Outlook for Global Real Estate

Transcription

1 Outlook for Global Real Estate

2 Global economy recovering despite uncertainty GDP growth varies across regions and countries Percent 2 15 Emerging economies 1 World 5 Forecast Percent 2 Middle East and North Africa 15 China Advanced economies Euro zone United States Source: International Monetary Fund.

3 Interest rates fell in the aftermath of crisis Interest rate change in selected industrial economies, Percent 7 6 U.K United States Euro zone Sources: Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank, Bank of England.

4 Inflation rose worldwide as liquidity increased Inflation, emerging economies vs. major industrial countries Percent 1 8 Emerging economies Euro zone United States Source: International Monetary Fund.

5 Office market performance varied worldwide Office rent change in major cities, Percent Sao Paulo Hong Kong London New Delhi Madrid New York Dubai Tokyo Source: CB Richard Ellis.

6 Industrial property market recovered slowly Quarterly change in industrial rents worldwide, Percent Source: CB Richard Ellis.

7 Asia led the worldwide recovery in the retail property market Annual change in retail space rent, Percent Asia Pacific Americas EMEA Global Percent Hong Kong Tokyo New York London Paris Source: CB Richard Ellis.

8 Recovery still weak in countries suffering most from housing crisis Annual change in house prices, Percent 2 Spain 15 1 U.K. 5-5 United States Ireland Q1 11Q2 Source: Scotiabank Group.

9 Global CMBS issuance * US$, billions All U.S. All Non-U.S *Year-to-date 28 th September 211 Source: Bloomberg.

10 Construction put-in-place United States Percentage change from previous year 3% 2% Non-residential 1% % -1% -2% -3% Residential -4% Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Analytics.

11 Construction put-in-place United States, by non-residential sub-sector Percentage change from previous year 8% 6% Lodging 4% 2% Office % -2% -4% Commercial -6% -8% Sources: U.S. Census, Moody s Analytics.

12 Delinquency rates United States, by property type Percent 18 Hotel Multifamily Industrial Retail Office Sources: Moody's Investors Service, Moody's Analytics.

13 Capitalization rates United States, by property type Multifamily Office Industrial Retail Hotel Sources: American Council of Life Insurers, Moody's Analytics.

14 Dow Jones Equity REIT Index Total Return Index, January 19= Apr-99 Oct- Apr-2 Oct-3 Apr-5 Oct-6 Apr-8 Oct-9 Apr-11 Source: Moody s Analytics.

15 REIT IPO performance Company IPO Price ($) YOY Change IPO Change IPO Date Hyatt % 74.48% Nov-9 Pebblebrook % 8.5% Dec-9 Chesapeake 2-9.4% % Jan-1 Piedmont % 36.7% Feb-1 Terrino % % Feb-1 Chatham 2-5.1% % Apr-1 Excel % -17.% Apr-1 Hudson Pacific % -16.% Jun-1 Whitestone % 19.2% Aug-1 CoreSite % -3.37% Sep-1 Campus Crest % 11.28% Oct-1 American Assets 2.5 n/a 5.76% Jan-11 Summit Hotel 9.74 n/a 5.13% Feb-11 Preferred Apt 9.75 n/a -2.4% Mar-11 STAG Industrial 13 n/a -6.62% Apr-11 Source: NAREIT: IPO Rundown 211

16 Roaring growth in South America Brazilian mortgage lending growth Brazilian real (billions) Over the past years the Brazilian residential mortgage market has shown strong growth. CAGR +53% Source: European Mortgage Federation Mortgage Info - September 211. SBPE 7 18 FGTS Note: SBPE = Brazilian System of Savings and Loans (public and private); FGTS = Guarantee Fund for Length of Service (mainly public) 27 56

17 Total outstanding residential lending Year-on-year growth rates (%) Note: Please note that figures are calculated on values expressed in local currencies for non-euro area countries. Source: European Mortgage Federation quarterly statistics Q1 211.

18 Gross residential lending Year-on-year growth rates (%) Note: Please note that figures are calculated on values expressed in local currencies for non-euro area countries. Source: European Mortgage Federation quarterly statistics Q1 211.

19 Global investment transaction volume* Recovering from the bottom but stability uncertain *Commercial property only (excludes land development sites). Source: CBRE Research and RCA, as of Q2 211.

20 Fifteen years of Global Conference Join us in 212 for a milestone anniversary April 29 May 2 Los Angeles