Alberta Provincial Politics

Transcription

1 Alberta Provincial Politics Alberta PCs Hold a Five Point Lead over the Wildrose Alliance PCs 34%, WRA 29%, ALP 18%, NDP 14% For Release: March 13, 2012 Conducted for the QMI Agency and Sun News Network Field Dates: March 5 to 7, 2012 All Respondents: n=947 Albertans, 18 years of age and older Margin of Error: + 3.2%, 19 times of 20 Decided Voters: n=840, 18 years of age and older Margin of Error: + 3.4%, 19 times of 20

2 Alberta PCs lead by 5: PC 34%, WRA 29%, ALP 18%, NDP 14% Albertans feel good about the current state of the province s economy; gap exists between PCs and WRA. Please refer to the survey as: QMI/Sun News - Abacus Data Poll 947 Albertans, 18 years of age and older, March 5-7, 2012 Ottawa A new survey from Abacus Data conducted for QMI/Sun News finds that if an Alberta provincial election were held at the time of the survey, the incumbent Party would win the popular vote by about five percentage points. The survey found that 34% of decided voters would vote for the Tories led by Alison Redford followed closely by the Wildrose Alliance led by Danielle Smith with 29%. The Official Opposition Liberals are third with 18% while the NDP is at 14%. Five percent of decided voters said they would vote for another party. al Breakdown The Tories are strongest in the two major urban centres getting 34% of the vote in Calgary and 38% in Edmonton. The Wildrose Alliance is stronger in Calgary (33%) while weakest in Edmonton (20%). The Liberal Party and NDP are strongest in Edmonton. Women lean PC; Men lean Wildrose The survey found a gender gap exists between the two leading parties. Female voters were more likely to say they would vote PC (39% PC vs. 23% WRA) while male voters were more likely to prefer the Wildrose Alliance (34% WRA vs. 29% PC). Party Leadership Respondents were also asked to rate their impression of each of the four main party leaders. While no single party leader stood out from the pack, Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith was the only leader with a net positive favourable rating. Premier Alison Redford was viewed favourably by 29% of Albertans while 31% had an unfavourable impression of the PC Leader. Three in ten were indifferent towards her while 9% said they were unsure. Danielle Smith fared slightly better than the Premier with a 31% of Albertans having a favourable impression of her and 23% viewing her unfavourably. Both Raj Sherman and Brian Mason were viewed less favourably with more voters having a neutral opinion of both. Both men face a challenge of getting attention in what appears to be a two-party race led by two dynamic female leaders.

3 Net Favourability (favourable unfavourable) PC Leader Alison Redford -2 WRA Leader Danielle Smith +8 ALP Leader Raj Sherman -5 NDP Leader Brian Mason -5 Direction of the PC Government Alberta Political Survey Overall, a majority of Albertans surveyed (54%) believed that the PC Government in Alberta is headed on the wrong track while 42% believed the PC Government was headed in the right direction. Voters outside of Calgary and Edmonton were more likely to believe the PC Government was headed on the wrong track than those living in Alberta s largest cities. Over eight in ten PC Party supporters believed the PC government was headed in the right direction compared with 11% of WRA supporters, 30% of Liberal supporters, and 24% of NDP supporters. There is a small group of PC voters who are not happy with the direction of the Redford government, said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data. In order for the Wildrose Alliance to win this election, Danielle Smith and her party must reach out to these unsatisfied Tories and convince them she is ready to lead. For Alison Redford, there is an opportunity to reach out to Liberal and NDP supporters who approve of her government s direction and may be afraid of a Wildrose Alliance victory. Economic Evaluations Positive for Redford Government When asked to rate the current state of the Alberta economy, a majority of Albertans believed the economy was either very good (20%) or good (41%). Another 29% rated the economy as okay while 9% believed it was poor or very poor. Impressions about the economy are often strong predictors of an incumbent party s re-election success, said Coletto. The positive news for the governing Tories in these numbers is that a majority of Albertans described the state of the provincial economy as good. PC supporters were more likely to rate the economy as very good while Wildrose Alliance and Liberal Party supporters were more likely to describe the state of the economy as poor. Management of the Oil Sands Respondents were asked which political party they trust most to manage Alberta s oil sands. One in three Albertans said they trust the PCs the most, followed by the Wildrose Alliance (21%), the Alberta Liberal Party (16%) and the NDP (12%). Sixteen percent said they trust none of the parties to manage the valuable natural resource. The incumbent Tories have a 12-point lead over the Wildrose Party on who can best manage the oil sands, said Coletto. This question will likely be a strong predictor of vote preference so the Wildrose Alliance still has some work to convince voters that they are ready to handle the responsibility.

