ECONOMIC O V E R V I E W. October 2000 Index as of January 2001

Transcription

1 TE N N E S S E E ECONOMIC O V E R V I E W October 2000 Index as of January 2001 T E N N E S S E E FIGURE 1 Monthly Percent Change in the Tennessee Leading Index (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rate) Tennessee s economy began the final quarter of 2000 on a discouraging note. The state s leading index, an indicator of economic activity expected to occur in the next six to nine months, fell at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 8.8 percent in October to the lowest level since June On the heels of last month s strong rebound, the sharp drop wipes out all gains made by the leading index this year. In addition to the disappointing month-to-month decline, a look at the year-to-year percent change in Tennessee s leading index shows this year s October economy to be 0.3 percent (SAAR) behind the state s October 1999 performance. Four of the five component series of Tennessee s leading index performed poorly in October. Initial claims for unemployment insurance in the state soared to 39,323, an increase from September s level of 6,964 claims. This is the CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE highest number of monthly initial claims reported since January After two consecutive months of gains, inflation-adjusted taxable sales fell $249 million in October. This 39.4 percent (SAAR) decrease brings the level of inflation-adjusted taxable sales down to $5.9 billion and erases the gains made in August and September. Other negative contributors to Tennessee s October index were construction employment and the U.S. leading index. Construction employment slipped 0.9 percent (SAAR) with the loss of 100 jobs. The U.S. leading index continued to struggle, dipping in October by 3.4 percent (SAAR) to the lowest level this calendar year. The final component series in the Tennessee leading index, average weekly manufacturing hours, made a weak advance in October with an increase of 1.3 percent (SAAR). Data from the Tennessee labor market that are not used in the calculation of the leading index offer little encouraging news this month. The steep rise in (Continued on page 2.) INSIDE TN ECONOMIC DATA... 3 U.S. ECONOMIC DATA... 4 MSA PERSPECTIVE... 5 CHATTANOOGA... 6 KNOXVILLE... 7 MEMPHIS... 8 NASHVILLE... 9 TRI-CITIES SELECTED CBER PUBLICATIONS. 11

2 (Continued from page 1.) the number of new jobless claims in October is evidenced by the second consecutive monthly decline in total nonagricultural employment. Until September s loss of 11,600 jobs, the level of total nonagricultural employment had suffered only one setback since September Unfortunately, October s additional loss of 3,400 jobs pushes total nonagricultural employment back to nearly the same level as April of this year. Jobs in Tennessee s manufacturing sector continued to fade in October, decreasing 5.1 percent (SAAR). This loss of 2,200 jobs drops manufacturing employment to the lowest level since July The only bright spot in Tennessee s labor market was the one-tenth percentage point decline in the state s unemployment rate. In October, the unemployment rate for Tennessee was 3.7 percent. A look at data for the national economy is also discouraging this month. October s 3.4 percent (SAAR) drop in the U.S. leading index reflects a cooling off in the pace of growth seen earlier this year. For nine consecutive months, the leading index has either been flat or declining. This month s decline was primarily the result of fewer new orders for consumer goods from manufacturers and falling stock prices. Another negative force on the U.S. leading index in October came as a result of soaring initial claims for unemployment insurance that increased by 144,700. Despite this jump in initial claims, U.S. total nonagricultural employment rose slightly by 0.7 percent (SAAR) and the national unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent. For the second time this year, evidence of a softening national economy showed up in the U.S. coincident index. After 13 months of continuous gains, the U.S. coincident index dipped 1.0 percent (SAAR) in October. The chief negative contributors were declines in personal income and industrial production. Personal income decreased for the first time this year, falling 1.5 percent (SAAR) in October. Not surprisingly, the index of consumer sentiment decreased for the third straight time, dropping 10.7 percent. October was clearly not a strong month for either the state or national economy. Signs of a slowdown in economic activity are becoming more apparent with the release of each new data series. While the interest rate reduction engineered by the Federal Reserve in early 2001 offers some hope, economic conditions will likely remain weak at best through the early summer of FIGURE 2 Tennessee Quarterly Leading Index FIGURE 3 Total Nonagricultural Employment FIGURE 4 Real Personal Income (1996 Dollars) 2

