CHINA AND HONG KONG RESIDENTIAL MARKETs overview

Transcription

1 CHINA AND HONG KONG RESIDENTIAL MARKETs overview Press Conference by Knight Frank 9 Jun

2 CHINA RESIDENTIAL MARKET Presented by David Ji, Director and Head of Research & Consultancy, Greater China 2

3 MACRO ECONOMIC FACTORS Changes of China s GDP, Household Income & CPI 25% GDP Income CPI 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Source: CEIC / IMF / Knight Frank Research 3

4 MAJOR RESIDENTIAL POLICIES Jun 08, 2012 Jul 06, 2012 The People's Bank of China cut the one-year RMB benchmark deposit and 1-3 year loan interest rates by 25 basis points each. The central government emphasises the continual implementation of differentiated mortgage loan incentives for homebuyers, tax policies and buying restrictions in some cities. May-Sep, 2014 Most secondary cities announced the abolishment of home purchase restrictions, but housing purchase restrictions policies remained firm in tier 1 cities 30 Sep, 2014 Second homebuyers can place the same 30% down-payment as first-time homebuyers, if they have fully repaid the mortgage loan on their first home. 30 Mar, 2015 The minimum mortgage requirement for second-home buyers was lowered from 60% to 40% Mar Jun Sep Jan Mar Jun Sep Jan Mar Jun Sep Dec Jan May 22, 2012 Developers of vacant land with developed area less than 1/3 of total construction area, land with investment capital outlay less than 25% of total investment amount and land on which construction suspended for over a year have to pay 20% of land cost. Mar 01, 2013 A 20% capital gains tax is imposed on pre-owned home sales. This is exempted if a homeowner sells the property after over 5 years from its purchase and the apartment is the only one owned by the family. The down-payment ratio for a qualified family s second home is raised to 70%. Nov 22, 2014 The People's Bank of China cut the one-year RMB benchmark deposit and loan interest rates by 25 basis points and 40 basis points respectively. 4

5 OVERALL HOUSE PRICE SLOWING DOWN SINCE BEGINNING OF % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% % % -6% -8% Change in average prices for new homes in 70 cities Mar 2013, May - Sep 2014, Additional tax on Abolishing of second hand sale, home purchase stricter mortgage restrictions in most requirement cities Jun 2012, Benchmark interest rate cut by 25 basis points Mar 30, 2015, Year on year Month on month Relaxation of mortgage requirement Source: National Bureau of Statistics / Knight Frank Research 5

6 residential PRICE DECLINES in 70 major Chinese cities Monthly residential price change in 70 major Chinese cities 70 No. of cities that recorded no house price change No. of cities that recorded house price increase No. of cities that recorded house price declines Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Source: National Bureau of Statistics / Knight Frank Research 6

7 Housing sales value RMB (million) Housing sales by value Y-o-Y growth Growth (%) 2,000,000 The first four months in 2015 saw 3.7% drop YoY. 80% 1,750,000 70% 1,500,000 60% 1,250,000 50% 1,000,000 40% 750,000 30% 500,000 20% 250,000 10% 0 0% , % -500,000-20% -750,000-30% Source: National Bureau of Statistics / Knight Frank Research 7

8 DEVELOPERS PULLED BACK RESIDENTIAL STARTS Floor space (million sqm) 1,600 First Half Second Half In 2014, China residential housing starts fell 14.4% year on year. 1,400 1,200 1, Source: National Bureau of Statistics / Knight Frank Research 8

9 LUXURY HOME PRICES remained stable thanks to shortage Q = 100 Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Hong Kong Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q Source: Knight Frank Research 9

10 The 10 best-performing Mainland Cities after policy easing Rank Mainland cities Month-on-month change 1 Shenzhen 1.8% 2 Beijing 0.8% 3 Shanghai 0.7% 4 Wenzhou 0.7% 5 Hangzhou 0.4% 6 Guangzhou 0.4% 7 Jinhua 0.4% 8 Shijiazhuang 0.3% 9 Nanjing 0.3% 10 Wuhan 0.3% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China / Knight Frank Research Note: Monthly price change for newly constructed homes in April

11 Residential sales surged after policy easing 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Jan - March (Y-o-y change) Jan - April (Y-o-y change) -20% Source: National Bureau of Statistics / Knight Frank Research 11

12 NUMBER OF MONTHS NEEDED TO CLEAR INVENTORY Number of months Source: National Bureau of Statistics / Knight Frank Research 12

13 China residential property market outlook in 2015 City / sector Urban districts Sub-urban districts H H forecast 2015 full year forecast 2015 full year forecast First-tier cities Second-tier cities Luxury 2% 3% 4-6% Mass 1% 2% 2-3% Luxury 1% 1% 2-3% Mass 2% 2% 4-5% 1-2% 5-7% Source: Knight Frank 13

