THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL

Transcription

1 THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL April 21, 2016 SANDERS AND KASICH MOST POPULAR AND ELECTABLE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A UNH Survey Center DURHAM, NH New Hampshire Democratic Primary winner Bernie Sanders and New Hampshire Republican Primary runnerup John Kasich are the most popular candidates among New Hampshire likely voters. They also fare the best in hypothetical presidential matchups. Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are unpopular among Granite State likely voters. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Six hundred and twenty-one (621) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between April 7 and April 17, The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.9 percent. Included were five hundred and fifty-three (553) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE = +/- 4.2%) U.S. Presidential Election The 2016 general election is months away and although the outcomes look much clearer, neither party has chosen their nominee for president. Not surprisingly, most New Hampshire voters have not yet decided who they will eventually support in November. Only 40% of likely voters say they have definitely decided who to support, 28% are leaning towards someone, and 32% are still trying to decide. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2016 US Presidential Election-- Decided On Vote 81% 73% 62% 62% 43% 40% 33% 32% Feb. '15 May. '15 July '15 Sept. '15 Jan. '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

2 Favorability of 2016 Presidential Candidates Only two of the five remaining major party candidates Bernie Sanders and John Kasich -- are popular among New Hampshire likely general election voters, while the favorability ratings for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are underwater. Currently, 57% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Sanders, 36% have an unfavorable opinion, 5% are neutral, and 1% don t know enough to say. Sanders net favorability, the percentage who have a favorable opinion of him minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is +21%. Sanders is very popular among Democrats (+78%), somewhat popular among Independents (+13%), and very unpopular among Republicans (-54%). Compared with Sanders, Clinton is viewed quite unfavorably in the eyes of New Hampshire voters. Only 38% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 58% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 3% are neutral. Clinton s net favorability is -20%. Clinton is only moderately popular among Democrats (+39%), and is very unpopular among Independents (-45%), and Republicans (-88%). Among the remaining Republican candidates, John Kasich fares best. Currently, 53% of likely New Hampshire voters have a favorable opinion of Kasich, 31% have an unfavorable opinion, 10% are neutral, and 6% don t know enough to say. Kasich s net favorability is +22%. Kasich is only modestly popular among Republicans (+31%) and Independents (+22%) but is surprisingly popular among Democrats (+13%). Only 21% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Cruz, 72% have an unfavorable opinion, 5% are neutral, and 2% don t know enough to say. Cruz s net favorability is a very low -51%. He is even unpopular among Republicans (-5%), and very unpopular among Independents (-39%), and Democrats (-89%). Trump is even less popular than Cruz. Only 21% of likely New Hampshire voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, 75% have an unfavorable opinion, and 4% are neutral. Trump s net favorability is -54%. Like Cruz, Trump is unpopular among Republicans (-6%), and very unpopular among Independents (-43%), and very unpopular among Democrats (-92%). Favorability Ratings - Presidential Candidates - April Likely Voters Bernie Sanders 57% 5% 36% 1% John Kasich 53% 10% 31% 6% Hillary Clinton 38% 3% 58% 0% Ted Cruz 21% 5% 72% 2% Donald Trump 21% 4% 75% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK

3 While Clinton is the likely Democratic candidate, Sanders fares better than Clinton against potential Republican challengers in New Hampshire. Trump, the New Hampshire primary winner and current frontrunner for the Republican nomination, and Cruz who currently has the second-most delegates both trail Sanders and Clinton by double-digit margins. Kasich, who finished second in the New Hampshire Primary, but is far behind both Trump and Cruz in delegates, leads Clinton by a double digit margin and is in a statistical tie with Sanders. Clinton vs. GOP If the 2016 presidential election was held today and the candidates were Clinton and Trump, 50% of likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Clinton, 31% would vote for Trump, 15% would support another candidate and 4% are undecided. Clinton does better among Democrats (83% to 4%) than Trump does among Republicans (68% to 13%), while Independents are divided (33% for Clinton and 31% for Trump). Support among men for Trump has dissipated in recent months as men currently favor Clinton 42% to 40% while Clinton leads 57% to 23% among women. Support for Trump has decreased 8 percentage points since February. President - Clinton vs. Trump 60% 50% 40% 50% 50% 40% 42% 48% 47% 39% 39% 50% 30% 20% 31% 10% 0% July '15 Sept '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Clinton Trump Other Undecided If the candidates were Clinton and Cruz, 48% of likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Clinton, 34% would vote for Cruz, 15% would support another candidate and 3% are undecided. Clinton leads among Democrats 83% to 4%, Cruz leads 71% to 7% among Republicans and Independents lean towards Cruz by 42% to 32%. Similar to her matchup against Trump, Clinton essentially tied among men (42% to 39%) but leads by double digits among women (53% to 29%). A Cruz Clinton race has stayed steady since February. 60% 50% 40% President - Clinton vs. Cruz 46% 47% 46% 48% 45% 41% 35% 34% 30% 20% 10% 0% May '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Clinton Cruz Other Undecided

4 Kasich continues to lead Clinton if he were to get the Republican nomination. Currently 50% of likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Kasich, 36% would vote for Clinton, 11% would support another candidate and 4% are undecided. Kasich does better among Republicans (89% to 1%) than Clinton does among Democrats (69% to 17%) and Kasich holds a wide 63%-17% lead among Independents. Kasich leads among men by a wide margin (58% to 27%) while Clinton and Kasich are tied among women (44% for Clinton, 42% for Kasich). Kasich has opened up a 14 point lead over Clinton after having been tied in January. 60% 50% 40% 30% 43% 43% President - Clinton vs. Kasich 47% 50% 37% 36% 20% 10% 0% Jan '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Clinton Kasich Other Undecided Sanders vs. GOP In a matchup of New Hampshire primary winners Sanders and Trump, 58% of likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Sanders, only 31% would vote for Trump, 8% would support another candidate and 2% are undecided. Sanders leads among Democrats 94% to 4%, while Trump has only a 69% to 12% lead among Republicans. Independents currently favor Sanders by double digits, 50% to 31%. Sanders has a wide lead among women (66% to 24%) but also a 50% to 38% advantage among men. 60% President - Sanders vs. Trump 57% 57% 55% 58% 50% 40% 30% 37% 34% 34% 31% 20% 10% 0% Sept '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Sanders Trump Other Undecided

5 If the candidates were Sanders and Cruz, 61% of likely voters say they would vote for Sanders, only 30% would vote for Cruz, 7% would support another candidate and 2% are undecided. Sanders leads among Democrats 95% to 2%, Cruz leads among Republicans 73% to 11%, but Sanders leads 61% to 25% among Independents. Sanders leads among both men (54% to 36%) and women (67% to 25%). President - Sanders vs. Cruz 70% 60% 56% 60% 61% 50% 40% 30% 33% 28% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Sanders Cruz Other Undecided Finally, if the candidates were Sanders and Kasich, the least likely matchup at this point, 50% of likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Sanders, 44% would vote for Kasich, 4% would support another candidate and 2% are undecided. Sanders leads among Democrats 84% to 12%, while Kasich leads 85% to 7% among Republicans and 49% to 40% among Independents. Sanders leads among women (56% to 37%) while Kasich has the edge among men (51% to 44%). Kasich is within six points of Sanders after trailing by twenty-one points in January. President - Sanders vs. Kasich 60% 50% 40% 54% 33% 48% 40% 50% 44% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan '16 Feb '16 Apr '16 Sanders Kasich Other Undecided

