Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook
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1 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Presentation to: Greater Washington Association of Financial Professionals Mark C. White, Ph.D. Deputy Director Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University April 11,
2 Agenda Broad economic trends The Washington regional economy Emerging trends in federal employment Ongoing challenges 2
3 6.0 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) $17,500 % $17,000 $16,500 $16,000 $15,500 $15,000 $14,500 $14,000 $13, $13,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2009 Dollars ) %
4 US Payroll Jobs Month-to-Month Change (000s) Total (Millions) M Mar +103K Since M Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 The Washington Regional Economy 5
6 2001 GDP*= GDP Trends since Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 95 United States Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, *2009 Chained Dollars 6
7 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area DC 4.1 U.S. 4.0 SMD 3.6 MSA 2.7 NVA 2 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
8 Annual Job Change - Washington MSA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 000 s Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3,350 3,300 3,250 3,200 3,150 3,100 3,050 3,000 2,950 2,900 2,850 2,800 Feb 17- Feb K February-18 Total: 3,278 K
9 3.5% 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb 2017 Feb % 2.5% 2.0% Washington +1.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
10 Professional & Business Services drive the regional economy Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Federal Government State & Local Government Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Activites Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing 11.1% 10.4% 9.8% 8.3% 6.4% 4.8% 4.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 13.6% 23.0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 10
11 Population/Employment (2000=100) Population and employment trends in the Washington Metro Area Population Employment 90 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates, US Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 11
12 (Ranked by Size in 2017) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wholesale Trade Manufacturing -6.6 Job Change by Sector Feb 2017 Feb 2018 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 44, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 The DC Metro is a leader in Cyber-security Washington New York Dallas Chicago Minneapolis Boston Los Angeles Philadelphia Atlanta Charlotte Phoenix SF-Oakland Baltimore St. Louis Denver Information Security Analysts (SOC ) by metro area, ,560 3,400 3,200 3,110 3,030 2,460 2,430 2,360 2,360 2,270 2,170 1,970 1,740 7,380 13, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Source: U.S BLS Occupational Employment Statistics (May 2017) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
14 The Economic Influence of the Federal Government 14
15 (000s) Federal Government Washington MSA (000s) Feb 17- Feb 18-6,600 MOTYC Total Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis February-18 Total: 362K
16 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA (Fiscal Years) 82.4 TOTAL = $1,388.5 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
17 (000s) Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Feb 16- Feb K MOTYC Total Jobs February-17 Total: 752.4K
18 Month over the Year Employment Change (000s) Professional and Business Services Employment and Federal Employment in Washington, DC Metro Area Compared to the Previous Year, Prof. & Business Services Federal Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics 18
19 Additional ongoing challenges 19
20 Long commutes diminish quality of life Proportion of workers with travel time to work of 60 or more minutes New York Washington SF-Oakland Atlanta Chicago Boston Los Angeles Seattle Philadelphia Houston Miami Dallas United States Phoenix Detroit Minneapolis 14.5% 14.1% 13.8% 13.3% 12.2% 11.6% 11.2% 10.7% 9.3% 9.1% 7.6% 7.2% 5.5% 17.8% 17.2% 21.8% Source: US Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, Table S0802 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 20
21 (000s) (000s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $400 K Feb 2018 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 Population Change The region has experienced net domestic out-migration since 2013 Elements of population change in the Washington, DC Metro Area 120, ,000 23,864 6,843 3,143 80,000 41,048 37,183 39,715 39,358 45,410 45,606 44,760 60,000 40,000 20,000 49,016 49,169 47,790 48,651 47,832 44,882 42,616 0 Net Domestic Migration -20,000-23,209-21,543 Net Int'l Migration -31,483-31,492 Natural Increase Total Change -40, Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000 Total Population Change This trend started sooner in places like Arlington- Alexandria and suburban Maryland. People move here for jobs, then choose a place to live in the region. Many factors cause them to consider other metro areas Note the continued importance of Int l migration to the region s continued growth 22
23 Percentage of Population 35% 30% The DC Metro Area s Immigrant Workforce Educational Attainment, Non Citizen, Foreign Born Workers MWCOG Region Non Citizen Foreign Born Workers MWCOG Workforce 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Less than High School High school diploma/ged Source: US Census Bureau ACS 2016, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Associates degree or Some College Bachelors Degree Graduate or Professional Degree 23
24 The DC Metro Area s Immigrant Workforce 24
25 60% 50% 40% Majority of immigrants have been here 10 years or more Year of Entry, Non Citizen Foreign Born Workers MWCOG Region 48.3% 30% 20% 10% 0% 22.2% 17.2% 8.4% 0.2% 0.5% 1.5% 1.8% before or later Source: US Census Bureau ACS 2016, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25
26 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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