Canadian Attitudes Towards Climate Change: Spring 2003 Tracking Study

Transcription

1 Canadian Attitudes Towards Climate Change: Spring 2003 Tracking Study FINAL REPORT March 2003 Submitted to: Strategic Communications and Issues Management Environment Canada EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES INC.

2 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Ottawa Office 99 Metcalfe Street, Suite 1100 Ottawa, Ontario K1P 6L7 Tel: (613) Fax: (613) Toronto Office 480 University Avenue, Suite 1006 Toronto, Ontario M5G 1V2 Tel: (416) Fax: (416) Edmonton Office th St. NW, Suite 606 Edmonton, Alberta T5K 2J8 Tel: (780) Fax: (780)

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction Background Methodology Findings Awareness and Support Government of Canada Position Communications Impacts of Kyoto Personal Actions EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003 i

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5 KEY FINDINGS Awareness and Support Canadians stated familiarity of the Kyoto Protocol is modest, with only half reporting any level of familiarity and one-in-five saying they are very familiar. This number has remained stable since the fall of last year. Support for Canadian ratification of Kyoto is strong (80% support) and has also remained stable since last fall. Support is up since last fall in Alberta (now at 56%) and Saskatchewan (65%), the provinces which have shown the lowest public support for ratification throughout the past six months. Repeating the support question after respondents have been exposed to arguments both in favour of and against ratification reinforces this stability in support, with little observable change in support. The Government of Canada Plan for Climate Change Awareness of the Government of Canada s plan for climate change is up perceptibly since last fall (with close to six-in-ten now saying they recall the plan, up 8 percentage points). We also find somewhat lower agreement with arguments criticizing the federal plan, suggesting that Canadians have been paying greater attention. Personal Actions Respondents report being likely to take a number of personal actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with little change when the idea of government assistance is presented. Other research, however, suggests that personal actions may in fact be more contingent on some form assistance, especially more involved ventures such as household retrofits. EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003 iii

6 We also find a certain degree of trepidation with respect to how much Canadians feel they are still able to do on reducing emissions with a majority feeling that they can make some lifestyle changes to reduce emissions, but not too many. Qualitative research from last fall would suggest that the costs of some initiatives and actions which have already been taken may lead some to question whether they can in fact take the one tonne challenge. Impacts Most Canadians feel Kyoto will have positive impacts on Canada s environment and the health of the population. Views become more mixed when considering economic impacts, with the most negative impacts believed to be coming in the price Canadians pay for energy. Communications The most engaging arguments in favour of Kyoto focus on protection of the next generation, the need for all nations to act together and the urgency argument: that action is required as the climate is already changing in serious ways. We still find one-in-two who agree that unique Canadian solutions are required as opposed to Kyoto. iv EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

7 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND In light of varying and often times conflicting reports of public perception around the issue of climate change and the Kyoto Protocol, Environment Canada and Natural Resources Canada identified a need for sound information on current public opinion in order to direct policy and communications efforts. The research was designed to solicit Canadians views on a wide variety of issues related to climate change and the Kyoto Protocol. The survey featured a number of tracking items from fieldwork carried out in 2002 as well as a number of new indicators. Awareness of the Kyoto protocol; Support for the Kyoto Protocol; Reaction to arguments; and Credibility of sources for information on climate change and the Kyoto Protocol. 1.2 METHODOLOGY The findings presented in this report are based on 2,023 telephone interviews conducted from March 18 26, At the pan-canadian level this sample size provides results with an error margin of +/- 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Error margins for sub-groups are larger. Where available, tracking data from the October to December 2002 is also included. The survey instrument and data tables are included as appendices to this report. EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

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9 2. FINDINGS 2.1 AWARENESS AND SUPPORT Reported familiarity with the Kyoto protocol is modest, with just one-in-five Canadians reporting that they are very familiar with Kyoto, rising to one-in-two when we include those saying they are somewhat familiar. These numbers have remained fairly consistent since last fall. Familiarity with Kyoto Q: How familiar are you with something called the Kyoto Agreement or Protocol? Please use a 5-point scale, where 1 means not at all familiar and 5 means very familiar. March Oct-Dec DK/NR Not familiar (1-2) Moderately familiar (3-5) Familiar (4-5) {Base: All Respondents} As with stated familiarity on most public policy issues, we find that some demographic groups express higher familiarity, including: older Canadians (64 per cent of those under 25 report being unfamiliar, falling to 40 per cent of those aged 65 and over); those with higher levels of educational attainment (61% of those with high school educations say they are unfamiliar versus just 31% of those with university educations); and Albertans, who express the highest familiarity (33% very familiar, 35% somewhat familiar). EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

