GDP projections for major economies

Transcription

1 GDP projections for major economies Australia 2.6% 2.7% Emerging markets 4.9% 5.2% Euro area 1.2% 1.5% Japan 1.4% 1.% United Kingdom 2.9% 2.5% United States 2.8% 3.% Source: IMF WEO.

2 BRIC growth projected to continue to outstrip OECD Annual GDP growth in 25 PPP Percent 15 1 India China 5 Brazil OECD -5 Russian Federation Source: OECD Economic Outlook.

3 GDP still below pre-crisis levels in some major countries Real GDP annual growth, percent U.S. Germany Japan U.K. Italy Source: Bloomberg.

4 Top cities by commercial sales volume 213 New York London Tokyo Los Angeles Washington, D.C. San Francisco Paris Hong Kong Berlin Chicago $18.1B $17.9B $16.B $13.5B $12.7B $12.5B $27.4B $31.8B $44.B $47.2B Sources: PwC, Real Capital Analytics.

5 Global real estate investment back to pre-crisis levels Direct commercial real estate investment volume US$ billions Source: Jones Lang LaSalle.

6 China real estate has lagged advanced economy recoveries Real estate indices Index (21 = 1) 2 Europe 15 1 Japan U.K. China Source: Bloomberg.

7 Importance of China s property market to wider economy Property market, percent of each category GDP Fixed asset investment Outstanding loans New loans Government revenues Source: Nomura.

8 Reemergence of CMBS Commercial mortgage-backed securities issuance, U.S. and non-u.s. US$ billions 35 3 Non-U.S U.S Source: Bloomberg.

9 Global REITs have recovered losses from the crisis Dow Jones Wilshire Global REIT Total Return Net Index Index, 25 = Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones.

10 U.S. REITs have rebounded strongly Dow Jones Equity REIT Total Return Index Index, 25 = Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones.

11 Affordability for first time buyers dropped off last year First time homebuyer affordability index Source: Bloomberg. Note: Higher index value indicates more first time buyers can afford to buy a home.

12 Affordability still higher than during bubble despite last year s fall Composite homebuyers affordability index Source: Bloomberg. Note: Higher index value indicates more households can afford to buy a home.

13 Growth in construction spending has returned U.S. construction spending year-over-year Percent change year-over-year Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Census Bureau.

14 Growth in construction spending has returned U.S. construction spending year-over-year, residential and commercial Percent change year-over-year 3 2 Residential Commercial Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Census Bureau.

15 Stronger fundamentals for apartment and office tenants Unemployment rates by subgroup Percent unemployment 14 Prime renter group (2-34) Office using occupations Source: Bloomberg.

16 Major markets lead commercial property growth Major markets include Boston, Chicago, L.A., New York, San Francisco, Washington D.C. Price index (Dec 2 = 1) Major markets Non-major Source: Moody s, Real Capital Analytics.

17 Offices lead commercial real estate appreciation Price index (Dec 2 = 1) 2 18 Retail Office Industrial Source: Moody s, Real Capital Analytics.

18 Apartment deals picking up since Great Recession Apartment sales volume US$ billions Source: Bloomberg. Note: Sales volume = 3-month sums based on reports of properties and portfolios of $5 million or more.

19 U.S. apartments outpace core commercial properties Price index (Dec 2 = 1) 25 2 Apartments Core commercial Source: Moody s, Real Capital Analytics.

20 Record low 1-year Treasury yields 1-year Treasury yield, percent Average: 6.6 percent Source: Bloomberg.

21 Global real short-term interest rates month real interest rate, percent Q4 Source: Datastream, IMF, Milken Institute. Note: 3-month interest rates: Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States; Weighted by GDP.

22 Real short-term interest rates Percent Percent Q1 China Japan US Eurozone UK 22 Q1 26 Q1 21 Q1 214 Q1 Sources: Datastream, OECD Statistics, Oxford Economics.

23 Rising rate expectations have leveled off since last summer 1-year sovereign bonds, 1 year forward rates Percent 3.5 USD GBP EUR Source: Bloomberg.

24 Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. stock price performance NYSE, ticker KW Price, US$ Source: Bloomberg.

25 RCS Capital Corporation stock price performance NYSE, ticker RCAP Price, US$ Source: Bloomberg.

26 Increasing role of public, non-traded REITs US$ billions 2 18 $18.6B Investment in public unlisted REITs 1 8 $9.4B REIT IPO capital raised $2.4B $1.4B Sources: Investment Program Association, Robert A. Stanger & Company.

27 U.S. private equity deal flow US$ billions Capital invested (left) Deals closed (right) Count Source: Pitchbook.

28 Global M&A announced volume by sector US$ billions Sources: American Realty Capital, Dealogic.

29 Commercial office prices in greatest technology hubs USD$ per square foot Seattle Austin San Jose Source: Bloomberg.

30 Industrial prices in great technology hubs USD$ per square foot 1,4 Seattle San Francisco Austin San Jose 1,2 1, Source: Bloomberg.

31 Retail prices in great technology hubs USD$ per square foot 7 Seattle San Francisco Austin San Jose Source: Bloomberg.

32 Commercial office prices in notable energy cities USD$ per square foot 3 Denver San Antonio Houston Source: Bloomberg.

33 Retail prices in notable energy cities USD$ per square foot 25 Denver San Antonio Houston Source: Bloomberg.

34 Increasing number of agents reporting foreign clients Percent of REALTORS reporting at least one international client purchasing U.S. property Yes 53% No 47% Yes 76% No 24% Source: National Association of REALTORS.

35 Distribution of international purchasers of California residences Asia & Oceania 54% Europe 16% Latin America & Carribean 12% Canada 11% Africa & Middle East 8% Source: National Association of REALTORS.

36 U.S. immigrant population country of origin Last residence of persons obtaining legal permanent resident status, select region/country, 211 Thousand people Mexico Africa Europe South America China India Source: Office of Immigration Statistics.

37 Top countries investing in the U.S. Shares of top countries of origin to total reported international transactions Canada China Mexico United Kingdom India Argentina Germany Russia Venezuela France Brazil Korea Australia Israel 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 5% 8% 12% 23% Source: National Association of REALTORS.

38 Inbound capital: leading direct investors in the U.S. Inbound fixed direct investment flows, US$ billions $29.9B $21.7B $2.5B $19.2B $16.5B 1-1 Netherlands France United Kingdom Japan Canada Source: Organization for International Investment.

39 Generational groups to shape economic trends Million people 5 Millennials 74 million Gen Xers 62 million Baby boomers 71 million Note: 213 estimates. Sources: Barron s, U.S. Census Bureau.

40 Older populations to grow relative to working age groups Ratio of 65+ years olds to year olds Old age dependency ratio, percent Japan Euro Area United Kingdom United States Source: World Bank.

41 Countries with universal health care Sources: The Atlantic, Wikimedia.

42 Risk spectrum Senior debt Ground-up development