NJ VOTERS EXPECT CHRISTIE TO MAKE DEBATE, BUT SAY HIS BEST CHANCE FOR GOP NOMINATION IS BEHIND HIM

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1 Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey Fax: IMMEDIATE RELEASE MONDAY AUGUST 3, 2015 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll Asst. Director Ashley Koning may be contacted at (cell), (office), or akoning@rutgers.edu. Poll Director David Redlawsk may be reached at (cell), (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Questions and tables are available at Find all releases and additional blog commentary at Follow the on Facebook at and NJ VOTERS EXPECT CHRISTIE TO MAKE DEBATE, BUT SAY HIS BEST CHANCE FOR GOP NOMINATION IS BEHIND HIM Trump stands atop list for NJ Republicans; Christie distant second NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. As Gov. Chris Christie clings to the last spot in national polling for Thursday s primetime Republican presidential debate, most New Jersey voters expect him to make the top 10, according to the latest. Just under a quarter of registered voters say Christie is very likely to be on the stage, while another 43 percent say it is somewhat likely he will make the event. Just 28 percent think Christie will miss the cutoff for the big debate. New Jersey voters see Christie as a good debater. If he makes the cut Thursday, a third of voters say he will give one of the strongest debate performances, while about half say he will do at least as well as the other contenders. Only about 10 percent think Christie would be one of the weakest debaters. But optimism about Christie and the debate does not translate into good will toward a potential Christie presidency. Seven in 10 voters say Christie would not make a good president, and 55 percent think Christie s best chance for getting the GOP nomination has already come and gone. Only about one-third of New Jersey voters say he still has a shot, while 6 percent say he never had one in the first place, and 5 percent are unsure. About the only thing New Jersey voters and Gov. Christie agree on is their belief that he will make the top 10 Thursday night, said Ashley Koning, assistant director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. New Jerseyans also respect the governor s ability to hold his own if he does join the debate. But they remain sour about the thought of a President Christie and don t expect him to snag the nomination. Most share the growing belief that Christie missed his chance to run for president at the height of his popularity. Christie is also no longer the top choice among New Jersey Republican voters for the nomination. Just as in national polls, Trump fever has spread to Garden State GOPers, with 21 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters naming the businessman as their candidate of choice. Christie comes in a distant second at 12 percent. Yet Trump is held in low esteem in New Jersey: just 27 percent of New Jersey voters say they 1

2 have a favorable opinion of him, while 59 percent have an unfavorable opinion and 15 percent are unsure. Results are from a statewide poll of 867 adults contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from July 25 to August 1, including 757 registered voters reported on in this release. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points. The Republican registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/-6.8 percentage points. Interviews were done in English and, when requested, Spanish. Christie supporters most hopeful about his debate chances While New Jersey voters are mostly positive about the governor s prospects in this week s GOP debate, optimism about Christie s participation and performance is especially strong among those who generally support him. A third of Republicans believe it is very likely Christie will make the top 10 Thursday night, compared to 23 percent of independents and 19 percent of Democrats. Republicans are also most positive when it comes to predicting how Christie would do in the debate itself, with 51 percent saying he would be one of the strongest debaters; 35 percent of independents and 26 percent of Democrats say the same, with another half of each group saying his performance would be about average. Half of voters who say Christie will very likely be in the debate also say he will be one of the strongest candidates that night. Love him or hate him, few in New Jersey think Gov. Christie is completely out of it just yet at least when it comes to this first debate and if he makes it, no one thinks he will be put in a corner by the other candidates on stage, said Koning. The governor is known for his public speaking skills, his confidence and his quick-on-his-feet rebuttals. The opportunity to be on the stage could give Christie the boost he so desperately needs to stand out. And New Jerseyans seem to agree there is a chance he will be there and will succeed. Little faith in a Christie presidency But New Jersey voters still resist the idea of President Christie in general, with views on how he would do as president virtually unchanged since April. Despite Christie s claims of working effectively across party lines, 84 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independents say the governor would not make a good president. Even Republicans remain mixed, with 50 percent saying he would and 45 percent saying he would not. Seventy percent of men and women alike, 80 percent of nonwhite voters, and about 70 percent of voters under 65 feel the same about a Christie presidency. Exurban and shore residents have a more positive outlook than others, with about a third saying he would make a good Commander in Chief. Given the governor s crusade against public employee unions, it is not surprising that 75 percent of voters in public union households say Christie would not make a good president. NJ Republicans want President Trump? 2

