Public Opinion Research The Changing Politics of Energy

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Research The Changing Politics of Energy OEA SPEAKER SERIES Toronto October 30, Copyright Innovative Research Group Inc.

2 Doug Ford s Evolving Coalition Agenda The Electricity Mood in Ontario and Canada Canadians Electricity Agenda Reactions to the Carbon Tax Plan Reactions to the Fair Hydro Plan

3 Methodology 3 Method: Representative online panel survey Sample Size: Unweighted n=1,628, Weighted n=1,200 Sample Frame General Population [18yrs+, Canadian citizens] Field Dates: October 26 th -28 th, 2018 Weighting Sample weighted by age, region, and gender to reflect the actual demographic composition of the adult population in Canada [Statscan Census 2016].

4 How is the Ford PC coalition doing?

5 Jan-13 Apr-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-15 Feb'16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun -17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep '18 Oct '18 Combined Vote Tracking: PCs (31%) in the low end of their range, Liberals rebound as main alternative If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [VOTE + LEAN] [asked of all respondents in Ontario] 5 50% 4 40% 3 30% 2 1 0% 31% 28% 22% 1% Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Other Undecided DK Would not vote/ None

6 Jan-13 Apr-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-15 Feb'16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun -17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep '18 Oct '18 Decided Vote Tracking: PCs (3) lead Liberals (32%) among decided voters by a narrow margin If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED VOTE] [only decided voters] 6 50% 4 40% 3 30% 2 1 0% 3 32% 2 1% Liberal Progressive Conservative NDP Green Other

7 Economic Alienation Segmentation: nearly 4-in-10 (3) are either ambivalent or alienated Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? [n=600] Here in Ontario, you can be anything if you are willing to work for it. No matter how hard I work, every year it seems more difficult to get by 22% 2 Strongly agree Neither agree nor disagree Strongly disagree 40% 30% 22% 1 14% Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Don't know 8% 1 Don t believe in Canadian Dream Alienated 22% Ambivalent 1 Canadian Dream Achievers Canadian Dream Hopefuls 14% Canadian Canadian Dream Dream Heavy Moderate Strugglers Strugglers 11% Believe in Canadian Dream, find it very difficult to get by Believe in Canadian Dream, not struggling to get by 7 Believe in Canadian Dream, no opinion on struggling to get by Believe in Canadian Dream, moderately struggling to get by

8 Tracking Decided Vote by Alienation Segmentation: Liberals gaining with ambivalent and alienated groups; PCs holding onto Achievers Canadian Dream Achievers Canadian Dream Hopefuls % 40% 31% 38% 34% 3 34% 34% 31% 30% 21% 2% 4% Jan '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 Canadian Dream Moderate Strugglers % 41% 30% 34% % 24% 2 24% 4% Jan '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 Ambivalent 42% % 34% 28% 2 22% 22% 14% 1 11% 12% 8% Jan '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 44% 41% % 3 31% 32% 31% 1 24% 14% 8% 4% 1 Jan '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 Canadian Dream Heavy Strugglers 6 40% % % 2 24% 12% % Jan '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 Alienated % % 30% 3 30% % Jan '18 Apr '18 May '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 Decided vote: Liberal PC NDP Green

9 Value Clusters: NDP limited by 32% saying redistribute, PCs limited by 38% saying spend according to means 9 These clusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense. Government should base spending decisions on 38% 5 Main role of government is to 5 32% Deferential Left Liberals 1 Business Liberals Ability to afford Public need Don t know Create equal opportunity Redistribute wealth Don t know Core Left 21% Deferential Conservatives 11% The profit system 4 42% When it comes to government decision making 40% 4 Populist Thrifty Moderates 1 Populist Conservatives Left Right Encourages hard work & success Brings out the worst in human nature Don t know Trust experts Rely on common sense Don t know

10 4-year gap 4-year gap 4-year gap 4-year gap 4-year gap 4-year gap Tracking Decided Vote by Cluster: Liberals regaining support in some key groups; PCs remain competitive with Business Liberals Left Liberals % % % 32% % 8% Mar '14 June '14 (Post-election) Apr '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 Thrifty Moderates Business Liberals 54% 41% 38% 3 38% 40% % 21% % Mar '14 June '14 (Post-election) Apr '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 Deferential Conservatives % 2 Core Left 41% 50% 44% 3 30% 3 14% 11% 8% Mar ' % 21% June '14 (Postelection) 40% 40% 2 22% 34% 14% Mar '14 June '14 (Post-election) Apr '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 6 Apr '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct ' % 44% 4 4% 68% % 1 14% 6 6 8% 81% 1 Mar '14 June '14 (Post-election) Apr '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct '18 Populist Conservatives 22% 1 8% 1% 4% 1% Mar '14 June '14 (Post-election) Apr '18 Jun '18 (Post-election) Oct ' % 38% 2 78% Decided vote: Liberal PC NDP Green

