EMBARGOED UNTIL 12:01AM WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 18, 2015 A BULLY FOR PRESIDENT? NEW JERSEY VOTERS QUESTION IF CHRISTIE HAS WHAT IT TAKES FOR 2016

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1 Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey Fax: EMBARGOED UNTIL 12:01AM WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 18, 2015 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll Director David Redlawsk may be contacted at (cell), (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu until 11:00pm. Poll manager Ashley Koning may be contacted at or akoning@rutgers.edu. Questions and tables are available during embargo at 15-Embargoed.pdf. Visit our blog at for additional commentary. Follow the on Facebook and A BULLY FOR PRESIDENT? NEW JERSEY VOTERS QUESTION IF CHRISTIE HAS WHAT IT TAKES FOR 2016 Two-thirds of respondents say governor puts 2016 ahead of New Jersey NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. As Gov. Chris prepares for a 2016 presidential run in the midst of declining ratings at home, 59 percent of New Jersey voters say he would not make a good president, according to a new. Just 34 percent believe would do well in the Oval Office. Perceptions of s attitude and behavior haunt his chances for 2016, according to voters here. Asked to best describe the governor in a single word, voters respond with bully, arrogant, selfish, aggressive, and bad at the top of the list. But there also are positives further down in the top 10, such as good, honest, strong, tough and ambitious. Voters views on a presidency are also shaped by perceptions that the governor is lacking in qualifications to become commander-in-chief. Thirty-seven percent say he has the right look to be president, 36 percent say he has the right demeanor and personality, and 45 percent say he has the right amount of experience when considered against other potential Republican contenders. Governor s numbers are a far cry from the very positive results we reported yesterday for Hillary Clinton, said David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers University. While voters views of Clinton are upbeat, the negative ratings given to s gubernatorial performance we reported last week are clearly influencing perceptions of him as a president. Voters in the Garden State are now more likely than ever at 68 percent, up 13 points from December to say s positions on issues, and his decisions on whether to sign or veto bills, are more about a potential presidential run than what is best for New Jersey. Just 22 percent feel he is putting the state first. Half of voters also say s travel schedule hurts his ability to be an effective governor, while 44 percent say it does not. Despite this, voters are evenly split on whether will become the 2016 GOP nominee. Thirteen percent say this is very likely while 36 percent think it is somewhat likely. Another 49 percent 1

2 think it is either somewhat unlikely (27 percent) or not at all likely (22 percent). Results are from a statewide poll of 813 residents contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Feb. 3-10, 2015, including 694 registered voters reported on in this release. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Interviews were done in English and, when requested, Spanish. in a word? Bully While respondents offered more than 200 one-word or one-phrase descriptions of the governor, a few words were offered repeatedly. Ten percent used the word bully and more than 7 percent said arrogant. At 4 percent, good was the most popular positive word given. Of the 20 most frequently used words, the top three bully, arrogant and selfish are all negative, with about 20 percent of voters using them to describe, said Redlawsk. Good and honest follow those three, but total only 6 percent combined. Bully comes to mind for a sizable share of Democrats (15 percent) and independents (9 percent). Arrogant is second with both, and selfish is not far behind. But not all their top adjectives are bad news for the governor: good actually ranks third among Democrats. Republicans are more varied in their responses. Honest is first (4 percent) while other positives (excellent, fair, good, strong) and some negatives (aggressive, arrogant, selfish) are each named by 3 percent. Overall, Republicans are less consistent than Democrats in the words they use. s presidential prospects fall far short of Clinton s As with s gubernatorial ratings, views on a potential President are much more positive among his base than they are among Democrats or even independents. But support among the New Jersey GOP does not match the intensity with which independents and Democrats rally around Hillary Clinton. The 72 percent of Republicans who say would make a good president falls well short of the 89 percent of Democrats who say the same about Clinton. Also, only 19 percent of Democrats see as a good president, but 27 percent of Republicans think this about Clinton. More importantly, just 28 percent of independents say would be a good president, far from the 60 percent of this group who back Clinton in the same scenario. Voters give lukewarm scores in terms of a potential presidency, with the majority holding a negative outlook, as opposed to the exceedingly positive one they give Clinton. Even GOP intensity for their governor is not as strong as Democrats for Clinton. Fifty-eight percent of Republican voters say has the right look to be president, just eight points higher than their percentage for 2

