Ideas powered by world-class data

Transcription

1 Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending November 8, 2013 (released November 13, 2013) Ideas powered by world-class data

2 Analysis (Released 11/13/2013) The Nanos weekly Party Power Index suggests that the NDP brand is gaining strength although it still trails both the Liberals and the Conservatives. Party Power Index scores stand at 56 for the Liberals, 51 for the Conservatives, 48 for the New Democrats and 32 for the Green Party. The strength of the Conservative brand has declined over the past week. Of note, the percentage of Canadians who think that Stephen Harper has the qualities of a good leader has dropped seven points in the past four weeks from a high of 57 percent of Canadians to percent in the most recent wave of tracking. On this measure, 54 percent of Canadians thought Trudeau had the qualities of a good leader while 45 percent of Canadians thought Mulcair had the qualities of a good leader. 2

3 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities Canada Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 3

4 Party Power Index Tracking by Region Nanos Weekly Tracking Expert Counsel to CEOs and thought leaders

5 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for BC is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples British Columbia Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=152) Liberal Conservative NDP Green 5

6 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the Prairies is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples Prairies Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=200) Liberal Conservative NDP Green 6

7 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Ontario is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples Ontario Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=0) Liberal Conservative NDP Green 7

8 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Quebec is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples Quebec Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=248) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 8

9 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the Atlantic is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples Atlantic Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=100) Liberal Conservative NDP Green 9

10 Party Power Index Tracking by Age Nanos Weekly Tracking

11 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 18 to 29 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples to 29 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=205) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 11

12 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the to 39 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples to 39 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=169) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 12

13 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 40 to 49 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for PM, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples to 49 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=208) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 13

14 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the to 59 age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. to 59 Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=178) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 14

15 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 60 plus age group is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for age subsamples. 60 plus Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=239) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 15

16 Party Power Index Tracking by Gender Nanos Weekly Tracking

17 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for males is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for gender subsamples. Male Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=470) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 17

18 The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for females is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of accuracy for gender subsamples. 60 Female Weekly Index Tracking Scores (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=5) Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc 18

19 Federal Party Accessible Voters Nanos Weekly Tracking A proven track record of accuracy

20 Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? 60% Weekly Tracking First Ranked Choice (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=826) Election Election Election Election % 40% 37% 36% 38% 40% 37% % 20% 10% 0% % 16% 12% 4% % 18% 10% 6% 26% 18% 10% 7% 31% 19% 6% 4% 29% 23% 5% 5% Liberal CP NDP Bloc Green 20

21 Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? 60% % 44% Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) 40% % 23% 20% 11% 10% 0% 10% 0 4% 3% 6% 4% 4% Environment Education Jobs/economy Healthcare Debt/deficit Accountability/Scandal 21

22 National Political Tracking Numbers Nanos Weekly Tracking A proven track record of accuracy

23 Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party 100% 90% 80% National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) 6% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 9% 10% 52% % 51% 51% % 52% % 49% 51% 49% % % 51% 49% 48% 70% 60% % 40% 42% 40% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 40% 38% 40% 41% 41% 41% 42% 42% % 20% 10% 0% Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure 23

24 Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] NDP 100% 90% 80% National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11% 9% 10% 11% 12% % 47% 48% 48% 48% 47% 46% 44% 45% 45% 46% 48% 48% 49% 48% 70% 60% % 58% 40% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 43% 44% 43% 42% 41% 40% % 20% 10% 0% Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure 24

25 Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party 100% 90% 80% National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) 12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 26% 39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 38% 38% 36% 37% 39% 39% 40% 39% 70% 60% % 62% 51% 51% % % % 49% 51% 52% 52% 51% % % % % 40% % 20% 10% 0% Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure 25

26 Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Québécois 100% 90% 80% Quebec only Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=248) 13% 52% 9% 8% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 6% 6% 6% 8% 9% 11% 9% 49% % 49% 51% 53% 53% 55% 59% 64% 64% 64% 60% 58% 58% 70% 60% % 40% 42% 42% 44% 40% 38% 37% 37% % 35% 35% % % 28% % 32% 32% 20% 10% 0% Would consider voting BQ Would not consider voting BQ Unsure 26

