandria-Arlington Alexandria Washington, DC Metro Area Virginia United States Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Adjusted for inflation using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index

18 Percent of Total Employment In spite of steady growth, the region has relatively fewer sole proprietors 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% USA Washington, DC MSA Virginia Alexandria Alexandria-Arlington Arlington Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

19 Prof. and business services account for almost 30% of total employment Professional & Business Services 29.7% Government 15.5% Education & Health Services 13.0% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 12.3% Leisure & Hospitality 10.9% Other Services Financial Activities Information 2.6% 4.5% 8.5% Construction 2.1% Manufacturing 1.0% Source: Chmura Economics, Jobs EQ 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Percent of Total Employment

20 The federal government and the federal workforce

21 Percent of Total Employment Federal employment (as a % of total) has declined in Arlington over the past 15 years 30.0% 25.0% Arlington Alexandria-Arlington Alexandria Washington, DC MSA Virginia USA 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

22 Federal workers represent a larger share of total residents, than in many surrounding jurisdictions

23 Roughly 1 in 5 workers living in Alexandria and Arlington work for the Federal Government Civilian workforce 194,495 79% Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS Federal Employee 51, % Civilian 46, % Miltary 4, % Arlington: 30,000 workers (21%) 25,700 households (25%) Alexandria 21,000 workers (21%) 17,900 households (26%)

24 Percent of Total Workforce Federal job opportunities likely attract many younger workers to the region 40.0% Federal Workforce General Workforce 35.0% 30.0% 34% 36% 25.0% 25% 24% 20.0% 21% 15.0% 17% 14% 10.0% 11% 5.0% 8% 3% 3% 4% 0.0% < Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

25 Federal workers living in Alexandria- Arlington tend to earn higher wages Median Household Income (2015) Median Annual Wage (2015) Households with a Federal Employee $142,000 Federal Employees $100,000 All Households $108,100 All Employees $60,000 Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

26 Percent of Total Workforce Federal workers that live in A-A are more likely to use Metro 70.0% 60.0% 63% 58% Federal Workforce General Workforce 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 26% 10.0% 15% 6% 7% 6% 8% 3% 12% 0.0% Motor Vehicle Metro Bus Bike or Walk Other Primary mode of transportation Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

27 Sources of workforce demand

28 Percent of Occupational Employment (2016) A-A has a polarized workforce with relatively few middle-skill jobs 60.0% 50.0% 52.6% 52.2% Current Occupational Employment (2016) Projected Total Openings ( ) 40.0% 33.7% 35.1% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 9.7% 8.8% 4.0% 3.9% 0.0% HS or Less Associates or some college Bachelors degree Graduate degree Entry-Level Educational Requirement Source: Chmura Economics, JobsEQ, 2016 Q2

29 Projected higher paying, growth industries and occupations Industries Mgmt, Sci., & Tech consulting services Computer systems design & related services Arch, Eng, & related services Business, Prof., Labor, Political, & Similar Orgs. Some gov t projected to create opportunity through replacement hiring. Uncertainty remains Occupations IT-related Software developers, computer systems analysts and programmers, network and computers systems administrators Analysts Management, market research Managers General & operations, Comp & info systems

30 Bachelor's or Graduate Degree IT-related occupations are among the most advertised, high-skill occupations Ed. Level Ten Most Advertised Occupations by Education Level Available Jobs (2016) Employers w/ Job Advertisements by Education Level Available Jobs (2016) Computer Occupations, All Other 5,959 ACCENTURE 3,126 Computer Systems Analyst 4,491 Booz Allen Hamilton 2,618 Management Analysts 4,488 Deloitte 2,173 Information Security Analysts 4,386 CACI 1,696 Software Developers, Applications 4,257 Anthem, Inc. 1,095 Network & Computer Systems Admin. 3,886 Inova Health System 1,071 Accountants & Auditors 2,599 General Dynamics 936 Marketing Managers 2,139 Alion Science 901 Managers, All Other 1,785 Engility Corporation 810 Web Developers 1,667 CSRA RESA 781 Source: Help Wanted Online (1/1/16 to 11/28/16) Commonly required skills: Cyber Security, Java, SQL, Linux MS, MS Sharepoint Commonly demanded certifications: Security clearance

31 Healthcare and business services are more average paying industries Growing industries Healthcare: Dentists offices, outpatient care centers, medical and diagnostic labs Business services: Advertising, PR, and related services; Accounting, tax prep, bookkeeping and payroll services Transport: Transit systems, air transportation Middle-skill occupations IT-related Computer-user support specialists, web developers Healthcare Nursing ass ts, LPNs, medical and dental ass ts Office support Paralegals and legal ass ts, bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks Maintenance Auto service techs, aircraft mechs & techs,

