ECONOMIC SUMMARY: NATIONAL, STATE AND LOCAL TRENDS

Transcription

1 ECONOMIC SUMMARY: NATIONAL, STATE AND LOCAL TRENDS This report is an overview of economic conditions for the United States, the State of Florida, the Tampa Metropolitan Statistical Area and Hillsborough County (where available). These indicators provide perspective on past economic performance as well as indicators for possible future performance. The report s intention is to provide an overview at the time of its publication. Some of the factors analyzed include: unemployment and employment data; hours worked, labor demand, labor force participation, job loss, and wage data. The spider chart to the right incorporates 13 indicators of labor market conditions and is divided into four segments: 1) Employment Behavior; 2) Confidence; 3) Utilization; 4) Leading Indicators. The chart illustrates changes in the economy from the prerecession peak (December 2007) and the postrecession trough in employment (December 2009). The dark grey dashed line is the precession peak and the light grey dashed line is post-recession trough. Employment Behavior: This category includes indicators related to the hiring activities of employers. This data set includes payroll employment, job openings and hires. Confidence: This category includes indicators of employer and worker confidence in the labor market. This data set includes hiring plans (from the National Federation of Independent Business s jobs report) job availability (from the Conference Board s Consumer Confidence Survey) and quits. Utilization: This category includes measures related to available labor resources. This data set includes unemployment, marginally attached workers, the job finding rate and workers who are part-time for economic reasons. Leading Indicators: This category shows data that typically provide insight into the future direction of overall labor market activity. This data set includes initial claims for unemployment insurance, difficulty in finding jobs and temporary employment services. The chart reflects a return to pre-recession-levels for leading indicators and employer behavior sets. Also, the confidence component has largely returned to pre-recession levels but the utilization section shows limited recovery. Only Unemployment has declined, one aspect of the economy, but marginally attached workers continues to be high. Marginally attached workers include discouraged workers as well as those who have looked for work jobs in the past 12 months or since the end of their last job. So what is the story this chart tells us. First, if you consider the pre-recession and post-recession as markers for the economy, this chart illustrates the economy continues to approach pre-recession levels as measured in three consecutive years. However, there is a disjunction between job openings and firms unable to fill job openings on the one hand, and workers who are marginally attached or who are working part time. From November 2013 to November 2014, marginally attached workers did show a positive increase over the preceding year but they still lag behind the pre-recession peak. Job-to-Job Flows: The chart at the right displays trends among the five hardest hit NAICS sectors (out of 18) during the Great Recession. The chart incorporates statistics on job mobility by primarily using two characteristics: the job to job transition rate, and hires and separations to and from non-employment. 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% Net Employment Growth Among Hardest Hit Industries This chart sums the net employment growth rate and job separation rate. Net Employment Growth: refers to persons moving from one job to another job. This could be a lateral movement or upper mobility for a better job or a move to another industry. Regardless, these are the employed transitioning in the labor market. Job Separation Rate: refers to persons who have exited the labor market and are characterized as in permanent non-employment. These could be people who have been laid off, retirees, people who have voluntarily left the work force or those who have simply given up. 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% Year and Quarter Administrative Construction Manufacturing Mining Professional