14 Hong Kong Residential Market Presented by Thomas Lam Senior Director, Head of Valuation & Consultancy

15 The most expensive locations for luxury homes Monaco Hong Kong London New York Singapore Sydney Shanghai Paris Los Angeles Beijing Moscow Tokyo Mumbai Dubai HK$36, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 HK$ per sq ft Source: Knight Frank 15

16 The most expensive locations for luxury homes Rank City Residential price (HK$ per sq ft) Year-on-year change 1 Monaco 42, % 2 Hong Kong 36, % 3 London 34, % 4 New York 21, % 5 Singapore 18, % 6 Geneva 18, % 7 Sydney 17, % 8 Shanghai 15, % 9 Paris 14, % 10 Los Angeles 12, % Source: Knight Frank 16

17 A review of major property policies in Hong Kong Oct 13, 2010 Introduced "My Home Purchase Plan" Nov 20, 2010 Introduced Special Stamp Duty (SSD) on all residential transactions Jun 10, 2011 Lowered LTV ratios for residential mortgages, applicable to oversea buyers Oct 12, 2011 Announced the resumption of Home Ownership Scheme Jan 1,2013 Saleable area of the second-hand residential units are forced to be disclosed. Feb 22, 2013 Introduced Double Stamp Duty (DSD) rates to all property types. Lower LTV ratios for nonresidential mortgages by 10 pp Mar 1, 2013 Scrapped the application list system, scheduled land sales every quarter starting from April April 29, 2013 The Residential Properties (First-hand Sales) Ordinance came into full effect Feb, 2015 Lowered LTV ratios for self-used residential properties valued under HK$7 million from 60-70% to 60% Jun Feb 24, 2010 Max. stamp duty rate increased to 4.25%. No deferred stamp duty payment allowed Aug 13, 2010 Lowered maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, required banks to stress-test mortgage applicants Jun Jun Sep 2012 Introduced "Hong Kong Land for Hong Kong People" policy Oct 29, 2012 Introduced Buyer s Stamp Duty (BSD) on non-permanent residents and corporate buyers. SSD extended and the rates are raised April 29, 2013 The Residential Properties (First-hand Sales) Ordinance which aims to shield buyers from dishonest sales practices came into full effect Jun May, 2014 Government proposed to relax the "six-month" timeframe for owners who wish to upgrade their flats. Buyers do not need to pay DSD if their old unit is sold within six months of signing a formal agreement 17

18 Timeline of major changes in Stamp Duty rates No SSD 20 Nov 2010 SSD 15% 6 months 10% 6-12 months 5% months 27 Oct 2012 BSD 15% for non-pr & company purchases SSD 20% 6 months 15% 6-12 months 10% months 23 Feb 2013 DSD Original standard rates generally doubled BSD 15% for non-pr & company purchases SSD 20% 6 months 15% 6-12 months 10% months 13 May 2014 DSD Exemption period extend to start after official contract BSD 15% for non-pr & company purchases SSD 20% 6 months 15% 6-12 months 10% months Nov Jan Jan Oct Jan Feb Jan May Note: the above is a simplified summary 18

19 Applicability of various new stamp duties Property type SSD BSD DSD Maximum LTV Residential u u u 40%-60%* Office u 30%-40% Retail u 30%-40% Industrial u 30%-40% Car park spaces u 30%-40% Note: 1) The above is a simplified summary mortgage applicants whose residential properties are non-self-use or company held, or whose income are mainly derived from outside HK have lower maximum LTV ratios. 2) On 27 February 2015, the maximum LTV ratio for self-use residential properties valued under HK$7 million is lowered from 60-70% to 60%. 3) If the principal income of the mortgage loan applicant is not derived from Hong Kong, the maximum LTV ratio for residential properties valued over HK$10 million is 40%. 4) For all non-self-use residential properties, the maximum LTV ratio is 50%, regardless of property values. 19

20 Hong Kong Residential sales volume & price Residential Sales (no. of units) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, SARS Property Sales Transaction Property Price Index Price Index (1999 = 100) 2008 Global Financial Tsunami 2011 June HKMA further mortgage tightening 2010 Nov SSD 2013 Feb DSD + Lower LTV 2012 Oct BSD+SSD extended and intensified 2013 Apr Firsthand Sales Ordinance 2015 Feb Lowered LTV ratio for self-used homes under HK$7 million 2014 May DSD exemption period extended Source: Rating and Valuation Department / Knight Frank 20

21 Luxury & mass residential price index Index (Jan 2007 = 100) 300 Luxury Mass In the first five months of 2015, luxury residential prices have increased by 1.4%, while mass residential price have increased by 7% Source: Knight Frank / Public sources 21

22 Primary & secondary residential sales No of transactions 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,931 * 2015 figures until April Source: Land Registry, Knight Frank 115,092 Primary 135,778 84,462 88% 86% 90% 87% Secondary 81,333 84% 50,676 78% 63,807 74% 12% 14% 10% 13% 16% 22% 26% 67,000 75% F 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 25% 0% 22

