EMBARGOED UNTIL 12:01AM THURSDAY APRIL 9, 2015 CHRISTIE S NEGATIVE RATINGS CONTINUE; NEW LOWS FOR OVERALL JOB APPROVAL, SANDY, AND TAXES

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1 Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey Fax: EMBARGOED UNTIL 12:01AM THURSDAY APRIL 9, 2015 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll Director David Redlawsk may be contacted at (cell), (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu until 11:00pm. Poll manager Ashley Koning may be contacted at or akoning@rutgers.edu. Questions and tables are available during embargo at 15-Embargoed.pdf. Visit our blog at for additional commentary. Follow the on Facebook and CHRISTIE S NEGATIVE RATINGS CONTINUE; NEW LOWS FOR OVERALL JOB APPROVAL, SANDY, AND TAXES finds Six in Ten Voters Say Garden State is on the Wrong Track NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. As N.J. Gov. Chris Christie increases his focus on a potential presidential campaign, he continues to be met with negativity back home, according to the latest. Fifty-four percent of New Jersey registered voters disapprove of the overall job Christie is doing as governor, while 41 percent approve. Though relatively steady from February, this is his highest job disapproval to date. On Superstorm Sandy recovery, Christie s job approval has dropped below 50 percent for the first time: 48 percent now approve, down 7 points from February and far below his April 2013 peak of 87 percent. Forty-four percent currently disapprove his work on Sandy recovery. Approval ratings for Christie on issues other than Sandy recovery are also low. Christie reaches new depths on taxes (26 percent approve, 65 disapprove) and the state budget (28 percent approve, 61 disapprove), and maintains his low water mark of 31 percent approval on the economy and jobs. Christie s overall favorability rating stands at 48 percent unfavorable, somewhat improved from his 53 percent unfavorable rating in February. The 38 percent who are favorable is essentially unchanged from February s 37 percent favorable. Negativity toward Christie himself parallels voters assessments of the direction of the state itself. Sixty percent of voters say the Garden State is on the wrong track, the highest number since just before Christie s first election in October Thirty percent say New Jersey is going in the right direction a 10-point drop from December 2014 and less than half of the quarter-century high of 61 percent in June Often, as the economy improves, voters feel more positive. But in this state there is now widespread feeling that things are on the wrong track, said David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers University. While the governor continues to explore a national run, voters back home are expressing more and more concern about what s happening in New Jersey and the governor s performance in dealing with these issues. 1

2 Results are from a statewide poll of 860 adults contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Mar. 27- Apr. 3, 2015, including 722 registered voters reported on in this release. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Interviews were done in English and, when requested, Spanish. Christie losing Republican support at home Despite the relative steadiness of Christie s overall ratings between February and now, there seems to be growing dissent on the governor s job performance amongst his base. Democrats (24 percent approval) and independents (40 percent approval) remain steady in their assessments. Republicans, however, show a double-digit drop over the past two months; job approval is down 10 points to 69 percent and disapproval is up 11 points to 27 percent. Moreover, while 68 percent of GOP voters continue to have a favorable impression of Christie, this is down five points from February. About a quarter of Democrats and 36 percent of independents have a favorable impression of Christie, with Democrats steady over the past two months and independents up five points. Republicans continue to be split over Christie s performance on important issues. On their top concern, taxes, 44 percent approve of his approach while 49 percent disapprove. They are slightly more positive on the economy and jobs (47 percent approve to 44 percent disapprove); Christie receives approval from only about a quarter of Democrats and independents in these two areas. On the state pension fund, Christie s lowest-rated issue with 22 percent approval from all voters, a plurality of Republicans remains in the governor s corner 45 percent approve (up 8 points from February) and 34 percent disapprove (down 5 points). On the other hand, Democrats and independents rate performance here worst of all, at 8 percent and 22 percent, respectively. It is one thing to lose support among Democrats and even independents, but losing GOP voters is a big problem, said Redlawsk. We re now seeing the decline in support for Christie among Republicans that we predicted in February based on leading indicators. When those who should be Christie s strongest cheerleaders turn away, things are clearly not going well for him here in New Jersey. Christie still receives high marks from Republicans on crime and drugs (69 percent), education (62 percent), and the state budget (54 percent), but 75 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of independents now disapprove of Christie s performance on the budget. Approval on Sandy drops within regions most affected As of February, a majority of New Jersey voters continued to support Christie s Hurricane Sandy recovery efforts, always his strength. Two months later, even Sandy recovery approval has taken a downward turn for the governor. As recently as October 2014, 60 percent approved of his job performance on Sandy; today, only 48 percent do. This decline is seen across multiple groups. Republicans support is down 11 points to 60 percent, while 31 percent now disapprove of Christie s efforts. Democrats approval on Sandy has fallen 2

