After falling last month, the Tennessee

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1 T O T E N N E S S E E SAAR E N N E S S E E E C O N O M I C V E R V I E W September 2004 Index as of November 2004 FIGURE 1 Monthly Percentage Change in the Tennessee Leading Index (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) 0.4 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-04 After falling last month, the Tennessee economy regained some momentum during the month of September as the leading index of economic activity increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 3.0 percent. The leading index, a measure of economic activity expected to occur in the state within the next six to nine months, currently stands at and is above the level established in September of The leading index is comprised of five component series that are strong indicators of the future direction of the economy, three of which increased this month. The primary positive contributor to the increase in the index was the decrease in initial claims for unemployment insurance. There were 2,888 fewer jobless claims filed in the month, a 67.7 percent (SAAR) (Continued on page 2) CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE decrease from last month. The second positive factor in the Tennessee leading index was the increase in inflation-adjusted taxable sales. Sales jumped 42.4 percent (SAAR) bringing total inflation-adjusted taxable sales to $6,573 million. The level of construction employment in Tennessee enjoyed a gain of 600 jobs or 6.3 percent (SAAR), which contributed to the growth in the Tennessee index. The most significant factor that served to dampen the increase in the index was the contraction in the average length of a manufacturing work week. It declined 12.1 percent (SAAR) to 39.4 hours per week, which makes four consecutive months that the series has fallen. The final factor used to calculate the index is the U.S. leading index which fell 1.0 percent (SAAR) in September. While only five series comprise the index, other factors are certainly important INSIDE TN ECONOMIC DATA... 3 U.S. ECONOMIC DATA... 4 MSA PERSPECTIVE... 5 CHATTANOOGA MSA... 6 KNOXVILLE MSA... 7 MEMPHIS MSA... 8 NASHVILLE MSA... 9 TRI-CITIES MSA SELECTED CBER PUBLICATIONS... 11

2 (Continued from page 1) in determining the state economy s future prosperity. Labor market data for the state that are not used to calculate the Tennessee leading index are largely negative. The manufacturing sector lost 300 jobs from August to September, translating into a 0.8 percent (SAAR) decline. Total nonagricultural employment remained stable from August to September at nearly 2.7 million jobs. The state s unemployment rate rose two-tenths of a point to 5.1 percent, another indicator of a struggling labor market. This is the highest the unemployment rate has been since December 2003, but is still significantly lower than the 6.1 percent rate that prevailed in September Moreover the state rate continues to lie below the U.S. unemployment rate of 5.4 percent. The fourth consecutive monthly fall in the nation s leading index certainly offers little encouragement regarding the future direction of the state economy. According to The Conference Board, While the leading index is not yet signaling a downturn, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed below its long-term trend growth rate, which is consistent with real GDP continuing to grow in the near term, but more slowly than its longterm trend rate. Four of the ten indicators that comprise the U.S. leading index increased in September. The U.S. coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in September. There are additional signs that offer some encouragement. Total nonagricultural employment increased for the twelfth consecutive month, and the year-overyear percent change remains positive. The small gains in total nonagricultural employment helped the unemployment rate remain at 5.4 percent, which continues to be lower than the recent past. The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance also dropped 21.9 percent (SAAR). On the consumption side of the economy, we see that consumer sentiment diminished while retail sales grew. Unlike the U.S., the Tennessee leading index experienced gains in September, and the year-over-year percent change in Tennessee s leading index remains positive suggesting a higher level of economic activity relative to September The indicators including the U.S. leading index suggest that the Tennessee economy will behave much like the U.S. economy: modest growth in the near future, potentially below long-term trend growth rates. U.S. (millions) U.S. (billions) FIGURE 2 Tennessee Quarterly Leading Index FIGURE 3 Total Nonfarm Employment TN US Sep 03 Nov 03 Jan 04 Mar 04 May 04 Jul 04 Sep FIGURE 4 Real Personal Income (2000 $) US TN 01: I 01: I V :I 01:IV :1 95:1 96:1 97:1 98:1 99:1 00:1 01:1 02:1 03:1 04:1 TN (millions) TN (thousands) 2

3 TENNESSEE ECONOMIC INDICATORS Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep Leading Index (1996=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Nonfarm Employment (THOU) , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,667.0 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Unemployment (%) Mfg Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Mfg Avg Weekly Hours % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Const Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL $) ,823 6,920 6,803 6,872 6,969 6,991 7,048 7,023 6,946 6,938 7,182 6,890 7,101 80,418 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL 2000 $) ,443 6,532 6,422 6,474 6,540 6,543 6,577 6,544 6,448 6,424 6,653 6,382 6,573 76,213 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Initial Claims for UI ,499 32,095 31,265 35,953 31,054 31,450 33,079 31,849 29,295 35,460 29,661 32,158 29, ,557 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr :3 2001:4 2002:1 2002:2 2002:3 2002:4 2003:1 2003:2 2003:3 2003:4 2004:1 2004:2 2004: Personal Income (BIL $) n.a % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Personal Income (BIL 2000 $) n.a % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Calculated from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 2. Calculated from Tennessee Department of Revenue data. 3. Calculated from Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development data. 4. Calculated from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data. n.a. not available 3

4 U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep Personal Income (BIL 2000 $) , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,161.8 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Pers Cons Price Index (2000=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Nonfarm Employment (MIL) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Unemployment (%) Bank Prime Interest Rate (%) Coincident Index (1996=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Leading Index (1996=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Mfg Employment (MIL) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Initial Claims for UI (THOU) , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,963.0 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Retail Sales (BIL $) ,398.9 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Cons Sentiment Index (1966=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr :3 2001:4 2002:1 2002:2 2002:3 2002:4 2003:1 2003:2 2003:3 2003:4 2004:1 2004:2 2004: U.S. GDP (BIL 2000 $) ,871 9,910 9,994 10,053 10,117 10,136 10,184 10,287 10,473 10,581 10,698 10,785 10,883 10,381 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr U.S. Personal Income (BIL 2000 $) ,538 8,547 8,575 8,606 8,562 8,556 8,567 8,650 8,714 8,801 8,839 8,900 8,941 8,683 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. Global Insight, Inc. 3. Calculated from Global Insight, Inc. data. 4. Calculated from BEA data. 4

5 September was an encouraging month for economic activity in Tennessee s largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) as all five regional indices experienced gains ranging from 1.1 percent (SAAR) to 6.7 percent (SAAR). The Memphis MSA enjoyed the largest boost for the month (Figure 5). Inflation-adjusted taxable sales expanded in all five regions, while construction employment rose in three of the five MSAs. Manufacturing and total nonagricultural employment decreased in four and five of the MSAs. These declines contributed to rising unemployment rates in four of the MSAs (Figure 6). Only the Memphis MSA unemployment rate is above the Tennessee rate (Figure 7). The increases in all five MSA indices strengthened the positive year-over-year percentage changes, indicating a stronger level of economic activity in September 2004 relative to September percentage change (SAAR) FIGURE 6 MSA Employment Growth September Nashville Chattanooga -0.8 Memphis -2.3 Knoxville -4.3 Tri-Cities FIGURE 5 MSA Index Growth September 2004 FIGURE 7 MSA Unemployment Rate September 2004 percentage change (SAAR) rate Memphis Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville Tri-Cities 0.0 Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville Tri-Cities Memphis Tennessee s Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas June 1996 definitions MEMPHIS NASHVILLE CHATTANOOGA KNOXVILLE TRI-CITIES 5

6 The Chattanooga Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) index of leading economic activity jumped 6.3 percent (SAAR) in September as a result of three of its four components increasing. Perhaps the largest contributor to the expansion of the index was the boost in inflation-adjusted taxable sales. Inflation-adjusted taxable sales rose $15 million from August, representing a 61.7 percent (SAAR) increase. Construction employment increased 13.6 percent (SAAR) due to the introduction of 100 new jobs. The final positive factor contributing to the increase in the leading index was the Tennessee index, which rose 3.0 percent (SAAR). The only negative component of the index was the fall in average manufacturing weekly hours from 39.5 hours to 39.2 hours per week, representing an 8.8 percent (SAAR) decline. Labor market data not used in compiling Chattanooga s index offer a more pessimistic outlook. Manufacturing employment fell at the rate of 6.4 percent (SAAR), or 200 jobs, and total nonagricultural employment decreased by 0.2 percent (SAAR). The gains in construction employment were not enough to offset losses in other sectors, contributing to a three-tenths of a percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent, which is still considerably below the state unemployment rate of 5.1 percent. The gain in the Chattanooga area leading index in September helped maintain a positive year-over-year percent change, suggesting a higher level of economic activity compared to September Even with the decline in total nonagricultural employment and the subsequent increase in the unemployment rate, the Chattanooga MSA unemployment rate continues to remain significantly below both the Tennessee and the U.S. rates. The Chattanooga area must sustain low unemployment rates and continue to experience growth in inflation-adjusted taxable sales to maintain momentum. Like the state, the Chattanooga MSA should expect a continuation of modest growth through the first of FIGURE 8 Chattanooga Quarterly Leading Index CHATTANOOGA ECONOMIC INDICATORS Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep Leading Index (1996=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Nonfarm Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Unemployment (%) Mfg Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Mfg Avg Weekly Hours % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Const Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL $) ,685 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL 2000 $) ,440 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Calculated from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 2. Calculated from Tennessee Department of Revenue data. 01: I 01: I V

7 After experiencing losses for three consecutive months, the Knoxville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) index of leading economic activity rose 5.3 percent (SAAR) in September. The gain in the index was the result of increases in two of the four series that comprise the leading index. Inflation-adjusted taxable sales increased by $46 million to reach $954 million, representing an 81.5 percent (SAAR) increase. The only other positive contributor to the increase was the 3.0 percent (SAAR) increase experienced by the Tennessee leading index. The other two factors, construction employment and average weekly hours in the manufacturing sector, both suffered setbacks. A total of 100 jobs were lost in the construction sector, leading to a 5.3 percent (SAAR) decline. Even with the decline, the year-over-year percent change remains positive. Average manufacturing weekly work hours fell from 41.0 to 40.8 hours, but the number of hours still remains higher than all other MSAs. Negative evidence of economic conditions is given by labor market data not included in the Knoxville leading index. Manufacturing sector employment dropped 3.0 percent (SAAR), representing a loss of 100 jobs. The year-over-year percent change in manufacturing employment remains negative. Nonagricultural employment fell at a 2.3 percent (SAAR) rate, representing 700 fewer jobs. The unemployment rate increased three-tenths of a point to 3.6 percent, which is still well below the state and national unemployment rates. September was a mixed month for the Knoxville MSA as the leading index increased by 5.3 percent (SAAR), but data not included in the calculation were negative. The boost in the index was driven primarily by the increase in inflation-adjusted taxable sales. If the Knoxville MSA is to experience sustained growth, there must be a turn around in employment performance in several sectors, including manufacturing and construction. Substantial growth in the area s economic activity is dependent on the state and national economies, as well as on the region s ability to stimulate its own growth. All available evidence points to slow-to-modest growth continuing for the next several months. KNOXVILLE ECONOMIC INDICATORS Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep Leading Index (1996=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Nonfarm Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Unemployment (%) Mfg Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Mfg Avg Weekly Hours % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Const Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL $) , ,031 11,614 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL 2000 $) ,007 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Calculated from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 2. Calculated from Tennessee Department of Revenue data FIGURE 9 Knoxville Quarterly Leading Index 01: I 01: I V

8 The Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) index of leading economic activity rebounded from last month s loss with a 6.7 percent (SAAR) increase in September, which was the largest increase of all the MSAs. The rise in the index was the result of increases in four of the five component series that make up the Memphis MSA index. The most significant contributor to the increase in the index was the jump in average weekly manufacturing hours from 42.0 to 43.0 hours per week, which represents a 31.3 percent (SAAR) gain. The 43.0 hours-per-week total in the manufacturing sector is the highest of all MSAs in the state. Another strongly positive factor this month was the growth in inflation-adjusted taxable sales of 21.1 percent (SAAR), from $948 million to $964 million. Construction employment in the area also increased in September. The final positive contributor was the Tennessee leading index which increased 3.0 percent (SAAR). The only factor hindering growth of the index was the Memphis area help-wanted index which decreased 20.5 percent (SAAR) in September. As is the case with most of the MSAs in September, labor market data not used to calculate the index are negative. Manufacturing employment fell by 5.4 percent (SAAR) or 200 jobs. Total nonagricultural employment dropped 0.8 percent (SAAR) representing 300 fewer jobs in the sector. These losses in employment contributed to a three-tenths of a point increase in the unemployment rate. This is the highest the unemployment rate has been since December 2003, but it is still lower than it was in September The Memphis MSA unemployment rate continues to be above the state and national rates. The gain in the index this month is certainly welcomed. While the index increased because of an upturn in inflationadjusted taxable sales and an improvement in some labor market areas, signals from several of the labor market data series cause reason for caution. Accordingly, expect the Memphis economy to continue to expand, but at a modest pace. MEMPHIS ECONOMIC INDICATORS Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep Leading Index (1996=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Nonfarm Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Unemployment (%) Mfg Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Mfg Avg Weekly Hours % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Const Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL $) ,073 1,024 1,041 12,074 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL 2000 $) ,443 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Help Wanted Index (1987=100 $) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Calculated from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 2. Calculated from Tennessee Department of Revenue data. 3. Source: The Conference Board FIGURE 10 Memphis Quarterly Leading Index 01: I 01: I V

9 Recovering after last month s downturn, the Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) index of leading economic activity rose 4.6 percent (SAAR) in September; the year-over-year percent change in Nashville s leading index was up 1.6 percent. The gain in the index this month was led by increases in all four of the component series that make up the index. The $29 million increase in inflation-adjusted taxable sales from $1,562 million to $1,591 million was the largest positive component of the index. The addition of 200 jobs in the construction sector also contributed to the success of the index. The gain in construction represented a 5.9 percent (SAAR) increase. Average hours per week in the manufacturing sector were up 1.6 percent (SAAR) to 39.5 hours. The final component was the 3.0 percent (SAAR) increase in the Tennessee leading index. Other employment data from the Nashville MSA not used to compile the leading index were mostly disappointing. The manufacturing sector lost 200 jobs resulting in a decrease of 3.0 percent (SAAR). Total nonagricultural employment jumped slightly by 0.5 percent (SAAR) from the addition of 300 jobs. Despite gains in total nonagricultural employment, the unemployment rate rose two-tenths of a point to 3.9 percent a rate still well below that of the state and the nation. Nashville s performance for the month of September is mixed. On a more encouraging note, all the component series of the Nashville MSA have positive yearover-year percent changes suggesting that the economy is stronger now than it was in September While all of the components that make up the MSA s index increased and growth has been decent for the past year, the future of the area economy is still largely dependent on the national economy. The Nashville economy is expected to continue to expand into 2005, but an acceleration in growth is not anticipated in the short run. 9 NASHVILLE ECONOMIC INDICATORS Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep Leading Index (1996=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Nonfarm Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Unemployment (%) Mfg Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Mfg Avg Weekly Hours % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Const Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL $) ,757 1,686 1,719 19,425 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL 2000 $) ,628 1,562 1,591 18,409 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Help Wanted Index (1987=100 $) 3... n.a. n.a. n.a % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Calculated from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 2. Calculated from Tennessee Department of Revenue data. 3. Source: The Conference Board. n.a. not available FIGURE 11 Nashville Quarterly Leading Index 01: I 01: I V

10 D ue to gains in two of its four component series, the Tri-Cities Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) index of leading economic activity improved 1.1 percent (SAAR) in September. Inflation-adjusted taxable sales rose 20.2 percent (SAAR) as September sales enjoyed an improvement of $5 million, raising the level to $337 million. This increase caused the year-over-year percent change in taxable sales to be positive. The only other positive factor contributing to the growth of the Tri-Cities index was the 3.0 percent (SAAR) increase in the Tennessee leading index. The average work week of the manufacturing sector suffered the largest setback, falling 14.9 percent (SAAR) to 39.4 hours per week. Jobs in the construction sector fell 0.9 percent (SAAR) in September. Other employment data not used to compute the leading index were mixed. Manufacturing sector employment dropped 1.4 percent (SAAR) and total nonagricultural employment contracted 4.3 percent (SAAR). Despite these setbacks, the unemployment rate in the Tri-Cities area managed to shed one-tenth of a point, decreasing to 4.7 percent. This is the lowest the area s unemployment rate has been in over a year, and it continues to be below both the state and national unemployment rates. The Tri-Cities area index enjoyed a gain this month, and the year-over-year percent change of the index continues to be positive representing some growth over the prior year. Notable is the area unemployment rate which continues to check in below the national and state unemployment rates. Employment losses remain a stumbling block to future growth. As with the national and state economies, the Tri-Cities area should expect modest growth well into the New Year. TRI-CITIES ECONOMIC INDICATORS Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep Leading Index (1996=100) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Nonfarm Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Unemployment (%) Mfg Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Mfg Avg Weekly Hours % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Const Employment (THOU) % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL $) ,174 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Taxable Sales (MIL 2000 $) ,956 % Chg Prev Month SAAR % Chg Same Month Last Yr Calculated from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 2. Calculated from Tennessee Department of Revenue data FIGURE 12 Tri-Cities Quarterly Leading Index 01: I 01: I V

11 Selected Economic Publications from CBER Economic Effects of the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Athletic Department. October Tennessee Business and Economic Outlook, Fall September (ly) Economic Growth Strategy Regions Report. August The Impact of TennCare: A Survey of Recipients. August (annual) State and Local Sales Tax Revenue Losses from E-Commerce: Estimates as of July Interactions between Local Labor Markets and Families First Caseloads. June Economic Benefits of the U.S. Dept. of Energy for the State of Tennessee FY2003. Poverty Rates among Current and Former Families First Participants. May An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee. January (annual) Population Projections for the State of Tennessee: 2005 to December Economic Effects of TVA Lake Management Policy in East Tennessee. May The Structure of State Taxes in Tennessee: A Fiscal Primer. February Procurement at the Metropolitan Government of Nashville-Davidson County. Feb Tennessee Economic Update: Prepared for Tennessee Tomorrow, Inc. January General Economic Characteristics in Tennessee: Examining Changes in Labor Market Conditions and Income Levels, November Potential Impacts of Electric Utility Restructuring on Local Governments in Tennessee. October Tennessee Summary. State & Local Sales Tax Revenue Losses from E-Commerce: Updated Estimates. October General Demographic Changes in Tennessee, : Understanding the Economic Implications. September Strategic Options for Fostering Development of the Automotive Cluster in Tennessee. Sept Infrastructure and the Tennessee Economy. August The Location Decision of Automotive Suppliers in Tennessee and the Southeast. June A Profile of the Automobile Sector in the U.S. and Southeastern States. June Examining Supply Gaps and Surpluses in the Automotive Cluster in Tennessee. May Economic Growth and the Williamson County Economy. December Economic & Fiscal Consequences of TVA s Lake Draw-Down of Cherokee & Douglas Lakes. October Adequacy of Tennessee s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund. July Economic Effects of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the Joint Institute for Neutron Sciences (JINS) on the State of Tennessee. February Economic Effects of The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Athletic Dept. September Business Recruitment & its Impact on Knoxville & Knox County Economies. May Economic & Fiscal Analysis of Industrial Development in Anderson County. March Occupational Wage and Benefit Survey. January The Nature & Consequences of Economic Development in the Loudon County Economy. April Natural Gas Transportation Constraints in Tennessee. August A Survey to Determine Insurance Status of Tennessee Residents. August Economic Impact of The University of Tennessee on the State of Tennessee: Academic Year 1992/93. June Measuring the Extent of Health Insurance Coverage in Tennessee. November Employment Security Issues. June Monopoly Leveraging Theory: Implications for Post-Divestiture Telecommunications Policy. March Design of Economic Development Incentives. November INTERESTED IN TRACKING THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY? In addition to the Tennessee Economic Overview, CBER publishes the Tennessee Business and Economic Outlook, a ly forecast update of the Tennessee and U.S. economies. Center for Business and Economic Research College of Business Administration The University of Tennessee Director William F. Fox Associate Director Matthew N. Murray Research Assistant Professor Donald J. Bruce Research Associate Staff Vickie C. Cunningham R. Brad Kiser Julie L. Marshall Joan M. Snoderly Angela R. Thacker Support Staff Stacia E. Couch Betty A. Drinnen Graduate Research Assistants John Deskins Brian Hill Tami Gurley Elizabeth Smeltzer Laura Ullrich Lydia Zhang For further information, contact CBER at 1000 Volunteer Blvd., 100 Glocker Bldg., Knoxville, Tennessee ; telephone (865) ; fax (865) Data reported herein are seasonally adjusted and therefore may not be directly comparable to data reported elsewhere. The five seasonally adjusted leading index components of the Tennessee index are: Tennessee construction employment, initial claims for Tennessee unemployment insurance, Tennessee inflationadjusted taxable sales, Tennessee average weekly manufacturing hours, and the U.S. Leading Index. UT Publication Authorization Number E Center for Business and Economic Research 11

12 Tennessee Business and Economic Outlook Fall 2004 edition now available. To request a copy, please contact the Center for Business and Economic Research at (865) This publication is also available on the CBER web site in Adobe pdf format. Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee January 2004 edition available. Published annually since 1975, this report provides an in-depth analysis of national and state economic development based on ten-year and ten- economic forecasts. Available on the CBER web site in Adobe pdf format. For these publications and other Tennessee economic data, please visit the CBER web site: Center for Business and Economic Research College of Business Administration The University of Tennessee 100 Glocker Building Knoxville, Tennessee Nonprofit Org. U.S. Postage Paid Permit #481 Knoxville, TN