6 Trump Third Party Run? There has been considerable speculation about whether Trump would run as an independent if he does not win the Republican nomination and the impact that would have on Republican chances of winning in November. In a hypothetical election matchup with Clinton as the Democratic nominee, Cruz as the Republican nominee and Trump as an Independent candidate 44% of likely New Hampshire voters say they would vote for Clinton, 22% would vote for Cruz, 19% would vote for Trump, 11% would vote for another candidate and 4% are undecided. While Clinton would receive the large majority of the Democratic vote (79%), the Republican vote would be split between Cruz (43%) and Trump (35%), and Independents would be split among the three candidates -- 30% for Cruz, 27% for Clinton, and 22% for Trump. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 22% 4% 30% 43% Hypothetical Trump/Clinton/Cruz Matchup 44% 79% 27% 5% 19% 35% 22% 22% 15% 16% 12% 5% Cruz Clinton Trump Other/Undecided NH Likely Voters (Apr '16) Democrat Independent Republican Temporary Ban On Muslims Entering United States In the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernadino, Trump called for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. Only 27% of Granite State likely voters support this idea (18% strongly, 9% somewhat), 64% oppose it (53% strongly, 11% somewhat), and 10% are neutral or don t know enough about this to say. This issue is divisive along partisan lines as a large majority of Democrats (88%) and half of Independents (53%) oppose the ban, while a slight majority of Republicans (56%) support it. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 27% 6% 28% 56% Support/Oppose Temporary Muslim Ban 64% 88% 53% Support Oppose Neutral/Don't Know NH Likely Voters (Apr '16) Democrat Independent Republican 34% 10% 6% 21% 10%

7 Today s Political Climate The contentious nomination struggles have led many to believe that the political environment in the U.S. is toxic. A large majority (84%) of Granite State likely voters like feel that today s political atmosphere is worse than it was 20 years ago, only 5% feel it is better, 8% say it is about the same and 3% don t know. This feeling is bi-partisan as large majorities of Republicans (91%), Independents (86%) and Democrats (78%) say the political atmosphere is worse than it was 20 years ago. 100% 80% Political Atmosphere Compared to 20 Years Ago 91% 84% 86% 78% 60% 40% 20% 0% 10% 5% 8% 8% 10% 2% 0% 5% 3% 4% 2% 3% Better Than 20 Years Ago Worse Than 20 Years Ago Stayed the Same Don't Know NH Likely Voters (Apr '16) Democrat Independent Republican With both parties in the midst of protracted nomination fights, many New Hampshire voters feel the two major parties are divided. Forty-seven percent of New Hampshire likely voters think the Democratic Party is united and 47% feel the party is divided. Independents (56%) and Republicans (58%) think the Democratic Party is divided, but only 36% of Democrats feel their party is divided. Nearly all Granite State likely voters (92%) believe the Republican Party is divided -- only 6% say they are united and 2% are unsure. Are the Republican/Democratic Parties United or Divided? - Likely Voters Democratic Party 47% 47% 6% Republican Party 6% 92% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% United Divided Don't Know Choice for Nominee With the possibility of a contested convention for one or both parties, New Hampshire residents who voted in the Primary were asked who they would like to win their party s nomination, regardless of whether that person was currently running for president. There is a degree of buyer s remorse among Republican Primary voters as 26% want Kasich to be the nominee, 22% want Trump, 9% want Cruz, 9% want Marco Rubio, 4% want Paul Ryan, 4% want Mitt Romney, 3% want Rand Paul, 2% want Carly Fiorina, and 2% want Jeb Bush. More than half of Democrats who voted in the Primary (54%) want Sanders to be the Democratic nominee, 29% want Clinton, while less than 5% prefer any other person.

8 Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and funded by WMUR-TV, Manchester, NH. Six hundred and twenty-one (621) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between April 7 and April 17, If a household included more than one adult, the adult who had the most recent birthday was selected to be interviewed. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.9 percent for the entire sample. Included were five hundred fifty-three (553) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE +/- 4.2%). These MSE s have not been adjusted for design effect. The design effect for the survey is 1.1%. The random sample used in the WMUR Granite State Poll was purchased from Marketing Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non-working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of time interviewers spend calling non-usable numbers. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. Additionally, data were weighted by respondent sex, age, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of nonsampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in crosstabulation tables as some respondents choose not to answer some questions. For more information about the methodology used in the WMUR Granite State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) or by at andrew.smith@unh.edu. Granite State Poll, April 2016 Demographics Sex N % Region N % Male % North Country 56 9% Female % Central/Lakes % Connecticut Valley 91 15% Age N % Mass Border % 18 to % Seacoast % 35 to % Manchester Area 92 15% 50 to % 65 and Over % Party Registration N % Democrat % Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg % High School or Less % Republican % Some College % College Graduate % Party Identification N % Post-Graduate % Democrat % Independent % Republican %

9 Granite State Poll, April Likely Presidential Election Voter Demographics Sex N % Region N % Male % North Country 53 10% Female % Central/Lakes 97 18% Connecticut Valley 86 16% Age N % Mass Border % 18 to % Seacoast 91 17% 35 to % Manchester Area 84 15% 50 to % 65 and Over 96 18% Party Registration N % Democrat % Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared/Not Reg % High School or Less 86 16% Republican % Some College % College Graduate % Party Identification N % Post-Graduate % Democrat % Independent 80 15% Republican %

10 Firmness of Presidential Vote I know that it is early, but have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the election for President in 2016 are you leaning toward someone or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide (N) Apr 16 40% 28% 32% (549) Feb 16 36% 31% 33% (620) Jan 16 36% 21% 43% (885) Sept 15 18% 21% 62% (743) July 15 16% 22% 62% (650) May 15 10% 18% 73% (625) Feb. 15 7% 13% 81% (768) US President Clinton vs. Trump If the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the candidates were Donald Trump, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump Hillary Clinton some other candidate. or would you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES July 15 Sept 15 Jan. 16 Feb 16 Apr 16 Trump 40% 42% 39% 39% 31% Clinton 50% 50% 48% 47% 50% Other 2% 3% 10% 10% 15% Don t know / undecided 7% 5% 3% 4% 4% (N=) (619) (692) (839) (578) (533) US President Sanders vs. Trump If the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the candidates were Donald Trump, the Republican, and Bernie Sanders, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump Bernie Sanders some other candidate. or would you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES Sept 15 Jan. 16 Feb 16 Apr 16 Trump 37% 34% 34% 31% Sanders 57% 57% 55% 58% Other 1% 6% 8% 8% Don t know / undecided 5% 3% 3% 2% (N=) (714) (869) (604) (537) US President Clinton vs. Cruz If the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the candidates were Ted Cruz, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, would you vote for Ted Cruz Hillary Clinton some other candidate. or would you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES May 15 Jan. 16 Feb 16 Apr 16 Cruz 45% 41% 35% 34% Clinton 46% 47% 46% 48% Other 2% 9% 16% 15% Don t know / undecided 7% 4% 4% 3% (N=) (598) (853) (580) (519)