4 Bottom Line The Alberta election is shaping up to be a fight between urban and rural as well as between men and women, said Coletto. The PC s hold on government is tenuous, said Coletto. The Wildrose Alliance is nipping at the PC Party s heels and will be competitive in many consistencies especially in Calgary and in the rural areas of the province. Alberta is unique in Canada in that both of the two leading parties have female leaders, said Coletto. The gender gap in voter preferences will likely play a critical role in deciding the outcome of the election, said Coletto. The Tories are stronger among women while the Wildrose Alliance is stronger among men. The Wildrose Alliance s weakness among women is one of the challenges it must overcome as it attempts to defeat the forty-one year old Tory dynasty. Alison Redford s strengths going into the campaign include her support among women, a strong base of support in Edmonton, and a divide centre-left between the Liberals, NDP, and Alberta Party, said Coletto. Danielle Smith is strongest among men and among voters outside of Calgary or Edmonton. Methodology From March 5 to 7, 2012, Abacus Data conducted a provincial survey of 947 Albertans aged 18 and over using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. The survey was commissioned by QMI Agency and Sun News Network. This is the pre-writ survey of Alberta voters. Throughout the campaign, Abacus Data and Sun News/Sun Media will be surveying Albertans on the provincial election. A dual landline/cell phone RDD samping frame was used in this study. The margin of error for a sample size of 947 is + 3.2%, 19 times out of 20. Note that the margin of error is higher for subgroups and caution should be used when making conclusions of data in subgroups with small sample sizes. For more information about the survey findings, please contact Dr. David Coletto, CEO Abacus Data Inc. at (613) or david@abacusdata.ca

5 If the Alberta election was today, which party would you vote for in your local constituency? Decided voters only, n=840 Current Economic Evaluation 2008 Provincial Vote Wildrose Alliance Liberal NDP Another party Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Weighted Count Count Unweighted Count Alberta 34% 29% 18% 14% 5% Northern Alberta 29% 30% 17% 12% 12% % 20% 22% 15% 5% % 32% 7% 16% 7% % 33% 18% 10% 4% Southern Alberta 19% 36% 23% 19% 3% Female 39% 23% 20% 13% 5% Male 29% 34% 17% 14% 6% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% to 29 39% 14% 18% 19% 9% to 44 32% 26% 19% 19% 5% to 64 32% 41% 16% 7% 4% and over 35% 33% 20% 10% 3% Elementary school or less 62% 19% 4% 12% 3% High school 40% 31% 14% 9% 6% % 34% 17% 13% 6% University degree 33% 23% 22% 17% 5% Refused 45% 55% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 Very good 47% 22% 17% 12% 3% Good 39% 26% 19% 11% 5% Ok 26% 33% 17% 16% 8% Poor 9% 39% 34% 12% 5% Very poor 0% 58% 0% 35% 7% % 37% 6% 4% 3% Wildrose Alliance 15% 73% 6% 6% 0% Liberal 15% 11% 51% 16% 8% NDP 15% 5% 13% 66% 1% Another party 11% 27% 7% 13% 42% Did not vote 38% 23% 20% 18% 1% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0