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5 Overall, October was a disappointing month for economic activity in four of the five largest Tennessee metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). As shown in Figure 5, all MSA leading indices suffered setbacks in October except for Nashville. Inflation-adjusted taxable sales posted losses in every MSA except Memphis where the level grew only 9.5 percent (SAAR). Labor market data from the MSA areas were mixed in October. While total nonagricultural employment was down in three of the five MSAs, the series was able to grow by only 1.7 and 1.0 percent (SAAR) in Knoxville and the Tri- Cities, respectively. Manufacturing employment lost ground in October in all areas except for Memphis where it advanced 5.0 percent (SAAR). On the bright side, construction employment grew in every area except Nashville. Changes in the MSA unemployment rates were mostly positive in October. Figure 7 shows that while Nashville held steady, the jobless rate in Knoxville, Memphis, the Tri-Cities decreased in October. Chattanooga was the only area to experience a slight increase of one-tenth of a percentage point. FIGURE 6 MSA Employment Growth October 2000 FIGURE 5 MSA Index Growth October 2000 FIGURE 7 MSA Unemployment Rate October 2000 (seasonally adjusted) Tennessee s Largest MSAs 5

6 The Chattanooga Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) index of leading economic activity lost ground again in October, falling 1.8 percent (SAAR). After an entire third quarter of monthly setbacks, this decline is especially disappointing. In addition, the year-toyear percent change in Chattanooga s leading index was down for the fourth consecutive month, falling 1.2 percent (SAAR) in October. Advances made by two of the four components of the Chattanooga area s leading index were not strong enough to halt the index s continuing slide. Average weekly hours in the manufacturing sector rebounded nicely from last month s sharp drop with a jump of 13.8 percent (SAAR) to 40.2 hours per week. After two straight months of setbacks, the level of construction employment advanced 12.2 percent (SAAR) with the addition of 100 jobs. Negative pressure on Chattanooga s index came from a 10.6 percent contraction in inflation-adjusted taxable sales and an 8.8 percent drop in Tennessee s leading index. Signals from the local labor market as reflected in data that are not used to calculate the Chattanooga leading index offer little reason for optimism this month. Despite an increase in average weekly manufacturing hours, the level of employment in Chattanooga s manufacturing sector dipped 0.3 percent (SAAR) in October. Following last month s weak advance of 0.1 percent (SAAR), total nonagricultural employment in Chattanooga decreased 3.2 percent (SAAR). This loss of 630 jobs is the largest monthly drop in employment in the area this calendar year. An increase in the unemployment rate of one-tenth of a percentage point is also discouraging. Chattanooga s unemployment rate of 3.1 percent in October is the highest rate since December Chattanooga s economy began the year with a volatile first quarter but gradually improved over the second quarter to yield a high for the area s economic index of in May/June. Unfortunately, all gains made were then negated by the economy s poor third quarter performance. Growth of the Chattanooga MSA economy will depend on the area s ability to sustain positive advancement in construction employment and on improvement in inflation-adjusted taxable sales. Unfortunately, the state s leading index suggests this may not take place. Expect the area economy to be flat or to contract slightly through spring. 3?! "#$%&&&&&&&&&&,!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&.01,2. --#'%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!+!56123,7*/#%&&&&&&&&&&&, /-.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-(&&;7*7,48,* --/-:/& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-( //0*-. -,4+ 7& FIGURE 8 Chattanooga Quarterly Leading Index 6

7 After struggling through the third quarter of 2000, the Knoxville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) index of leading economic activity started the fourth quarter off badly with a 8.3 percent (SAAR) drop. October s leading index was pushed down by losses in two of its four component series. The big loser this month was inflation-adjusted taxable sales. After posting a strong gain in September, inflation-adjusted taxable sales fell 48.3 percent (SAAR) in October. The other negative component, the Tennessee leading index, dropped 8.8 percent (SAAR) for the month. Positive contributions to Knoxville s leading index came by way of increases in construction employment and average weekly manufacturing hours. Building on September s strong gain, construction employment advanced in October by 19.7 percent (SAAR) with the addition of 200 new jobs. Average weekly manufacturing hours rebounded after slipping two straight months with a 5.5 percent (SAAR) gain in October to 39.9 hours per week. Unfortunately, the advances made by these two series were not strong enough to offset the negative pressures from the downturns in inflation-adjusted taxable sales and the state s leading index. Fortunately, other labor market data not used in the calculation of the Knoxville leading index offer a few more encouraging signals for the month. Total nonagricultural employment rose for the fifth straight month with an increase of 1.7 percent (SAAR) in October. Despite this gain, the level of total nonagricultural employment in the Knoxville area remains below the level from the same month a year ago. Since June there have been fewer nonagricultural jobs in the Knoxville MSA than there were in After holding steady at 2.9 percent for the past three months, the Knoxville unemployment rate decreased two-tenths of a percentage point to 2.7 percent in October, a full percentage point less than Tennessee s unemployment rate of 3.7 percent. However, this month the Knoxville area economy was not able to halt job loss in the manufacturing sector. In October, the level of manufacturing employment declined for the third consecutive month by 0.7 percent (SAAR). This month s decline in Knoxville s leading index exemplifies the problem that most areas of the state are grappling with sustaining growth in times of near full employment. The situation has been complicated by a slowdown in national and state economic activity. Progress in the short-term will depend on Knoxville s ability to sustain advancement in total nonagricultural employment, particularly in manufacturing which in turn depends heavily on strength in the national economy. All available evidence suggests growth will continue to be sluggish into early summer. ABC! "#$%&&&&&&&&&&,!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&.01,2. --#'%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!+!56123,7*/#%&&&&&&&&&&&, /-.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-(&&;7*7,48,* --/-:/& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-( //0*-. -,4+ 7& FIGURE 9 Knoxville Quarterly Leading Index 7

8 F ollowing two consecutive months of upward movement, October saw the index of leading economic activity for the Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) dive 21.3 percent (SAAR) to the lowest level this calendar year. A look at the year-to-year percent change in the leading index shows the Memphis economy to again be behind the rate of activity posted in the same month in 1999 for the second time this year. This month s downturn in the leading index was chiefly engineered by a sharp drop in the Memphis help wanted index. October s help wanted index dipped to 75.0, the lowest level since April Two other component series of the Memphis leading index to lose ground this month were average weekly manufacturing hours and the Tennessee leading index. The average number of weekly manufacturing hours continued to slide for the third straight month, falling 4.5 percent (SAAR) to 40.3 hours per week. And the Tennessee leading index also declined in October by 8.8 percent (SAAR). The two remaining components of the Memphis leading index fared better in October. Construction employment was up in the area by 18.9 percent (SAAR) with the addition of 400 new jobs, and inflation-adjusted taxable sales rebounded from last month s slip by advancing 9.5 percent (SAAR). The inflation-adjusted taxable sales series for Memphis has had a volatile performance record this year, marked by more losses than gains. Since April 2000, the monthly level of taxable sales in the area has been less than the level of sales for the same month one year ago. Labor market data for the Memphis MSA emit mixed signals this month. Despite the strong 18.9 percent (SAAR) increase in construction employment and a 5.0 percent (SAAR) increase in manufacturing employment, total nonagricultural employment for the area slipped by 2.9 percent (SAAR) in October. A slight dip in the Memphis unemployment rate of one-tenth of a percentage point also appears converse to this month s contraction in total nonagricultural employment. The Memphis area posted an unemployment rate of 3.7 percent in October, the same rate as that of the state. First quarter 2000 progress of the Memphis leading index was cancelled out in the second quarter by broadly based setbacks in the component series. In the third quarter, the improved performance of several component series was strong enough to allow the index to recover some lost ground. In light of this recent history, October s decline once again raises concerns that the local economy may be reverting to a period of sluggish performance, if not contraction. Unless Memphis can sustain the recent advances made by construction employment and inflation-adjusted taxable sales, the short-term outlook for the area remains guarded at best. )3! "#$%&&&&&&&&&&,!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&.01,2. --#'%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!+!56123,7*/#%&&&&&&&&&&&, /-.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&& "#$%#%&&&& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-(&&;7*7,48,* --/-:/& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-( //0*-. -,4+ 7& #%,7*:(, 4* :;,* FIGURE 10 Memphis Quarterly Leading Index 8

9 P ropelled upward by a spike in the average number of weekly manufacturing hours, the Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) index of leading economic activity climbed for the second consecutive month by 4.0 percent (SAAR) in October. Despite back-to-back advancements, a look at the year-to-year percent change in the Nashville index shows October s Nashville economy to still be behind the level of activity that occurred in the same month a year ago. The Nashville MSA leading index is comprised of five component series. As stated above, the sole positive mover in October was the average weekly manufacturing hours series. While a second series, the Nashville help wanted index was unchanged in October, the three remaining component series all suffered setbacks. Inflation-adjusted taxable sales lost the most ground falling 29.7 percent (SAAR). Unfortunately, October s decrease in taxable sales cancelled out increases made by the series over the past two months. Similarly, the loss of 300 jobs in the construction sector in October wiped out September s gain and dropped the level of construction employment back to about the same level as June The final negative component series, the Tennessee leading index, fell 8.8 percent (SAAR) in October. Little encouraging news may be found in the October Nashville MSA labor market data. Normally a strong performer, total nonagricultural employment slipped by 3.4 percent (SAAR) for the month with the loss of 2,000 jobs only the second monthly setback in this series during the 2000 calendar year. Nearly a quarter of these jobs disappeared from the manufacturing sector where 520 jobs were cut in October for a loss of 6.2 percent (SAAR). As stated above, construction employment also dropped 9.6 percent (SAAR). There is one positive piece of news though. Despite this month s setbacks in employment, the Nashville MSA unemployment rate held steady in October at 2.8 percent, well below Tennessee s unemployment rate of 3.7 percent. After suffering through a rough second quarter, Nashville s economy was able to end the third quarter of 2000 on a good note with an 8.5 percent (SAAR) increase in its leading index in September. October s leading index increase does come as encouraging news. If inflationadjusted taxable sales rebound and if broadbased weaknesses do not develop in the Nashville labor market, expectations for the area s economy are guardedly positive. 3C! "#$%&&&&&&&&&&,!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&.01,2. --#'%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!+!56123,7*/#%&&&&&&&&&&&, /-.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&& "#$%#%&&&& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-(&&;7*7,48,* --/-:/& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-( //0*-. -,4+ 7& #%,7*:(, 4* :;,* FIGURE 11 Nashville Quarterly Leading Index 9

10 Weakened by losses in two of its four component series, the index of leading economic activity for the Tri-Cities Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) fell 5.6 percent (SAAR) in October. Also, the year-to-year percent change in the Tri-Cities s leading index was down for the third consecutive month, falling 1.2 percent (SAAR) in October. Following two consecutive months of gains, inflation-adjusted taxable sales dropped 23.1 percent (SAAR) in October, a month-to-month decrease of $7 million. The other negative component series, the Tennessee leading index, fell 8.8 percent (SAAR). On the positive side, the average number of weekly manufacturing hours increased for the second straight month, up 11.2 percent (SAAR) in October. The construction employment series for the Tri-Cities area continued to perform well by posting a gain of 6.0 percent (SAAR) in October with the addition of 100 jobs. This is the fourth consecutive month to see added jobs in the construction sector. However, in spite of this string of advances, a look at the year-toyear percent change in construction employment reveals that the monthly level of construction employment has been down in the area since January 2000 when compared to the same month one year ago. Other labor market data not used in the compilation of the Tri-Cities leading index offer encouraging signals this month. Total nonagricultural employment rose for the second straight month increasing 1.0 percent (SAAR) with the addition of 200 jobs in October. Fortunately, the level of total nonagricultural employment in the Tri-Cities area remains marginally better than the level from the same month a year ago. After reaching the highest level this year of 4.6 percent in September, the Tri-Cities unemployment rate dropped by 1.1 percentage points in October. This decrease brings the rate of unemployment in the Tri-Cities down to 3.5 percent, two-tenths of a percentage point less than Tennessee s unemployment rate of 3.7 percent. This is the first time this year that the Tri-Cities unemployment rate has been less than the state s rate. Unfortunately, manufacturing employment in the area continued to slip for the third straight month. With 300 jobs lost in October, the level of manufacturing employment in the Tri-Cities decreased 6.0 percent (SAAR). The Tri-Cities economy managed to end the third quarter of 2000 on a good note with a 12.1 percent (SAAR) increase in its leading index. Unfortunately, that gain was preceded by five downturns during the past 9 months. Optimistic expectations for the short-term depend on whether the area can improve inflation-adjusted taxables sales and sustain current advances in employment. In light of recent setbacks in manufacturing employment and the inherent volatility of taxable sales, expect little if any growth in the coming months.! "#$%&&&&&&&&&&,!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&.01,2. --#'%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&&&& 4!+!56123,7*/#%&&&&&&&&&&&, /-.01,2. -#3%#%&&&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&&&&& "811/# 9%#%&&& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-(&&;7*7,48,* --/-:/& #%1:71-4*,.-0*,+82-( //0*-. -,4+ 7& FIGURE 12 Tri-Cities Quarterly Leading Index 10

11 Center for Business and Economic Research College of Business Administration The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Director William F. Fox Associate Director Matthew N. Murray Assistant Professor Donald J. Bruce Research Associates Vickie C. Cunningham Paula Dowell Patricia A. Price Joan M. Snoderly Angela R. Thacker Betty B. Vickers Word Processing Specialist Pat A. Hunley Program Resource Specialist Betty A. Drinnen Graduate Research Assistants Karie A. Barbour John Dupree Sanela Porca Student Assistants Jason M. Fletcher Jonathan P. McKernan Ryan L. Russell For further information, contact CBER at 1000 Volunteer Blvd., Suite 100 Glocker Bldg., Knoxville, TN ; telephone (865) ; fax (865) Data reported herein are seasonally adjusted, and therefore may not be directly comparable to data reported elsewhere. The five seasonally adjusted leading index components are Tennessee construction employment, initial claims for Tennessee unemployment insurance, the U.S. leading index, inflationadjusted taxable sales and Tennessee manufacturing hours. See the Fall 1988 issue of the Survey of Business or the 1994 Economic Report to the Governor for a complete discussion of the methodology underlying the Tennessee economic indices. UTK Printing Authorization No. E Selected Economic Publications from CBER The Location Decision of Automotive Suppliers in Tennessee and the Southeast. June A Profile of the Automobile Sector in the U.S., and Southeastern States. June Examining Supply Gaps and Surpluses in the Automotive Cluster in Tennessee. May The Economic Benefits of the U.S. Department of Energy for the State of Tennessee, Fiscal Year April An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee on the State s Economic Outlook. Annual. A Study of the Changing Staffing Patterns in the Tennessee Department of Human Services in Response to Families First. August Adequacy of Tennessee s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund. July Attitudes of Families First Recipients. May The Impact of TennCare: A Survey of Recipients. March Tennesseans Attitudes Toward Learning and the Workplace. March Economic Effects of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the Joint Institute for Neutron Sciences (JINS) on the State of Tennessee. February Economic Effects of The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Athletic Department. September Business Recruitment and its Impact on the Knoxville and Knox County Economies. May An Economic and Fiscal Analysis of Industrial Development in Anderson County. March Analysis of the Basic Education Formula: Evaluation of its Stability, Equity, and Adequacy. February Tennessee Statistical Abstract. January Biennial. Occupational Wage and Benefit Survey. January The Nature and Consequences of Economic Development in the Loudon County Economy. April Aid to Families with Dependent Children: 1995 Case Characteristics Study. January Survey of Health Care Status. November Natural Gas Transportation Constraints in Tennessee. August A Survey to Determine Insurance Status of Tennessee Residents. August Economic Impact of The University of Tennessee on the State of Tennessee: Academic Year 1992/93. June Measuring the Extent of Health Insurance Coverage in Tennessee. November Employment Security Issues. June Monopoly Leveraging Theory: Implications for Post-Divestiture Telecommunications Policy. March Design of Economic Development Incentives. November Factors to Consider in the Design of Economic Development Incentives. September Rural Economic Prospects: Implications of Economic Forecasts for the South. April Evaluation of the Methodology for Computing the Standard of Need for the Aid to Families with Dependent Children Program in Tennessee. November INTERESTED IN TRACKING THE TENNESSEE ECONOMY? In addition to the Tennessee Economic Overview, CBER publishes the Tennessee Business and Economic Outlook, a quarterly forecast update of the Tennessee and U.S. economies. CBER also produces the Southeast Economic Outlook, which can be found in the Southeast Section of the Wall Street Journal. This article provides an economic forecast for Tennessee and selected Southeastern states. 11

12 NOW AVAILABLE! 2000 TENNESSEE STATISTICAL ABSTRACT Updated with the most current statistical information! A valuable reference for speakers, writers, executives, public officials or anyone with questions about Tennessee. If you conduct business, work, study or live in Tennessee, the Tennessee Statistical Abstract is the reference you cannot afford to be without. Economic and demographic data are presented in easy-to-read tables, maps and graphs for Tennessee counties and cities, as well as Southeastern states. The Abstract may be purchased as a soft-bound book or on diskette in Lotus. Please contact the Center for Business and Economic Research at (865) to order your copy now. The Abstract is now available free of charge on the CBER web site in Lotus worksheets at: For further Tennessee economic data, please visit our Internet site at Center for Business and Economic Research College of Business Administration The University of Tennessee 100 Glocker Building Knoxville, Tennessee Nonprofit Org. U.S. Postage Paid Permit #481 Knoxville, TN