11 Electricity Agenda October 2018 CTM

12 Ontarians feel less protected on price than any other province. Only 1-in-5 (22%) feel consumers here are well protected on price. Thinking about the electricity companies in your province, would you agree or disagree with the following statements? [asked of all respondents] Consumers are well protected with respect to the reliability and quality of electricity service in my province. Canada BC Alberta Prairies Ontario uebec Atlantic % 28% % 44% % 14% % 11% 8% 1% 8% 2% Net Agree % Consumers are well protected with respect to the price of electricity service in my province. Canada BC Alberta Prairies Ontario uebec Atlantic 8% 2 4% 21% % % % % 22% 28% 1 8% 1 24% 12% % -28% + - Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

13 Importance: Price leads among electricity priorities with reliability a strong second When it comes to electricity, which of these considerations is the most important to you? Which consideration is the next most important? [asked of all respondents] Among Ontarians Rest of Canada Top 2 Selections Ontario Rest of Canada 13 Keeping prices as low as possible 32% 12% 30% 1 44% 4 Providing day to day reliability of the electricity system 2 40% 44% Protecting public and worker safety 11% 11% 11% 21% 22% Increasing the amount of renewable generation such as wind and solar 11% 8% 21% Promoting energy conservation 4% 12% 1 Improving the ability of the electricity system to withstand extreme weather events 12% 1 Keeping greenhouse gas emission low 14% 12% Ensuring we generate all the electricity we need right here in this province Protecting the electricity grid from cyber attacks 2% 4% 8% 1% 4% 1 1 NOTE: Don t know not shown. Most Important Next most important

14 14 Priority for Ontario Government: Ranking can mislead. While price and reliability are most important, other topics are not unimportant There are a number of issues people would like the government to focus on when it comes to electricity. How important are following priorities to you? [asked of all respondents, only results of Ontario are shown] Among Ontarians Providing day to day reliability of the electricity system Protecting the electricity grid from cyber attacks 6 70% 2 24% 0% 2% 1% 4% 2% Protecting public and worker safety 60% 2 1% Keeping prices as low as possible 60% 2 1% 2% Improving the ability of the electricity system to withstand extreme weather events 5 3 0% Promoting energy conservation 5 32% 8% 1% Keeping greenhouse gas emission low 5 28% 4% Increasing the amount of renewable generation such as wind and solar Ensuring we generate all the electricity we need right here in this province 50% 4 Very important Somewhat important Not very important Not at all important Don t know 28% 32% 11% 4% 4%

15 Carbon Tax October 2018 CTM, National

16 Belief in CC: 7-in-10 (70%) believe climate change is definitely occurring, much higher than in March 2018 Thinking about your own personal view, do you believe that? [asked of all respondents] Net Occurring 16 Oct '18 70% 21% 4% 2% +8 Mar '18 62% 2 4% +80% Nov ' % 4% 4% 4% +80% Apr ' % Dec '15 60% 2 2% +7 Apr '10 51% 3 2% +7 Feb ' % Apr '09 54% 2 +71% Apr ' % +80% Climate change is definitely occurring Climate change is probably not occurring Don t know/have not heard Climate change is probably occurring Climate change is definitely not occurring NOTE: Prior to 2010, the term global warming was used in place of climate change Prior to Nov 16, only those who have heard of climate change are asked of this question; those who have not heard are combined with the Don t know responses here.

17 6-in-10 (61%) say they have personally experienced unusual weather that they feel is clear proof of climate change, higher than in 2010 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I have personally experienced unusual weather that I feel is clear proof of climate change. [asked of all respondents] 17 Oct '18 30% 31% Apr ' % 12% 1 4% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

18 Support for Carbon Tax: nearly half (4) support minimum price, at highest levels since Do you support or oppose the federal government implementing the following policy? Establish a national minimum price for carbon and, in provinces that fail to meet that national minimum price, the federal government will introduce a carbon tax in that province where the money raised by that tax is returned to that provincial government. [asked of all respondents] % 24% 2 21% 21% 2 22% 2 22% 1 21% 14% 14% 11% 8% 24% 2 22% 8% 11% 11% 1 Oct '16 Nov '16 Mar '18 Jul '18 Sep '18 Oct '18 Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don t know

19 Support/Oppose by Cluster/Gap: Deferential Conservatives divided on minimum price for carbon Do you support or oppose the federal government implementing the following policy? Establish a national minimum price for carbon and, in provinces that fail to meet that national minimum price, the federal government will introduce a carbon tax in that province where the money raised by that tax is returned to that provincial government. BY Value Cluster [asked of all respondents] 19 Def Con. Pop Con. Business Liberals Left Liberals Thrifty Mod. Core Left SUPPORT % 7 OPPOSE 40% 68% 2 21% 2 NET SUPPORT -4% -50% 34% 22% 21% 64%