3 8 points to 39 percent, with 56 percent disapproving. Half of independents express approval on the governor s recovery efforts the only issue to reach 50 percent approval among this group though this is down four points, while 42 percent now disapprove. Christie also loses support on Sandy in areas where it counts the most regions particularly affected by the storm two and a half years ago. In shore counties, Christie drew 60 percent approval two months ago, but more of those voters are now negative than positive on Sandy recovery 46 percent approve to 49 percent disapprove. Urbanites also show a similar drop of 15 points, with approval now at 43 percent, while 49 percent disapprove. Voters living in the southern region of the state near Philadelphia similarly fell 9 points to 49 percent approve (43 percent disapprove). About half of suburbanites and 54 percent of exurbanites approve of Christie s job on Sandy. Increasingly negative outlook on state of the Garden State While voters views on the direction of New Jersey as a whole have not been generally positive since January 2014, the proportion who say the state is on the wrong track hit its highest point in six years, reaching a level of dissatisfaction rarely seen in the past two and a half decades. Partisans of all stripes show a less positive view on the state over the past two months. Democrats and Republicans who say the state is going in the right direction are both down 7 points, now at 25 percent and 43 percent, respectively; independents are down three points, now at 28 percent. A solid majority of Democrats and independents believe New Jersey has gotten off on the wrong track, as does a plurality of Republicans. Opinions of both men and women are equally negative: about six in ten say the state is on the wrong track. Declines in assessment of the state s direction are especially clear among younger voters and seniors: just 28 percent of those 18 to 39 years old (down 14 points from February) and 24 percent of those 65 years and older (down 8 points) maintain a positive outlook. The state s voters have grown more negative across all regions. Negative views on Christie are particularly tied to negative views of the state 79 percent of those unfavorable toward the governor also say New Jersey is off on the wrong track; just 13 percent say the opposite. Those favorable toward Christie are somewhat more split: 54 percent say New Jersey is going in the right direction, while 37 percent say wrong track. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 3

4 Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of April 9, 2015 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters; all percentages are of weighted results. Q. First, I'd like to ask about some people and groups. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. If you do not know the name, just say so. [OTHER NAMES ALSO GIVEN; ORDER RANDOMIZED; MOST HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE; MENENDEZ ALL ADULTS RESULTS RELEASED ] Registered Voters NJ Right/Wrong Track Most Important Problem GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE Right Direction Wrong Track Economy and Jobs Gov. Taxes Corruption Favorable 38% 68% 23% 37% 48% 24% Unfavorable 48% 20% 64% 52% 40% 61% No opn/don t know person 14% 11% 13% 11% 12% 15% Unwgt N= Trend 2/15 12/14 10/14 8/14 4/14 2/14 1/14 11/13 10/13 9/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 11/12 9/12 8/12 6/12 Fav 37% 44% 42% 49% 50% 49% 46% 65% 61% 60% 64% 64% 70% 67% 48% 49% 50% Unfav 53% 46% 45% 40% 42% 40% 43% 27% 28% 32% 26% 26% 20% 25% 42% 40% 39% DK 10% 11% 12% 10% 9% 11% 11% 8% 11% 8% 11% 10% 10% 9% 11% 11% 11% N= ,064 Trend 3/12 2/12 11/11 10/11 8/11 4/11 2/11 Fav 46% 47% 49% 49% 45% 44% 46% Unfav 42% 42% 37% 39% 47% 42% 44% DK 12% 11% 14% 12% 8% 14% 10% N=