11 US President Sanders vs. Cruz If the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the candidates were Ted Cruz, the Republican, and Bernie Sanders, the Democrat, would you vote for Ted Cruz Bernie Sanders some other candidate. or would you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES Jan. 16 Feb 16 Apr 16 Cruz 33% 28% 30% Sanders 56% 60% 61% Other 6% 10% 7% Don t know / undecided 4% 3% 2% (N=) (858) (595) (531) US President Clinton vs. Kasich If the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the candidates were John Kasich, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, would you vote for John Kasich Hillary Clinton some other candidate. or would you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES Jan. 16 Feb 16 Apr 16 Kasich 43% 47% 50% Clinton 43% 37% 36% Other 9% 11% 11% Don t know / undecided 5% 5% 4% (N=) (837) (590) (538) US President Sanders vs. Kasich If the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the candidates were John Kasich, the Republican, and Bernie Sanders, the Democrat, would you vote for John Kasich Bernie Sanders some other candidate. or would you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES Jan. 16 Feb 16 Apr 16 Kasich 33% 40% 44% Sanders 54% 48% 50% Other 6% 8% 4% Don t know / undecided 7% 4% 2% (N=) (853) (598) (541) US President Cruz vs. Clinton vs. Trump Suppose Donald Trump does not win the Republican nomination and runs as an independent in November. If the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the candidates were Ted Cruz, the Republican, Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump the Independent, would you vote for Ted Cruz Hillary Clinton Donald Trump some other candidate or would you skip this election? ROTATE CANDIDATES Apr 16 Cruz 22% Clinton 44% Trump 19% Other 11% Don t know / undecided 4% (N=) (539)

12 Presidential Candidate Favorability Ratings Likely Presidential Election Voters "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates who are running for President in As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her." "First, how about... ROTATE CANDIDATES Apr 16 Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know Net (N) Businessman Donald Trump 21% 4% 75% 0% -54% (553) Texas Senator Ted Cruz 21% 5% 72% 2% -51% (552) Ohio Governor John Kasich 53% 10% 31% 6% +22% (553) Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 38% 3% 58% 0% -20% (553) Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 57% 5% 36% 1% +21% (552) Today s Political Atmosphere Compared to 20 Years Ago Likely Voters Compared to 20 years ago, do you believe the political atmosphere in this country has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same? Apr 16 Better Than 20 Years Ago 5% Worse Than 20 Years Ago 84% Stayed the Same 8% Don t Know/Not Sure 3% (N) (552) State of Republican & Democratic Parties Likely Voters Would you describe the Republican Party today as united or divided? Would you describe the Democratic Party today as united or divided? ROTATE QUESTIONS Apr 16 Republican Party Democratic Party United 6% 47% Divided 92% 47% Don t Know/Not Sure 2% 6% (N) (552) (548) Support/Oppose Temporary Ban on Muslims Entering US Likely Voters In December, Donald Trump proposed a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. Based on what you have seen or read, do you support or oppose a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States or don t you know enough about this to say? Apr 16 Strongly Support 18% Somewhat Support 9% Neutral 2% Somewhat Oppose 11% Strongly Oppose 53% Don t Know/Not Sure 8% (N) (548)

13 Choice For Republican/Democratic Nominee 2016 Primary Voters Asked to 2016 NH Republican Primary Voters -- Thinking ahead to the upcoming Republican convention If you could choose anyone for the Republican nominee, whether they are currently running for president or not, who would you choose? Asked to 2016 NH Democratic Primary Voters -- Thinking ahead to the upcoming Democratic convention If you could choose anyone for the Democratic nominee, whether they are currently running for president or not, who would you choose? Apr 16 GOP Primary Voters Apr 16 DEM Primary Voters John Kasich 26% Bernie Sanders 54% Donald Trump 22% Hillary Clinton 29% Ted Cruz 9% Joe Biden 2% Marco Rubio 9% Elizabeth Warren 1% Paul Ryan 4% Bill Richardson 1% Mitt Romney 4% Cory Booker 1% Rand Paul 3% Other 7% Carly Fiorina 2% Don t Know 6% Jeb Bush 2% (N) (220) Other 11% Don t Know 7% (N) (237)

14 Decided 2016 Presidential Election Vote Def. Leaning Still Trying Decided Towards Someone To Decide (N) STATEWIDE 40% 28% 32% 549 Registered Democrat 49% 33% 18% 164 Registered Undeclared 32% 28% 40% 248 Registered Republican 41% 23% 36% 131 Democrat 46% 30% 23% 265 Independent 31% 26% 43% 79 Republican 34% 27% 39% 195 Liberal 46% 30% 23% 151 Moderate 32% 30% 38% 223 Conservative 40% 26% 34% 145 Union household 47% 32% 21% 73 Non-union 38% 27% 34% 472 Read Union Leader 39% 32% 29% 101 Read Boston Globe 45% 29% 26% 63 Read Local Newspapers 35% 31% 34% 177 Watch WMUR 39% 27% 34% 302 Listen to NHPR 42% 25% 33% 180 Listen to Conserv. Radio 40% 33% 26% to 34 45% 32% 24% to 49 33% 36% 30% to 64 41% 25% 35% and over 41% 18% 41% 94 Male 37% 32% 31% 263 Female 41% 25% 34% 286 High school or less 50% 26% 24% 86 Some college 38% 33% 28% 128 College graduate 36% 27% 38% 197 Post-graduate 39% 26% 35% 133 Attend services 1 or more/week 32% 24% 44% times a month 45% 28% 27% 56 Less often 34% 29% 37% 146 Never 46% 28% 27% 234 North Country 40% 34% 26% 53 Central / Lakes 42% 23% 34% 97 Connecticut Valley 38% 30% 32% 86 Mass Border 30% 32% 38% 140 Seacoast 48% 24% 28% 90 Manchester Area 44% 26% 30% 84 First Cong. Dist 46% 26% 29% 272 Second Cong. Dist 33% 31% 36% 276

15 US President Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton Likely Voters Trump Clinton Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 31% 50% 15% 4% 533 Registered Democrat 3% 81% 14% 2% 165 Registered Undeclared 29% 48% 18% 5% 237 Registered Republican 73% 11% 14% 3% 125 Democrat 4% 83% 12% 1% 261 Independent 33% 31% 22% 13% 74 Republican 68% 13% 16% 3% 188 Liberal 6% 81% 12% 1% 149 Moderate 23% 55% 17% 5% 215 Conservative 71% 11% 15% 2% 140 Definitely Decided 33% 51% 14% 1% 212 Leaning Toward Someone 32% 51% 15% 2% 152 Still Trying To Decide 28% 47% 17% 8% 165 Union household 28% 44% 22% 5% 70 Non-union 32% 51% 14% 3% 460 Read Union Leader 31% 45% 19% 5% 100 Read Boston Globe 11% 69% 15% 5% 63 Read Local Newspapers 24% 53% 18% 5% 172 Watch WMUR 33% 47% 16% 4% 294 Listen to NHPR 17% 63% 15% 4% 177 Listen to Conserv. Radio 80% 13% 5% 1% to 34 27% 58% 14% 1% to 49 31% 44% 22% 2% to 64 32% 48% 13% 6% and over 35% 54% 8% 3% 92 Male 40% 42% 13% 4% 254 Female 23% 57% 17% 3% 279 High school or less 45% 39% 14% 2% 82 Some college 36% 43% 16% 6% 126 College graduate 33% 50% 14% 3% 188 Post-graduate 15% 62% 19% 4% 132 Attend services 1 or more/week 43% 28% 23% 6% times a month 41% 46% 8% 4% 52 Less often 31% 52% 15% 2% 142 Never 24% 58% 15% 3% 231 North Country 27% 50% 22% 1% 53 Central / Lakes 23% 50% 23% 4% 95 Connecticut Valley 32% 48% 18% 2% 82 Mass Border 36% 51% 10% 4% 136 Seacoast 26% 57% 10% 7% 86 Manchester Area 40% 43% 15% 2% 81 First Cong. Dist 32% 52% 12% 5% 263 Second Cong. Dist 30% 48% 19% 3% 270

