Hazus: Estimated Damage and Economic Losses. South Carolina United States

Transcription

1 Hurricane Florence Advisory 61, 14 September EST (1500Z) Hazus: Estimated Damage and Economic Losses United States Caution: Due to the level of uncertainty associated with the current advisory (#61), results should be used with caution for initial planning purposes only. The results are based on the official National Weather Service (NWS) advisory. However, significant changes to the track and intensity may occur. Note: Model results produced by Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) and FEMA s HAZUS program, utilizing the FEMA Hazus 4.2 model. Level 1 data. These results are based on the official NWS advisory. Disclaimer: The estimates of social and economic impacts contained in this report were produced using Hazus loss estimation methodology software which is based on current scientific and engineering knowledge. There are uncertainties inherent in any loss estimation technique. Therefore, there may be significant differences between the modeled results contained in this report and the actual social and economic losses following a specific Hurricane. Pacific Disaster Center response@pdc.org FEMA HAZUS program Casey.Zuzak@fema.dhs.gov/Jesse.Rozelle@fema.dhs.gov

2 Quick Assessment Report Scenario Description : Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph) : Forcast/Advisory 92 Regional Statistics Area (Square Miles) Number of Census Tracts Number of People in the Region 30,845 1,098 4,625,364 Scenario Results General Building Stock Occupancy Building Count Dollar Exposure ($ M) Other Total Number of Buildings Damaged 1,833,420 91,921 51,357 1,976, ,550 67,173 44, ,767 Damage State Other Total 6, , < <10 <10 10 < <10 Total 7, ,100 Shelter Requirements Displaced Households (# Households) 100 Short Term Shelter (# People) 50 Economic Loss ( $ Millions ) Capital Stock 465 Property Property Other Property Business Interruption (Income) Total Direct Economic Loss Totals only reflect data for those census tracts/block included in the user's study region. Disclaimer: The estimates of social and economic impacts contained in this report were produced using HAZUS loss estimation methodology software which is based on current scientific and engineering knowledge. There are uncertainties inherent in any loss estimation technique. Therefore, there may be significant differences between the modeled results contained in this report and the actual social and economic losses following a specific Hurricane. These results can be improved by using enhanced inventory data.

3 Hurricane Florence - Peak Wind Gusts (mph) by Census Tract Advisory 61-14SEP Z Tropical Cyclone Positions Ï Ï Ï Ï Ï " ) Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Tropical Storm: mph Tropical Depression: <39 mph Current Position Peak Wind Gusts (mph) U.S. County Boundaries ** Indicates peak wind gusts measured in miles per hour based on the NWS advisory Miles 60 Kilometers The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center. Produced By: Pacific Disaster Center & FEMA Product Created: 9/14/2018 Source Data: ESRI, NOAA, HAZUS Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84 response@pdc.org

4 Hurricane Florence - Debris Generated by County (HAZUS) Advisory 61-14SEP Z Tropical Cyclone Positions Ï Ï Ï Ï Ï " ) Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Tropical Storm: mph Tropical Depression: <39 mph Current Position Total Debris ($K) 0-1,164 1,165-3,683 3,684-9,019 9,020-16,014 16,015-60,200 *Debris includes: brick/wood, concrete/steel and tree debris only in or near right of ways. 143K Tons Total Wind Debris Generated Miles 60 Kilometers The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center. Produced By: Pacific Disaster Center & FEMA Product Created: 9/14/2018 Source Data: ESRI, NOAA, HAZUS Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84 response@pdc.org

5 Hurricane Florence - Displaced Households by County Advisory 61-14SEP Z Storm Positions Ï Ï Ï Ï Ï " ) Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Tropical Storm: mph Tropical Depression: <39 mph Current Position Displaced Households building damage categories depicted in the table are based on FEMA IA program PDA guidance. These are the same as the HAZUS categories:,,, and. 100 Total Households Displaced Miles 60 Kilometers The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center. Produced By: Pacific Disaster Center & FEMA Product Created: 9/14/2018 Source Data: ESRI, NOAA, HAZUS Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84 response@pdc.org

