Economic Outlook: Grand Strand Economy

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1 Economic Outlook: Grand Strand Economy 20 th Annual Economic Growth and Real Estate Summit Pine Lakes Country Club, September 29, 2017 Robert F. Salvino, Ph.D. E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Coastal Carolina University

2 What does the growth look like here?

3 Population and Growth, Select Counties Population, percent change - April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016 United States 4.7% Increase to 323,127,513 South Carolina 7.1% Increase 4,961,119 North Carolina 6.4% Increase 10,146,788 Horry Co 19.7% Increase 322,342 Charleston Co 13.2% Increase 396,484 Greenville Co 10.5% Increase 498,766 New Hanover Co (NC) 10.3% Increase 223,483 Richland Co 6.5% Increase 409,549 Source: U.S. Census

4 What about income and other demographics?

5 Median Household Income, Select Counties (Last 12 months over sample period) United States $53,889 South Carolina $45,483 North Carolina $46,868 Horry Co $43,299 Charleston Co $53,437 Greenville Co $50,540 New Hanover (NC) $50,088 Richland Co $49,131 Higher proportion of low-skilled, seasonal jobs. Source: U.S. Census

6 Demographic Indicators (Last 12 months average) Charleston Co. Horry Co. New Hanover Co. Georgetown Co. Williamsburg Co. Median Value of $243,200 $159,700 $214,300 $159,600 $68,300 Own-Occ Housing BA Degree+ 40.4% 22.8% 36.9% 25.8% 11.3% Persons without health insurance 12.6% 17.4% 12.4% 13.8% 12.9% under age 65 (%) With a disability, under age 65 (%) 7.1% 12.0% 8.9% 10.7% 14.4% Labor Force Participation (age 16+) 65.1% 59.0% 64.8% 51.40% 48.50% Median Household Income $53,437 $43,299 $50,088 $42,835 $28,297 Source: U.S. Census

7 Why is the Grand Strand growing so much faster than other parts of the state? Consider the states of Florida and North Carolina

8 Brunswick County: 18.2% Walton County: 19.7% Plenty of ocean and land with relatively low prices.

9 Some high-priced parts of the country are growing fast but income is also higher Seattle, WA: 15.7% Austin, TX: 16.9%

10 What do they have that we don t? What kinds of jobs?

11 Industry Snapshot in Horry County, South Carolina Current Four Quarters Ending with 2016q4 Avg. Employment Annual Wages Location Quotient % of Total Industry Accom. and Food Svcs. 30,013 $19, % Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 5,351 $33, % Arts, Entertainment, and Rec. 5,337 $19, % Retail Trade 23,377 $25, % Construction 7,995 $40, % Total Basic Industry Jobs (LQ>1) 72,073 $25,684 55% Total - All Industries 130,928 $32, Source: Chmura Analytics

12 Industry Snapshot in Charleston County, South Carolina Avg. Annual Location % of Employment Wages Quotient Total Accommodation and Food Services 33,644 $ 21, % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 5,997 $ 48, % Admin and Support and Waste Mgt. and Remediation 20,599 $ 31, % Public Administration 15,109 $ 58, % Retail Trade 29,936 $ 30, % Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 17,710 $ 72, % Transportation and Warehousing 10,884 $ 45, % Health Care and Social Assistance 36,938 $ 56, % Total Basic Industry Jobs (LQ>1) 170,817 $46,705 37% Total - All Industries 258,088 $46, Source: Chmura Analytics

13 For most of the Grand Strand: Low land values Low real estate prices High service industry component Lower wage jobs Lower taxes Lower cost of living with high quality of life

14 Comparing Real Estate Prices Purchase-Only Mortgage Price Indices Select MSA Areas Charleston Columbia Greenville Myrtle Beach Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

15 Adding to Housing Stock Annual Permits by County Berkeley Charleston Dorchester Georgetown Horry Kershaw Lexington Richland

16 Grand Strand Builds! Annual Permits by Metro Grand Strand Columbia Charleston

17 How long will expansion last? Horry SF Permits

18 Geography matters Georgetown SF Permits

19 Is tourism still the driver?

20 Hotel-Condotel-Campground Occupancy Rate History Forecast Q Q2014Q2014Q2014Q2014Q2015Q2015Q2015Q2015Q2016Q2016Q2016Q2016Q2017Q2017Q2017Q History Forecast Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism

21 Hotel-Condotel-Campground Average Daily Rate History Forecast Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 History Q3 Forecast Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism

22 Air Travel Growth Deplanements 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,

23 Air Travel Growth by Month 160,000 Deplanements by Season 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Means by Season

24 Tourism/Leisure Spending 7,000,000 Horry County Hospitality Fee 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,

25 Some broadening of seasons 7,000,000 Horry County Hospitality Fee by Season 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Means by Season

26 Is effective population increasing throughout the year? Second homeowners?

27 Employment gains more even 150, , , , , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 Horry Employment Level by Season 60,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Means by Season

28 Employment Growth Yearly 150, , , , , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 Horry Employment Level 60,

29 In Conclusion Population and Effective Population increasing Effective population includes second homeowners Lower Price/Higher Value Region This dynamic should persist over the long-run with short-run adjustments along the way Rapid income growth unlikely, keeping real estate prices lower relative to higher income regions Aging demographic remains attracted to this dynamic Millennial migration will continue, slowly but steadily Economy will continue to diversify due to population growth

Waccamaw Regional Economic Outlook

Waccamaw Regional Economic Outlook Fall 2012 November 13, 2012 Dr. Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University Helpful Notes and Reminders Tourism Quarters: To reflect the importance of the seasons, offset