Canadian Views on NAFTA Negotiations: Perceptions, Approval, Preferences, & Expectations. Conducted December 2017 Released January 2018

Transcription

1 Canadian Views on NAFTA Negotiations: Perceptions, Approval, Preferences, & Expectations Conducted December 2017 Released January 2018

2 Methodology Methodology/Sample: Online survey of randomly-selected sample of 1,207 adult (18+) Canadians Field Window: December 11-18, 2017 Reliability: As a guideline, a probability sample of this size carries a margin of error of ± 2., 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is larger for sub-segments. Although demographic and regional quotas were employed to ensure reliable and comparable sub-segment analysis, the data was weighted by the most current gender, age, & region Census data, to ensure the sample reflects actual population of adult Canadians. Region Number of interviews Margin of error Atlantic Canada 103 ± 9.7% Quebec 309 ± 5.6% Ontario 309 ± 5.6% Manitoba 97 ± 10.0% Saskatchewan 100 ± 9. Alberta 146 ± 8.1% British Columbia 143 ± 8.2% Canada 1,207 ± 2.5% 2

3 Key Findings Most Canadians feel that NAFTA has been good for Canada and their province, with few feeling it has been bad but about a quarter are unsure Most Canadians (45%) approve of the job the Trudeau Government is doing in NAFTA negotiations disapprove and 2 are unsure Approval is higher in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada than in the Western provinces A majority (54%) want a new NAFTA deal only if there are moderate or minor concessions to the U.S., as few are supportive of a deal that makes major concessions to the U.S. Deal preferences are consistent across Canada s regions A majority (52%) expects the negotiations to produce a revised NAFTA, with 25% expecting a fair deal and expecting a deal that overly favours U.S. About one-in-ten () expect NAFTA to emerge unchanged, expect it to be cancelled, and about a quarter (26%) unsure Expectations are similar across the regions 3

4 Most Canadians (46%) feel that NAFTA has been good for Canada, with few feeling it has been bad () but a quarter (23%) are unsure Total Has NAFTA Been Good/Bad for Canada? 46% 13% 4% 23% BC 45% 13% 6% AB 49% 13% 1% SK 34% 19% 2% MN 44% 2% 2 ON 52% 3% 20% QUE 39% 7% 19% ATL 39% 3% 17% Good Both Good and Bad Neither Bad Don't know/unsure Based on what you know about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Do you feel that the current agreement has been good or bad for? 4

5 Most Canadians (42%) also feel that NAFTA has been good for their province, with few feeling negative () quarter (26%) unsure Total Has NAFTA Been Good/Bad for Your Province? 42% 4% 26% BC 42% 5% 26% AB 41% 3% 2 SK 30% 17% 19% 1% 33% MN 40% 6% 2% 34% ON 47% 13% 3% QUE 39% 7% ATL 35% 4% 32% Good Both Good and Bad Neither Bad Don't know/unsure Based on what you know about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Do you feel that the current agreement has been good or bad for? 5

6 Most Canadians (45%) approve of the job the Trudeau Government is doing in NAFTA negotiations disapprove and 2 are unsure Total BC AB 4% SK MN ON QUE ATL Approval Ratings: Trudeau Government s Job Performance in NAFTA Negotiations 29% 34% 30% 26% 37% 36% 39% 22% 7% 9% 13% 2 29% 30% 33% 37% 29% Total Approval: 45% 42% 33% 37% 40% 47% 50% 50% Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Don't know/unsure Based on what you know. overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the federal Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is doing in these negotiations? 6

7 A Majority (54%) want a new NAFTA deal only if there are moderate or minor concessions to the U.S. little support for major concessions We should try to make a deal, even if we need to make major concessions to the U.S. - because free trade with the U.S. and Mexico is very important to our economy, and we would suffer without having it in some form. We should make a deal only if we need to make moderate or minor concessions to the U.S. - because having a version of NAFTA that overly favours the U.S. is worse for our economy than not having free trade at all. 54% Neither view is close to my own 17% Don't know/unsure Thinking about Canada's approach and goals for these negotiations... which of the following views is closest to your own? 7

8 Consistent preference across the provinces for a deal based on minor/moderate concessions rather than major concessions Total BC AB SK MN ON QUE ATL We should try to make a deal, even if we need to make major concessions to the U.S. 9% 9% We should make a deal only if we need to make moderate or minor concessions to the U.S. 54% 51% 49% 57% 50% 54% 57% 61% Neither view is close to my own 17% 20% 19% 19% 13% Don't know / Unsure 22% 23% Thinking about Canada's approach and goals for these negotiations... which of the following views is closest to your own? 8

9 Majority (52%) expects a revised NAFTA, with 25% expecting a fair deal and expecting a deal that overly favours U.S. 26% unsure NAFTA will continue as it is, with no changes The current NAFTA will be replaced with a new version of NAFTA that is more or less fair to all 3 countries The current NAFTA will be replaced with a new version of of NAFTA that overly favours the U.S. NAFTA will be cancelled, with little-to-no immediate plans for a new agreement(s) to replace it. 25% Don't know/unsure 26% Overall, what do you most expect will be the end result of these negotiations? 9

10 Similar NAFTA expectations across the provinces Total BC AB SK MN ON QUE ATL NAFTA will continue as it is, with no changes 7% 7% 5% 6% The current NAFTA will be replaced with a new version of NAFTA that is more or less fair to all 3 countries 25% 20% 2 29% 22% The current NAFTA will be replaced with a new version of of NAFTA that overly favours the U.S. 25% 33% 32% 36% 25% 36% NAFTA will be cancelled, with little-to-no immediate plans for a new agreement(s) to replace it. Don't know/unsure 26% 31% 26% 23% 23% 30% 23% Overall, what do you most expect will be the end result of these negotiations? 10

11 Craig Worden Executive Vice President Ext