5 Registered Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Voters Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Nonwhite Favorable 23% 36% 68% 20% 41% 47% 39% 37% 43% 29% 27% 46% 36% Unfavorable 68% 47% 21% 72% 45% 35% 46% 50% 45% 57% 54% 45% 49% Don t know 10% 18% 11% 8% 14% 19% 14% 13% 13% 14% 19% 10% 14% Unwt N= Region Favorable 27% 35% 52% 34% 44% Unfavorable 58% 51% 39% 46% 49% Don t know 15% 14% 10% 20% 7% Unwt N= [QUESTIONS ON OTHER POLITICAL FIGURES LOCATED HERE; MOST HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE; MENENDEZ ALL ADULTS RESULTS RELEASED ] Q. Please rate how Chris Christie is handling his job as governor, using a grading scale from A to F. You can give him any full letter grade, A, B, C, D, or F. NJ Right/Wrong Track Most Important Problem Right Direction Wrong Track Economy and Jobs Taxes Gov. Corruption A 5% 10% 2% 5% 7% 3% B 25% 48% 15% 25% 27% 17% C 28% 27% 26% 22% 33% 25% D 18% 8% 21% 23% 17% 20% F 24% 7% 36% 25% 16% 35% DK 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Unwt N= Trend 2/15 12/4 10/14 4/14 1/14 11/13 10/13 9/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 11/12 9/12 8/12 6/12 A 8% 8% 10% 13% 12% 21% 21% 17% 24% 21% 24% 28% 18% 15% 15% B 23% 31% 25% 31% 31% 38% 39% 36% 34% 39% 40% 33% 29% 30% 31% C 26% 22% 28% 24% 27% 22% 21% 23% 24% 22% 22% 22% 22% 25% 24% D 21% 17% 16% 16% 15% 10% 9% 13% 9% 10% 9% 11% 15% 13% 15% F 22% 21% 19% 16% 14% 8% 9% 10% 8% 7% 4% 5% 15% 16% 14% DK 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% Unwt N= ,063 Trend 3/12 2/12 11/11 10/11 8/11 4/11 2/11 A 12% 16% 18% 14% 13% 14% 14% B 31% 27% 28% 30% 25% 32% 24% C 25% 24% 21% 27% 18% 20% 26% D 13% 14% 17% 14% 24% 14% 15% F 17% 18% 13% 14% 19% 21% 19% DK 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% Unwt N=

6 Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Registered Voters Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Nonwhite A 1% 3% 16% 0% 6% 7% 3% 6% 5% 4% 2% 6% 6% B 14% 26% 41% 15% 26% 36% 32% 20% 29% 19% 25% 28% 21% C 25% 31% 25% 25% 29% 28% 27% 29% 28% 27% 29% 29% 23% D 24% 16% 12% 25% 16% 12% 17% 18% 17% 18% 21% 15% 19% F 35% 24% 6% 35% 23% 16% 21% 27% 21% 32% 22% 22% 30% DK 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Unwt N= Region A 2% 4% 10% 5% 5% B 23% 26% 29% 20% 28% C 25% 25% 30% 35% 25% D 14% 20% 11% 16% 24% F 35% 25% 21% 25% 17% DK 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Unwt N= Q. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as governor? Christie Favorability NJ Right/Wrong Track Most Important Problem Fav Unfav Right Direction Wrong Track Economy and Jobs Taxes Gov. Corruption Approve 41% 87% 5% 74% 25% 33% 49% 34% Disapprove 54% 9% 94% 23% 71% 62% 48% 62% Don't know 5% 5% 1% 3% 4% 4% 3% 5% Unwgt N=

7 Trend 2/15 12/14 10/14 8/14 4/14 2/14 1/14 11/13 10/13 9/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 11/12 Approve 42% 48% 49% 52% 55% 55% 53% 68% 67% 66% 70% 68% 73% 67% Disapprove 52% 47% 46% 41% 41% 39% 41% 26% 29% 31% 25% 26% 23% 26% Don t know 6% 5% 5% 7% 4% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 7% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Registered Non- Voters Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White white Approve 24% 40% 69% 24% 42% 55% 43% 39% 46% 29% 33% 47% 37% Disapprove 74% 52% 27% 73% 51% 41% 52% 56% 50% 63% 59% 49% 58% Don t know 2% 7% 4% 3% 7% 3% 6% 5% 4% 7% 8% 4% 4% Unwt N= Region Approve 31% 35% 54% 43% 44% Disapprove 64% 58% 43% 50% 53% Don t know 4% 7% 3% 6% 3% Unwt N= Q. I am going to list some specific areas where I would like you to tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing. First: [RANDOMIZE ORDER] NJ s economy and jobs Taxes Education and schools Sandy recovery Crime and drugs The state budget State Pension fund situation Approve 31% 26% 37% 48% 47% 28% 22% Disapprove 60% 65% 55% 44% 37% 61% 60% Don t know 9% 9% 8% 8% 16% 11% 18% Unwgt N=

8 NJ s Economy and Jobs Christie Favorability Christie Overall Job Approval Most Imp Problem Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Economy/Jobs Approve 31% 56% 12% 60% 11% 19% Disapprove 60% 34% 82% 31% 84% 75% Don't know 9% 10% 6% 9% 6% 6% Unwgt N= Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Approve 25% 28% 47% 31% 31% 32% 30% 32% 26% 28% 41% 35% 25% Disapprove 68% 61% 44% 64% 60% 57% 62% 59% 62% 62% 56% 58% 62% Don t know 7% 10% 8% 5% 10% 11% 8% 9% 12% 10% 3% 7% 13% Unwt N= Taxes Christie Favorability Christie Overall Job Approval Most Imp Problem Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Taxes Approve 26% 47% 11% 50% 10% 26% Disapprove 65% 42% 85% 39% 85% 67% Don't know 9% 11% 4% 11% 5% 7% Unwgt N= Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Approve 18% 25% 44% 23% 25% 33% 30% 23% 21% 24% 37% 22% 31% Disapprove 75% 64% 49% 69% 65% 61% 60% 69% 68% 65% 56% 73% 61% Don t know 7% 11% 7% 8% 10% 7% 10% 9% 11% 11% 7% 6% 8% Unwt N= Education and Schools Christie Favorability Christie Overall Approval Most Imp Problem Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Education/Schools Approve 37% 67% 15% 67% 16% 17% Disapprove 55% 25% 80% 24% 79% 79% Don't know 8% 8% 5% 9% 5% 4% Unwgt N= * * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution 8

9 Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Approve 19% 39% 62% 20% 38% 51% 40% 34% 29% 38% 38% 35% 45% Disapprove 75% 53% 29% 76% 54% 40% 52% 58% 63% 53% 52% 62% 50% Don t know 6% 8% 9% 4% 8% 9% 8% 7% 8% 10% 10% 4% 5% Unwt N= Hurricane Sandy Recovery Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 48% 65% 34% 69% 33% Disapprove 44% 25% 63% 23% 63% Don't know 8% 10% 4% 9% 5% Unwgt N= Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Approve 39% 50% 60% 41% 48% 56% 52% 45% 43% 48% 54% 49% 46% Disapprove 56% 42% 31% 54% 44% 35% 42% 46% 49% 43% 41% 43% 49% Don t know 5% 9% 9% 4% 8% 9% 6% 9% 9% 9% 5% 8% 5% Unwt N= Crime and drugs Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 47% 67% 30% 68% 31% Disapprove 37% 18% 53% 17% 53% Don't know 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% Unwgt N= Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Approve 39% 43% 69% 41% 47% 56% 48% 46% 31% 44% 57% 48% 54% Disapprove 45% 39% 19% 41% 36% 31% 37% 37% 56% 38% 29% 34% 30% Don t know 16% 18% 12% 18% 17% 14% 15% 17% 13% 18% 14% 18% 16% Unwt N=

10 The state budget Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 28% 56% 9% 57% 8% Disapprove 61% 30% 87% 27% 87% Don't know 11% 15% 4% 15% 5% Unwgt N= Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Approve 15% 26% 54% 18% 27% 44% 35% 22% 19% 24% 39% 20% 42% Disapprove 75% 62% 36% 74% 61% 47% 56% 65% 67% 66% 54% 65% 48% Don t know 10% 12% 11% 8% 12% 9% 8% 13% 14% 10% 7% 15% 10% Unwt N= The state pension fund situation Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 22% 44% 7% 46% 5% Disapprove 60% 33% 85% 30% 85% Don't know 18% 23% 8% 24% 10% Unwgt N= Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Approve 8% 22% 45% 9% 22% 38% 27% 18% 23% 17% 26% 19% 29% Disapprove 78% 58% 34% 76% 59% 46% 54% 64% 61% 61% 49% 67% 57% Don t know 14% 20% 21% 16% 19% 17% 19% 18% 16% 21% 25% 14% 14% Unwt N= Q. Would you say the state of New Jersey is currently going in the right direction or has it gone off on the wrong track? Christie Overall Approval Christie Econ. and Jobs Christie Favorability Most Important Problem Christie Taxes Econ./ Gov. Fav Unfav App Dis jobs Taxes Corrupt App Dis App Dis Going in the right direction 30% 54% 13% 54% 13% 27% 33% 25% 61% 14% 57% 18% On the wrong track 60% 37% 79% 37% 78% 66% 57% 67% 33% 78% 35% 73% Don't know 10% 9% 8% 10% 9% 7% 10% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% Unwgt N=

11 Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Registered Nonwhite Voters Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Right direction 25% 28% 43% 30% 27% 39% 32% 28% 29% 32% 28% 34% 24% Wrong track 65% 60% 49% 62% 62% 50% 59% 60% 59% 61% 57% 60% 62% Don t know 10% 12% 8% 8% 11% 11% 9% 12% 11% 7% 15% 5% 14% Unwt N= Region Right direction 25% 28% 33% 28% 36% Wrong track 60% 64% 55% 60% 55% Don t know 15% 8% 12% 11% 9% Unwt N= The was conducted by telephone using live callers March 27 April 3, 2015 with a scientifically selected random sample of 860 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. The sample contains a subsample of 722 registered voters. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult male or female currently available. If the named gender is not available, the youngest adult of the other gender is interviewed. The poll was available in Spanish for respondents who requested it. This telephone poll included 545 landline and 315 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing using a sample obtained from Survey Sampling International. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 15% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 21% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 58% Landline Only: 6% Data were weighted to the demographics adults in New Jersey. Weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5 th and 95 th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 860 adults is +/-3.2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.27, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 3.8 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for the 722 registered voters is +/-3.6 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The registered voter subsample weighting design effect is 1.21, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.0 percentage points for the registered voter subsample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46.0 and 54.0 percent (50 +/-4.0) if all New Jersey registered voters had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. 11

12 This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Full questionnaires are available on request, and can also be accessed at the Eagleton Poll archive at For more information, please contact eagleton.poll@rutgers.edu. Weighted Sample Characteristics 722 New Jersey Adults 33% Democrat 46% Male 21% % White 47% Independent 54% Female 23% % Black 20% Republican 32% % Hispanic 24% 65+ 8% Asian/Other/Multi 12