27 Question: For each of the following federal political parties, please tell me if you would consider or not consider voting for it. [RANDOMIZE] Green Party 100% 90% 80% National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) 16% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 46% 63% 62% 62% 61% 62% 63% 63% 62% 62% 63% 64% 66% 66% 63% 70% 60% % 40% % 38% 20% 28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 25% 24% 26% 26% 26% 26% 24% 24% 27% 10% 0% Would consider voting Green Would not consider voting Green Unsure 27

28 Tracking on the Federal Political Leaders Nanos Weekly Tracking Winning solutions for decision-makers

29 Question: Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY LEADERS] 35% % 25% National Weekly Tracking First Ranked Choice (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) % 31% 29% 29% 20% 17% 17% 15% 10% 6% 5% 1% 0% 4% 3% Justin Trudeau (Liberal) Stephen Harper (Conservative) Thomas Mulcair (NDP) Daniel Paillé (BQ) Elizabeth May (Green) 29

30 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Stephen Harper National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) 100% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 90% 38% 40% 41% 42% 42% 40% 39% 36% 36% 35% 34% 36% 39% 41% 80% 70% 60% % 55% 53% 52% 51% % 52% 52% 54% 55% 57% 57% 56% 54% % 40% % 20% 10% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure

31 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Thomas Mulcair National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) 100% 25% 26% 26% 26% 27% 29% 29% % 29% 28% 26% 26% 26% 25% 90% 80% % % 28% 28% 28% 27% 28% 27% 28% 29% 29% 31% 31% % 70% 60% % 40% 45% 44% 46% 45% 44% 44% 43% 44% 43% 44% 44% 43% 43% 45% % 20% 10% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 31

32 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Justin Trudeau National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) 100% 16% 16% 16% 15% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 17% 17% 15% 14% 13% 90% 80% 29% 28% 29% 31% 29% 29% 27% 25% 24% 26% 27% 28% 32% 32% 70% 60% % 55% 55% 55% 54% 54% 54% 57% 57% 58% 57% 57% 57% 54% 54% 40% % 20% 10% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 32

33 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Daniel Paillé National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=248) 100% 37% 38% 35% 34% 29% 34% 33% 36% 38% 33% 34% % 29% 90% 80% 27% 70% 60% % 40% 39% 43% 43% 46% 44% 46% 46% 48% % 47% % % 52% 40% % 20% 10% 23% 24% 22% 23% 25% 22% 21% 18% 15% 18% 19% 20% 21% 21% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 33

34 Question: For each of the following federal political party leaders, do you think they have or do not have the qualities to be a good political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Elizabeth May National Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending November 8, 2013, n=1,000) 100% 26% 26% 27% 28% 29% % 29% % 29% 29% 28% 27% 28% 26% 90% 80% 70% 43% 41% 41% 41% 41% 42% 41% 40% 40% 39% 40% 43% 44% 45% 60% % 40% % 20% 31% 32% 32% 31% % 28% 29% % 31% 31% 32% % 28% 29% 10% 0% Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure 34

35 Methodology 35

36 Survey Methodology The Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 2 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, where each week the oldest group of 2 interviews is dropped and a new group of 2 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this time. The current report is based on a four week rolling average of Canadian opinion ending November 8, A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of

37 About Nanos Nanos is one of North America s most trusted research and strategy organizations. Our team of professionals is regularly called upon by senior executives to deliver superior intelligence and market advantage whether it be helping to chart a path forward, managing a reputation or brand risk or understanding the trends that drive success. Services range from traditional telephone surveys, through to elite in-depth interviews, online research and focus groups. Nanos clients range from Fortune 0 companies through to leading advocacy groups interested in understanding and shaping the public landscape. Whether it is understanding your brand or reputation, customer needs and satisfaction, engaging employees or testing new ads or products, Nanos provides insight you can trust. View our brochure Nik Nanos FMRIA Chairman, Nanos Research Group Ottawa (613) ext. 237 Washington DC (202)