6 Hurricane Florence - Direct Economic Losses for Buildings by County - Advisory 61-14SEP Z Tropical Cyclone Positions Ï Ï Ï Ï Ï " ) Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph Tropical Storm: mph Tropical Depression: <39 mph Current Position Direct Economic Loss ($K) $0 - $3,370 $3,370 - $14,130 $14,130 - $31,976 $31,976 - $56,950 $56,950 - $252,943 ** Indicates losses related to building repair and replacement costs, damage to contents, losses of building inventory, relocation expense, capital-related. $489 Million Total Capital Economic Loss Commecial Property (Billion $) % Other Property (Billion $) 1% Property (Billion $) % The delineation of political boundaries, and associated data shown here do not imply endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center Miles 60 Kilometers Produced By: Pacific Disaster Center & FEMA Product Created: 9/14/2018 Source Data: ESRI, NOAA, HAZUS Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84 response@pdc.org

7 Hazus: Hurricane Global Risk Report Region Name: Hurricane Scenario: Print Date: Friday, Disclaimer: This version of Hazus utilizes 2010 Census Data. Totals only reflect data for those census tracts/blocks included in the user's study region. The estimates of social and economic impacts contained in this report were produced using Hazus loss estimation methodology software which is based on current scientific and engineering knowledge. There are uncertainties inherent in any loss estimation technique. Therefore, there may be significant differences between the modeled results contained in this report and the actual social and economic losses following a specific Hurricane. These results can be improved by using enhanced inventory data.

8 Table of Contents Section Page # General Description of the Region 3 Building Inventory 4 General Building Stock Essential Facility Inventory Hurricane Scenario Parameters 5 Building Damage 6 General Building Stock Essential Facilities Damage Induced Hurricane Damage 8 Debris Generation Social Impact 8 Shelter Requirements Economic Loss Building Losses 9 Appendix A: County Listing for the Region Appendix B: Regional Population and Building Value Data Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 2 of 19

9 General Description of the Region Hazus is a regional multi-hazard loss estimation model that was developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Institute of Building Sciences. The primary purpose of Hazus is to provide a methodology and software application to develop multi-hazard losses at a regional scale. These loss estimates would be used primarily by local, state and regional officials to plan and stimulate efforts to reduce risks from multi-hazards and to prepare for emergency response and recovery. The hurricane loss estimates provided in this report are based on a region that includes 46 county(ies) from the following state(s): - Note: Appendix A contains a complete listing of the counties contained in the region. The geographical size of the region is 30, square miles and contains 1,098 census tracts. There are over 1,801 thousand households in the region and a total population of 4,625,364 people (2010 Census Bureau data). The distribution of population by State and County is provided in Appendix B. There are an estimated 1,976 thousand buildings in the region with a total building replacement value (excluding contents) of 515,767 million dollars (2014 dollars). Approximately 93% of the buildings (and 78% of the building value) are associated with residential housing. Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 3 of 19

10 Building Inventory General Building Stock Hazus estimates that there are 1,976,698 buildings in the region which have an aggregate total replacement value of 515,767 million (2014 dollars). Table 1 presents the relative distribution of the value with respect to the general occupancies. Appendix B provides a general distribution of the building value by State and County. 450,000K Building Exposure by Occupancy Type 400,000K 350,000K 300,000K 250,000K 200,000K 150,000K 100,000K 50,000K Agricultural Religious 0K Table 1: Building Exposure by Occupancy Type Occupancy Agricultural Religious Exposure ($1000) 404,549,899 67,172,874 22,356,269 1,704,922 9,856,759 3,285,647 6,840,880 Percent of Tot 78.44% 13.02% 4.33% 0.33% 1.91% 0.64% 1.33% Total 515,767,250 10% Essential Facility Inventory For essential facilities, there are 108 hospitals in the region with a total bed capacity of 14,840 beds. 1,550 schools, 482 fire stations, 205 police stations and 47 emergency operation facilities. There are Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 4 of 19

11 Hurricane Scenario Hazus used the following set of information to define the hurricane parameters for the hurricane loss estimate provided in this report. Scenario Name: Type: Forcast/Advisory Maximum Peak Gust in Study Region: 92 mph Storm Information: HURREVAC Storm Advisory Download; FILE PATH: ftp://ftp.hurrevac2.com/f_2018.stm User Defined Storm Track Input Data Point Latitude Longitude Time Step (hour) Translation Speed (mph) Radius To Max Winds (miles) Max. Sustained Wind Speed 10m) Cental Pressure (mbar) Profile Parameter Radius to Hurricane Force Winds (miles) , , , , , , , , , Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 5 of 19