10 Public support for Canada s ratification of the Kyoto protocol is high and up slightly since last fall, with just 14 per cent who offer any measure of opposition and 80 per cent who supportratification. Support for Kyoto Q: In 1997, the world s major industrialized countries agreed to specific targets of greenhouse gas reductions known as the Kyoto Agreement or Protocol. For Canada to reach its Kyoto targets will require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by they year Do you support or oppose? March Oct-Dec DK/NR* Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose Somewhat support Strongly support {Note: DK/NR includes those who volunteered a neutral position} {Base: All Respondents} 4 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

11 Provincially, Albertans (39% oppose) and residents of Saskatchewan (23%) stand out as being least in favour of Kyoto (although both provinces still exhibit majority support). Support among Albertans is now at its highest level since tracking began in mid- October of last year. Support in Saskatchewan also appears to be on the rise, while British Columbians support appears to have stabilized at the national average following a good deal of volatility last year.. Tracking Support Q: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Canada committing to the Kyoto Agreement? 100% Note: 3 month gap/not to scale 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 79% 79% 73% 69% 60% 46% %! % # 81% 80% 65% 54% 40% 30% 40% 20% Canada BC Alberta Sask 10% 0% October November December March % saying strongly/somewhat support EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

12 The same support question was included at the end of the survey in order to gauge the impact of the intervening questions, which included arguments both in favour of and against Kyoto. We find a modest drop in the intensity of support (with some migration from strongly support to somewhat support ), while the overall level of support remained stable. Support for Kyoto Pre and Post Measures Q: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Canada committing to the Kyoto Agreement? Initial question Follow-up question DK/NR* Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose Somewhat support Strongly support {Note: DK/NR includes those who volunteered a neutral position} {Base: All Respondents} 6 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

13 Canadians give both senior levels of Government fairly tepid approval ratings in terms of their handling of climate change and Kyoto, with the federal government garnering higher positives (38%) than provincial governments (23%). As presented below, we find that the tendency to see the federal government in a somewhat more positive light on this issue is close to a pan- Canadian phenomenon, with Alberta being the only outlier. Performance Rating by Region Q: How would you rate the performance of the Government of Canada/your Provincial government in terms of its handling of issues like climate change and the Kyoto agreement? Federal Provincial Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Man./Sask Alberta B.C Poor Neither Good {Base: All Respondents} EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

14 2.2 GOVERNMENT OF CANADA POSITION Stated recall of the Government of Canada s plan on climate change is up markedly since last fall. We now find close to six-in-ten Canadians saying they either clearly (23%) or vaguely (35%) recall the federal plan, up from just over four-in-ten (43%) last fall. Recall of Plan (i) Q: As you many know, on November 21 st, 2002, the Government of Canada released its plan for achieving its climate change targets. Do you recall seeing, hearing or reading anything about this plan? Yes, clearly Yes, vaguely No 23% 17% 35% 29% 42% 54% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Oct-Dec 2002 March 2003 {Base: All Respondents} Stated recall of the Government of Canada plan is highest among those groups who also express familiarity with the Kyoto Protocol: the university educated (33% clearly, 38% vaguely) and those with household incomes greater than $80,000 (34%, 37%). 8 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

15 Those reporting some level of recall were asked which specific elements of the plan they remembered. Just more than one-quarter (28%, up 5 points since last fall) report the commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as an element which stands out in their mind. Six per cent (stable since the fall) report that the commitment to ratify is the main element they recall. Roughly one-in-three of those expressing recall report elements which would seem to be less elements of the plan than critiques of the federal position: the vagueness of the plan (15%), federal provincial disagreements over climate change (11%) and negative impacts for jobs and the economy (4%). A bare plurality (31%, down somewhat since last fall) could offer no specific elements. Recall of Plan (ii) Q: Can you tell me what, if anything, do you remember about this plan? Reduce greenhouse gas Vagueness/no firm plan Provincial/federal dispute Commit to ratify Negative for economy Other DK/NR 6% 6% 4% 6% 6% 4% 15% 14% 11% 12% 22% 28% 31% 36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% {Base:Those who recall the plan} Oct-Dec 2002 March 2003 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