3 Clinton. Twenty-seven percent of Democrats and 36 percent of independents feel the same about much lower than their thoughts on his potential Democratic opponent. Sixty-two percent of Republican voters, 20 percent of Democrats, and 36 percent of independents say has the right demeanor and personality for the top job. While GOP views are much higher in this area than they are for Clinton, independents and especially Democrats are far less positive here for. As for experience, Republican views on (at 62 percent) are virtually the same as on Clinton. Three in 10 Democrats feel has enough experience, while independents are more split on his credentials. New Jersey is more Democratic than Republican, which accounts for some of Clinton s apparent advantage, said Redlawsk. But when GOP voters give marks on presidential characteristics that are only marginally higher than hers, has serious fence-mending to do with New Jersey voters. GOP grows divided over s presidential preparations Voters have grown increasingly negative about s views, actions, and time spent out of state the last several months, believing ulterior presidential motives are behind his decisions. s national focus has not gone unnoticed, even among his base. Republicans are now split over whether s recent words and deeds been about what is best for the Garden State or for his own presidential run. Forty-five percent of Republicans say his decision are about New Jersey, down 12 points since December. Nearly as many, 43 percent, think is making decisions with his eyes on the White House, up 16 points. Just 12 percent of Democrats believe is doing what is best for New Jersey; 82 percent do not. Independents views of s motivations are also negative: 20 percent think he s acting for the state versus 68 percent who say decisions are about a presidential run. Opinions are similarly divided over how s travel schedule affects his ability to govern: 67 percent of Republicans say his frequent trips have no effect (down seven points), but 52 percent of independents up 10 points, reaching a majority for the first time and 60 percent of Democrats (up eight points) say it has hurt his ability to govern effectively. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 3

4 Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of February 18, 2015 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters; all percentages are of weighted results. [PRECEDED BY QUESTIONS ON FAVORABILITY AND APPROVAL OF CHRIS CHRISTIE AND OTHER POLITICAL FIGURES PREVIOUSLY RELEASED] Q. And, what ONE WORD would you say best describes Chris? [LIST OF ALL RESPONSES AT 1% OR MORE] Bully 10% Fair 2% Bold 1% Arrogant 7% Okay 1% Stubborn 1% Selfish 4% Asshole 1% Tenacious 1% Good 4% Liar 1% Loud 1% Honest 2% Obnoxious 1% Decisive 1% Aggressive 2% Determined 1% Other 48% Strong 2% Fat 1% Unwgt N= 686 Bad 2% Outspoken 1% Tough 2% Politician 1% Ambitious 2% Blowhard 1% Top 10 Words by Party Identification Dem Ind Rep Bully 15% Bully 9% Honest 4% Arrogant 8% Arrogant 7% Aggressive 3% Good 6% Selfish 4% Arrogant 3% Selfish 5% Aggressive 3% Excellent 3% Bad 3% Asshole 2% Fair 3% Obnoxious 3% Bad 2% Good 3% Blowhard 2% Bold 2% Selfish 3% Okay 2% Good 2% Strong 3% Tough 2% Honest 2% Ambitious 2% Aggressive 1% Liar 2% Approachable 2% Unwt N= Word Cloud: One word that best describes 4

5 Q. In general, are the decisions Governor is making lately about various issues, including whether to sign or veto bills, more about [ROTATE ORDER: what s best for NJ or more about his potential run for president]? Trend RV RV RV Fav Unfav 12/14 8/14 11/13 Best for New Jersey 22% 49% 4% 29% 38% 44% Potential run for president 68% 39% 89% 55% 48% 33% Don't know 10% 12% 7% 16% 14% 23%* Unwgt N= * Don't know and both categories combined here Best for NJ 12% 20% 45% 13% 22% 35% 21% 23% 26% 14% 20% 21% 27% Potential run 82% 68% 43% 78% 69% 51% 70% 65% 63% 79% 71% 69% 62% Don't know 6% 12% 12% 9% 8% 14% 8% 11% 11% 7% 9% 10% 11% Unwt N= Q. Governor has frequently travelled outside of New Jersey over the last several months, including trips to key swing states and international travel. Do you think the governor s travel schedule has hurt his ability to be an effective governor in New Jersey, or has it not affected his ability to govern? Trend RV RV RV Fav Unfav 12/14 8/14 11/13 Hurts his ability 50% 24% 68% 41% 36% 30% Does not have an effect 44% 68% 26% 52% 57% 58% Helps ability to govern (vol) 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% Don't know 6% 7% 4% 5% 6% 6% Unwgt N= Hurts 60% 52% 28% 63% 50% 36% 51% 49% 49% 50% 47% 52% 48% No effect 32% 43% 67% 31% 44% 56% 44% 44% 46% 38% 51% 41% 44% Helps 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% Don't know 7% 5% 3% 5% 6% 5% 4% 7% 4% 10% 1% 7% 7% Unwt N=