23 Share OF RESIDENTIAL SALES TRANSACTIONS BY CONSIDERATION No. of units 90,000 < HK$1 m HK$1 m - < HK$2 m HK$2 m - < HK$3 m HK$3 m - < HK$5 m HK$5 m - < HK$10 m > HK$10 m 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, * > HK$10 million 9% 9% 10% 12% 11% * As at 2015 Q1 Source: Land Registry, Knight Frank 23

24 DISTRIBUTION OF RESIDENTIAL SALES TRANSACTIONS BY Flat size No. of units 90,000 <400 sq ft sq ft sq ft 801-1,200 sq ft >1,200 sq ft 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, * < 600 ft 67% 71% 69% 72% 71% * As at 2015 Q1 Source: MWPIC, Knight Frank 24

25 Share of Mainland buyers in HK luxury residential market 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Share of Mainland buyers of Hong Kong private residential units worth HK$12 million or above Share of overall sales consideration Share of overall sales volume 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H * Source: Public sources / Knight Frank Note: Estimated figures 25

26 Share of Mainland buyers in HK luxury residential market 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 80% 30% 20% 50% 10% 0% 17% > 12 million Top 30 deals Top 10 deals Note: % of luxury transactions in first 6 months of 2015 Source: Public sources / Knight Frank Top deals by consideration 26

27 GENERAL AFFORDABILITY Home Price (HK$ Million) Average Home Price Affordability Ratio Affordability Ratio Note: Affordability Ratio= monthly mortgage payment / average private household monthly income, assuming 20-year repayment period Source: Rating and Valuation Department / Knight Frank 27

28 Impact on Affordability if Mortgage rate changes Mortgage rate changes + 0 bps (2.5%, current level) +100 bps (3.5%) +200 bps (4.5%) +300 bps (5.5%) +400bps (6.5%) Monthly repayment (for every HK$1 million) % increase from current level HK$ 5,300 - HK$ 5, % HK$ 6, % HK$ 6, % HK$ 7, % Note: Assume home price remains unchanged at current level and a 20-year repayment period Source: Knight Frank 28

29 Hong Kong residential yield under pressure 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Source: Rating and Valuation Department / Knight Frank 29

30 COMPLETION OF RESIDENTIAL UNITS IN HONG KONG No. of units 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20, average completion = 24, average completion = 28, average take-up = 20, estimated average completion = 19,300 15,000 10, average completion = 11,700 5,000 0 Source: Rating and Valuation Department / Knight Frank 30

31 estimated residential COMPLETION from 2015 to 2020 New Territories 60,000 Yuen Long (52%) 14,000 (12%) Kowloon 38,000 (33%) Kai Tak 12,000 (10%) Islands 4,300 (3%) Hong Kong Island 13,700 (12%) Tseung Kwan O 15,000 (13%) 116,000 units in total from 2015 to 2020, ~ 19,300 units / year Source: Knight Frank, Public sources 31

32 Hong Kong residential prices and rents outlook Property sector 2015 forecasts Luxury residential prices 2-5% Luxury residential rents 1-2% Mass residential prices 5-10% Mass residential rents 5-10% 32

33 Q & A

34 Hong Kong 4/F Shui On Centre 6-8 Harbour Road Wanchai Hong Kong Tel Fax Shanghai 17/F Eco City 1788 West Nanjing Road Jing an District Shanghai PRC Tel Fax Macau Suite A, 16th Floor Edificio Great Will No 665 Avenida da Praia Grande Macau Tel Fax Taipei 5/F, No 1 Songzhi Road Xinyi District Taipei City 110 Taiwan (ROC) Tel Fax Beijing Suite 302, Tower E1, Oriental Plaza No 1 East Chang An Avenue Dong Cheng District Beijing PRC Tel Fax Guangzhou Unit 3306, Tower B, China Shine Plaza 9 Linhe Xi Road Tianhe District Guangzhou PRC Tel Fax Disclaimer This document and the material contained in it is general information only and is subject to change without notice. All images are for illustration only. No representations or warranties of any nature whatsoever are given, intended or implied. Knight Frank Research will not be liable for negligence, or for any direct or indirect consequential losses or damages arising from the use of this information. You should satisfy yourself about the completeness or accuracy of any information or materials. Copyright This document and the material contained in it is the property of Knight Frank Research and is given to you on the understanding that such material and the ideas, concepts and proposals expressed in it are the intellectual property of Knight Frank Research and protected by copyright. It is understood that you may not use this material or any part of it for any reason other than the evaluation of the document unless we have entered into a further agreement for its use. This document is provided to you in confidence on the understanding it is not disclosed to anyone other than to your employees who need to evaluate it. Knight Frank Research