20 Carbon Tax Engagement: 4 are following the issue closely, highest engagement among Liberals and Conservatives In the past week, the federal government announced the details of the national minimum price for carbon. The federal government has determined that Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and New Brunswick have failed to meet the national minimum price. In those provinces, the federal government will bring in a tax on carbon-based fuels. The federal government will use 90 percent of those revenues to provide a rebate to consumer in those provinces. The remaining will be used to provide support for schools, hospitals, small and medium-sized businesses, colleges and universities, municipalities, notfor-profit organizations and Indigenous communities. How closely have you been following the news about this announcement? [asked of all respondents] 4 say closely 4 say not closely 14% 32% 30% Sample Breakdown Those who say closely Region BC Alberta Prairies Ontario uebec Atlantic Federal Party ID Liberal Conservative NDP Green/Other Unaligned Value Clusters Deferential Conservatives Populist Conservatives Business Liberals Left Liberals Thrifty Moderates Core Left % 51% 3 41% % 4 32% 51% 54% % Very closely Somewhat closely Not very closely Not at all Don't know

21 Carbon Tax Support: 4-in-10 (40%) support the federal govt s carbon tax; 6-in-10 (61%) Liberals and 5 of NDP support it Now you know the details of the federal government s carbon price policy, do you support or oppose that policy? [asked of all respondents] 40% say support Strongly support 21% Somewhat support Neither support nor oppose 2 say oppose 8% Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose 1 Don't know Sample Breakdown Those who say support Region BC Alberta Prairies Ontario uebec Atlantic Federal Party ID Liberal Conservative NDP Green/Other Unaligned Value Clusters Deferential Conservatives Populist Conservatives Business Liberals Left Liberals Thrifty Moderates Core Left % 40% 61% 5 38% 32% % 34% 32% 6 21

22 The Fair Hydro Plan October 2018 CTM

23 23 Fair Hydro Plan Initiatives: majority (51%) support removing the cost of relief programs and funding them through existing taxes Now we would like to talk about The Fair Hydro Plan which came into effect on June 1, 2017 laid out a number of initiatives to address electricity prices. Please indicate if you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose each of the following initiatives. [asked only of Ontario respondents] Among Ontarians Net Support Remove the cost of certain electricity-related relief programs, such as low income assistance and rural relief, from electricity bills, and instead fund those programs through existing taxes % Spreading out the financing costs of electricity generation contracts over a longer period which will incur additional interest payments 8% 2 30% 21% - Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don t know

24 Trade-off between now and then: nearly 2-in-3 (6) feel we should stop pushing costs into the future, even if that means paying more now Spreading out the financing costs of electricity generation contracts over a longer period means Ontarians pay lower prices today but will pay higher prices in the future to pay back the money that is borrowed and the interest costs. Which of the following statements is closest to your point of view? [asked only of Ontario respondents] Among Ontarians 24 Smith says: Jones says: We should continue to keep costs down today, even if it means paying more in the future. We should stop pushing costs into the future, even if that means paying more today. Agree with Smith Don t Know 6 6 Agree with Jones

25 Trade-off between now and then: even heavy strugglers prefer to pay now rather than delaying electricity costs, even if it means paying more later Spreading out the financing costs of electricity generation contracts over a longer period means Ontarians pay lower prices today but will pay higher prices in the future to pay back the money that is borrowed and the interest costs. Which of the following statements is closest to your point of view? BY Value Clusters and Economic Gap [asked only of Ontario respondents] 25 By Value Clusters By Economic Gap Overall 6 Overall 6 Deferential Conservatives 7 1 Canadian Dream Achievers 1 7 8% Populist Conservatives 6 1 Canadian Dream Hopefuls 62% 21% Business Liberals 5 24% Canadian Dream Moderate Strugglers 1 60% 24% Left Liberals Canadian Dream Heavy Strugglers 3 52% 12% Thrifty Moderates 21% 52% 2 Ambivalent % Core Left Alienated 1 62% 21% Keep costs down today, even if it means paying more in the future Stop pushing costs into future, even if it means paying more today Don t know Keep costs down today, even if it means paying more in the future Stop pushing costs into future, even if it means paying more today Don t know

26 Key Takeaways While most of the PC base remains firm, Ford may be losing some of his more deferential voters The Liberals have rebounded now voters vented their anger through the election. While price is the most important electricity priority to Ontarians today, it is far from the only thing that matters. While it is early in the debate, the federal carbon policy enjoys initial support and divides Deferential Conservatives On Fair Hydro Plan, Ontarians support shifting social costs to tax base but do not support shifting costs to the future

27 Building Understanding. Personalized research to connect you and your audiences. Greg Lyle President Innovative Research Group Inc. 56 The Esplanade, Suite 310 Toronto ON M5E 1A7 Copyright 2018 Innovative Research Group Inc.