Development Updates and Trends : Opportunities and Risks Local Details Operating for a Global Strategy
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1 Development s and Trends : Opportunities and Risks Local Details Operating for a Global Strategy Claro dg. Cordero, Jr. Head Research, Consulting & Valuation Services 19 October
2 Discussion agenda Introduction Asia-Pacific Property Current Development Trends Challenges and Opportunities 2
3 Asia-Pacific Property 3
4 Global Economic Scenarios US Risk of double-dip recession Fiscal problems Depreciation of dollar Massive government debt Japan Weather-related disasters Currency appreciation Aging population High government debt India Inflation an issue Interest rate increases Food shortages EU Debt burden Government defaults Aging population Higher government debt China Economic growth is slowing Inflation becoming an issue Imbalanced growth Interest rate increases Middle East Social unrest Government upheaval Slowing growth 4
5 Asia Pacific commercial real estate markets buffeted by global headwinds: Relatively slower economic growth across the region during 2Q12 Nonetheless, growth prospects of the region remains positive Rental rates improves in select markets while capital values sustain positive momentum overall Prime properties remain attractive to Asian & international investors 5
6 Explosive growth in private wealth Rise of High Net Worth (HNW) investor Asia-Pacific: HNW population 3 million, equal to that of Europe HNW wealth up 31% to $9.7 trillion 332 billionaires in 2011, versus 79 in 2001 Corporate Occupiers in Asia Pacific Asian corporates have savings to spend Corporations in Asia Pacific generate 30% world s output - About 40% manufacturing world output Corporations buy or develop real estate for their own occupation - Part of trend that leads on to sale and leaseback in market maturity cycle 6
7 Net Effective Rents (1Q07=100) Asia Pacific Rental Rates Manila vis-a-vis Key Asia Pacific markets 220 2Q12 rental growth* Manila Bangkok Jakarta Shanghai Hongkong Singapore Kuala Lumpur Mumbai Note: Figures relate to the major submarket (CBD) in each city. For Singapore, figures refer to Raffles Place only. *2Q12 rental growth refers to the quarterly change from 1Q12 to 2Q12. Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle (Real Estate Intelligence Service), 2Q 2012; The Office Rental Index, August Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 Manila Singapore Hong Kong Shanghai Mumbai Bangkok Jakarta Kuala Lumpur 7
8 Rentals 2Q12 Average Grade A Rent (USD/sqm/annum) 1,544 1, Although Manila office rents continue to grow, they remain to be among the cheapest in the region Hong Kong Tokyo Beijing Singapore Shanghai Mumbai Ho Chih Minh Note: Figures relate to the major submarket (CBD) in each city. For Singapore, figures refer to Raffles Place only. Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle (Real Estate Intelligence Service), 2Q 2012; The Office Rental Index, August 2012 Manila Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Bangkok 8
9 Rental Outlook Prime Residential Rental Clock Growth Slowing Manila For update Kuala Lumpur Singapore Bangkok Shanghai Beijing Rents Falling Manila 2Q09 2Q10 2Q12 2Q11 Manila Rents Rising Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (Real Estate Intelligence Service), 2Q 2011 Manila Hong Kong Jakarta Decline Slowing 9
10 Trends Weather Forecast Office Metro Manila Supply Demand Rent/Price Residential Retail Hotel LEGEND Robust growth Moderate growth Minimal growth Minimal decline Moderate decline Significant decline 10
11 Growth Drivers of Philippine Property 11
12 Development Trends 12
13 1) Sustainability Source: JLL Presentation The Rise of Green Tenants 13
14 2)Integrated Land Use Development Supports efficient use of land and maximizing potentials Links social and economic development with enhancement and protection of environment 14
15 3) Preservation of Cultural Heritage Redevelopment of old developments with cultural significance Preservation of historical/cultural structures Conservation of architectural styles In the Philippines, the National Cultural Heritage Act (RA 10066) was signed into law in Hotel Majapahit, Indonesia Waldorf Astoria, Shanghai Stamford House, Singapore Fullerton Hotel, Singapore Raffles Hotel, Singapore 15
16 4) New Technologies in ing Social media: Facebook, Twitter, Youtube Interactive websites, maps, blogs and database Virtual showrooms 16
17 5) Retirement Homes 81 20% % 82 22% 23% 82 25% 81 26% 82 23% 82 27% 74 13% 84 31% Growing opportunities in the retirement home market Demand mainly coming from ageing economies Influences by slow economic recoveries 81 15% 82 19% Life expectancy Notes: (1) Life expectancy is the average of the life expectancies at birth of men and women. % population over 60 years old (2) Population over 60 years is the average of the percentage of the men population over 60 years and the percentage of the women population over 60 years. (3) Figures are as of Source: United Nations Statistics Division 81 19% 17
18 6) Affordable Housing Development Cooperation among developers to provide affordable housing options Promoted by other government through legislation to ensure minimum standards of living and appropriate investment safety nets for investors/developers (e.g. involvement of public companies for management, tax incentives,/among others 18
19 7) Global Trends in Property Management Practices Focus on cost savings Improving operations efficiency (automated processes e.g. maintenance requests through the Web, electronic rental payment) Intensive training for employees Emphasis on sustainability (e.g. accreditation with LEED) 19
20 USA 8) REITs Evolution of Global REIT Netherlands 1970 s 1990 s Japan South Korea Singapore South Africa France Greece Taiwan Brazil Thailand Hong Kong Bulgaria Malaysia Israel Germany UK Italy Future 1960 s 1980 s 2000 s Australia Canada Belgium Turkey New Zealand The Philippines India China Mexico Source: The Association for Real Estate Securitization and CFA Institute 20
21 9) Real Estate Transparency and Valuation Transparency Level High Transparent 2012 Composite Rank 2012 Composite Score 1 United States United Kingdom Australia Netherlands New Zealand Canada France Finland Sweden Switzerland Hong Kong Germany Singapore Denmark Ireland Spain Belgium Norway Poland Italy South Africa Austria Malaysia Czech Republic Japan Hungary Brazil - Tier Portugal 2.54 Transparency Level Semi 2012 Composite Rank Source: JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index 2012 Composite Score 29 Taiwan Brazil - Tier Turkey China - Tier Greece Israel Philippines Slovakia Russia - Tier Indonesia Thailand Romania 2.96
22 Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities 22
23 Challenges and opportunities Government support / framework for REIT Safety nets for doing business (e.g. cybercrime law) Incentives for encouraging sustainability practices Improving global real estate transparency and valuation Professionalizing and standardized practice of real estate profession 23
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