Global Trends in Housing Finance
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1 Global Trends in Housing Finance Dr. Michael Lea Housing Finance Workshop for South Africa November 2008 Outline of Presentation! Global Comparisons: Developed and Emerging Markets! Global Trends! Macroeconomic Trends! Policy Trends! Regulatory Trends! The Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis: Causes and Consequences Lea SA November Mortgage Debt-to-GDP Growing In Most Developed Markets Global Comparisons Lea SA November Lea SA November
2 Mortgage Debt-to-GDP Lower But Growing In Emerging Markets Low Mortgage Rates Have Been a Major Catalyst of Growth Mortgage Interest Rates 12.0% 10.0% Germany 8.0% Spain UK 6.0% Australia Canada Japan 4.0% US FRM US ARM 2.0% 0.0% Source: EMF, Cental Banks Lea SA November Lea SA November But Mortgage Rates Remain High In Many Emerging Markets House Price Increases Have Been Substantial House Price Trends 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% Germ any 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Spain Ireland UK US Canada Australia Japan 0.0% % -10.0% Source: EMF, OFHEO, CMHC, Australia Bureau of Statistics, Japan Real Estate Institute, Economist Lea SA November Lea SA November
3 House Prices Are Heading Down The Effects of Falling House Prices (US) Source: Merrill Lynch Lea SA November Lea SA November Banks and Savings Banks Dominate Mortgage Lending In Developed Markets Mortgage Intermediaries Rising in Importance Mortgage Lenders by Type Mortgage Distribution Channels 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% % Share of New Lending 60% 50% 40% 30% % Origination Share 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Australia Canada Germany Japan Netherlands Spain UK US Germany Netherlands Spain United Kingdom A ustralia Canada Japan Source: M OW (Euro 2003), M BA (2005), Realty Times (Canada 2004), BSA (UK 2005), M ISC (Australia 2005) Source: EMF (2004), CMHC (2004), GHLC (2004/5), Australian Bureau of Statistics (2005) Commercial banks Savings banks/trust Cos. Mortgage banks Building societies/coops/mutuals Insurance cos. Other Retail Broker/Intermediary Lea SA November Lea SA November
4 Mortgage Products Becoming More Varied US UK US With Concern About Performance Source: MBA Source: CML Source: Merrill Lynch Lea SA November Lea SA November Deposits Still Dominate Developed Market Mortgage Finance Capital Market Funding Has Been On The Rise In Emerging Markets Lea SA November Lea SA November
5 Emerging Market Funding Examples Mortgage Bonds Structured Finance (Asia, CEE) Structured Finance (Lat Am, Africa) Conduits Liquidity Facilities Chile China Argentina Argentina India Colombia Hong Kong Brazil Brazil Jordan Czech Republic Korea Colombia Colombia Malaysia Hungary Malaysia Chile Hong Kong Mexico Kazakstan Philippines Mexico Korea South Africa Latvia Thailand Panama Trinidad Trinidad Poland Peru Thailand Latvia Russia Trinidad Morocco South Africa Mortgage Insurance Going Global Algeria Hong Kong Australia Iceland Belgium Ireland Canada Israel Columbia Italy Dominican Rep Kazakhstan Estonia Lithuania Finland Mali France Mexico Guatemala Morocco Soon to be introduced in India New Zealand Netherlands Palestinian Territories The Philippines Portugal South Africa Spain Sweden Taiwan United Kingdom United States Source: World Bank Lea SA November Lea SA November Global Trends Lea SA November Macroeconomic Trends Shifting Demographics! Population growth slowing in most countries! Urbanization increasing in emerging markets! Aging population rising, particularly in developed markets! Expanding middle class in emerging markets Economic Changes! Innovation and technology now a global influence! Cross-border capital flows will they continue?! Lower consumer inflation and nominal mortgage rates Global deflationary forces will force rates down! House price cycles: bubbles and busts Lea SA November
6 Policy Trends Financial Sector Liberalization! Increased competition, new entrants! Decline of specialist housing finance circuits Domestic Capital Market Development! Improved opportunities for securitization, bond finance Pension Reform! Increased supply of long term funds Regulatory Activism! Consumer protection! Capital adequacy/safety and soundness Lea SA November Regulatory Trends Consumer Regulation! Increased emphasis on disclosure, borrower protection!impacts costs, products, distribution channels!on-going debate in US (disclosure, fees, predatory lending)!europe moving from Code of Conduct (voluntary) to Directive (mandatory)!driving force for technology adoption Institutional Regulation! Until crisis focused on Basel II!Lower capital requirements on mortgage assets!insufficient coverage liquidity and market risk!pro-cyclical Lea SA November
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