The Washington Area s Post- Federally Dependent Economy
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1 Potomac Officers Club Post-Sequestration Summit The Washington Area s Post- Federally Dependent Economy Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University May 14, 213
2 Federal Spending Patterns In the Washington Area
3 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, TOTAL = $1,23.5 Billion $8. B $75.6 B Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report
5 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Tot 212 = 72,3
6 s Federal Employment in the Washington Metro Area, Eisenhower - 5 Kennedy Johnson + 74 Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush Obama Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 (s) Annual Data Jan Apr Jul Federal Government Washington MSA Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Annual Month over Year Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 212 = 377,4
8 Federal payroll declined by.6% between FY 21 and FY 211 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers. Summary for Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, Federal Procurement Outlays declined 8.4% between FY 21 and FY 212. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 21, losing 8,7 jobs or 2.25%.
9 How Has Reduced Federal Spending Affected The Washington Area Economy?
10 New York Houston Los Angeles Dallas Chicago SF-Oakland Miami Atlanta Phoenix Detroit Seattle Boston WASHINGTON Minneapolis Philadelphia Metro Area Comparisons Job Change Largest Metro Areas (s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: Mar 212 Mar 213 Washington + 36, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 (s) Annual Job Change Washington MSA, Annual Data 28 Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 212 Mar 213 Washington MSA (s) Total = 36, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
14 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 213 Mar 213 Washington MSA (s) Total = 23, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 7
15 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 212 Mar 213 District of Columbia (s) Total 2, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
16 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 212 Mar 213 Suburban Maryland -1 (s) Total 11, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 5
17 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 212 Mar 213 Northern Virginia (s) Total 17, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
18 12 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 7.6 U.S. 6.4 SMD 5.2 MSA 4. - NVA 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
19 Washington Area Economic Outlook:
20 Job Growth in the Washington Area By Sector, (in thousands) Sector Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Federal Gov t Education/Health S & L Gov t Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Financial Services Construction Information Ser Other Sectors (3) Total Jobs 3,33.4 3,
21 Major Sources of Job Growth in the Washington Area, (in thousands) Growth Sectors Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Education/Health Construction Sub-Totals 1,224. 1, % Total Totals 3,33.4 3, Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Net New Jobs Occupation Net New % of Total % Change Business and Financial 52, Computer, Math and Sci 33, Health Care (all occup.) 31, Office Admin Support 3, Sales & Related Occup. 29, Personal Care Occup. 23, Management Occupations 22, Education & Training 21, Totals 224, Source: EMSI Inc., GMU Center for Regional Analysis
23 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36, Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight Jan , GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: 212 Total is the sum of sub-regions and does not agree with the Mar 18, 213 published MSA total.
24 % Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
25 217 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 16.2 % Other Federal 9.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 7.5 % Total Federal 29.2% Procurement 12.% Local Serving Activities 37.8% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
26 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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