Private Equity: Where Risk Meets Opportunity
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- Shonda Farmer
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1 Private Equity: Where Risk Meets Opportunity Panel Detail: Tuesday, April 28, :00 AM - 12:15 PM Speakers: Leon Black, Founding Partner, Apollo Management LP Jim Davidson, Co-Founder and Chairman, Silver Lake Thomas Lee, President and CEO, Thomas H. Lee Capital LLC Ted Virtue, CEO, MidOcean Partners Moderator: Duncan Goldie-Morrison, CEO, Calyon Americas
2 2008: second best year for private equity fundraising, but steep decline may follow Number of funds Amount raised ($ billions) Number of funds Amount raised ($ billions) Buyout/ Corporate 143 $ $244.6 finance Mezzanine 17 $ $8.9 Venture capital 150 $ $33.1 Funds of funds 34 $ $28.7 Secondary and others 19 $ $10.4 Total 363 $ $325.7 Source: Dow Jones Private Equity Analyst.
3 Private equity activities slow globally Deal value announced (US$ millions) Fund raised (US$ millions) United States 368,400 59, , ,900 Western Europe 185,900 88, ,500 96,100 Asia 67,000 52,500 28,700 37,100 Middle East 898 1,700 5,000 6,400 Eastern Europe 27,900 8,000 14,600 5,400 Latin America 4,600 1,200 4,400 4,000 Africa 7,900 2,200 2,300 2,600 Total 662, , , ,500 Sources: Dow Jones, Dealogic.
4 Venture capital investment in the U.S US$ billions Thousands Total venture capital investment (left axis) Number of deals (right axis) Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers.
5 Fed funds rate at historical low Percent Effective federal funds rate Target federal funds rate Apr. 30, 2008: 2% Oct. 8, 2008: 1.5% Oct. 29, 2008: 1% Dec. 16, 2008: % Sources: Federal Reserve, Milken Institute.
6 Corporate bonds were trading at deep discounts Market value to face value, percent 120 AAA corporate BBB corporate High yield Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute.
7 TED Spread reached historical high in 2008 Daily, December 31, 2005 March 31, 2009 Basis points Historical high before 2008 November 1987: 255 bps / / / /2008 Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute. August 20, 2007: 240 bps Aug. 16, 2007: Countrywide takes emergency loan of $11 billion from a group of banks. Average since August 2007: 146 bps October 10, 2008: bps Sept. 16, 2008: Fed rescues AIG for $85 billion. Average since 2005: 93 bps
8 Liquidity freeze: spread between 3-month LIBOR and overnight index swap rate Daily, July 1, 2007 March 31, 2009 Basis points October 10, 2008: 364 bps Average since December 2001: 31 bps 50 Average since July 2007: 94 bps 0 07/ / / / / / / / / / /2009 Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute.
9 Price performance of major bond, equity and commodity indices Index, January 30, 2000 = Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute. Lehman Bond Composite Index S&P GSCI Commodity Index S&P 500 Index
10 Where to invest? Price-to-earning ratio of major equity market indices U.K. China U.S. Japan India Europe Hong Kong Brazil Russia Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute.
11 Does low price-earning ratio imply great investment opportunities? Monthly, January 1954 March 2009 Price-earning ratio for S&P 500 index Average since 1954: 16.4x June 1999: 29.7x March 2009: 11.8x 5 April 1980: 7.0x Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute.
12 Global IPO market froze in first quarter 2009 Amount raised, US$ billions * * 2009 number is annualized. Source: Dealogic.
13 Banks lend less, while businesses and individuals draw upon existing credit lines Quarterly, Q Q US$ trillions US$ billions 8 6 Unused loan commitments (right axis) Change from Q to Q4 2008: -11% Total loans and leases (left axis) Change from Q to Q4 2008: -21% Sources: Moody s Economy.com, FDIC, Milken Institute.
14 Corporate bond issuance started to catch up since Q United States Quarterly corporate bond issuance, US$ billions 300 $260 $268 $ $222 $ $182 $169 $172 $177 $175 $156 $154 $136 $ $170 $ $71 Sources: Dealogic, Milken Institute.
15 U.S. Household assets shrank by 16 percent from its peak in Q US$ trillions 90 Other financial assets Life insurance and pension funds Mutual funds Corporate equities Credit market instruments Deposits Other tangible assets Durable goods Real estate Source: Federal Reserve.
16 Households leveraged up Percent Household financial obligations as % of disposable income (left axis) Percent Mortgage debt as % of disposable income (homeowners, right axis) Sources: Moody s Economy.com, Milken Institute
17 Thomas Lee slides
18 Timing of recovery - ARM resets Alt-A and Option ARM resets in could prolong the housing recession for years Sources: Credit Suisse, IMF.
19 Duncan Goldie-Morrison slides
20 Senior loan default rate by number of issuers and by principal Percent of issuers Percent of principal 9.0% 9.0% 7.5% 6.0% 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% Number of Issuers Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Note: Rates may decline because of changes in the Loan Universe. Sources: S&P/LCD and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Senior loan default rate by number of issuers and amount of principal outstanding (lagging 12 months) Amount of Principal Outstanding 7.5% 6.0% 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0%
21 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan US Baa corporate bond spread 80 year historic Spread (%) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Moody's & Credit Suisse.
22 Corporate bond yields Moody s Baa yields Source: Merrill Lynch index.
23 Historical cost of debt Overall investment grade and high yield bond spreads IG Index HY Index Source: Merrill Lynch index. 0 01/02/97 01/02/99 01/02/01 01/02/03 01/02/05 01/02/07 01/02/09
24 Historical cost of debt % Overall investment grade and high yield bond yields IG Index HY Index 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 01/02/97 01/02/99 01/02/01 01/02/03 01/02/05 01/02/07 01/02/09 Source: Merrill Lynch index.
25 Historical cost of debt (Continued) 1600 Bond spreads by rating A-Index BBB-Index BB-Index Source: Merrill Lynch index. 0 01/02/97 01/02/99 01/02/01 01/02/03 01/02/05 01/02/07 01/02/09
26 Historical cost of debt (Continued) Bond yields by rating 18.0% 16.0% A-Index BBB-Index BB-Index 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 01/02/97 01/02/99 01/02/01 01/02/03 01/02/05 01/02/07 01/02/09 Source: Merrill Lynch index.
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