Current Economic Conditions and the Outlook for the Future

Transcription

1 Current Economic Conditions and the Outlook for the Future Sales Marketing Council Cape Fear Home Builders Association April 16, 2014 William W. (Woody) Hall, Jr. Professor of Economics and Senior Economist H. David and Diane Swain Center for Business and Economic Services Cameron School of Business The University of North Carolina Wilmington

2 Web Site for Slides

3 Population Change Estimate % Change Annual Compound Growth Rate (%) Brunswick County 73, , , New Hanover County 160, , , Wilmington 75, , , Pender County 41,082 52,217 54, Wilmington MSA (New Hanover & Pender Counties) 233, , , North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 9,765, United States 281,421, ,745, ,914, Source: Bureau of the Census, US Department of Commerce;

4 Median Family Income ($ Current) Brunswick County New Hanover County Pender County North Carolina Annual Compound Growth Rate (%) 2012 Percent of State Annual Compound Growth Rate (%) $23,480 $35, $46, $27,320 $40, $50, $23,270 $35, $44, $26,647 $39, $46, Source: US Bureau of the Census.

5 Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rates 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% Wilmington, NC Fayetteville, NC 4.0% Jacksonville, NC 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC- SC Myrtle Beach-Georgetown, SC All US Metro Areas -6.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

6 Unemployment Rates 12% 10% 8% Brunswick County 6% New Hanover County 4% 2% 0% Pender County NC US Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.

7 Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Wilmington MSA NC US 2% 0% Source: Division of Employment Security, NC Department of Commerce; Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.

8 Wilmington MSA Employment Spider Chart 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% % of End-of-Recession Level 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% July 1990/March 1991 April 2001/December 2001 January 2008/June % 0.0% Quarters Before and After End of Recession Source: Division of Employment Security Commission, NC Department of Commerce.

9 Wilmington MSA 3Q2013 Average Monthly Private Sector Employment and Wages Largest NAICS Employment Sectors % of Total Employment % Change from 3Q2012 Wage Average Weekly Wage % of MSA All-Sector Average % of State Sector Retail Trade $ Accommodations & Food Services $ Local Government $ Health Care & Social Assistance $ Administrative & Waste Management $ Construction $ Professional, Scientific & Technical Services $1, Manufacturing $1, Wholesale Trade $ All Sectors 3.2 $ Source: PAGE_DASHBOARD_ANA.

10 Retail Sales Growth Rates 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% Brunswick County 6% 4% 2% New Hanover County Pender County NC 0% Year Ending Jan Source: NC Department of Revenue.

11 Wilmington International Airport Passenger Traffic Growth Rates 2% 1% 0% Boardings -1% -2% Year Ending Jan Deboardings Source: Wilmington International Airport Manager s Office.

12 Port of Wilmington Container Tonnage Growth Rates 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Year Ending Feb Source: NC State Ports Authority.

13 New Hanover County Room Tax Collections Growth Rates 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Year Ending Feb Source: New Hanover County Manager s Office.

14 Tourism Expenditures ($ Millions) Area % Change Rank in State Brunswick County $418.0 $ New Hanover County $425.8 $ Pender County $76.4 $ North Carolina $18,421.0 $19, Source: Division of Tourism, Film and Sports Development, NC Department of Commerce.

15 Existing Single-Family Home Sales (5-Month Centered Moving Average) WRAR BCAR Source: NC Association of Realtors.

16 Average Monthly Sales Prices of Existing Single-Family Homes $260,000 $250,000 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 BCAR WRAR $210,000 $200, Source: NC Association of Realtors.

17 Foreclosure Growth Rates 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Year Ending Mar Brunswick County New Hanover County Pender County NC Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts.

18 Upcoming Events Outlook Conference Financial Services Tuesday, October 14, 2014 Burney Center, UNC Wilmington campus

19 Quarterly Barometer

20 Online Data