32 A s s o c ia te ' s D e g re e IT and nursing occupations are among the most advertised middle-skill occupations In d E d. Le v e l T e n M o s t A d v e rtis e d O ccu p a tio n s b y E d u catio n Le v e l A v a ila b le Jo b s ( 2016) E m p lo y e rs w / Jo b A d v e rtis e m e n ts b y E d u c a tio n Le v e l Commonly required skills: Cyber Security, Java, SQL, Linux MS, MS Sharepoint Commonly demanded certifications: Security clearance, drivers license, CDL, HAZMAT, Nursing A v a ila b le Jo b s ( 2016) C o m p u te r U s e r S u p p o rt S p e ci a l i s ts 1,276 In o v a H e a l th S y s te m 323 W e b D e v e l o p e rs 1,155 F o rw a rd A i r, In c. 205 H e a v y & T ra cto r- T ra i l e r T ru ck D ri v e rs 1,148 V i rg i n i a H o s p i ta l C e n te r 192 R e g i s te re d N u rs e s 892 U S P a te n t a n d T ra d e O f f i ce 151 H a i rd re s s e rs, H a i rs ty l i s t & C o s m e to l o g i s ts 232 IN O V A G e o 130 LP / LV N u rs e s 219 T ra n s p o rta ti o n S e cu ri ty A d m i n i s tra ti o n 106 N e tw o rk & C o m p u te r S y s te m s A d m i n. 153 P e n ta g o n F e d e ra l C re d i t U n i o n 105 In f o rm a ti o n S e cu ri ty A n a l y s ts 150 U n i te d S ta te s A rm y 101 E x e c. S e cre ta ri e s & E x e c. A s s i s ta n ts 136 H a i r C u tte ry 99 G e n e ra l M a i n te n a n ce & R e p a i r W o rk e rs 119 U S D e p a rtm e n t o f S ta te 95 S o u rc e : H e lp W a n te d O n lin e ( 1/ 1/ 16 to 11/ 28/ 16)

33 Hospitality and personal services provide important opportunities for lower-wage workers Industries Restaurants Travel accommodation Continued care facilities Personal care services Grocery stores Services to buildings and dwellings Employment services Occupations Janitors & cleaners, maids and housekeepers Waiters & waitresses Restaurant cooks, food prep workers Cashiers, sales reps, customer service representatives

34 G E D /H ig h S ch o o l In d E d. Le v e l Retail and hospitality employers are prominent advertisers of lower-skill jobs T e n M o s t A d v e rtis e d O ccu p a tio n s b y E d u catio n Le v e l A v a ila b le Jo b s ( 2016) E m p lo y e rs w / Jo b A d v e rtis e m e n ts b y E d u catio n Le v e l Commonly required skills: Food preparation, QC, Bilingual, Tech support, preventative maintenance Commonly demanded certifications: Drivers License, Clearance, OSHA, HAZMAT A v a ila b le Jo b s ( 2016) R e ta i l S a l e s p e rs o n s 1,505 M a rri o tt 495 F i rs t- l i n e S p v rs. o f R e ta i l S a l e s W o rk e rs 1,314 H i l to n W o rl d w i d e 379 F i rs t- l i n e S p v rs. o f F o o d P re p. W o rk e rs 1,002 M a cy 's 353 F i rs t- l i n e S p v rs. o f O f f i ce & A d m i n. W o rk e rs 791 In o v a H e a l th S y s te m 347 C u s to m e r S e rv i ce R e p re s e n ta ti v e s 733 H a rri s T e e te r 294 M a i d s & H o u s e k e e p i n g C l e a n e rs 707 T a rg e t C o rp o ra ti o n 244 G e n e ra l M a i n te n a n ce & R e p a i r W o rk e rs 568 N o rd s tro m 240 M a n a g e rs, A l l O th e r 547 S u n ri s e S e n i o r Li v i n g 220 S to ck C l e rk s & O rd e r F i l l e rs 452 R i tz - C a rl to n 219 S e cu ri ty G u a rd s 451 U n i te d S ta te s A rm y 184 S o u rc e : H e lp W a n te d O n lin e ( 1/ 1/ 16 to 11/ 28/ 16)

35 Ongoing regional challenges Talent attraction and retention Secondary and postsecondary education Transportation and infrastructure Commercial and industrial development Entrepreneurship and innovation

36 A-A has a relatively larger proportion of working age veterans V e te ra n s a s a % o f c i v i l i a n p o p. (A g e ) % o f v e te ra n p o p. a g e d U n it e d S t a t e s 7. 6 % % V irg in ia % % W a s h in g t o n, D C M e t ro A re a 8. 3 % % A le x a n d ria -A rlin g t o n 7. 5 % % S o u rc e : U S C e n s u s B u re a u, A m e ric a n C o m m u n it y S u rve y

37 HS degree Some college, certificate Associate s degree Bachelor s degree Creating opportunities for local talent through career pathways Career Pathways for Computer User Support Specialists/Web Developers Information Security Analysts DC Metro Jobs: 3,566 Current postings: 3,097 Software Developers DC Metro Jobs: 34,238 Current postings: 5,837 Network & Computer Systems Administrators DC Metro Jobs: 13,119 Current postings: 5,269 Graphic Designers DC Metro Jobs: 7,028 Current postings: 310 Marketing Managers DC Metro Jobs: 5,567 Current postings: 2,605 Computer Network Support Specialists DC Metro Jobs: 6,562 Current postings: 14 Web Developers DC Metro Jobs: 6,373 Current postings: 2,688 Computer User Support Specialists DC Metro Jobs: 21,248 Current postings: 4,790 Computer Operators DC Metro Jobs: 1,650 Current postings: 6 Customer Service Representatives DC Metro Jobs: 50,280 Current postings: 2,324 Source: O*Net; Employment from Chmura Economics JobsEQ Average of 4 quarters ending in Q4 2016, Current postings represent online ads in 30 Days between 1/17/2017 and 2/16/2017.

38 Median House Sales Price (000s) per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City) Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

39 On-time graduation vary, but tend to lag for Hispanic students H ig h S ch o o l A ll S tu d e n ts W h ite A f rica n - A m e rica n H is p a n ic Y o rk to w n ( A P S ) 97.0% 100.0% 91.3% 84.6% W a s h i n g to n - Le e ( A P S ) 94.8% 100.0% 98.4% 86.3% W a k e f i e l d ( A P S ) 88.1% 91.8% 93.4% 81.1% T.C. W i l l i a m s ( A C P S ) 82.1% 92.8% 84.6% 70.5% V irg in ia 91.3% 93.9% 88.3% 82.8% S o u rce : V irg in ia D e p a rtm e n t o f E d u ca tio n

40 Less than two-thirds of A-A workers drive to work M e a n s o f T ra n sp o rta ti o n U n i te d W a sh i n g to n A l e x a n d ria - V i rg i n i a to W o rk S ta te s m e tro a re a A rlin g to n C a r, t ru c k o r va n % % % % P u b lic t ra n s p o rt a t io n 5. 2 % 4. 7 % % % W a lk e d 2. 8 % 2. 3 % 3. 5 % 4. 7 % B ic y c le 0. 6 % 0. 4 % 0. 8 % 1. 6 % O t h e r 1. 2 % 1. 3 % 1. 2 % 0. 9 % W o rk e d a t h o m e 4. 6 % 4. 6 % 5. 1 % 5. 2 % S o u rc e : U S C e n s u s B u re a u, A m e ric a n C o m m u n ity S u rv e y

41 Annual change in Metrorail Average Weekday Passenger Boardings Metrorail ridership is in decline 30.0% 15.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% DC DC PG Maryland All All Metro Metro Alexandria Arlington Arlington Fairfax Fairfax MG Maryland 0.0% -10.0% -5.0% -20.0% -10.0% -30.0% -15.0% * Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)

42 Office Vacancy Rate Several factors have led to significant increases in office vacancy rates 25.0% 2011 Q Q3 20.0% 20.3% 19.8% 17.1% 17.4% 17.1% 17.7% 15.0% 15.4% 14.9% 12.4% 12.8% 13.6% 10.0% 9.5% 10.7% 11.0% 5.0% 0.0% Arlington Pr. Georges Fairfax Alexandria Montgomery Loudoun DC Source: CoStar and Arlington Economic Development

43 The region must develop more innovative companies to move beyond being a Federal City The region possesses numerous innovation assets Federal: DARPA, ONR, AFOSR, NSF Campuses of 3 R1 Institutions Growing number of facilities (e.g. 1776, Eastern Foundry, Capitol Post, TechShop) and services (e.g., Mason Enterprise Center, Alexandria SBDC) to support entrepreneurs and growth companies Success will depend on the region s ability to keep emerging companies as they grow and develop

44 Key conclusions Uncertainty about the direction of the federal gov t creates uncertainty about the regional economic and workforce development issues. The region is very much part of the broader DC region. The region is very much a services-based economy at all levels High-end professional and business services Lower wages services but vital services like hospitality Fewer opportunities in the middle. Economic diversification will requires multifaceted, collaborative strategies

45 Questions?

46 Thank you Mark C. White, Ph.D