16 Following a brief description of the federal plan and targets, respondents were asked the extent to which they felt these were achievable. The results show that most Canadians feel the targets are at least somewhat achievable, with those saying to a great extent (17%) outnumbering those saying to little extent (9%) by a margin of two-to one. Seven-in-ten (72%) feel that the actions and targets of the plan are achievable to a moderate extent. Achievable Targets? Q: To what extent do you think the actions and targets for individual Canadians laid out in the plan can be achieved? DK/NR Little extent (1-2) Moderate extent (3-5) Large extent (6-7) {Base: All Respondents} 10 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

17 There is a great deal of uncertainty about the current status of the Protocol in Canada. While half (50%) of all Canadians surveyed believe that it has been ratified, close to four-in-ten (38%) believe that the Government is still reviewing the matter. Awareness of ratification is highest among those groups expressing greater familiarity with Kyoto (older Canadians, those with higher levels of educational attainment, more affluent Canadians and Albertans). Awareness of Ratification Q: To the best of your knowledge, which of the following best represents the Government of Canada s position on the Kyoto Protocol? 38% 50% 13% Government still reviewing Government has ratified DK/NR {Base: All Respondents} EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

18 Recall of the financial commitment to climate change outlined in the recent federal budget is fairly low, with just one-in-ten (11%) saying they clearly recall the commitment and an additional one-in-four (24%) saying they vaguely recall the commitment. While these figures may appear particularly low compared to over familiarity levels with Kyoto, they are in fact fairly consistent with expected recall of any specific Budget initiative. Recall of Budget Commitment Q: As part of this year's budget, the Government of Canada committed 2 billion to fight climate change in Canada. Do you recall seeing, hearing or reading anything about this commitment? 11% 64% 24% Yes, clearly Yes, vaguely No {Base: All Respondents} Again we find that some groups are more likely to express recall, including: older Canadians (53% of those over 65 offer no recall versus 78% of those under 25); university educated Canadians (59% offer no recall versus 69% of those with high school educations) 12 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

19 Views on the adequacy of the Federal commitment are quite mixed. While a plurality (33%) feel that the funds are about right, Canadians are much more likely to feel the funds are insufficient than to indicate that too much funding was set aside to address climate change (29 versus 17%, respectively). One-in-five (21%) offer no opinion. Views on Budget Commitment Q: In your view, did the Government of Canada commit too much, too little or the right amount of funds in the last budget in order to address climate change? DK/NR Too little About right Too much {Base: All Respondents} Quebeckers are most satisfied with the budget commitment, with 44% saying it is about right. Albertans (30%), and those in Manitoba (29%) and Saskatchewan (25%) are most likely to feel too much was set aside for dealing with climate change. EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

20 2.3 COMMUNICATIONS Respondents were presented with a number of arguments both in favour of and against ratification and asked for their level of agreement with each statement. As an overall observation, those arguments in favour of ratification tended to garner higher agreement than arguments against (consistent with majority support found for ratification). The highest agreement is found with elements dealing with the next generation and the necessity of urgent action: Nine-in-ten (90%) agree that we have a responsibility to the next generation to address climate change; Eight-in-ten agree with the need for a coordinated international action of climate change (82%) and that the risk of waiting being simply too high (78%), while three-infour (76%) agree that urgent action is required as the climate is already changing in serious ways; Six-in-ten agree that the Government of Canada is better positioned than their provincial government to develop a fair solution to climate change (59%) and that Kyoto is just a modest first step in addressing climate change (59%). Resonance of Arguments (pro) Q: Please tell me the extent to which you agree with each of the following statements. We have a responsibility to the next generation to do all we can to correct climate change Kyoto is essential since all nations need to act together on climate change Canada needs to act now on climate change, risk of waiting is too high 11 9 The earth's climate is already changing in serious ways and urgent action, like Kyoto, is required The Government of Canada was right to proceed with ratifying Kyoto even though some provinces disagreed The Gov t of Canada is better positioned than my provi. gov t to develop a fair solution to climate change Kyoto is very modest and is really just a minimal first step in addressing climate change % 84% 80% 76% -- 59% 56% DK/NR Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) % saying agree {Base: All Respondents} While we have seen minor fluctuations in these views since last fall, the results overall show a great deal of stability in attitudes. 14 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