6 First of all, would you say the PC Government in Alberta is heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track Refused Count Percentage Percentage Percentage Unweighted Count Weighted Count Alberta 42% 54% 4% Northern Alberta 37% 60% 3% % 48% 3% % 53% 4% % 52% 5% Southern Alberta 22% 77% 2% Female 47% 49% 4% Male 38% 59% 3% Refused 0% 0% 0% to 29 46% 49% 5% to 44 42% 54% 4% to 64 38% 57% 4% and over 42% 56% 2% Elementary school or less 55% 40% 5% High school 43% 52% 5% % 55% 4% University degree 42% 55% 2% Refused 28% 42% 30% % 15% 1% Wildrose Alliance 11% 87% 2% Liberal 30% 66% 4% NDP 24% 70% 6% Another party 35% 54% 11% 36 45

7 Do you have a favourable, neutral, or unfavourable impression of PC Leader Alison Redford? Favourable Neutral Unfavourable Unsure Refused Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Alberta 29% 31% 31% 9% 1% Northern Alberta 26% 21% 37% 15% 1% 31% 35% 27% 7% 0% 25% 40% 30% 5% 1% 33% 26% 30% 9% 1% Southern Alberta 17% 29% 41% 12% 0% Female 33% 33% 23% 11% 1% Male 26% 29% 38% 6% 0% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18 to 29 31% 33% 20% 15% 1% 30 to 44 26% 30% 35% 8% 1% 45 to 64 29% 28% 37% 6% 0% 65 and over 33% 34% 27% 5% 0% Elementary school or less 36% 15% 18% 28% 2% High school 24% 35% 29% 12% 1% 26% 27% 36% 10% 1% University degree 35% 33% 28% 5% 0% Refused 0% 28% 42% 30% 0% 57% 28% 5% 10% 0% Wildrose Alliance 7% 28% 62% 3% 0% Liberal 22% 28% 39% 11% 1% NDP 19% 45% 31% 4% 0% Another party 41% 23% 26% 6% 4%

8 Do you have a favourable, neutral, or unfavourable impression of Wildrose Alliance Leader Danielle Smith? Favourable Neutral Unfavourable Unsure Refused Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Alberta 31% 32% 23% 13% 2% Northern Alberta 30% 35% 21% 14% 1% 26% 34% 25% 14% 1% 33% 35% 23% 8% 1% 32% 28% 23% 14% 3% Southern Alberta 38% 32% 21% 9% 0% Female 25% 33% 22% 18% 3% Male 36% 31% 24% 8% 1% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18 to 29 22% 31% 25% 18% 4% 30 to 44 28% 33% 26% 13% 1% 45 to 64 41% 30% 19% 10% 0% 65 and over 32% 35% 22% 8% 1% Elementary school or less 25% 15% 32% 19% 9% High school 35% 32% 15% 16% 2% 34% 32% 20% 13% 1% University degree 25% 33% 30% 10% 2% Refused 19% 12% 23% 46% 0% 16% 36% 28% 20% 1% Wildrose Alliance 77% 18% 3% 1% 0% Liberal 15% 44% 30% 10% 1% NDP 4% 42% 44% 10% 1% Another party 24% 24% 36% 11% 4%

9 Do you have a favourable, neutral, or unfavourable impression of Liberal Leader Raj Sherman? Favourable Neutral Unfavourable Unsure Refused Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Alberta 22% 37% 27% 12% 1% Northern Alberta 19% 44% 26% 10% 1% 24% 39% 25% 11% 0% 24% 32% 36% 8% 1% 21% 35% 27% 14% 3% Southern Alberta 19% 40% 24% 15% 2% Female 23% 36% 25% 14% 2% Male 21% 38% 30% 11% 0% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18 to 29 23% 35% 25% 15% 2% 30 to 44 21% 36% 27% 15% 1% 45 to 64 21% 40% 30% 9% 0% 65 and over 25% 38% 27% 8% 2% Elementary school or less 11% 20% 31% 35% 2% High school 15% 36% 34% 13% 1% 25% 37% 25% 12% 1% University degree 23% 39% 25% 10% 2% Refused 0% 12% 58% 30% 0% 10% 35% 39% 16% 0% Wildrose Alliance 13% 43% 38% 5% 0% Liberal 56% 31% 5% 7% 1% NDP 31% 38% 18% 13% 0% Another party 30% 45% 12% 9% 4%