16 US President Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Likely Voters Trump Sanders Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 31% 58% 8% 2% 537 Registered Democrat 2% 93% 6% 0% 165 Registered Undeclared 29% 59% 8% 3% 243 Registered Republican 72% 11% 13% 4% 124 Democrat 4% 94% 2% 1% 264 Independent 31% 50% 12% 7% 76 Republican 69% 12% 16% 3% 188 Liberal 3% 96% 1% 0% 151 Moderate 22% 62% 12% 4% 217 Conservative 75% 13% 11% 1% 139 Definitely Decided 32% 62% 5% 1% 215 Leaning Toward Someone 30% 62% 7% 0% 152 Still Trying To Decide 29% 50% 14% 6% 166 Union household 32% 58% 10% 0% 69 Non-union 31% 58% 8% 3% 465 Read Union Leader 34% 52% 10% 4% 100 Read Boston Globe 14% 71% 15% 1% 61 Read Local Newspapers 26% 61% 11% 2% 173 Watch WMUR 35% 54% 9% 1% 296 Listen to NHPR 16% 75% 5% 4% 179 Listen to Conserv. Radio 86% 8% 5% 1% to 34 25% 70% 3% 1% to 49 31% 56% 12% 1% to 64 32% 54% 11% 4% and over 35% 53% 9% 3% 91 Male 38% 50% 9% 3% 259 Female 24% 66% 8% 2% 278 High school or less 42% 46% 9% 3% 83 Some college 35% 56% 8% 2% 126 College graduate 33% 58% 7% 2% 190 Post-graduate 17% 69% 11% 3% 133 Attend services 1 or more/week 47% 32% 19% 2% times a month 47% 47% 2% 4% 55 Less often 29% 61% 8% 2% 143 Never 21% 70% 7% 3% 232 North Country 21% 70% 7% 1% 51 Central / Lakes 22% 62% 13% 3% 95 Connecticut Valley 27% 62% 6% 5% 82 Mass Border 36% 52% 10% 2% 137 Seacoast 32% 61% 5% 2% 88 Manchester Area 40% 50% 8% 1% 84 First Cong. Dist 31% 57% 10% 2% 267 Second Cong. Dist 30% 60% 7% 2% 270

17 US President Ted Cruz vs. Hillary Clinton Likely Voters Cruz Clinton Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 34% 48% 15% 3% 519 Registered Democrat 3% 81% 13% 2% 158 Registered Undeclared 30% 47% 18% 5% 230 Registered Republican 77% 7% 13% 3% 126 Democrat 4% 83% 13% 1% 254 Independent 42% 32% 19% 7% 73 Republican 71% 7% 16% 5% 183 Liberal 4% 82% 14% 1% 145 Moderate 25% 53% 16% 5% 212 Conservative 76% 8% 14% 2% 136 Definitely Decided 28% 50% 19% 3% 202 Leaning Toward Someone 33% 54% 13% 0% 144 Still Trying To Decide 40% 40% 13% 7% 170 Union household 30% 45% 23% 2% 69 Non-union 34% 48% 14% 4% 447 Read Union Leader 34% 45% 15% 5% 98 Read Boston Globe 16% 67% 13% 4% 62 Read Local Newspapers 32% 52% 13% 3% 168 Watch WMUR 38% 45% 13% 3% 286 Listen to NHPR 16% 62% 18% 4% 174 Listen to Conserv. Radio 71% 9% 16% 4% to 34 27% 52% 17% 4% to 49 30% 48% 20% 2% to 64 37% 45% 12% 5% and over 40% 51% 6% 2% 88 Male 39% 42% 16% 4% 242 Female 29% 53% 15% 3% 277 High school or less 47% 35% 18% 0% 76 Some college 39% 43% 15% 3% 119 College graduate 37% 48% 12% 2% 190 Post-graduate 15% 60% 17% 7% 129 Attend services 1 or more/week 55% 22% 17% 5% times a month 42% 41% 13% 4% 53 Less often 38% 49% 9% 3% 137 Never 19% 60% 19% 2% 222 North Country 28% 40% 26% 6% 50 Central / Lakes 32% 45% 18% 4% 92 Connecticut Valley 30% 51% 17% 1% 77 Mass Border 37% 49% 11% 4% 134 Seacoast 28% 54% 12% 6% 89 Manchester Area 43% 44% 13% 0% 76 First Cong. Dist 36% 48% 12% 4% 262 Second Cong. Dist 31% 48% 18% 3% 257

18 US President Ted Cruz vs. Bernie Sanders Likely Voters Cruz Sanders Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 30% 61% 7% 2% 531 Registered Democrat 2% 95% 3% 0% 164 Registered Undeclared 24% 64% 9% 3% 236 Registered Republican 78% 11% 7% 4% 125 Democrat 2% 95% 3% 0% 262 Independent 25% 61% 12% 2% 76 Republican 73% 11% 11% 5% 184 Liberal 3% 96% 0% 0% 150 Moderate 23% 64% 10% 4% 215 Conservative 73% 18% 9% 1% 135 Definitely Decided 25% 65% 8% 2% 210 Leaning Toward Someone 27% 65% 7% 1% 149 Still Trying To Decide 40% 52% 6% 3% 167 Union household 26% 58% 15% 1% 71 Non-union 31% 61% 5% 2% 456 Read Union Leader 32% 55% 9% 4% 99 Read Boston Globe 20% 74% 6% 0% 61 Read Local Newspapers 30% 62% 6% 2% 170 Watch WMUR 34% 57% 8% 2% 296 Listen to NHPR 17% 75% 6% 1% 174 Listen to Conserv. Radio 76% 9% 12% 3% to 34 27% 67% 2% 4% to 49 24% 65% 11% 0% to 64 33% 57% 7% 3% and over 38% 54% 7% 2% 91 Male 36% 54% 8% 3% 250 Female 25% 67% 6% 2% 281 High school or less 34% 56% 9% 1% 82 Some college 36% 54% 8% 2% 125 College graduate 34% 60% 4% 2% 188 Post-graduate 16% 72% 9% 3% 130 Attend services 1 or more/week 57% 32% 11% 0% times a month 42% 44% 10% 3% 50 Less often 30% 64% 4% 3% 141 Never 16% 75% 7% 2% 227 North Country 21% 68% 6% 5% 52 Central / Lakes 31% 64% 4% 1% 94 Connecticut Valley 27% 67% 6% 0% 83 Mass Border 33% 54% 10% 3% 131 Seacoast 28% 64% 5% 3% 89 Manchester Area 38% 53% 8% 1% 81 First Cong. Dist 31% 58% 8% 3% 269 Second Cong. Dist 29% 63% 6% 1% 262