21 Statements opposing ratification resonate less with Canadians than supportive arguments. Among the arguments that are critical of Kyoto, those which question Kyoto and the federal plan, as opposed to climate change itself, tend to be most appealing: Half (50%) agree unique Canadian solutions as opposed to international ones such as Kyoto are needed; Just under four-in-ten (37%, down 8 percentage points since last fall) agree that the Government of Canada has no plan to meet Kyoto s targets; Just three-in-ten agree that meeting Kyoto s targets will cost my province (31%) or me (30%) too much, with much higher rates of disagreement for each of these statements (46 and 51%, respectively); One-in-four (25%) agree that the effort of ratification in uncalled for in the absence of U.S. ratification, while respondents are more than twice as likely to disagree (66%). A similar number (24%) agree that speedy action is unwarranted as much of the talk about climate change is exaggerated, with six in ten (62%) disagreeing. Resonance of Arguments (con) Q: Please tell me the extent to which you agree with each of the following statements. 2 9 We need to find unique Canadian solutions to climate change, not international ones like Kyoto The Gov t of Canada doesn't have any real plan on how to meet the targets of Kyoto % 45% 6 Meeting the Kyoto targets will simply cost MY PROVINCE too much* % Meeting the Kyoto targets will simply cost ME too much* % Since the U.S. won't be ratifying, it doesn't make much sense for Canada to go through the effort % Much of the talk about climate change is exaggerated and we shouldn't act too quickly % DK/NR Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) % saying agree {Base: All Respondents, * = half sample} EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

22 The survey also sought to track Canadians rated level of trust in each of a number of groups vis-à-vis the information they provide about Kyoto. Scientists (both Canadian and international) garner the highest trust ratings, with just over half (52%) of respondents saying they are very likely to believe Canadian scientists and just under half (45%) saying the same for international scientists. One in three (32%) say they would be very likely to believe the information provided by environmental groups. The Government of Canada is seen as very likely to be believable by one in five (22%), a slight advantage over the provincial governments (17%). The media (15%) and business groups (8%) are accorded the least trust of all sources tested. Credibility of Sources Q: How likely are you to believe each of the following in terms of the information they provide about Kyoto? 2002 Canadian scientists* % International scientists* % Env tal groups % Gov t of Canada % Your prov.gov t The media % 13% Business groups % % saying DK/NR Unlikely (1-2) Somewhat likely (3-5) Likely (6-7) likely {Base: All Respondents, * = half sample} 16 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

23 2.4 IMPACTS OF KYOTO Respondents were asked to gauge the ultimate impacts that Kyoto would have in a number of areas. A clear division is evident, with the impact on health and the environment (below) much more likely to be seen as positive relative to potential economic impacts. Strong majorities see positive impacts for the health of our environment (78%), the quality of air in Canadian cities (77%), and the overall health of our population (75%), with essentially just one-intwenty (6%) who say the impact in these areas will be negative. There is a very slight shift from last fall in the proportion of Canadians who foresee positive impacts in these areas. Impact on Canadian Environment Q: What impa ct do you think Kyoto will have on March 2003 Oct-Dec 2002 March 2003 Oct-Dec The health of Canada s environment The quality of air in Canada s cities March 2003 Oct-Dec The health of Canada s population DK/NR Negative (1-3) No real impact (4) Positive (5-7) {Base: All Respondents} EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

24 Views are more evenly distributed between positive and negative impacts when respondents are asked to consider the effects of Kyoto on the international competitiveness of Canadian industry (36% and 25%, respectively) and jobs in my province (33% and 23%, respectively), although there is a definite lean toward believing impacts in these areas will be positive. This lean is reversed when considering the price Canadians pay for energy, as respondents are more believe Kyoto s impact in this area will be negative (40% versus 35% reporting a positive impact). Impact on Canadian Economy Q: What impa ct do you think Kyoto will have on March 2003 Oct-Dec 2002 March The international competitiveness of Canada industry The price Canadians pay for energy they use Oct-Dec Jobs in your province March Oct-Dec DK/NR Negative (1-3) No real impact (4) Positive (5-7) {Base: All Respondents} Residents of Alberta (62%) are most likely to see Kyoto as being harmful to jobs in their province. Those in Saskatchewan and B.C seem to have become more positive in their views, as they are now much less likely to see negative impacts in this area compared to last fall.. 18 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