12 Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 6 of 19

13 , , , , Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 7 of 19

14 Building Damage General Building Stock Damage Hazus estimates that about 778 buildings will be at least moderately damaged. This is over 0% of the total number of buildings in the region. There are an estimated 7 buildings that will be completely destroyed. The definition of the damage states is provided in the Hazus Hurricane technical manual. Table 2 below summarizes the expected damage by general occupancy for the buildings in the region. Table 3 summarizes the expected damage by general building type Expected Building Damage by Occupancy Table 2: Expected Building Damage by Occupancy None Occupancy Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) 5, , , , , , ,826, , Total 1,968, , Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 8 of 19

15 Table 3: Expected Building Damage by Building Type Building Type None Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Count (%) Concrete 16, Masonry 170, , MH 380, Steel 64, Wood 1,337, , Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 9 of 19

16 Essential Facility Damage Before the hurricane, the region had 14,840 hospital beds available for use. On the day of the hurricane, the model estimates that hospital beds (only 10%) are available for use by patients already in the hospital and those injured by the hurricane. After one week, 10% of the beds will be in service. By 30 days, 10% will be operational. Thematic Map of Essential Facilities with greater than 50% moderate Table 4: Expected Damage to Essential Facilities # Facilities Classification Total Probability of at Least Damage > 50% Probability of Complete Damage > 50% Expected Loss of Use < 1 day EOCs Fire Stations Hospitals Police Stations Schools 1, ,550 Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 10 of 19

17 Induced Hurricane Damage Debris Generation Estimated Debris (Tons) Total Debris 1,402,726 Tree Debris Brick/ Wood Concrete/ Steel 1,369,589 33, K 200K 400K 600K 800K 1000K 1200K 1400K 1600K Hazus estimates the amount of debris that will be generated by the hurricane. The model breaks the debris into four general categories: a) Brick/Wood, b) Reinforced Concrete/Steel, c) Eligible Tree Debris, and d) Other Tree Debris. This distinction is made because of the different types of material handling equipment required to handle the debris. The model estimates that a total of 1,402,726 tons of debris will be generated. Of the total amount, 1,259,100 tons (90%) is Other Tree Debris. Of the remaining 143,626 tons, Brick/Wood comprises 23% of the total, Reinforced Concrete/Steel comprises of 0% of the total, with the remainder being Eligible Tree Debris. If the building debris tonnage is converted to an estimated number of truckloads, it will require 1325 truckloads (@25 tons/truck) to remove the building debris generated by the hurricane. The number of Eligible Tree Debris truckloads will depend on how the 110,489 tons of Eligible Tree Debris are collected and processed. The volume of tree debris generally ranges from about 4 cubic yards per ton for chipped or compacted tree debris to about 10 cubic yards per ton for bulkier, uncompacted debris. Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 11 of 19

18 Social Impact Shelter Requirement Estimated Shelter Needs Displaced Households 96 Temporary Shelter Hazus estimates the number of households that are expected to be displaced from their homes due to the hurricane and the number of displaced people that will require accommodations in temporary public shelters. The model estimates 96 households to be displaced due to the hurricane. Of these, 49 people (out of a total population of 4,625,364) will seek temporary shelter in public shelters. Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 12 of 19

19 Economic Loss The total economic loss estimated for the hurricane is replacement value of the region s buildings. million dollars, which represents 0.09 % of the total Building-Related Losses The building related losses are broken into two categories: direct property damage losses and business interruption losses. The direct property damage losses are the estimated costs to repair or replace the damage caused to the building and its contents. The business interruption losses are the losses associated with inability to operate a business because of the damage sustained during the hurricane. Business interruption losses also include the temporary living expenses for those people displaced from their homes because of the hurricane. The total property damage losses were 489 million dollars. 5% of the estimated losses were related to the business interruption of the region. By far, the largest loss was sustained by the residential occupancies which made up over 97% of the total loss. Table 5 below provides a summary of the losses associated with the building damage. Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 13 of 19

20 50K Total Loss by General Occupancy Income Relocation Rental Wage Building Content Inventory 400K Loss Type by General Occupancy 350K 300K 250K 200K 150K 100K Others 0K Building Content Income Inventory Relocation Rental Wage Table 5: Building-Related Economic Loss Estimates (Thousands of dollars) Category Area Others Total Property Damage Building 354, Content 99, , , , , , Inventory Subtotal 453, , , , , Business Interruption Loss Income Relocation 11, Rental 9, , , , , Wage Subtotal 21, , , Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 14 of 19

21 Total Total 474, , , , , Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 15 of 19

22 Appendix A: County Listing for the Region - Abbeville - Aiken - Allendale - Anderson - Bamberg - Barnwell - Beaufort - Berkeley - Calhoun - Charleston - Cherokee - Chester - Chesterfield - Clarendon - Colleton - Darlington - Dillon - Dorchester - Edgefield - Fairfield - Florence - Georgetown - Greenville - Greenwood - Hampton - Horry - Jasper - Kershaw - Lancaster - Laurens - Lee - Lexington - McCormick - Marion - Marlboro - Newberry - Oconee - Orangeburg - Pickens - Richland - Saluda - Spartanburg - Sumter - Union - Williamsburg - York Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 16 of 19

23 Appendix B: Regional Population and Building Value Data Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 17 of 19

24 Building Value (thousands of dollars) Population Non- Total Abbeville 25,417 1,739, ,023 2,309,127 Aiken 160,099 13,569,288 3,084,762 16,654,050 Allendale 10, , , ,989 Anderson 187,126 15,499,946 4,815,155 20,315,101 Bamberg 15,987 1,291, ,399 1,611,286 Barnwell 22,621 1,487, ,459 2,010,746 Beaufort 162,233 19,460,525 3,344,025 22,804,550 Berkeley 177,843 14,648,982 2,561,709 17,210,691 Calhoun 15,175 1,075, ,809 1,297,272 Charleston 350,209 37,719,156 11,002,920 48,722,076 Cherokee 55,342 3,469,829 1,271,969 4,741,798 Chester 33,140 2,174, ,029 2,942,979 Chesterfield 46,734 2,909, ,387 3,882,839 Clarendon 34,971 2,346, ,798 2,807,911 Colleton 38,892 2,889, ,007 3,778,229 Darlington 68,681 4,594,706 1,601,196 6,195,902 Dillon 32,062 1,696, ,790 2,319,562 Dorchester 136,555 12,315,752 2,003,903 14,319,655 Edgefield 26,985 2,043, ,138 2,601,282 Fairfield 23,956 1,844, ,258 2,247,286 Florence 136,885 10,038,876 4,100,443 14,139,319 Georgetown 60,158 6,258,481 1,695,725 7,954,206 Greenville 451,225 40,658,436 13,075,298 53,733,734 Greenwood 69,661 5,577,549 2,015,634 7,593,183 Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 18 of 19

25 Hampton 21,090 1,183, ,337 1,574,035 Horry 269,291 30,556,378 6,034,428 36,590,806 Jasper 24,777 1,404, ,825 1,854,043 Kershaw 61,697 4,788,104 1,159,330 5,947,434 Lancaster 76,652 5,902,922 1,439,189 7,342,111 Laurens 66,537 4,677,284 1,440,015 6,117,299 Lee 19, , ,635 1,326,706 Lexington 262,391 23,838,187 5,680,782 29,518,969 Marion 33,062 2,043, ,570 2,858,088 Marlboro 28,933 1,651, ,342 2,196,322 McCormick 10, , ,944 1,047,250 Newberry 37,508 3,139, ,347 3,962,591 Oconee 74,273 6,753,025 1,689,226 8,442,251 Orangeburg 92,501 6,143,737 2,296,503 8,440,240 Pickens 119,224 9,454,641 2,618,106 12,072,747 Richland 384,504 37,567,372 10,651,460 48,218,832 Saluda 19,875 1,522, ,625 1,820,062 Spartanburg 284,307 23,592,235 8,785,381 32,377,616 Sumter 107,456 7,873,888 2,524,122 10,398,010 Union 28,961 2,090, ,011 2,742,889 Williamsburg 34,423 1,967, ,201 2,527,006 York 226,073 20,568,501 4,747,669 25,316,170 Total 4,625, ,549, ,217, ,767,250 Study Region Total 4,625, ,549, ,217, ,767,250 Hurricane Global Risk Report Page 19 of 19

26 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Abbeville , , , Total 21, Aiken , , , , Total 130, Page : 1 of 24

27 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Allendale , Total 7, Anderson , , , , , Total 162, Page : 2 of 24

28 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Bamberg , , Total 13, Barnwell , , , Total 18, Page : 3 of 24

29 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Beaufort , , , , Total 171, Berkeley , , , , Total 130, Page : 4 of 24

30 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Calhoun , Total 11, Charleston 1, , , , , , , Total 335, Page : 5 of 24

