Regional Economic Outlook Forum. Litchfield Beach & Golf Resort March 19, 2014

Transcription

1 Regional Economic Outlook Forum Litchfield Beach & Golf Resort March 19, 2014

2 Annual Waccamaw Region Economic Outlook March 19, 2014 March 19, 2014 Rob Salvino Coastal Carolina University

3 2013 Waccamaw a Region Economic o c Performance +3,900 jobs in 2013 (2.5%) Single Family Permits up 25% Horry: +2,600 jobs (2.25%) Georgetown: +1,000 jobs (3.8%) Williamsburg: jobs (2.3%) Median Home Prices up 7% Multi-family building up 70% Retail sales up 5.6% ($500mil.) Local Tourism Revenue up 5%

4 Percentage Growth in Population o ( )

5 Core Area Population 2012 (Area Counties) , , , , Waccamaw and Brunswick Charleston Berkley Greenville Spartanburg Anderson Richland Lexington

6 Median Household o Income ( average) age) $60,000 $50,000 $53,046 46,450 44,623 50,289 48,438 46,490 43,421 42,472 42,183 $40,000 $30,000 24,174 $20, $10,000 $0 US NC SC Charleston Greenville Brunswick Spartanburg Georgetown Horry Williamsburg

7 900 Region Single Family Building Permits Back to a 400 healthy 300 volume GEORGETOWN HORRY W ILLIAMSBURG Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System

8 Horry County Multi-family Permits Horry MF Permits Horry MF Permits 2001M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M12 Source: HUD State of the Cities Data System

9 Region Retail Sales ($millions) (3 counties) Region Retail Sales Up 5.2% YoY Source: SC Department of Revenue

10 900 County Retail Sales ($ Millions) GEORGETOWN HORRY WILLIAMSBURG Source: SC Department of Revenue

11 Georgetown Port Tonnage (thousands) 1,200 1,094 Port Tonnage 1, Need 1 million tons/year for US Army Corps to consider for dredging g funding Source: SC Ports Authority

12 Horry County Hospitality Fee ($) 15%C 1.5% County-wide on Accommodations, Prepared Foods, Beverages, Admissions i 35,000, % YoY +5.9% YTD 14 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Source: SC Department of Revenue

13 Georgetown County Local Accommodations odat o Tax $2,000, % YoY and YTD $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013

14 Myrtle Beach Airport Passenger Deplanements Airport Deplanements Carriers brought back larger planes and more flights for 2013 and Airport Deplanements M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M01

15 Hotel-Condotel-Campground Average Daily Rate $92.00 $90.00 $88.00 $86.00 $84.00 $82.00 $80.00 $78.00 $76.00 Average Daily Rate $91.19 $90.45 $89.55 $88.89 $87.49 $87.34 $84.20 $84.51 $ Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism

16 Hotel-Condotel-Campground Occupancy Rate (Annual Average % Occupied) Source: Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism

17 Region Employment (3 Counties) Region Employment 168, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Regional Employment Breakout 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Horry Employment Level Georgetown Employment Level Williamsburg Employment Level Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 24 Unemployment Rates US HORRY WILLIAMSBURG SC GEORGETOWN Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Long-Run Growth Factors Tourism Drivable and Affordable Retirement destination Health Care Higher Education Population growth driving new twist Healthy growth over long-run

21 Overall Outlook Favorable Growth for Region over the Long-term + Employment Growth of 2% + Retail Sales Growth of 3.5% + Construction Growth moderating but positive at 10% Interest Rate Risk in Short-run (1-3 years) Mortgage rates to affect housing, but Lower land values, cash sales, population and job growth can offset this effect (How much is uncertain) Core local sectors should remain relatively strong but risky investments in these sectors still vulnerable.

22 Thank you. Questions, comments, suggestions?

23 The Labor Force and Economic Growth Rick Kaglic March 19, 2014

24 Payroll Employment in the U.S Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 1

25 Historical Employment Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 2

26 Historical Productivity Growth Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 3

27 Historical Real GDP Growth Source: BEA/Haver Analytics 4

28 Alternate Measures of Labor Force Utilization Official Plus discouraged Plus part time Source: BLS/Haver Analytics 5

29 Civilian Labor Force Ratios 67 Percent of Population Labor Force Employed February Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 6

30 Reasons for Non-participation Source: Fujita, FRB Philadelphia 7

31 Reasons for Non-participation (Other) Source: Fujita, FRB Philadelphia 8

32 Probabilities of Returning to the Labor Force - Retirees Source: Fujita, FRB Philadelphia 9

33 Probabilities of Returning to the Labor Force - Disabled Source: Fujita, FRB Philadelphia 10

34 Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business Year over Year % Change Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Q % Q % Q % Q % Post-War Average Q4 1.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 11

35 Average Hourly Earnings Month % Change Monthly % Change Feb. 0.4% Jan. 0.2% Dec. 0.1% Nov. 0.2% February 2.2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 12

36 Disposable Personal Income & Expenditures 6 12 Month % Change Real Disposable Personal Income January Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Month over Month % Change November December January Income Expenditures Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 13

37 Real GDP and Contributions to Growth q3 2013q GDP PCE Nres Equip Res Inv Ex Im Gov Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 14

38 Thank You

39 The Economic Situation Economic Outlook Board Waccamaw Region March 19, 2014 Bruce Yandle Economics

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42 The 2014 Economy Slow, but better than 2013 One lane closed Still creating wealth Hot and not so hot S.C. & the knowledge economy

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45 Iran & Syria Venezuela Suriname Sudan 2014: 3.4% growth, vs. 3.0% in 2013 Population growth: 1.1% declining to 0.50% in 2050.

