Economic Update. Don Bruce Research Professor Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research. January 2019
|
|
- Douglas O’Connor’
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Economic Update Don Bruce Research Professor Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research January 2019
2 January
3 National Economy The U.S. economy has now enjoyed 9 years of economic growth since the Great Recession With 5 more months, the longest expansion on record Real GDP grew by 4.2% in 2018Q2 and by 3.4% in 2018Q3 Nonfarm employment grew by 1.6% in Unemployment rate stood at 3.9% in December (flat throughout 2018) January
4 Tennessee Economy Personal income grew by 2.1% in 2018 Nonfarm employment grew by 1.8% in 2018 Manufacturing employment was up by about 1% The unemployment rate has been steady, around 3.5% Revenue growth has been strong Reserves and balances are in very good shape, but we could not sustain a significant recession without significant cuts January
5 Forecast Expansion continues as projected 60% Expansion picks up steam 15% Driven by stronger productivity growth and low unemployment Slowdown 25% Drop in consumer confidence, and/or slowdown in residential and commercial real estate, investment January
6 3.5 The U.S. can expect continued moderate economic growth in the next few years 3.0 Growth in Real GDP (%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Markit, U.S. Economic Outlook, January 2019 (copyright). January
7 Consumers are Driving the Expansion 7.00% Percentage change (same quarter previous year) 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% January
8 Light Vehicle Sales have been restored offering little capacity for further growth Unit Sales (millions) Source: IHS Markit, U.S. Economic Outlook, January 2019 (copyright). January
9 Consumer Debt Balance Rising Again Other Student Mortgage Trillions of Dollars January
10 Rates Rise as Economy Confronts Full Employment and Inflationary Risks Rise Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury Note Yield 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate Rate (%) Source: IHS Markit. January
11 Investment may respond to tax reform over time, but limited improvement so far 8.0 Percentage Change, Previous Quarter, SAAR January
12 U.S. Nonresidential Fixed Investment: Expect Moderation as Tax Cut Stimulus Fades 25.0 Total Equipment Intellectual Property Products Structures Growth (%) Source: IHS Markit. January
13 Housing Starts Plateau Well Below Pre-recession Levels 12.0 Tennessee U.S. 2.5 Tennessee (thousands) U.S. (millions) Source: U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development, State of the Cities Data Systems (SOCDS) database; UT-Boyd Center; and IHS Markit. January
14 Deficits Rise Rapidly in the Future (billions) 2028, $1, , $1, , $1, , $ , $ , $413 Source: IHS January
15 The trade deficit remains large Exports - Imports, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars ,000.0 January
16 Tennessee and U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth (year-over-year growth) 6.0% 4.0% Tennessee U.S. Year-Over-Year Growth 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 January
17 Unemployment Rates Remain Low Unemployment rate (%) Tennessee U.S. U.S. Oct TN Oct January
18 Labor Force Participation Rates Show Signs of a Turnaround Participation Rate (%) recession TN U.S. Oct Oct Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. January
19 U.S. Forecast Summary Real GDP growth at 2.5% (down from 2.9% in 2018) Driven by strong 2.6% growth in consumption Business investment growth of 4.0% Exports up by 4.1%, imports up by 6.0% Federal Funds Rate will reach 2.6% 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising to 4.8% Inflation at 2.0% Unemployment at 3.6% job growth at 1.4% January
20 Full Recovery from the Great Recession in Most Sectors (Tennessee, October 2018 as a Share of December 2007) Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Other Services Financial Activities Total Nonfarm Trade, Transportation, Utilities Government Manufacturing Mining, Logging, Construction Information 127.8% 125.8% 124.1% 112.1% 110.0% 110.0% 103.8% 103.0% 95.4% 94.0% 88.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% January
21 MSA Nonfarm Employment Growth (Quarter Ending Sept to Sept. 2018) Chattanooga 3.1% Morristown 2.8% Memphis, TN-MS-AR TENNESSEE Jackson 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% Nashville-Davidson-- Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA 1.5% 1.7% Clarksville 0.8% Knoxville 0.5% Cleveland Johnson City 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Growth Rate (%) January
22 Total Non-farm Employment Growth (Compound Annual Growth Rates, ) 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% CAGR 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Nashville TN Knoxville U.S Chattanooga Memphis January
23 September Unemployment Rates Remain Elevated in Rural Tennessee Tennessee: 3.7% United States: 3.6% Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. 2.7% to 3.7% 3.8% to 4.7% 4.8% to 5.7% 5.8% to 6.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. January
24 Tennessee s Top 5 Export Markets $ Exports (bil U.S. dollars) $4.698 $2.502 $1.984 $ Canada Mexico China Japan Belgium Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration. January
25 Tennessee s Top 5 Export Categories 2017 Transportation Equipment $7.589 Computer & Electronic Products $5.390 Chemicals $4.450 Misc. Manufactures $3.860 Machinery $ Exports (bil U.S. dollars) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration. January
26 Tennessee Employment in Foreign- Japan Germany United Kingdom France Canada Sweden Ireland Italy Switzerland South Korea Netherlands Brazil China Luxembourg Belgium Australia Spain Mexico Owned Companies (Number of Employees by Country of UBO) 18,161 (121) 11,447 (115) 10,003 (79) 9,306 (75) 7,482 (34) 5,647 (38) 5,372 (40) 5,371 (48) 3,464 (15) 3,040 (47) 2,836 (13) 2,586 (21) 1,948 (6) 1,878 (13) 1,855 (31) 1,186 (10) 1,116 (22) 999 foreign-based establishments with employment of 150,075 51,961 (191) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Notes: Countries with employment of 1,000 or more. Number of establishments for each country shown in parentheses. Source: State of Tennessee, < accessed September 11, January
27 Narrowing the Educational Attainment Gap Percentage of population aged 25 Yrs & Older High School Graduate or Higher TN U.S Percentage of population aged 25 Yrs & Older Bachelor's Degree or Higher TN U.S Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (5-Year Estimates, various years). January
28 Unemployment Rate and Earnings Highly Correlated with Educational Attainment 2017 Unemployment Rate (%) 2017 Median Weekly Earnings Less than a high school diploma 6.5 Less than a high school diploma $520 All workers $907 High school diploma 4.6 High school diploma $712 Some college, no degree 4.0 Some college, no degree $774 Associate's degree 3.4 Associate's degree $836 Bachelor's degree 2.5 Bachelor's degree $1,173 Master's degree 2.2 Master's degree $1,401 Professional degree 1.5 Professional degree $1,836 Doctoral degree 1.5 All workers 3.6% Doctoral degree $1, $0 $1,000 $2,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. January
29 Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years & Older: High School & Higher Tennessee: 86.0% United States: 87.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (5-Year Estimates ). Less than 75.0% 75.0% to 79.9% 80.0% to 86.0% Greater than 86.0% January
30 Tennessee s 2016 Per Capita Personal Income tends to be higher when educational attainment is higher Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. January
31 Tennessee Forecast Summary Real GDP growth at 2.7% Nonfarm job growth of 1.4% Unemployment rate at 3.6% Personal income growth of 4.3% January
32 12.0 Tennessee Fiscal Outlook: Mild Recession Cumulative Balance (bil $) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Scenario #1 (Flat Expenditure Growth) Scenario #2 (Maintenance Expenditure Growth) Scenario #3 ( CAGR) January
33 12.0 Tennessee Fiscal Outlook: Severe Recession Cumulative Balance (bil $) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Scenario #1 (Flat Expenditure Growth) Scenario #2 (Maintenance Expenditure Growth) Scenario #3 ( CAGR) January
34 Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research Haslam College of Business The University of Tennessee 716 Stokely Management Center 916 Volunteer Boulevard Knoxville, Tennessee phone: fax: Follow January
Economic and Fiscal Update
Economic and Fiscal Update OCTOBER 2012 Donald J. Bruce, Professor Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville 88Q2 89Q2 90Q2 91Q2 92Q2 93Q2 94Q2 95Q2 96Q2 97Q2 98Q2
More informationAN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE
AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director Center for Business and Economic Research PREPARED BY THE Center for Business and
More informationVEDP QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
VEDP QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE September 2016 VIRGINIA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP YESVIRGINIA.ORG 1 US ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 1 8% - Source: Consensus Forecasts, September 2016 2 US WEEKLY INDICATORS 5%
More informationHousingmarket. Tennessee. 2nd Quarter Business and Economic Research Center David Penn, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Economics
Tennessee Housingmarket 2nd Quarter 214 Business and Economic Research Center David Penn, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Economics Supported by Tennessee Housing Development Agency Economic Overview ennessee
More informationU.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook December 211 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly,
More information3rd Quarter Weekly Unemployment Claims Total Home Permits* Total Nonfarm Employment* Mortgage Tax Collections -5.
HOUSING T E N N E S S E E 3rd Quarter 2018 Tennessee dashboard 3rd quarter 2018 (percent change over the year) Weekly Unemployment Claims -12.81 Total Home Permits* +2.67 Total Nonfarm Employment* +1.62
More information1st Quarter Weekly Unemployment Claims -11% Total Home Permits* +44% Total Nonfarm Employment* +3% Mortgage Tax Collections +17%
HOUSING T E N N E S S E E 1st Quarter 2016 Tennessee dashboard 1st quarter 2016 (percent change over the year) Weekly Unemployment Claims -11% Total Home Permits* +44% Total Nonfarm Employment* +3% Mortgage
More informationU.S. Economic Overview: Implications for So. Cal. And Arizona Metros
U.S. Economic Overview: Implications for So. Cal. And Arizona Metros Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer Milken Institute Presented to Kindercare 9/24/213 U.S. Overview Labor markets: improving but slow
More information4th Quarter Weekly Unemployment Claims Total Home Permits* Total Nonfarm Employment* Mortgage Tax Collections -4.
HOUSING T E N N E S S E E 4th Quarter 2017 Tennessee dashboard 4th quarter 2017 (percent change over the year) Weekly Unemployment Claims -12.27 Total Home Permits* -1.00 Total Nonfarm Employment* +1.17
More informationAN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE
AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director Center for Business and Economic Research PREPARED BY THE Center for Business and
More informationThe Outlook for the U.S. Economy and the Policies of the New President
The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and the Policies of the New President Jason Furman Senior Fellow, PIIE SNS/SHOF Finance Panel Stockholm June 12, 2017 Peterson Institute for International Economics 1750
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University The United States economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 appears to have a more robust foothold pointing to a healthier outlook for 2014. Much
More information4th Quarter 211 TENNESSEE HOUSING MARKET David A. Penn, Director Business and Economic Research Center Jennings A. Jones College of Business Middle Tennessee State University This quarterly series is supported
More informationTENNESSEE HOUSING MARKET
3rd Quarter 21 TENNESSEE HOUSING MARKET David A. Penn, Director Business and Economic Research Center Jennings A. Jones College of Business Middle Tennessee State University This quarterly series is supported
More informationTENNESSEE HOUSING MARKET
2nd Quarter 21 TENNESSEE HOUSING MARKET David A. Penn, Director Business and Economic Research Center Jennings A. Jones College of Business Middle Tennessee State University This quarterly series is supported
More informationOld Dominion University 2013 National Economic Outlook
Old Dominion University 2013 National Economic Outlook January 30, 2013 Professor Vinod Agarwal Professor Mohammad Najand Professor Gary A. Wagner www.odu.edu/forecasting 1 Presentation Outline 2012 Scorecard
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University Moderate growth continued in the United States economy through the second quarter of 2013, though forecasters had anticipated an acceleration
More informationAhmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce The University of Alabama
US Economic Outlook Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce The University of Alabama Composite Can and Tube Institute Annual Meeting Point Clear, Alabama May
More informationEconomic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
More informationEconomic Outlook June Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook June 215 Economic Policy Division U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 198 to Q4 215 Real GDP Trillion 29 Dollars Log Scale $18. Forecast $15. $12.5 Actual Potential $9. $6.5 198
More informationSingle-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks
Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 25 peaks Millions of units 8. 7. 6. 5. Housing starts (right axis) 4. Home sales (left axis) 3. 2. 1. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215
More informationOntario Economic Accounts
SECOND QUARTER OF 2017 April, May, June Ontario Economic Accounts ONTARIO MINISTRY OF FINANCE Table of Contents ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Highlights 1 Ontario s Economy Continues to Grow Expenditure Details 2
More informationTexas Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues
Texas Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues Keith Phillips Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist 1/23/18 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and do
More informationNational & Colorado. Economic Update. Alison Felix Economist & Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Denver Branch
National & Colorado Economic Update Alison Felix Economist & Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Denver Branch The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect
More informationOutlook for the Texas Economy. Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. August 26, 2016
Outlook for the Texas Economy Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, Ph.D. August 26, 2016 Research Economist Texas Society of Architects Contents 1. U.S. Economic Outlook 2. Texas Economic Outlook 3. Challenges and
More informationAugust 2004 Index as of October
T O T E N N E S S E E SAAR 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0-2.5-5.0-7.5-10.0 E N N E S S E E FIGURE 1 Monthly Percentage Change in the Tennessee Leading Index (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) 6.4 Mar-04 0.4 Apr-04
More informationRECESSION AND RECOVERY IN MISSOURI AND THE U.S.
RECESSION AND RECOVERY IN MISSOURI AND THE U.S. Alison Felix Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions
More informationINDICATORS NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC. Final Edition see inside cover FOURTH QUARTER Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOURTH QUARTER 212 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Economic Snapshot Labor Market Conditions Income Consumer Prices Merchandise Exports Real Estate Final Edition see inside
More informationHouse Appropriations Committee Retreat
House Appropriations Committee Retreat Virginia s Housing Outlook November 13, 2006 Virginia s Housing Outlook Construction drop historically leads recession Residential real estate activity is dropping
More informationAfter falling last month, the Tennessee
T O T E N N E S S E E SAAR 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0-2.5-5.0-7.5-10.0 E N N E S S E E E C O N O M I C V E R V I E W September 2004 Index as of November 2004 FIGURE 1 Monthly Percentage Change in the Tennessee
More informationTENNESSEE BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
TENNESSEE BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THE STATE S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SPRING2013 TENNESSEE BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director Center for Business and
More informationEMBARGOED UNTIL MARCH 2, 2011
Outlook FORECAST: 2011-2015 March 2011 BUREAU OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY www.bber.wvu.edu Executive Summary The Morgantown metropolitan
More informationKeith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor
The Outlook for the Texas Economy Keith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor National Economic Overview Growth in US Economy Positive But Sluggish Market working to heal itself asset prices falling, inflation
More informationDavid A Penn, Director and Associate Professor Business and Economic Research Center Jones College of Business Middle Tennessee State University
David A Penn, Director and Associate Professor Business and Economic Research Center Jones College of Business Middle Tennessee State University David.Penn@mtsu.edu www.mtsu.edu/berc National Economic
More informationInsolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017
Insolvency forecasts Economic Research August 2017 Summary We present our new insolvency forecasting model which offers a broader scope of macroeconomic developments to better predict insolvency developments.
More informationTurkey s Saving Deficit Issue From an Institutional Perspective
Turkey s Saving Deficit Issue From an Institutional Perspective Engin KURUN, Ph.D CEO, Ziraat Asset Management Oct. 25th, 2011 - Istanbul 1 PRESENTATION Household and Institutional Savings Institutional
More informationEconomic Outlook. William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Economic Outlook CRF Credit & A/R Forum & EXPO Salt Lake City, UT October 23, 218 William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago What I said In August The outlook
More informationU.S. & Missouri Economic Outlook
U.S. & Missouri Economic Outlook Missouri Government Finance Officers Association Jason Brown Economist The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Macdonald Realty Monday, January 23, 212 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: European developments U.S. economy and forecasts Canadian economic
More information2018 Texas Economic Outlook: Firing on All Cylinders
218 Texas Economic Outlook: Firing on All Cylinders Keith Phillips Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist 4/5/218 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and
More informationThe Outlook for Israel s Economy in Light of Current Global Developments
The Outlook for Israel s Economy in Light of Current Global Developments Dr. Leonardo Leiderman Professor of Economics, Tel-Aviv University and Chief Economic Advisor, Bank Hapoalim To be presented in
More informationEconomic Outlook and Forecast 2015
Economic Outlook and Forecast 2015 Prince William County Fe b r u ar y 17, 2 0 15 Overview National growth Labor market improving but still weaknesses GDP growth expected to remain moderate Next 2 years
More informationPMI and economic outlook
PMI and economic outlook Chris Williamson Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit 1 st November 2017 2 PMI coverage Current coverage Expansion pipeline 40+ Countries covered 27,000+ Companies surveyed every
More informationCorrigendum. OECD Pensions Outlook 2012 DOI: ISBN (print) ISBN (PDF) OECD 2012
OECD Pensions Outlook 2012 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/9789264169401-en ISBN 978-92-64-16939-5 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-16940-1 (PDF) OECD 2012 Corrigendum Page 21: Figure 1.1. Average annual real net investment
More informationMORGANTOWN METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA OUTLOOK COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS. Bureau of Business and Economic Research
2013 MORGANTOWN METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA OUTLOOK COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS Bureau of Business and Economic Research 1 MORGANTOWN METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA OUtlook 2013 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
More informationAir travel markets over the next two decades
Air travel markets over the next two decades October 2016 Brian Pearce Chief Economist, IATA We ve enjoyed a long period of above-trend air travel growth 30% Growth in worldwide RPKs 25% 20% 15% 7 years
More informationVirginia in the Global Economy: Current Trends and Outlook Virginia International Business Council - February 27, 2013
Virginia in the Global Economy: Current Trends and Outlook Virginia International Business Council - February 27, 2013 Ann Battle Macheras Vice President, Regional Research Overview I. National Economic
More informationFigure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Chapter 1 Figure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the Riksbank s historical forecasting errors and the ability of risk-premium adjusted
More informationTHDA STIMULUS SECOND MORTGAGE PROGRAM REPORT
January, 2011 STIMULUS SECOND MORTGE PROAM REPORT Hulya Arik, Ph.D., Research Coordinator DIVISION OF RESEARCH, PLANNING & TECHNICAL SERVICES Tennessee Housing Development Agency 404 James Robertson Parkway,
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Autumn No. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 33 (2017 Q3)
KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Autumn 7 Finalized September 6, 7 No. 33 (7 Q3) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, Galina Potjagailo, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center
More informationHow Much, With Whom and What Does the US Trade? It is important to remember that trade includes both Goods and Services.
How Much, With Whom and What Does the US Trade? It is important to remember that trade includes both Goods and Services. In 2016 1 : The US exported $1.5 trillion in Goods and $750 billion in Services
More informationJason Henderson Vice President and Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Omaha Branch September 2012
Jason Henderson Vice President and Branch Executive September 212 The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook November, Economic Club of Sheboygan George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Outlook themes Growth has rebounded following a soft first
More informationMeasuring National Output and National Income. Gross Domestic Product. National Income and Product Accounts
C H A P T E R 18 Measuring National Output and National Income Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano Gross Domestic Product Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total market value of all final
More informationA Chartbook of International Labor Comparisons
Cornell University ILR School DigitalCommons@ILR Federal Publications Key Workplace Documents 3-2009 A Chartbook of International Labor Comparisons U.S. Department of Labor Follow this and additional works
More informationTexas Mid-Year Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues
Texas Mid-Year Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues Keith Phillips Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist 9/27/18 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter
More informationFinancial Stability (EX) Task Force
Financial Stability (EX) Task Force April 3, 2016 Monitoring Interest Rate Risk Low Interest Rate Study Update Larry Bruning FSA, MAAA Life Actuary NAIC 1 Low Interest Rate Study U.S. 713 Life Insurance
More informationFiscal Policy in Japan
Fiscal Policy in Japan - Issues and Future Directions- June 10th, 2015 Ministry of Finance General Government Gross Debt and Financial Balances (International Comparison) (%) 240 210 General Government
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? North American Conference San Francisco October 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationRecent Recent Developments 0
Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
1 Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter Breakfast Seminar Thursday, November 17, 2011 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union 2 Outline: Global and U.S. economies Canadian
More informationU.S. Economic Outlook STEVE COCHRANE, MANAGING DIRECTOR
U.S. Economic Outlook STEVE COCHRANE, MANAGING DIRECTOR Recessions Are Few and Far Between Business cycle status, January 2017 Source: Moody s Analytics Recession At Risk Recovery Expansion Wage Growth
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationAN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE
AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE THE STATE S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK JANUARY2015 AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University The United States economy barely grew in the first quarter of 2014 due to declining exports to the weakening economies in Europe and Asia as
More informationIn the past three decades, the share of foreign-born
NationalEconomicTrends June New Views on Immigration In the past three decades, the share of foreign-born workers in US total employment has increased markedly, from percent in 197 to 1 percent in Among
More informationThe relatively slow growth of employment has
NationalEconomicTrends August Please go to researchstlouisfedorg/publications/net for important information about your subscription Labor s Share The relatively slow growth of employment has been a prominent
More informationWill the Recovery Ever End? Certified Financial Planners
Will the Recovery Ever End? Certified Financial Planners Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 25, 219 Attention: This
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More informationChapter 6 Measuring National Output and National Income. Kazu Matsuda IBEC 203 Macroeconomics
Chapter 6 Measuring National Output and National Income Kazu Matsuda IBEC 203 Macroeconomics MEASURING NATIONAL OUTPUT AND NATIONAL INCOME MEASURING NATIONAL OUTPUT AND NATIONAL INCOME National income
More informationDecline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27,
More informationGrowth has peaked amidst escalating risks
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE
More informationUnited States. Gross Domestic Product Percent change over year-ago level. Industrial Production Index, 2010=100. Unemployment Rate Percent
United States Summary Indicators Gross Domestic Product Percent change over year-ago level Industrial Production Index, 2010=100 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 108 110 112 114 114.9 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
More informationIndividual households and firms, as well as local, state,
NationalEconomicTrends February 9 How Accu Are Forecasts in a Recession? Individual households and firms, as well as local, state, and federal governments, make economic decisions based on their view of
More informationForeign Direct Investment and Ease of Doing Business: Before, During and After the Global Crisis
Foreign Direct Investment and Ease of Doing Business: Before, During and After the Global Crisis Nihal Bayraktar Pennsylvania State University Harrisburg June 27, 2011 Introduction FDI has been seen as
More informationManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Singapore
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Singapore 1 218 ManpowerGroup interviewed nearly 59, employers across 43 countries and territories to forecast labor market activity* in 1Q 218. All participants
More informationMarket Briefing: S&P 500 Forward Earnings & the Economy
Market Briefing: S&P Forward Earnings & the Economy January, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-56 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www.
More informationebr.eller.arizona.edu
Sponsored by Eller College Dean and Halle Chair in Leadership JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. Today s written analysis and slides are available from our Award-Winning Website: Director Economic and Business Research
More informationU.S. Macro Economic Outlook
U.S. Macro Economic Outlook BRYON J PARMAN DEPARTMENT OF AG. BUSINESS AND APPLIED ECONOMICS NDSU EXTENSION - Current US Economic Situation GDP/GNP Unemployment Spending - Macro Trade Trade Balance Industries
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More informationStatistical Annex ANNEX
ISBN 92-64-02384-4 OECD Employment Outlook Boosting Jobs and Incomes OECD 2006 ANNEX Statistical Annex Sources and definitions Most of the statistics shown in these tables can be found as well in three
More informationWith the tax filing season in full swing, these summary
NationalEconomicTrends March Income Taxes: Who Pays and How Much? With the tax filing season in full swing, these summary figures may provide some perspective on the issue of who is paying federal individual
More informationStaff GDP Forecast Summary
Staff GDP Forecast Summary Real growth: about ¾% (Q/Q) in 8 and ½% in 9. Forecast for 8 stronger than that presented at April 7 EAP. Forecasts for 8 and 9 similar to Blue Chip consensus. Outlook reflects
More informationThe US and California Economic Outlook
Regional Economic Forum April 25, 2018 The US and California Economic Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Economist/Executive Director of Research LLC Outline U.S. Economy State & Region Conclusion/Looking
More informationThe Arkansas Economic Outlook Focus on Hot Springs
The Arkansas Economic Outlook Focus on Hot Springs Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR Regional Economic Forecast Hot Springs December
More informationThe Israeli Economy Strong & Stable, A+
The Israeli Economy Strong & Stable, A+ But does not leverage its full potential April 23, 2018 Dr. Yacov Sheinin, Dr. Rachel Sheinin Disclaimer This review is intended solely for clients of Economic Models
More informationBalancing Adequacy and Sustainability Insights from the Global Aging Preparedness Index
Parallel Session 3B Balancing Adequacy and Sustainability Insights from the Global Aging Preparedness Index Richard Jackson President Global Aging Institute Global aging will challenge the ability of societies
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationHouseholds: Net Worth Advances, Debt Outstanding Declines. Chart 1
Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Households: Net Worth Advances, Debt Outstanding Declines June 9, 2 Households experienced another quarter of gains in their net worth without improvements in real estate
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS LABOR MARKET Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 2 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rate 3 MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing Index 4 CONSUMERS Light Vehicle
More informationEconomic Outlook. Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012.
Economic Outlook Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012 Mark Carney Mark Carney Governor Agenda Three global forces The consequences
More informationIn 2010, the first of the Baby Boom generation will
NationalEconomicTrends September 7 Can Social Security Survive the Baby Boomers? In 1, the first of the Baby Boom generation will reach age Many will choose to begin what they hope will be a long and financially
More informationGlobal Themes and Risks
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research Global Themes and Risks April 2013 Abby Joseph Cohen, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-212-902-4095 abby.cohen@gs.com Rachel Siu Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-212-357-0493
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Home Builders Association of Virginia June 22, 2018 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist Housing Market Growing; Single-Family Lags Tax reform changes Macroeconomics post-tax
More informationNational Economic Conditions. Cheyenne AIA Meeting February 25th, 2011 Rob Godby
National Economic Conditions Cheyenne AIA Meeting February 25th, 2011 Rob Godby Percent Change Recovery is Technically Underway 8 Quarter-Quarter Growth in Real GDP 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 I II III IV I II III
More informationManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Netherlands
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Netherlands 1 218 The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the first quarter 218 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 754 employers in
More informationHouse prices in the United States were 14.1 percent
NationalEconomicTrends August How Much Have US House Prices Fallen? House prices in the United States were 11 percent lower in the first quarter of than they were a year earlier, according to a widely
More informationStatistical Annex. Sources and definitions
Statistical Annex Sources and definitions Most of the statistics shown in these tables can also be found in two other (paper or electronic) publication and data repository, as follows: The annual edition
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationThere has been considerable discussion of the possibility
NationalEconomicTrends February Housing and the R Word There has been considerable discussion of the possibility that ongoing troubles in the housing market could push the economy into recession 1 But
More information