31 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Cherokee , , , Total 42, Chester , , , Total 26, Page : 6 of 24

32 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Chesterfield , , , Total 37, Clarendon , , Total 27, Page : 7 of 24

33 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Colleton , , , Total 34, Darlington , , , , Total 55, Page : 8 of 24

34 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Dillon , , , Total 23, Dorchester , , , , Total 101, Page : 9 of 24

35 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Edgefield , , , Total 20, Fairfield , , Total 19, Page : 10 of 24

36 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Florence , , , , , Total 115, Georgetown 1, , , , , Total 61, Page : 11 of 24

37 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Greenville 1, , , , , , , Total 395, Greenwood , , , , Total 60, Page : 12 of 24

38 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Hampton , , Total 15, Horry , , , , , Total 290, Page : 13 of 24

39 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Jasper , , Total 18, Kershaw , , , Total 49, Page : 14 of 24

40 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Lancaster , , , , , Total 59, Laurens , , , , Total 54, Page : 15 of 24

41 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Lee , , Total 12, Lexington , , , , , , Total 219, Page : 16 of 24

42 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Marion , , , Total 26, Marlboro , , , Total 20, Page : 17 of 24

43 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None McCormick , Total 9, Newberry , , , Total 32, Page : 18 of 24

44 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Oconee , , , , , Total 69, Orangeburg , , , , , Total 76, Page : 19 of 24

45 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Pickens , , , , , Total 95, Richland , , , , , , Total 335, Page : 20 of 24

46 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Saluda , , Total 16, Spartanburg , , , , , , Total 251, Page : 21 of 24

47 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Sumter , , , , Total 86, Union , , , Total 24, Page : 22 of 24

48 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Square Footage Damage State Probability (%) (Thousand. sq.ft) None Williamsburg , , Total 24, York 1, , , , , , Total 183, Page : 23 of 24

49 Building Damage by General Occupancy: Damage State Probability (%) Square Footage (Thousand. sq.ft) None Total 3,994, Study Region Average 3,994, Totals only reflect data for those census tracts/blocks included in the user's study region and will reflect the entire county/state only if all of the census blocks for that county/state were selected at the time of study region creation. Page : 24 of 24

50 Direct Economic Losses For Buildings: All values are in thousands of dollars Capital Stock Losses Income Losses Cost Cost Inventory Loss Relocation Capital Wages Rental Total Building Contents Loss Ratio Loss Related Losses Income Loss Damage Damage % Loss Loss Abbeville Aiken Allendale Anderson Bamberg Barnwell Beaufort Berkeley 5,494 2, ,128 Calhoun ,018 Charleston 1, ,733 Cherokee Chester Chesterfield 2, ,371 Clarendon 4,449 1, ,968 Colleton Darlington 10,737 3, ,131 Dillon 5, ,550 Dorchester 3,000 1, ,602 Page : 1 of 3

51 Direct Economic Losses For Buildings: All values are in thousands of dollars Capital Stock Losses Income Losses Cost Cost Inventory Loss Relocation Capital Wages Rental Total Building Contents Loss Ratio Loss Related Losses Income Loss Damage Damage % Loss Loss Edgefield Fairfield ,024 Florence 40,683 13, , ,951 Georgetown 13,778 4, ,999 Greenville Greenwood Hampton Horry 194,738 39, , , ,944 Jasper Kershaw 5,971 2, ,108 Lancaster 1,953 1, ,012 Laurens Lee 2, ,635 Lexington 8,439 3, ,559 Marion 12,634 3, ,455 Marlboro 1, ,796 McCormick Newberry Page : 2 of 3

52 Direct Economic Losses For Buildings: All values are in thousands of dollars Capital Stock Losses Income Losses Cost Cost Inventory Loss Relocation Capital Wages Rental Total Building Contents Loss Ratio Loss Related Losses Income Loss Damage Damage % Loss Loss Oconee Orangeburg 3,237 1, ,547 Pickens Richland 22,293 9, ,976 Saluda Spartanburg Sumter 13,802 3, ,793 Union Williamsburg 5,777 1, ,706 York ,608 Total 364, , ,288 1, , ,739 Study Region Total 364, , ,288 1, , ,739 Totals only reflect data for those census tracts/blocks included in the user's study region and will reflect the entire county/state only if all of the census blocks for that county/state were selected at the time of study region creation. Page : 3 of 3