3 In what is now a fading memory, when asked in December 2014 to name the candidate they would support for president, 32 percent of New Jersey Republican voters named Gov. Christie as their top choice. Mitt Romney came in far behind at 10 percent and Jeb Bush a distant third at 6 percent. Half a year later, the field looks very different, and some New Jersey GOPers much like their fellow partisans in the rest of the country have turned toward a candidate who has recently been trumping all others in the race: Donald Trump. The entrepreneur is named by a fifth of Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the Garden State as their top pick. Christie garners just over half that number, at 12 percent now just 2 points ahead of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. But just because Republicans name Trump as their top choice does not mean they have an overwhelmingly favorable view of him. Republican views of him are somewhat mixed, with 47 percent assessing him favorably while 35 percent are unfavorable. Trump is far less liked among Democrats (11 percent favorable, 79 percent unfavorable) and independents (29 percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable). Trump is also viewed more negatively by women (62 percent unfavorable), non-white voters (66 percent unfavorable), those who have done graduate work (68 percent unfavorable), and urbanites (68 percent unfavorable). Not a single group gives the business tycoon a favorable majority. Since Trump threw his hat in the ring in June, he has been all over the media and to perhaps the shock of many leading both state and nationwide polls, said Koning. So when we ask Republicans in the Garden State to name their top candidate, it is no wonder Trump is at the forefront of their minds. Whether it is because Trump s name comes up most often in an unprecedentedly large Republican field, or because they share The Donald s views, New Jersey Republicans are looking much like Republicans everywhere now largely abandoning their own governor for the other tell-itlike-it-is candidate from across the river. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES BEGIN ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 3

4 Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of August 3, 2015 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters; all percentages are of weighted results. Q. First, I'd like to ask you about some people. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. If you do not know the name, just say so. [OTHER NAMES ALSO GIVEN AND TO BE RELEASED AT A LATER DATE; ORDER RANDOMIZED] BUSINESSMAN DONALD TRUMP Favorable 27% Unfavorable 59% No opn/don t know person 15% Unwgt N= 755 Favorable 11% 29% 47% 14% 23% 45% 31% 23% 30% 18% 21% 26% 27% 29% Unfavorable 79% 55% 35% 80% 59% 40% 56% 62% 56% 66% 65% 56% 57% 59% Don't know 11% 16% 19% 6% 18% 15% 14% 15% 13% 16% 13% 18% 15% 12% Unwt N= Favorable 34% 22% 29% 21% 20% 25% 29% 23% 37% 28% 26% Unfavorable 52% 61% 56% 68% 68% 60% 61% 56% 51% 57% 60% Don't know 14% 18% 15% 10% 12% 16% 10% 20% 12% 15% 15% Unwt N= [QUESTIONS ON OTHER POLITICAL FIGURES LOCATED HERE] [REPUBLICANS AND GOP-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY] Q. The 2016 presidential election is far away, but thinking ahead to the Republican primary for president, who would be your first choice for the Republican candidate? Just tell me a name. [Includes only potential candidates named by at least one respondent] Donald Trump 21% Mike Huckabee 1% Chris Christie 12% Newt Gingrich 1% Jeb Bush 10% Paul Ryan 1% Scott Walker 10% Rick Perry <1% Ben Carson 5% Carly Fiorina <1% Marco Rubio 5% Lindsey Graham <1% Ted Cruz 4% No one 3% Rand Paul 2% Other 2% John Kasich 2% Don't know 19% Unwght N 263 4

5 [QUESTIONS ON CHRISTIE INDIVIDUAL ISSUE APPROVALS LOCATED HERE; TO BE RELEASED] Q. Last month, Governor Christie officially announced he is running for president. Do you think Governor Christie would or would not make a good president? Aug Apr Feb RV RV RV Would 25% 24% 34% Would not 70% 69% 59% Don't know 6% 7% 8% Unwgt N= Would 11% 22% 50% 11% 22% 43% 26% 24% 30% 15% 25% 21% 23% 28% Would not 84% 71% 45% 85% 73% 46% 70% 70% 65% 80% 71% 72% 71% 65% Don't know 4% 7% 5% 3% 5% 11% 5% 6% 5% 6% 4% 6% 6% 6% Unwt N= Would 26% 21% 29% 23% 20% 21% 33% 18% 36% 22% 26% Would not 66% 74% 66% 75% 73% 75% 62% 76% 57% 75% 68% Don't know 8% 6% 5% 2% 8% 4% 5% 5% 7% 3% 6% Unwt N= Q. Do you think Chris Christie s best chance of winning the Republican nomination for president has already come and gone, or does he still have a shot? Already come and gone 55% Still has a shot 33% Never had a shot in the first place (vol) 6% Don't know 5% Unwgt N= 754 Already gone 60% 56% 50% 60% 57% 47% 60% 51% 58% 54% 51% 52% 57% 61% Still a shot 26% 32% 45% 25% 34% 40% 29% 37% 33% 33% 35% 36% 32% 29% Never had a shot 8% 5% 3% 7% 6% 4% 7% 5% 5% 7% 9% 3% 7% 5% Don't know 6% 7% 2% 7% 4% 8% 4% 7% 4% 7% 5% 8% 4% 5% Unwt N=

6 Already gone 46% 64% 50% 63% 51% 62% 62% 51% 46% 60% 55% Still a shot 45% 26% 35% 26% 34% 27% 32% 31% 46% 30% 34% Never had a shot 3% 6% 8% 7% 9% 5% 3% 9% 4% 3% 7% Don't know 6% 4% 7% 4% 6% 5% 4% 8% 4% 7% 5% Unwt N= Q. The first Republican primary debate will be on August 6th. Only the top ten candidates in recent national polls will be allowed to participate. How likely do you think it is that Chris Christie will be one of the participants in the debate? Very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all? Very likely 24% what likely 43% Not very likely 16% Not likely at all 12% Don't know 4% Unwgt N= 757 Very likely 19% 23% 33% 25% 23% 24% 25% 23% 25% 21% 20% 35% 21% 22% what likely 44% 44% 44% 39% 44% 49% 41% 45% 45% 41% 47% 36% 45% 43% Not very likely 16% 18% 14% 19% 14% 18% 16% 17% 16% 17% 18% 11% 17% 19% Not likely at all 17% 11% 7% 11% 15% 5% 14% 11% 10% 17% 10% 15% 12% 14% Don't know 5% 5% 2% 6% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 3% Unwt N= Very likely 18% 21% 29% 26% 21% 23% 21% 28% 26% 30% 23% what likely 46% 43% 43% 43% 35% 47% 45% 40% 46% 32% 46% Not very likely 16% 15% 14% 22% 13% 20% 16% 17% 12% 20% 16% Not likely at all 16% 17% 11% 7% 24% 8% 15% 10% 11% 10% 12% Don't know 5% 5% 3% 3% 6% 2% 3% 6% 6% 7% 4% Unwt N= Q. If he is in the debate, do you think Chris Christie will give one of the strongest debate performances compared to the other candidates, one of the weakest, or will his performance be about average? 6

7 Likelihood Christie Will Participate in Debate Very what Not very Not at all One of the strongest 36% 51% 37% 26% 15% One of the weakest 12% 3% 8% 21% 30% About average 48% 43% 51% 51% 46% Don't know 4% 3% 3% 2% 8% Unwgt N= Strongest 26% 35% 51% 30% 35% 43% 36% 35% 42% 24% 29% 34% 41% 35% Weakest 17% 13% 3% 17% 12% 6% 11% 13% 10% 16% 17% 8% 11% 13% Average 53% 46% 46% 49% 49% 49% 50% 47% 45% 54% 51% 54% 43% 49% Don't know 5% 6% 0% 4% 4% 2% 2% 6% 3% 6% 3% 3% 6% 3% Unwt N= Strongest 28% 33% 41% 40% 27% 34% 41% 30% 47% 28% 38% Weakest 12% 19% 7% 10% 15% 15% 11% 8% 9% 13% 11% Average 52% 44% 49% 49% 55% 47% 45% 57% 40% 54% 47% Don't know 8% 4% 3% 1% 4% 5% 2% 5% 4% 5% 3% Unwt N= The was conducted by telephone using live callers July 25 August 1, 2015 with a scientifically selected random sample of 867 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. The sample contains a subsample of 757 registered voters. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult male or female currently available. If the named gender is not available, the youngest adult of the other gender is interviewed. The poll was available in Spanish for respondents who requested it. This telephone poll included 505 landline and 362 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing using a sample obtained from Survey Sampling International. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 17% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 25% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 52% Landline Only: 6% Data were weighted to the demographics adults in New Jersey. Weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5 th and 95 th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 867 adults is +/-3.3 7

8 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.37, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 3.9 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for the 757 registered voters is +/-3.6 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The registered voter subsample weighting design effect is 1.27, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.0 percentage points for the registered voter subsample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46.0 and 54.0 percent (50 +/-4.0) if all New Jersey registered voters had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, with additional calling by Braun Research, Inc. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Full questionnaires are available on request, and can also be accessed at the Eagleton Poll archive at For more information, please contact eagleton.poll@rutgers.edu. Weighted Sample Characteristics 757 New Jersey Registered Voters 35% Democrat 47% Male 21% % White 42% Independent 53% Female 21% % Black 23% Republican 33% % Hispanic 24% 65+ 8% Asian/Other/Multi 8