6 Q. How likely do you think it is that Chris will become the Republican Party s presidential nominee in 2016? Very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all? Fav Unfav Very likely 13% 19% 8% Somewhat likely 36% 42% 31% Not very likely 27% 24% 31% Not likely at all 22% 12% 29% Don't know 3% 4% 1% Unwgt N= Very likely 15% 11% 13% 13% 13% 12% 9% 15% 12% 15% 15% 12% 13% Somewhat 31% 35% 44% 37% 38% 28% 33% 38% 37% 33% 49% 35% 24% Not very likely 28% 30% 22% 28% 26% 31% 28% 27% 30% 21% 20% 29% 30% Not at all 24% 21% 18% 20% 20% 28% 27% 17% 19% 27% 16% 21% 30% Don't know 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4% 2% 4% 1% 3% 3% Unwt N= [THE FOLLOWING FOUR QUESTIONS WERE ASKED FOR BOTH HILLARY CLINTON AND CHRIS CHRISTIE. CANDIDATE ORDER FOR THIS SET OF CLINTON AND CHRISTIE ITEMS WAS ROTATED. CLINTON RESPONSES PREVIOUSLY RELEASED 2/17/2015] Q. Do you think Chris would or would not make a good president? Fav Unfav He would make a good president 34% 74% 7% He would not make a good president 59% 18% 88% Don't know 8% 8% 5% Unwgt N= He would 19% 28% 72% 23% 32% 53% 40% 29% 39% 22% 34% 32% 38% He would not 73% 64% 23% 72% 60% 39% 54% 62% 54% 69% 59% 61% 55% Don't know 8% 8% 5% 5% 8% 8% 6% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% Unwt N=

7 Q. For each of the following, please tell me whether it does or does not apply to Chris, compared to other potential Republican presidential candidates. A. He has the right look to be president B. He has the right demeanor and personality to be president C. He has the right amount of experience to be president Right Right Right look demeanor experience Yes, applies 37% 36% 45% No, does not apply 53% 61% 51% Don't know 10% 3% 4% Unwgt N= A. Right look to be president Fav Unfav Yes 27% 36% 58% 36% 35% 46% 41% 35% 41% 30% 37% 38% 37% 58% 22% No 63% 55% 32% 56% 55% 44% 52% 54% 50% 61% 57% 53% 50% 31% 69% Don't know 10% 9% 10% 8% 10% 10% 8% 11% 10% 9% 6% 10% 13% 11% 9% Unwt N= B. Right demeanor and personality to be president Fav Unfav Yes 20% 36% 62% 25% 35% 54% 39% 34% 38% 32% 43% 34% 35% 69% 14% No 77% 60% 36% 74% 62% 41% 57% 64% 59% 64% 54% 63% 62% 28% 84% Don't know 2% 4% 3% 1% 3% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Unwt N= C. Right amount of experience to be president Fav Unfav Yes 31% 48% 62% 34% 45% 63% 47% 43% 50% 34% 53% 43% 41% 69% 27% No 65% 49% 32% 64% 50% 34% 50% 52% 47% 61% 45% 53% 54% 26% 72% Don't know 4% 3% 6% 3% 4% 3% 3% 5% 4% 5% 2% 4% 5% 6% 2% Unwt N= [END OF QUESTION ORDER ROTATION] 7

8 Q. Overall, how closely have you been following any news on the 2016 presidential election? Very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? Very closely 21% Somewhat closely 40% Not very closely 27% Not closely at all 11% Unwgt N= 693 Very closely 23% 17% 27% 20% 17% 32% 24% 19% 21% 21% 14% 19% 31% Somewhat 41% 42% 36% 46% 39% 38% 43% 38% 42% 36% 30% 44% 42% Not very 25% 29% 28% 24% 30% 22% 26% 29% 27% 29% 31% 29% 21% Not at all 11% 13% 9% 9% 13% 8% 8% 15% 10% 14% 25% 8% 6% Unwt N= Q. The 2016 presidential election is actually more than a year and a half away. Do you think there has been too much coverage on 2016 already, too little, or just the right amount? Too much coverage 34% Too little coverage 15% Just the right amount 47% Don't know 4% Unwgt N= 691 Too much 28% 38% 36% 33% 34% 31% 39% 30% 38% 24% 27% 32% 46% Too little 14% 14% 17% 21% 12% 16% 12% 17% 12% 21% 19% 14% 11% Just right 52% 45% 45% 45% 47% 51% 48% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 40% Don't know 6% 4% 2% 1% 6% 2% 1% 7% 3% 6% 5% 4% 3% Unwt N= February 3 10, 2015 The was conducted by telephone using live callers February 3-10, 2015 with a scientifically selected random sample of 813 New Jersey adults. The sample contains a subsample of 694 registered voters. The poll was available in Spanish for respondents who requested to do it in that language. This telephone poll included 290 landline and 523 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 13% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 23% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 59% Landline Only: 5% 8

9 Data were weighted to the demographics adults in New Jersey. Weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5th and 95th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 813 adults is +/-3.4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.41, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.1 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for the 694 registered voters is +/-3.7 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The registered voter subsample weighting design effect is 1.30, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.2 percentage points for the registered voter subsample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 45.8 and 54.2 percent (50 +/-4.2) if all New Jersey registered voters had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 694 New Jersey Registered Voters 34% Democrat 47% Male 13% % White 45% Independent 53% Female 30% % Black 21% Republican 32% % Hispanic 24% % Asian/Other/Multi 9