19 US President John Kasich vs. Hillary Clinton Likely Voters Kasich Clinton Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 50% 36% 11% 4% 538 Registered Democrat 15% 70% 10% 4% 162 Registered Undeclared 52% 32% 12% 4% 239 Registered Republican 88% 1% 9% 2% 132 Democrat 17% 69% 11% 4% 260 Independent 63% 17% 12% 7% 74 Republican 89% 1% 9% 1% 194 Liberal 15% 72% 10% 3% 149 Moderate 54% 32% 10% 4% 220 Conservative 80% 6% 11% 3% 142 Definitely Decided 41% 42% 15% 2% 205 Leaning Toward Someone 44% 41% 10% 5% 153 Still Trying To Decide 65% 25% 6% 4% 176 Union household 44% 40% 16% 1% 72 Non-union 51% 36% 10% 4% 462 Read Union Leader 54% 27% 12% 7% 101 Read Boston Globe 38% 44% 8% 11% 63 Read Local Newspapers 51% 37% 9% 3% 174 Watch WMUR 55% 34% 9% 3% 296 Listen to NHPR 39% 45% 12% 4% 178 Listen to Conserv. Radio 85% 4% 10% 1% to 34 43% 37% 14% 6% to 49 48% 38% 13% 1% to 64 55% 33% 8% 4% and over 52% 40% 5% 3% 93 Male 58% 27% 10% 5% 256 Female 42% 44% 11% 2% 282 High school or less 54% 27% 16% 3% 79 Some college 53% 29% 12% 6% 123 College graduate 56% 35% 7% 2% 197 Post-graduate 35% 49% 12% 4% 133 Attend services 1 or more/week 72% 16% 9% 3% times a month 68% 26% 4% 2% 55 Less often 54% 34% 8% 3% 144 Never 34% 48% 14% 4% 226 North Country 55% 29% 14% 1% 51 Central / Lakes 46% 38% 11% 5% 94 Connecticut Valley 49% 37% 13% 2% 79 Mass Border 52% 32% 11% 5% 140 Seacoast 44% 47% 8% 1% 91 Manchester Area 56% 31% 8% 6% 83 First Cong. Dist 50% 38% 9% 4% 271 Second Cong. Dist 50% 34% 12% 3% 266

20 US President John Kasich vs. Bernie Sanders Likely Voters Kasich Sanders Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 44% 50% 4% 2% 541 Registered Democrat 9% 86% 2% 3% 164 Registered Undeclared 46% 47% 5% 1% 242 Registered Republican 83% 9% 6% 1% 129 Democrat 12% 84% 2% 2% 263 Independent 49% 40% 8% 3% 78 Republican 85% 7% 6% 1% 190 Liberal 7% 92% 0% 0% 151 Moderate 47% 46% 4% 3% 217 Conservative 79% 13% 7% 1% 142 Definitely Decided 32% 60% 6% 2% 209 Leaning Toward Someone 39% 57% 3% 1% 152 Still Trying To Decide 62% 32% 3% 3% 176 Union household 35% 49% 15% 1% 73 Non-union 45% 50% 3% 2% 464 Read Union Leader 44% 45% 7% 4% 101 Read Boston Globe 35% 60% 1% 3% 63 Read Local Newspapers 40% 53% 5% 2% 172 Watch WMUR 48% 44% 5% 3% 298 Listen to NHPR 30% 65% 2% 2% 175 Listen to Conserv. Radio 78% 9% 11% 3% to 34 33% 67% 0% 0% to 49 41% 50% 8% 1% to 64 50% 42% 4% 3% and over 50% 43% 5% 2% 93 Male 51% 44% 4% 1% 256 Female 37% 56% 5% 2% 284 High school or less 46% 48% 6% 1% 81 Some college 46% 43% 8% 2% 127 College graduate 51% 46% 1% 1% 194 Post-graduate 30% 63% 5% 3% 134 Attend services 1 or more/week 68% 22% 7% 3% times a month 64% 31% 5% 0% 53 Less often 45% 50% 4% 2% 145 Never 28% 66% 4% 1% 229 North Country 39% 59% 1% 1% 50 Central / Lakes 37% 55% 4% 3% 95 Connecticut Valley 33% 59% 6% 2% 85 Mass Border 53% 40% 6% 1% 138 Seacoast 43% 53% 3% 1% 91 Manchester Area 51% 43% 3% 2% 82 First Cong. Dist 46% 47% 5% 2% 270 Second Cong. Dist 41% 53% 4% 2% 271

21 US President Donald Trump vs. Ted Cruz vs. Hillary Clinton Likely Voters Cruz Clinton Trump Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 22% 44% 19% 11% 4% 539 Registered Democrat 5% 77% 5% 12% 1% 164 Registered Undeclared 19% 43% 19% 14% 5% 241 Registered Republican 47% 6% 37% 4% 6% 129 Democrat 4% 79% 5% 11% 1% 261 Independent 30% 27% 22% 15% 7% 76 Republican 43% 5% 35% 10% 6% 193 Liberal 4% 80% 7% 10% 0% 150 Moderate 20% 48% 16% 11% 5% 219 Conservative 41% 6% 36% 12% 6% 142 Definitely Decided 13% 46% 24% 15% 3% 212 Leaning Toward Someone 20% 52% 19% 5% 3% 151 Still Trying To Decide 34% 36% 12% 12% 6% 173 Union household 12% 43% 24% 13% 8% 72 Non-union 23% 45% 18% 11% 3% 464 Read Union Leader 23% 42% 15% 14% 6% 100 Read Boston Globe 10% 63% 9% 15% 2% 63 Read Local Newspapers 27% 47% 14% 9% 3% 175 Watch WMUR 26% 41% 20% 9% 4% 301 Listen to NHPR 11% 58% 12% 17% 2% 179 Listen to Conserv. Radio 43% 7% 38% 7% 5% to 34 17% 46% 19% 15% 2% to 49 18% 44% 22% 14% 2% to 64 25% 43% 19% 8% 5% and over 27% 48% 14% 3% 7% 93 Male 22% 37% 25% 11% 5% 254 Female 22% 51% 13% 12% 3% 285 High school or less 25% 32% 30% 9% 3% 84 Some college 23% 40% 21% 9% 7% 125 College graduate 25% 42% 19% 12% 2% 195 Post-graduate 13% 59% 9% 14% 4% 130 Attend services 1 or more/week 40% 24% 21% 9% 6% times a month 28% 36% 22% 10% 5% 53 Less often 27% 43% 17% 9% 3% 144 Never 9% 56% 17% 14% 3% 229 North Country 20% 44% 16% 14% 7% 51 Central / Lakes 30% 46% 12% 10% 3% 94 Connecticut Valley 18% 46% 23% 10% 2% 84 Mass Border 22% 43% 23% 8% 3% 137 Seacoast 17% 51% 17% 9% 6% 91 Manchester Area 21% 37% 18% 20% 3% 81 First Cong. Dist 23% 44% 16% 12% 5% 269 Second Cong. Dist 21% 45% 21% 10% 3% 270

22 Favorability Rating Donald Trump Likely Voters Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 21% 4% 75% 0% 553 Registered Democrat 2% 1% 97% 0% 167 Registered Undeclared 22% 5% 72% 0% 249 Registered Republican 44% 6% 50% 0% 132 Democrat 3% 1% 95% 0% 267 Independent 25% 7% 68% 0% 80 Republican 43% 7% 49% 0% 196 Liberal 3% 0% 97% 0% 152 Moderate 14% 5% 81% 0% 224 Conservative 50% 6% 43% 1% 147 Definitely Decided 24% 2% 74% 0% 217 Leaning Toward Someone 24% 4% 72% 0% 154 Still Trying To Decide 15% 8% 77% 1% 177 Union household 27% 1% 72% 0% 73 Non-union 20% 5% 75% 0% 476 Read Union Leader 22% 7% 70% 1% 101 Read Boston Globe 11% 0% 88% 0% 63 Read Local Newspapers 15% 4% 81% 0% 179 Watch WMUR 22% 6% 72% 0% 305 Listen to NHPR 14% 2% 83% 0% 182 Listen to Conserv. Radio 59% 9% 31% 0% to 34 20% 1% 79% 0% to 49 19% 6% 74% 0% to 64 25% 3% 72% 0% and over 20% 8% 71% 1% 96 Male 27% 5% 68% 0% 265 Female 16% 3% 81% 0% 288 High school or less 34% 5% 61% 0% 86 Some college 27% 3% 70% 0% 129 College graduate 20% 5% 75% 0% 200 Post-graduate 10% 3% 87% 0% 134 Attend services 1 or more/week 28% 6% 65% 1% times a month 25% 0% 75% 0% 56 Less often 20% 5% 75% 0% 147 Never 18% 3% 79% 0% 236 North Country 14% 4% 81% 0% 53 Central / Lakes 10% 5% 85% 0% 97 Connecticut Valley 21% 7% 72% 0% 86 Mass Border 25% 5% 69% 0% 142 Seacoast 24% 0% 75% 0% 91 Manchester Area 28% 1% 70% 1% 84 First Cong. Dist 20% 4% 76% 0% 274 Second Cong. Dist 22% 4% 73% 0% 279

23 Favorability Rating Ted Cruz Likely Voters Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 21% 5% 72% 2% 552 Registered Democrat 7% 0% 90% 2% 167 Registered Undeclared 13% 7% 78% 2% 249 Registered Republican 54% 6% 38% 2% 131 Democrat 4% 1% 93% 2% 267 Independent 26% 8% 65% 2% 80 Republican 42% 8% 47% 3% 195 Liberal 2% 2% 94% 2% 152 Moderate 14% 6% 78% 2% 224 Conservative 49% 7% 43% 1% 146 Definitely Decided 20% 3% 77% 1% 217 Leaning Toward Someone 22% 4% 72% 2% 154 Still Trying To Decide 21% 8% 67% 4% 176 Union household 15% 7% 75% 3% 73 Non-union 22% 5% 72% 2% 475 Read Union Leader 22% 4% 71% 3% 101 Read Boston Globe 9% 4% 87% 0% 63 Read Local Newspapers 23% 4% 72% 1% 179 Watch WMUR 25% 4% 70% 1% 304 Listen to NHPR 11% 3% 84% 2% 182 Listen to Conserv. Radio 56% 4% 40% 0% to 34 20% 6% 71% 4% to 49 18% 3% 77% 1% to 64 24% 5% 71% 1% and over 23% 4% 71% 2% 96 Male 20% 5% 72% 2% 264 Female 21% 4% 72% 3% 288 High school or less 24% 8% 66% 2% 86 Some college 26% 8% 64% 2% 128 College graduate 23% 3% 73% 1% 200 Post-graduate 11% 2% 83% 3% 134 Attend services 1 or more/week 41% 10% 47% 1% times a month 32% 3% 65% 0% 56 Less often 23% 5% 71% 1% 146 Never 9% 3% 85% 3% 236 North Country 17% 8% 73% 3% 53 Central / Lakes 22% 5% 70% 3% 97 Connecticut Valley 18% 3% 76% 3% 86 Mass Border 20% 6% 74% 1% 141 Seacoast 19% 5% 74% 1% 91 Manchester Area 29% 3% 65% 2% 84 First Cong. Dist 21% 6% 71% 2% 274 Second Cong. Dist 21% 3% 73% 3% 278

24 Favorability Rating John Kasich Likely Voters Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 53% 10% 31% 6% 553 Registered Democrat 43% 13% 39% 6% 167 Registered Undeclared 57% 10% 26% 8% 249 Registered Republican 58% 9% 30% 3% 132 Democrat 47% 12% 34% 7% 267 Independent 53% 11% 31% 4% 80 Republican 59% 9% 28% 4% 196 Liberal 41% 15% 39% 5% 152 Moderate 62% 8% 24% 5% 224 Conservative 50% 10% 34% 6% 147 Definitely Decided 44% 11% 40% 5% 217 Leaning Toward Someone 50% 9% 34% 7% 154 Still Trying To Decide 65% 11% 17% 7% 177 Union household 43% 6% 46% 5% 73 Non-union 54% 11% 29% 6% 476 Read Union Leader 56% 8% 31% 5% 101 Read Boston Globe 62% 10% 25% 3% 63 Read Local Newspapers 57% 10% 30% 2% 179 Watch WMUR 56% 11% 29% 3% 305 Listen to NHPR 52% 11% 32% 5% 182 Listen to Conserv. Radio 43% 12% 42% 3% to 34 38% 10% 40% 12% to 49 50% 8% 36% 7% to 64 60% 9% 29% 1% and over 59% 18% 19% 3% 96 Male 52% 8% 33% 7% 265 Female 53% 12% 29% 6% 288 High school or less 50% 7% 35% 7% 86 Some college 50% 11% 32% 7% 129 College graduate 57% 11% 26% 6% 200 Post-graduate 49% 11% 36% 4% 134 Attend services 1 or more/week 65% 11% 22% 2% times a month 64% 8% 26% 2% 56 Less often 54% 11% 28% 7% 147 Never 44% 11% 38% 8% 236 North Country 57% 8% 28% 7% 53 Central / Lakes 43% 11% 35% 11% 97 Connecticut Valley 47% 16% 33% 4% 86 Mass Border 59% 7% 30% 4% 142 Seacoast 52% 12% 30% 6% 91 Manchester Area 56% 9% 29% 6% 84 First Cong. Dist 55% 9% 29% 7% 274 Second Cong. Dist 50% 11% 33% 6% 279

25 Favorability Rating Hillary Clinton Likely Voters Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 38% 3% 58% 0% 553 Registered Democrat 66% 3% 30% 1% 167 Registered Undeclared 37% 5% 58% 0% 249 Registered Republican 6% 1% 92% 0% 132 Democrat 67% 5% 28% 0% 267 Independent 25% 3% 70% 2% 80 Republican 5% 2% 93% 0% 196 Liberal 69% 5% 26% 0% 152 Moderate 39% 4% 56% 0% 224 Conservative 7% 2% 90% 1% 147 Definitely Decided 37% 2% 61% 0% 217 Leaning Toward Someone 44% 3% 52% 0% 154 Still Trying To Decide 35% 4% 59% 1% 177 Union household 35% 2% 64% 0% 73 Non-union 39% 4% 57% 1% 476 Read Union Leader 34% 2% 64% 0% 101 Read Boston Globe 51% 5% 41% 3% 63 Read Local Newspapers 40% 4% 56% 0% 179 Watch WMUR 38% 4% 58% 1% 305 Listen to NHPR 52% 4% 44% 0% 182 Listen to Conserv. Radio 5% 0% 95% 0% to 34 39% 3% 58% 0% to 49 37% 3% 60% 0% to 64 37% 3% 59% 1% and over 43% 5% 53% 0% 96 Male 29% 3% 67% 1% 265 Female 47% 4% 49% 0% 288 High school or less 26% 4% 71% 0% 86 Some college 32% 4% 64% 0% 129 College graduate 37% 4% 58% 1% 200 Post-graduate 54% 2% 44% 0% 134 Attend services 1 or more/week 23% 2% 75% 0% times a month 31% 4% 65% 0% 56 Less often 40% 2% 58% 0% 147 Never 45% 5% 49% 1% 236 North Country 27% 8% 63% 1% 53 Central / Lakes 39% 5% 56% 0% 97 Connecticut Valley 34% 1% 65% 0% 86 Mass Border 41% 4% 54% 1% 142 Seacoast 46% 1% 53% 0% 91 Manchester Area 35% 4% 61% 0% 84 First Cong. Dist 39% 3% 58% 1% 274 Second Cong. Dist 38% 4% 58% 0% 279

26 Favorability Rating Bernie Sanders Likely Voters Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 57% 5% 36% 1% 552 Registered Democrat 91% 3% 6% 1% 167 Registered Undeclared 56% 6% 36% 1% 249 Registered Republican 16% 7% 76% 1% 131 Democrat 87% 3% 9% 0% 267 Independent 52% 6% 39% 3% 80 Republican 19% 7% 73% 1% 195 Liberal 92% 5% 4% 0% 152 Moderate 60% 6% 33% 1% 224 Conservative 18% 4% 78% 0% 146 Definitely Decided 61% 6% 33% 1% 217 Leaning Toward Someone 62% 2% 35% 1% 154 Still Trying To Decide 49% 8% 42% 2% 176 Union household 56% 5% 39% 0% 73 Non-union 57% 5% 36% 1% 475 Read Union Leader 53% 5% 41% 1% 101 Read Boston Globe 71% 2% 27% 0% 63 Read Local Newspapers 59% 8% 33% 0% 179 Watch WMUR 53% 7% 38% 2% 304 Listen to NHPR 71% 5% 23% 0% 182 Listen to Conserv. Radio 12% 11% 77% 0% to 34 67% 4% 29% 0% to 49 62% 3% 33% 1% to 64 50% 5% 45% 1% and over 50% 11% 36% 2% 96 Male 50% 4% 45% 1% 264 Female 64% 6% 29% 1% 288 High school or less 47% 7% 44% 3% 86 Some college 52% 9% 38% 1% 128 College graduate 59% 2% 40% 0% 200 Post-graduate 68% 6% 25% 1% 134 Attend services 1 or more/week 35% 4% 58% 3% times a month 41% 5% 55% 0% 56 Less often 59% 7% 33% 1% 146 Never 69% 5% 25% 0% 236 North Country 54% 10% 35% 0% 53 Central / Lakes 65% 6% 28% 0% 97 Connecticut Valley 65% 3% 32% 0% 86 Mass Border 50% 3% 43% 4% 141 Seacoast 61% 8% 31% 0% 91 Manchester Area 49% 5% 46% 0% 84 First Cong. Dist 56% 5% 38% 0% 274 Second Cong. Dist 59% 5% 35% 2% 278

27 Support/Oppose Temporary Ban of Muslims Entering US Likely Voters Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Support Support Neutral Oppose Oppose Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 18% 9% 2% 11% 53% 8% 548 Registered Democrat 3% 0% 2% 9% 82% 5% 167 Registered Undeclared 16% 9% 2% 13% 50% 10% 247 Registered Republican 41% 21% 2% 9% 20% 7% 130 Democrat 3% 3% 2% 11% 77% 4% 267 Independent 23% 5% 2% 9% 44% 19% 79 Republican 37% 19% 1% 11% 23% 9% 194 Liberal 2% 2% 2% 9% 83% 2% 152 Moderate 10% 9% 1% 11% 60% 9% 224 Conservative 47% 16% 2% 10% 15% 10% 144 Definitely Decided 23% 6% 1% 9% 56% 4% 217 Leaning Toward Someone 20% 9% 3% 5% 57% 6% 153 Still Trying To Decide 10% 13% 1% 16% 45% 15% 174 Union household 26% 4% 4% 5% 52% 9% 73 Non-union 17% 9% 1% 12% 53% 8% 473 Read Union Leader 19% 11% 3% 18% 41% 7% 100 Read Boston Globe 13% 3% 1% 16% 62% 5% 63 Read Local Newspapers 16% 8% 0% 12% 56% 9% 178 Watch WMUR 20% 11% 2% 13% 45% 9% 302 Listen to NHPR 10% 5% 2% 10% 68% 5% 180 Listen to Conserv. Radio 54% 17% 0% 10% 13% 7% to 34 15% 6% 0% 6% 70% 4% to 49 16% 9% 1% 10% 53% 10% to 64 21% 8% 3% 13% 45% 10% and over 19% 13% 3% 12% 45% 8% 96 Male 23% 9% 1% 10% 52% 5% 262 Female 14% 8% 2% 12% 53% 11% 287 High school or less 31% 12% 3% 9% 32% 12% 86 Some college 25% 10% 2% 14% 42% 7% 129 College graduate 14% 9% 2% 9% 57% 9% 197 Post-graduate 10% 5% 1% 10% 70% 4% 133 Attend services 1 or more/week 26% 11% 2% 16% 32% 13% times a month 28% 8% 2% 9% 52% 2% 56 Less often 18% 11% 1% 9% 51% 10% 144 Never 13% 6% 2% 10% 63% 6% 236 North Country 18% 9% 7% 13% 47% 6% 52 Central / Lakes 14% 7% 1% 10% 62% 5% 97 Connecticut Valley 13% 9% 0% 12% 54% 12% 85 Mass Border 24% 12% 1% 11% 45% 8% 142 Seacoast 20% 6% 3% 3% 62% 6% 89 Manchester Area 18% 9% 1% 16% 46% 10% 84 First Cong. Dist 19% 9% 2% 10% 54% 6% 271 Second Cong. Dist 17% 9% 1% 11% 51% 10% 277

28 Political Atmosphere Compared to 20 Years Ago Likely Voters Better Than Worse Than Stayed the 20 Years Ago 20 Years Ago Same Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 5% 84% 8% 3% 552 Registered Democrat 9% 79% 7% 5% 167 Registered Undeclared 5% 82% 10% 3% 248 Registered Republican 1% 93% 4% 1% 131 Democrat 10% 78% 8% 4% 267 Independent 2% 86% 10% 2% 79 Republican 0% 91% 5% 3% 196 Liberal 11% 75% 10% 4% 152 Moderate 3% 87% 8% 2% 224 Conservative 2% 88% 5% 5% 145 Definitely Decided 7% 85% 7% 2% 217 Leaning Toward Someone 7% 83% 6% 4% 154 Still Trying To Decide 1% 84% 10% 4% 177 Union household 3% 89% 6% 2% 73 Non-union 5% 83% 8% 4% 475 Read Union Leader 5% 88% 5% 2% 100 Read Boston Globe 1% 89% 6% 3% 63 Read Local Newspapers 4% 86% 7% 3% 178 Watch WMUR 4% 88% 7% 1% 304 Listen to NHPR 3% 84% 9% 4% 182 Listen to Conserv. Radio 5% 90% 5% 0% to 34 8% 72% 9% 11% to 49 3% 87% 8% 2% to 64 4% 88% 7% 1% and over 6% 85% 8% 1% 95 Male 2% 87% 7% 3% 264 Female 8% 81% 8% 3% 288 High school or less 9% 80% 7% 4% 86 Some college 3% 92% 4% 0% 129 College graduate 3% 82% 10% 4% 199 Post-graduate 7% 81% 7% 5% 133 Attend services 1 or more/week 2% 93% 5% 0% times a month 6% 81% 10% 3% 56 Less often 4% 86% 7% 4% 146 Never 7% 80% 9% 5% 236 North Country 10% 82% 6% 1% 53 Central / Lakes 6% 85% 3% 6% 97 Connecticut Valley 10% 80% 8% 2% 85 Mass Border 3% 83% 11% 4% 142 Seacoast 1% 89% 6% 3% 91 Manchester Area 4% 84% 9% 3% 84 First Cong. Dist 3% 88% 7% 2% 274 Second Cong. Dist 7% 80% 8% 5% 278

29 Is The Republican Party United or Divided? Likely Voters United Divided Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 6% 92% 2% 552 Registered Democrat 6% 93% 0% 167 Registered Undeclared 6% 90% 5% 249 Registered Republican 5% 94% 1% 132 Democrat 7% 91% 2% 265 Independent 3% 92% 5% 80 Republican 5% 93% 2% 196 Liberal 8% 90% 2% 150 Moderate 5% 94% 2% 224 Conservative 6% 91% 3% 147 Definitely Decided 5% 92% 3% 217 Leaning Toward Someone 6% 94% 1% 154 Still Trying To Decide 7% 90% 3% 176 Union household 4% 96% 0% 73 Non-union 6% 91% 3% 475 Read Union Leader 8% 90% 1% 101 Read Boston Globe 0% 100% 0% 63 Read Local Newspapers 3% 96% 1% 179 Watch WMUR 6% 92% 2% 305 Listen to NHPR 8% 92% 1% 182 Listen to Conserv. Radio 5% 93% 1% to 34 8% 89% 3% to 49 4% 94% 2% to 64 7% 91% 2% and over 4% 94% 3% 96 Male 5% 93% 2% 265 Female 7% 90% 3% 286 High school or less 11% 85% 4% 86 Some college 4% 95% 1% 129 College graduate 7% 91% 3% 200 Post-graduate 4% 94% 2% 132 Attend services 1 or more/week 9% 87% 4% times a month 9% 91% 0% 56 Less often 4% 92% 4% 147 Never 5% 94% 1% 234 North Country 6% 94% 0% 53 Central / Lakes 6% 91% 3% 95 Connecticut Valley 1% 95% 3% 86 Mass Border 7% 89% 4% 142 Seacoast 6% 91% 2% 91 Manchester Area 9% 91% 0% 84 First Cong. Dist 7% 91% 2% 274 Second Cong. Dist 5% 92% 3% 277

30 Is The Democratic Party United or Divided? Likely Voters United Divided Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 47% 47% 6% 548 Registered Democrat 62% 33% 5% 167 Registered Undeclared 46% 49% 5% 245 Registered Republican 32% 60% 7% 132 Democrat 60% 36% 4% 264 Independent 36% 56% 8% 79 Republican 34% 58% 7% 196 Liberal 59% 37% 4% 148 Moderate 48% 48% 4% 223 Conservative 36% 55% 9% 146 Definitely Decided 48% 48% 4% 215 Leaning Toward Someone 47% 49% 4% 154 Still Trying To Decide 47% 44% 9% 174 Union household 40% 58% 2% 73 Non-union 49% 45% 6% 471 Read Union Leader 41% 50% 9% 101 Read Boston Globe 58% 36% 7% 63 Read Local Newspapers 49% 49% 1% 177 Watch WMUR 47% 45% 7% 304 Listen to NHPR 50% 46% 4% 180 Listen to Conserv. Radio 32% 59% 8% to 34 39% 56% 4% to 49 48% 49% 3% to 64 52% 41% 7% and over 52% 42% 7% 96 Male 44% 49% 7% 265 Female 51% 45% 4% 283 High school or less 42% 51% 7% 84 Some college 45% 47% 9% 127 College graduate 47% 47% 5% 199 Post-graduate 54% 44% 2% 132 Attend services 1 or more/week 47% 45% 8% times a month 49% 49% 2% 56 Less often 50% 47% 3% 146 Never 45% 48% 7% 232 North Country 39% 53% 8% 53 Central / Lakes 51% 45% 4% 92 Connecticut Valley 41% 50% 8% 85 Mass Border 46% 49% 5% 142 Seacoast 56% 40% 4% 91 Manchester Area 48% 45% 7% 84 First Cong. Dist 50% 43% 7% 274 Second Cong. Dist 45% 51% 4% 273

31 Choice For Republican Nominee NH Republican Primary Voters John Donald Ted Marco Paul Mitt Rand Carly Jeb Don t Kasich Trump Cruz Rubio Ryan Romney Paul Fiorina Bush Other Know (N) STATEWIDE 26% 22% 9% 9% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 11% 7% 237 Registered Democrat 81% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2 Registered Undeclared 36% 21% 6% 9% 1% 3% 5% 2% 1% 9% 8% 108 Registered Republican 17% 24% 13% 8% 7% 6% 1% 3% 3% 13% 6% 126 Democrat 51% 13% 0% 6% 3% 6% 0% 0% 3% 5% 12% 24 Independent 39% 14% 12% 2% 3% 7% 7% 0% 0% 13% 3% 35 Republican 20% 25% 10% 11% 4% 4% 2% 3% 2% 11% 8% 126 Liberal 39% 16% 0% 3% 5% 10% 0% 0% 0% 3% 22% 13 Moderate 43% 15% 5% 6% 0% 4% 5% 2% 4% 11% 5% 93 Conservative 14% 29% 15% 12% 7% 5% 2% 1% 0% 10% 6% 121 Definitely Decided 15% 40% 11% 2% 0% 9% 3% 3% 0% 10% 6% 76 Leaning Toward Someone 22% 25% 17% 14% 0% 6% 2% 1% 1% 7% 5% 56 Still Trying To Decide 34% 7% 3% 12% 10% 1% 2% 3% 3% 14% 11% 89 Union household 19% 32% 11% 6% 3% 8% 4% 6% 4% 7% 0% 33 Non-union 27% 21% 9% 9% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 12% 8% 202 Read Union Leader 32% 23% 9% 9% 5% 2% 3% 4% 0% 7% 6% 52 Read Boston Globe 39% 21% 0% 12% 6% 3% 0% 0% 0% 6% 13% 17 Read Local Newspapers 31% 15% 6% 13% 4% 9% 1% 2% 4% 9% 5% 70 Watch WMUR 28% 22% 10% 6% 5% 5% 2% 0% 2% 12% 7% 140 Listen to NHPR 36% 26% 7% 5% 3% 3% 2% 0% 2% 10% 5% 57 Listen to Conserv. Radio 6% 37% 24% 9% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0% 11% 3% to 34 33% 22% 5% 10% 4% 13% 0% 0% 0% 7% 6% to 49 17% 22% 9% 3% 4% 0% 8% 7% 0% 16% 14% to 64 28% 27% 12% 9% 2% 5% 1% 1% 2% 12% 3% and over 31% 18% 11% 11% 9% 2% 1% 0% 4% 7% 6% 46 Male 27% 26% 9% 3% 4% 5% 4% 1% 0% 12% 8% 136 Female 25% 17% 10% 17% 4% 3% 0% 5% 4% 10% 7% 101 High school or less 23% 41% 15% 5% 2% 2% 0% 0% 3% 5% 5% 41 Some college 20% 20% 15% 7% 3% 7% 0% 1% 1% 14% 11% 54 College graduate 30% 19% 6% 12% 5% 5% 1% 5% 1% 10% 6% 97 Post-graduate 28% 15% 4% 7% 4% 3% 11% 1% 4% 15% 8% 44 Attend services 1 or more/week 20% 20% 9% 14% 4% 2% 0% 5% 5% 15% 6% times a month 24% 29% 6% 6% 2% 8% 3% 0% 0% 11% 10% 38 Less often 27% 18% 16% 7% 4% 3% 6% 0% 2% 10% 7% 61 Never 33% 26% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2% 3% 0% 7% 7% 66 North Country 43% 24% 19% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 6% 4% 0% 16 Central / Lakes 30% 12% 8% 14% 4% 2% 9% 3% 2% 12% 3% 35 Connecticut Valley 19% 11% 6% 12% 10% 4% 0% 10% 0% 14% 14% 30 Mass Border 30% 26% 10% 3% 2% 4% 2% 0% 2% 14% 7% 75 Seacoast 20% 26% 7% 11% 3% 7% 0% 0% 4% 12% 9% 34 Manchester Area 20% 27% 9% 13% 3% 6% 3% 4% 0% 6% 8% 48 First Cong. Dist 27% 22% 7% 8% 4% 7% 5% 2% 1% 10% 6% 128 Second Cong. Dist 25% 22% 12% 9% 3% 2% 0% 4% 2% 12% 9% 109