2 A COMPARISON OF HILLSBOROUGH EMPLOYMENT FOR THE YEARS: 2009 (TROUGH OF RECESSION) AND Industry CPI Average Annual Employment Average Annual Wages Average Annual Employment Average Annual Wages +/- Construction 30,042 $48,214 31,467 $48,176 - Manufacturing 24,679 $46,921 25,541 $53,003 + Wholesale Trade 27,664 $55,933 28,636 $62,684 + Retail Trade 63,366 $28,839 70,995 $31,003 - Transportation and Warehousing 18,901 $47,192 20,125 $51,269 - Information 18,354 $72,106 16,214 $79,200 - Real Estate and Rental Leasing 11,573 $41,433 13,221 $48,864 + Administrative and Waste Services 46,157 $31,812 49,886 $34,945 - Educational Services 43,831 $40,366 48,240 $43,432 - Health Care and Social Assistance 71,092 $49,177 77,119 $51,511 - Accommodation and Food Service 48,442 $18,764 57,618 $19,755 - Public Administration 26,868 $54,195 24,672 $58,493 - Sources: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2009 Annual Data; 2014 Annual Data. Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers, prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compiled by the Hillsborough County City-County Planning Commission. The above chart compares the Average Annual Employment (AAE) in Hillsborough County from 2009 with the AAE from 2014 based on selected categories in the North American Industrial Classification System. The chart also compares Average Annual Wages (AAW) from 2009 with the AAW from A comparison was made between 2009 Wage data and 2014 Wage data to see if real wages (e.g. purchasing power) kept pace with inflation. Overall, while employment has largely returned to pre-2009 levels wages have not kept pace. For example, the information sector shows negative employment growth with respect to 2009 (-2140), although it retains one of the highest wage brackets among these industries. The comparison with Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows the overall increase did not meet the CPI threshold. So, while more workers are finding employment, those sectors with the lowest average wage have the lowest increase in real, purchasing power. PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT: YEARLY AVERAGE ( ) JURISDICTION National 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% State of Florida 10.3% 8.6% 7.2% 6.3% Hernando County 13.2% 10.9% 9.0% 7.9% Hillsborough County 10.2% 8.5% 7.0% 5.8% Pasco County 11.8% 9.9% 8.1% 6.7% Pinellas County 10.3% 8.5% 7.1% 5.8% Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Statewide and All Areas: MEDIAN HOURLY WAGE FOR SELECTED OCCUPATIONS Median Wage Construction Laborers $12.65 Machinists $18.39 Wholesale and Retail Buyers $25.72 Commercial Drivers $17.86 Nuclear Medicine Technologists $34.47 Database Administrators $41.02 Detectives and Investigators $32.86 Physician Assistants $41.83 Urban and Regional Planners $34.07 Preschool Teachers $11.35 Waitresses $8.94 Roofers $15.42 Office Clerks $12.36 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2013 Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Area Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates for the Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida Metropolitan Area.

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4 Previous Page: Unemployment rates by Census Tracts from the American Community Survey. The American Community Survey is a U.S. Census survey released in 5 and 1 year estimates. Planning Commission staff prepared this map using the five year estimates however caution should be exercised referencing this map due to the Margins of Error (MOE) associated with American Community Survey data. This Page: The following tables and chart include labor force trends in two different formats. The data is the same but prepared in two ways based on user preference. The table below identifies counties and their randing by employment and wage data. COUNTY Largest NAICS Industry Ranked by Annual Avg Employment Location Quotient Largest NAICS Industry Ranked by Total Annual Wages Location Quotient Pasco County, FL Retail Trade 2.24 Health Care and Social Assistance 2.12 Pinellas County, FL Health Care and Social Assistance 1.24 Health Care and Social Assistance 1.43 Polk County, FL Retail Trade 1.18 Health Care and Social Assistance 0.98 Orange County, FL Accommodation and Food Services 1.69 Health Care and Social Assistance 0.11 Miami-Dade County, FL Retail Trade 1.20 Health Care and Social Assistance 1.09 Alachua County, FL Health Care and Social Assistance 1.35 Health Care and Social Assistance 1.69 Lee County, FL Retail Trade 1.47 Health Care and Social Assistance 1.16 Broward County, FL Retail Trade 1.24 Health Care and Social Assistance 0.93 Leon County, FL Health Care and Social Assistance 0.94 Health Care and Social Assistance 1.19 Manatee County, FL Retail Trade 1.45 Health Care and Social Assistance 1.77 Hillsborough County Health Care and Social Assistance 1.03 Professional and Technical Services 1.24 Rankings by NAICS from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2014 Annual Averages. Location Quotient: Ratio of analysisindustry employment in the analysis area to base-industry employment in the analysis area divided by the ratio of analysis-industry employment in the base area to base-industry employment in the base area. LABOR FORCE TRENDS IN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY Labor Force 597, , , , , , ,531 Employment 573, , , , , , ,954 Unemployment 23,656 37,904 62,259 69,275 63,328 53,389 44,577 Unemployment Rate 4.0% 6.3% 10.4% 11.5% 10.2% 8.5% 7.0% Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Statewide and All Areas:

5 $60,000 PERSONAL INCOME SUMMARY: PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (breakdown by select Metropolitan Statistical Areas) $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 United States (Metropolitan Portion) Atlanta-Sandy Springs- Roswell, GA Charlotte-Concord- Gastonia, NC-SC Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington, TX Las Vegas-Henderson- Paradise, NV Miami-Fort Lauderdale- West Palm Beach, FL Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater, FL $25,000 $20, Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Data: Table CA1: Personal Income Summary, Per Capita Personal Income. Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Last updated November 19, $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 PERSONAL INCOME SUMMARY: PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (breakdown by select Bay Area counties) Citrus, FL Hernando, FL Hillsborough, FL Manatee, FL Pasco, FL Pinellas, FL Polk, FL $25,000 $20, Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Data: Table CA1-3: Personal Income Summary, Per Capital Personal Income. Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Last updated May 30, Per Capita Personal Income: Per Capita Personal Income is the mean money income received in the past 12 months computed for every man, woman, and child in a geographic area. It is derived by dividing the total income of all people 15 years old and over in a geographic area by the total population in that area. Note -- income is not collected for people under 15 years old even though those people are included in the denominator of per capita income. This measure is rounded to the nearest whole dollar. Money income includes amounts reported separately for wage or salary income; net self-employment income; interest, dividends, or net rental or royalty income or income from estates and trusts; Social Security or Railroad Retirement income; Supplemental Security Income (SSI); public assistance or welfare payments; retirement, survivor, or disability pensions; and all other income.

6 6.0% CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR SELECTED METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS PERCENT YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGE 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Recession Tampa MSA 3.4% Atlanta MSA 3.3% Dallas MSA 2.9% Miami MSA 4.0% US AVERAGE 4.8% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Annual Consumer Price Index (Not Seasonally Adjusted). Compiled by the Planning Commission. 12 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS (percent year-to-year change) Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Charlotte-Concord- Gastonia, NC-SC Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington, TX Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater, FL -8 Source: United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product in Current Dollars. Percent Change from Preceding Period, All industries total. Last updated: September 23, 2015.

7 CASE-SHILLER HOUSING PRICE INDEX: SELECTED SUNBELT CITIES ( ) Recession TAMPA MIAMI ATLANTA CHARLOTTE LAS VEGAS DALLAS WASHINGTON, DC Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Case-Shiller Housing Price Index (Seasonally Adjusted). Compiled by the Planning Commission. Measures of Credit Stress: This tool was created by the New York Federal Reserve Bank and assumes individuals credit behaviors affect not only their personal situation but also that of their community. To describe the credit behaviors of a community, the Federal Reserve Bank created a 5-tier scale measuring the severity of community credit stress based on 4 quarter payment histories of those residents. This data incorporates detailed Equifax credit reports of a longitudinal quarterly panel of individuals and households. Polk Pinellas Pasco Hernando 11% 9% 10% 11% Measure of Credit Stress Weak Struggling Declining Improved 5% 3% 1% 4% 4% 2% 6% 2% 2% 8% 7% 7% Good Credit 81% 77% 75% 78% The definitions for each of the 5-tiers is as Hillsborough 12% 4% 2% 7% follows: Weak: Person was 60+ days past due during the last 4 quarters. Florida 11% 4% 2% 7% Struggling: Person was 60+ days past due in the 4th quarter and was 60+ days past due in some, but not all, the preceding quarters. United States 8% 4% 1% 6% Declining: Person was 60+ days past due in the 4th quarter but was not 60+ days past 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% due in some during any of the preceding quarters. Improved: Person was 60+ days past due at some point during one of the preceding quarters but not in the 4th quarter. Good: Person was never 60+ days pat due during any of the quarters analyzed. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Community Credit, Measures of Credit Stress. Compiled by the Planning Commission. 77% 80% 74%

8 120 REGIONAL PRICE PARITIES FOR TAMPA MSA All items Goods Rents Other Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Regional Price Parities for the Tampa Metropolitan Statistical Area. Data derived from July 1, Regional Price Parities: Regional Price Parities (RPPs) measure the differences in the price levels of goods and services across states and metropolitan areas for a given year. RPPs are expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for each year, which is equal to The chart above indicates the price parity for the Tampa MSA over a five year period. The chart to the left shows the rankings by state with respect to each one s RPP. Further information can be found on the Bureau of Economic Analysis website: FFor more information contact the Planning Commission: