Delivering the pulse of the nation to you

Transcription

1 Delivering the pulse of the nation to you A quarterly newsletter from TNS Canada WINTER 2010

2 lindices U.S. Indices Canadian Regional Indices About The CCI Study About The CCI Study Director

3 Indices Holiday Cheer not Enough to Inspire Canadians on the Economy When the Consumer Confidence Index showed six months of steady gains and passed the psychologically important point mark in April 2010, it appeared that positive momentum was going to hold for That has not turned out to be the case. In the second half of the year, except for a small upticks in August and November, the index has softened slightly, settling in the 96 point range. Consumers remain uninspired and are adopting a skeptical, show me the money attitude. While confidence has largely l rebounded since the low of two years ago, consumer confidence is still shaky and they are unwilling to express that unbridled optimism which would really push the economy forward Consumer Confidence Index

4 Indices Consumers Remain Stubbornly Skeptical about the Current Economic Situation With the exception of the Buy Index which historically has exhibited strength in the fourth quarter, the twootherother sub indices both ended the quarter pointing down. For example, the Present Situation Index, which captures feelings toward the present day economy and the employment situation, continues to show consumer skepticism. Consumers appear to be waiting for tangible improvements to which h they can relate before they endorse the state of the economy with higher levels of confidence. 130 Present Situation Index

5 Indices Better Sense of Optimism Regarding g the Six-month Outlook The Expectations Index, which measures consumers estimation ofthe economy, household income and employment in the next six months, also remained relatively stagnant in the fourth quarter; however, the good news is that this index continues to track above that of the present situation index, which indicates some sense of optimism that the economy is eventually going to improve they re just not seeing it yet. Expectations Index

6 Indices A Little Holiday Spirit was there After All Buying Intentions for Major Purchases on the Upswing The Buy Index, which gauges the degree to which people think the current period is a good time to make major purchases, is showing continued signs of life, and if consumers begin to act on these intentions, could provide the jolt that consumers are looking for to feel more optimistic about the here and now. So all in all, while Canadians are considerably more positive than they were two years ago, they still want to see the goods before their confidence returns to those pre recession levels Buy Index

7 lindices U.S. Indices Canadian Regional Indices About The CCI Study About The CCI Study Director

8 U.S. Indices U.S. Consumers Remain Very Pessimistic While Canadians remain skeptical and cautiously optimistic about the near future, Americans have yet to see any signs of hope in their economy. The wide gulf that separates American and Canadian economic confidence continued during the last quarter: While the gap was a shade more than 35 in April, the difference continued to be over 40 points through the second half of the year. With the exception of a flicker of hope in April and May, it is clear that Americans are far from optimistic. While the overall Consumer Confidence Index gained 17.3 points between February and May, it turned around and dropped 14.7 points by the end of September. October showed a marginal increase to 50.2, followed another slight increase to 54.3 in November, but a softening in December to 52.5, closing the year marginally below bl that t of The second quarter bounce back may have given credence to Mr. Obama s Summer of Recovery plan, but that rebound was unfortunately short lived. Indeed, the confidence scores are very similar to those observed in December 2009, suggesting g that American consumers are still haunted, not surprisingly, by the numerous foreclosures, ballooning public debt, and especially the extremely and stubbornly high unemployment rate. Note: The U.S. US Consumer Confidence Index is produced dby the Conference Board. The Conference Board is not responsible for the interpretation of the results provided herein Consumer Confidence Index United States

9 U.S. Indices Consumers Continue to Feel Very Down about their Current Situation The results of the Present Situation Index also continue to disappoint after reaching a high of30.2 in May, it fell to 23.3 by end of September, and closed the year at essentially the same level (23.5), only slightly ahead of the disastrous Q levels. Present Situation Index 145 United States

10 U.S. Indices Expectations for the Next Six Months Show Little Optimism Likewise, the steep rise seen in the Expectations Index has also evaporated. After rising from63.8 in February to 85.3 in May, it fell to 65.5 by end of September. Small upticks in each of October and November were followed by a softening in December, ending the year at 71.9, 3.7 points lower than a year ago. 140 Expectations Index United States

11 lindices U.S. Indices Canadian Regional Indices About The CCI Study About The CCI Study Director

12 Canadian Regional Indices Confidence Shows Signs of Improvement in Ontario and the West Even though the rolling, three month average used in the regional results reduces the impact of any one month, the profiles of the different regions show a high degree of similarity. Almost all regions on almost all measures have one main thing in common the downward declines in the curves since the second quarter have generally halted, and upticks now outnumber the downturns. While they are still far from optimistic, indeed, are less positive than in the first half of the year, consumers report that the economy is performing btt better than in The overall Consumer Confidence Index trended up marginally during the fourth quarter, with small improvements noted in Alberta, BC and Ontario. That being said, confidence on the Prairies (Alberta and Manitoba/Saskatchewan) remained above the national average likely due to higher oil and commodity prices, while confidence on both coasts (BC and Atlantic Canada) lags the national average. In Ontario confidence rose ever so slightly, bringing the province in line with the national result. Western Canada Consumer Confidence Index Atlantic Canada Consumer Confidence Index Alberta British Columbia Manitoba/Saskatchewan Central Canada Consumer Confidence Index Atlantic Ontario Quebec

13 Canadian Regional Consumer Confidence Indices Prairie Consumers Remain More Upbeat than Elsewhere The Present Situation Index showed somewhat greater pessimism in the results. With the exception of a small uptick in B.C., the western provinces are generally flat, with only Man/Sask and Alberta remaining above the national average. Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Ontario all show slight weakening. 150 Western Canada Atlantic Canada Present Situation Index 130 Present Situation Index Alberta British Columbia Manitoba/Saskatchewan Monthly value is average for three previous months Ontario Quebec Central Canada Present Situation Index Atlantic 70

14 Canadian Regional Consumer Confidence Indices Quebecers Remain Sour About Longer-term Prospects As noted in the third quarter, the Expectations Index continues to show somewhat greater variability between the regions. BC, Ontario and Atlantic Canada are showing some indications of economic optimism over the next six months. Quebecers, however, unfortunately don t share this cautiously optimistic view and continued to trend downward, d trailing the national average. Western Canada Expectations Index Atlantic Canada Expectations Index Alberta British Columbia Manitoba/Saskatchewan Central Canada Expectations Index Atlantic 14 Monthly value is average for three previous months Ontario Quebec

15 Canadian Regional Buy Indices Buying Intentions Split Right Down the Middle: Ontario and West Up, Quebec and East Down With regard to the Buy Index, the country appears to be split right down the middle, with Canadians in Ontario and points West indicating greater propensity to make large purchases, while Quebec and East are tending to hold off on their big ticket purchases a while longer likely seeking greater comfort in their economic surroundings. Western Canada Buy Index Alberta British Columbia Manitoba/Saskatchewan Atlantic Canada Buy Index 70 Central Canada Buy Index 70 Atlantic 15 Monthly value is average for three previous months 70 Ontario Quebec

16 lindices U.S. Indices Canadian Regional Indices About The CCI Study About The CCI Study Director

17 About the CCI Study Seven questions make up the core survey of Consumer Confidence. The overall CCI index uses all 7 questions to produce an index score. Scores for each of the three sub indices are calculated from some of the questions, as noted below. TNS has been conducting the CCI study since July In May 2005, all the index scores were set to and so the upward and downward changes in the scores since then should be read in relation to that benchmark. CCI Index: Includes all 7 variables Present Situation Index: How would you describe your country's current economic situation? How would you describe your country's current employment situation? Expectations Index: What do you think will be your country's economic situation in the next 6 months? What do you think will be your country's employment situation in the next 6 months? What do you think your income will be in 6 months time? Buy Index: Taking into consideration the cost of things today and the financial situation in general, to what extent would you say that now is a good or bad time to buy products such as: a house or apartment, a car, household appliances such as a washing machine, a refrigerator, a TV set etc.? 17

18 lindices U.S. Indices Canadian Regional Indices About The CCI Study About The CCI Study Director

19 About the CCI Study Director About Norman Baillie David, MBA, CMRP: Norman ( Norm ) Baillie David is Vice President and Director of Public Opinion Research, Head of Qualitative Research for TNS Canada, and he leads the TNS office in the Capital Region. Norm also sits on the TNS Global Steering Committee for Political and Social Research. Norm is a seasoned market researcher and bilingual focus group moderator, with more than twenty five years of experience in market ktand social ilresearch and strategy t development. As a bilingual l and bicultural l Montrealer originally, ii Norman is one of those rare researchers who conducts research in a seamless and transparent manner among both English and French Canadians, with each group believing that he is one of their own. The result is a keen insider s perspective on sentiments across the country among both English and French. Having conducted more than 1,000 surveys and many more focus groups, Norm is constantly abreast of what Canadian consumers across the country are thinking and feeling about their prospects. Norm has designed and managed more than 1,000 surveys in a wide variety of areas, ranging from high technology to consumer products, and Norman is a recognized expert in complex survey methodology design and multivariate statistical analysis. He is in frequent demand by the media and market research industry in Canada to speak on the comparisons and contrasts of public opinion in Quebec and the rest of Canada, and has published widely. In addition, Norm has conducted assignments in more than 40 different countries around the world, and has a keen interest in cross cultural issues, especially related to public opinion and the use of technology. Before joining TNS Canada, Norm was Managing Partner of an Ottawa based public opinion research and management consulting firm ( ). He spent most of his preceding career at the management consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers/Coopers & Lybrand, as well as three years with a well known Quebec market research firm. He is a Certified Marketing Research Professional (CMRP), member of the Market Research Intelligence Association (MRIA), and he served as a President of the Ottawa Chapter from 2002 to If you would like to add proprietary questions to the CCI study, obtain full tabular results, receive a historical time series for all the index scores, or if you have other inquiries about CCI, please contact: Norman Baillie David (613) , x101 norman.baillie david@tnsglobal.com 19