10 Do you have a favourable, neutral, or unfavourable impression of NDP Leader Brian Mason? Favourable Neutral Unfavourable Unsure Refused Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Alberta 20% 40% 25% 13% 2% Northern Alberta 15% 40% 33% 11% 1% 26% 40% 24% 9% 0% 18% 45% 24% 10% 2% 16% 42% 24% 15% 3% Southern Alberta 19% 31% 27% 22% 0% Female 21% 42% 19% 16% 2% Male 19% 39% 30% 10% 1% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18 to 29 25% 36% 19% 17% 3% 30 to 44 19% 40% 23% 16% 2% 45 to 64 18% 42% 31% 9% 0% 65 and over 18% 45% 27% 9% 1% Elementary school or less 6% 20% 36% 36% 2% High school 16% 38% 26% 18% 1% 19% 42% 23% 14% 1% University degree 23% 41% 25% 8% 2% Refused 0% 12% 58% 30% 0% 10% 44% 29% 17% 0% Wildrose Alliance 8% 42% 43% 6% 1% Liberal 24% 44% 15% 16% 1% NDP 68% 24% 4% 4% 0% Another party 26% 44% 13% 12% 4%

11 Which political party do you trust the most to manage Alberta s oil sands? Wildrose Alliance Liberal NDP Another party None of them Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Alberta 33% 21% 16% 12% 3% 16% Northern Alberta 36% 23% 16% 4% 3% 17% Current Economic Evaluation 33% 14% 20% 15% 4% 13% 38% 26% 10% 10% 2% 14% 34% 23% 15% 9% 2% 18% Southern Alberta 26% 25% 12% 20% 1% 16% Female 36% 16% 14% 13% 2% 19% Male 31% 25% 17% 11% 3% 13% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18 to 29 39% 9% 21% 12% 2% 17% 30 to 44 25% 22% 17% 15% 3% 18% 45 to 64 33% 30% 11% 10% 3% 14% 65 and over 40% 21% 13% 11% 2% 13% Elementary school or less 54% 10% 10% 6% 6% 14% High school 39% 22% 14% 10% 2% 13% 31% 25% 15% 12% 2% 16% University degree 31% 17% 18% 14% 4% 17% Refused 23% 28% 0% 17% 0% 32% Very good 54% 14% 14% 10% 2% 6% Good 36% 19% 15% 11% 3% 15% Ok 24% 26% 17% 12% 1% 20% Poor 9% 24% 18% 18% 3% 29% Very poor 4% 40% 3% 29% 7% 17% 77% 3% 5% 7% 0% 8% Wildrose Alliance 12% 68% 1% 4% 2% 12% Liberal 13% 5% 62% 6% 1% 13% NDP 9% 5% 17% 56% 0% 12% Another party 14% 5% 16% 5% 35% 25%

12 Overall, how would you rate the current state of the Alberta economy? Very good Good Okay Poor Very poor Refused Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage Alberta 20% 41% 29% 7% 2% 1% Northern Alberta 24% 38% 28% 7% 2% 1% Education level Vote Intention Edmonton and the including Red Deer 21% 40% 29% 6% 3% 1% 19% 46% 30% 4% 0% 1% 19% 41% 29% 8% 2% 1% Southern Alberta 16% 42% 32% 7% 2% 2% Female 18% 42% 29% 7% 2% 1% Male 21% 40% 29% 6% 2% 1% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18 to 29 19% 43% 29% 6% 0% 3% 30 to 44 20% 43% 28% 6% 3% 1% 45 to 64 18% 38% 34% 7% 3% 1% 65 and over 22% 40% 27% 8% 2% 1% Elementary school or less 33% 27% 18% 3% 6% 14% High school 16% 38% 32% 10% 3% 1% 19% 41% 30% 8% 2% 0% University degree 22% 44% 27% 3% 1% 1% Refused 0% 19% 28% 23% 0% 30% 28% 48% 22% 2% 0% 0% Wildrose Alliance 15% 39% 33% 8% 4% 1% Liberal 19% 43% 26% 11% 0% 0% NDP 18% 34% 34% 5% 5% 4% Another party 10% 36% 45% 6% 3% 1%