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48 South Carolina Ranks #5 in the U.S. in Globalization Source: The 2012 State New Economy Index Information Technology and Innovation Foundation:

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50 3.14%

51 U.S GDP GROWTH FORECASTS December 2013 Conference Board 2.3% Economy.com 3.1 IMF 2.8 OECD 2.9 OMB 3.4 Morgan Stanley 2.6 Wells Fargo 2.8 Livingston Survey 2.6

52 Expect 2.4% to 3.2% real GDP growth, Recession in %

53 What s holding us back?

54 2017???

55 Feeling Over-Regulated These Days? What about the Evidence? Shall. Must. May not. Prohibited. Required.

56 Industry Regulation Index Oil & Gas Rail Paper Chemical Industry Mean

57 Looking for 8.3 Million Waldos

58 Participation Rate by Educational Attainment For those 25 or Older February 2014 Less than High School, 46.2% Unemployment Rate: 9.8% Unemployment Rate: 6.4% High School, 58.5% Unemployment Rate: 3.4% Unemployment Rate: 6.2% Bachelor's or more, 75.2% Less than Bachelor's, 66.9% Overall Participation Rate: 63.0%

59 Where are they? 9000 U.S. Construction Employment Thousands Percent 42.0 Share of Population in College million million

60 U.S. Working Age Population with Disability Thousands One million increase since Kauffman Entrepeneurship Index ,000 new enterprises each month ,000 each month

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63 WHAT S HOT AND NOT? Federal Budget Housing Employment Retail Sales Manufacturing Banking

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70 2017

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78 Charleston, North Charleston, Summerville Private Employment 1/ /2013 Thousands

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82 70 60 Share of Labor Force in U.S. Production Agriculture Source: 1930 to 2000, Economic Report of President to Jonathan Hughes, American Economic History, , Stephen Broadberry. Agriculture and Structural Change: Lessons from the U.K. Experience in an International Context, 2006.

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88 Looking For Prosperity

89 1.7%

90 16 Average Years of Education U.S. Internal Migration 2012 New Economy Calculation U.S. Average VT MA RI NH HI VA CT NY CA MD NJ IL WA CO WI UT MI OR PA IA ME OH NC MO MT DE NM ND AZ TX FL TN GA ID IN KS SC MI AK NE WY LA NV KY OK SD AL AR MS WV

91 U.S. Average 14.7%

92 S.C. County Population Growth: Cherokee York Oconee Pickens Greenville Spartanburg Union Chester Lancaster Anderson Abbeville Laurens Greenwood Newberry Fairfield Kershaw Chesterfield Marlboro Darlington Lee Dillon Mccormick Saluda Lexington Richland Sumter Florence Marion Horry Edgefield Aiken Calhoun Clarendon Williamsburg Orangeburg Georgetown Barnwell Bamberg Berkeley 35 counties have positive growth. Allendale Hampton Colleton Dorchester Charleston Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Jasper Beaufort Percentage Growth in Population -0.7% % 7% - 0.4% 17% - 7.6% 41% %

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94 S.C.: 1.17%. U.S.: 1.10%

95 Isn t it time we got to the New Economy? Are we headed in the right direction? Where is it?

96 Where is the Knowledge Economy? South Carolina? Education, Investment & Income

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98 45 Beaufort 40 S.C. County Investment in New Plants, & Share of Population with Bachelor's Degree, Richland Charleston 35 Share with Bachelor's Degree Georgetown Lexington Berkeley Aiken Greenville 15 Williamsburg Anderson Spartanburg 10 Horry Larens 5 $- $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,500,000 Summed Investment, , Thousands

99 S.C. County Wages & Educational Attainment $1, A v e r a g e W e e k l y W a g e 2 Q $ $ $ $ $ $ Dillon IV Fairfield Berkeley Aiken Oconee Spartanburg Marlboro Lancaster Greenville Lexington Allendale Chester Darlington Florence Pickens York Jasper Hampton Laurens Georgetown Lee Greenwood Dorchester Williamsburg Edgefield Newberry Marian Saluda III Clarenden Bamberg Colleton Kershaw Horry I II Richland Charleston Beaufort $ Share of Population 25 or older with Bachelor's Degree,

100 S.C. Knowledge Economy, 2013 Cherokee York Pickens Greenville Spartanburg Oconee Union Chester Lancaster Anderson Abbeville Laurens Greenwood Newberry Fairfield Kershaw Chesterfield Marlboro Darlington Lee Dillon Mccormick Saluda Lexington Richland Sumter Florence Marion Horry Edgefield Aiken Calhoun Clarendon Williamsburg Orangeburg Georgetown Barnwell Bamberg Dorchester Berkeley Allendale Hampton Colleton Charleston Jasper Beaufort High Wage, Lower Attainment Knowledge-Entrepreneurial Source: Yandle Economics

101 2014 U.S. Outlook The Nation GDP growth will range from 2.4% to 3.0% across Wealth is being created. Retail sales are rising. Housing is recovering. The unemployment rate will stay in the 6.5% to 7.5% range. Inflation will range 1.0%-1.5%. Interest rates will rise as the Fed tapers. 20-year bond yield will hit 4.10%. 30-year mortgage, 5.00%. Energy prices will remain tame, if not falling. The Region Continued strong population growth, stable employment, rising income. Accelerating recovery of housing and other construction. Strong export sales will continue to strengthen regional growth. Hazards or ghosts from the past that may disturb the outlook. Fed unwinding of massive excess reserve position poses serious risk for interest rate runup and decline in equity prices, which will in turn produce negative wealth effects. A huge deficit that must be dealt with. Taxes? Cut spending? Print money?

102 QUESTIONS?