U.S. Economic Overview: Implications for So. Cal. And Arizona Metros
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1 U.S. Economic Overview: Implications for So. Cal. And Arizona Metros Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer Milken Institute Presented to Kindercare 9/24/213
2 U.S. Overview Labor markets: improving but slow Consumer spending and the wealth effect State and local finances recover Housing recovery underway but watch mortgage rates Business investment conditions Export markets weaken Financial and monetary conditions Long-term U.S. competiveness improves U.S. and international economic forecast
3 Weak employment recovery compared with previous recoveries Percent change in total nonfarm employment from the start of recession Months after the start of recession Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Milken Institute
4 Labor market gaining some momentum Non-farm employment, United States Percent change, year ago Difference from previous month, thousands Absolute change, (right) % change, (left) Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
5 Long-term joblessness still a challenge Percent unemployed for 27 weeks or more Percent Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Analytics.
6 Employment gap by education Unemployment rates for adults, 25 years and over Percent High school diploma Less than a high school diploma 8 6 Some college or associates degree Bachelor s degree and higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7 Markets have recovered Indexed S&P 5 Index Monthly Average (Oct, 27 = 1) S&P 5 Index Sources: Standard and Poor s, Moody s Analytics.
8 U.S. home prices are rising steadily Median existing single-family home price Percent change, year ago Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Analytics.
9 Consumer debt service as a percent of disposable personal income is back at mid-199s levels Debt service payments as percent of disposable personal income Source: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
10 Consumers remain cautious U.S. real personal consumption expenditures Percent change, year ago Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
11 Auto sales continue strong recovery Light vehicle sales Millions, SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Milken Institute.
12 State and local government drag on economy United States employment Percent change, year ago 4 2 Private -2-4 Government Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
13 U.S. home sales pick up Single-family home sales Percent change, year ago Existing homes -2-4 New homes Sources: National Association of Realtors, Moody s Analytics.
14 Housing starts are trending upwards United States Millions of units Single family units Multi-family units Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.
15 Home mortgage interest rates are rising Contract interest rate, fixed rate conventional 3-year loans Contract interest rate, percent Source: Federal Home Loan Bank Board.
16 U.S. Corporate profits are steady U.S. Corporate profits before tax (without IVA and Ccadj.) US$ trillions Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.
17 Purchase manager s index indicates growth U.S. ISM diffusion indices Index Nonmanufacturing 4 35 Manufacturing Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Moody s Analytics.
18 Nondefense capital goods (excluding aircraft) recovering Value of U.S. manufacturers new orders Percent change, year ago Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.
19 U.S. Small businesses still uncertain Small Business Optimism Index Index Sources: National Federation of Independent Businesses, Moody s Analytics.
20 Exports are stagnant U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Percent change, year ago 3 2 Exports Imports Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.
21 U.S. commercial and industrial lending Quarterly change, US$ billions Sources: Federal Reserve Board, IHS Global Insight.
22 U.S. Corporate bond spreads 7-year corporate bonds (spread over U.S. Treasury) BBB rated A rated Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan 21 Jan 211 Jan 212 Jan 213 Source: Thompson Reuters Datastream.
23 Federal balance sheet still growing United States $ Billion 4, 3,5 3, Other assets 2,5 2, Treasuries 1,5 1, MBS / Agency debt Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Milken Institute. Note: Other assets include lending to banks and liquidity to key credit markets.
24 Federal government net saving United States US$ billions, SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
25 Natural gas and crude oil production United States Trillions of barrels 3.5 Trillion cubic feet Oil production (left) Natural gas production (right) Source: Energy Information Administration.
26 Relative unit labor costs United States Costs, relative unit of labor (28 = 1) Source: Oxford Economics.
27 Innovation and high quality research Selected countries Quality of scientific research institutions (score) United Kingdom Canada France United States Israel Japan Switzerland Germany South Korea India Brazil China Innovation (score) Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness report
28 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections World United States Euro Area Japan Advanced Economies Brazil China India Mexico Russia South Africa Source: IMF, July 213.
29 Job growth in Los Angeles Non-farm employment 4 Percent change, year ago 2 California Los Angeles -2 United States Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
30 Job growth in Santa Ana Non-farm employment 4 Percent change, year ago United States -6-8 California Santa Ana Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
31 Job growth in Riverside Non-farm employment 4 Percent change, year ago 2-2 United States California Riverside Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
32 Job growth in Ventura Non-farm employment 4 Percent change, year ago 2 Ventura -2 United States -4-6 California Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
33 Job growth in Santa Barbara Non-farm employment 4 Percent change, year ago 2 Santa Barbara United States California Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
34 Job growth in San Diego Non-farm employment 4 Percent change, year ago 2 San Diego -2 United States -4-6 California Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
35 Job growth in Phoenix Non-farm employment 4 2 Percent change, year ago Phoenix -2-4 United States -6 Arizona Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
36 Job growth in Tucson Non-farm employment 4 Percent change, year ago United States Tucson -6 Arizona Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
37 Job growth in Flagstaff Non-farm employment 6 Percent change, year ago 4 Flagstaff United States -6-8 Arizona Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
38 Job growth in Prescott Non-farm employment 6 Percent change, year ago United States Prescott -6-8 Arizona Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
39 Job growth in Yuma Non-farm employment 6 Percent change, year ago United States Yuma -6-8 Arizona Sources: Economy.com; Milken Institute.
Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks
Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 25 peaks Millions of units 8. 7. 6. 5. Housing starts (right axis) 4. Home sales (left axis) 3. 2. 1. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215
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