25 2.5 PERSONAL ACTIONS In order to gauge Canadians willingness to become personally engaged in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, respondents were asked how likely they would be to make a number of lifestyle changes towards this end. Close to eight-in-ten (78%) say they would be very likely to lower their thermostat at night or when not at home and three-in-four (75%) say it is very likely that they would switch to high efficiency light bulbs. Six-in-ten (62%) feel it very likely they would upgrade windows or insulation (asked only of homeowners). Lifestyle Changes (i) Q: How likely are you to make each of the following lifestyle changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [half sample asked if the Government of Canada offered you an incentive in the form of a tax credit to do so ]? With incentive No incentive With incentive No incentive With incentive No incentive Lower your thermostat at night, or when you are not at home Switch your light bulbs for more energy efficient bulbs Improve your home's energy efficiency by upgrading windows or insulation % 68% 62% 61% DK/NR Not likely (1-2) Moderately likely (3-5) Likely (6-7) Those who said likely {Base: Half Sample each} EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

26 Just over half (56%) of current car owners feel it is very likely they would purchase a more fuel-efficient vehicle and a similar number (54%) of homeowners say it is very likely they would switch to Energy Star appliances. Forty-six per cent say it is very likely they would make greater efforts to use their vehicles less and one-in-four (26%) say it is very likely they would pay higher energy bills for cleaner sources. Lifestyle Changes (ii) Q: How likely are to make ea ch of the following lifestyle changes [half sample asked if the Government of Canada offered you an incentive in the form of a tax 2002 credit to do so ]? Purchase a more fuel-efficient vehicle With incentive % No incentive % Replace older appliances like refrigerators for more energy efficient models With incentive No incentive With incentive No incentive Reduce vehicle emissions by using public transit, car-pooling, walking or cycling With incentive No incentive Pay more on an electrical bill for cleaner sources of power % 34% 29% 28% Those who DK/NR Not likely (1-2) Moderately likely (3-5) Likely (6-7) said likely {Base: Half Sample each} As presented in the previous exhibits, we find that the introduction of a government incentive is extremely modest. We feel that the current evidence likely under-estimates the actual impact of incentives. Qualitative research conducted last fall (in which participants had the opportunity to spend greater time weighing the scenarios) suggested that these actions are significantly more elastic to government incentives that the survey results indicate. 20 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

27 The contribution of some of these actions to overall reductions in greenhouse gases (or the room to move on personal greenhouse gas emissions) is further complicated by the extent to which Canadians may have already taken action. Six-in-ten (61%) report that they have already lowered their thermostats, and four-in-ten say they have switched to energy efficient light bulbs (39%) or reduced their vehicle use (38%). Similar numbers report having upgraded their homes insulation or windows (36%), or purchased more energy efficient appliances (34%). Three-in-ten (28%) report having purchased a more fuel efficient vehicle, and just over one-in-ten (13%) report a switch to cleaner energy sources. Lifestyle Changes in Last Year Q: Thinking about these lifestyle changes, have you personally made any of them in the LAST YEAR OR SO? Lowered thermostat Efficient light bulbs Commuting behaviour Upgraded insulation Efficient appliances Fuel-efficient vehicle Cleaner power DK/NR 13% 10% 39% 38% 36% 34% 28% 61% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% {Base: All Respondents} EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES,

28 Roughly one-in-five (22%) Canadians believe that they still have a great deal of manoeuvring room in terms of reducing personal greenhouse gas emissions, with an additional six in-ten (62%) feeling they have some room. Fifteen per cent feel there is little left that they can do to make a meaningful contribution. Ability to Make Changes Q: Thinking about personal lifestyle changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which of the following would you say BEST describes your situation? I could make some reductions to the amount of energy I use, but not too many 62% There is little or nothing that I could do to reduce the amount of energy I use 15% 22% I could probably make significant reductions to the amount of energy I use {Base: All Respondents} The belief that there is little room left to contribute is particularly strong among older Canadians (30%) and those with household incomes under $40,000 (18%). 22 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003

29 APPENDIX A QUESTIONNAIRE

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32 APPENDIX B DATA TABLES 2 EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, 2003