THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL

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1 THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL By: Eric W Rademacher, PhD October 24, 2012 Kimberly Downing, PhD Institute for Policy Research (513) INTERNAL MEMO: NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION Ohio Newspaper Poll Methodology These findings are based on the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati between October 18 and October 23, 2012 A random sample of 1015 likely voters from throughout the state was interviewed by landline and cellular telephone In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 31 percent In addition to sampling error, there are other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects that can introduce error or bias Reported percentages may not total to 100% due to rounding Results reported for subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population Caution should be used in interpreting the findings of specific subgroups For example, margins of error for subgroup estimates with low numbers of interviews (eg, s, residents of Southeast Ohio) may be substantially larger than those for the overall population (s +/- 10%; Southeast Ohio +/- 12%) The final dataset is comprised of interviews conducted by both landline and cellular telephone The data have been weighted to correct for potential sampling biases on sex of respondent and region of residence, using voting data published by the US Census and the Ohio Secretary of State This weighting strategy is similar to that used in election projections for The Ohio Poll The Ohio Newspaper Poll does not use self-identified partisanship in its weighting methodology Overall, this Poll found a higher distribution of self-identified Democrats (47%) than s (44%) in the likely voter pool; the remaining 10 percent identified themselves as s

2 2012 Presidential Election Enthusiasm Very Enthusiastic Somewhat Enthusiastic Not so / Not Enthusiastic ROMNEY AND RYAN OBAMA AND BIDEN OTHER DON'T KNOW 49% 49% 1% 1% % 66% 1% 81 49% 46% 2% 2% % 49% 0% 1% % 46% 1% 326 1% 98% 1% 89 55% 43% 1% 1% % 43% 1% 1% % 55% 0% 1% % 75% 44 48% 51% 0% 0% % 49% 1% 2% % 45% 1% 2% 363 6% 93% 1% % 46% 6% 4% 82 94% 5% 0% 1% % 54% 0% 1% % 46% 1% % 51% 1% 1% % 45% 2% 2% 56 54% 43% 0% 2% % 45% 0% % 57% 0% 1% % 48% 3% 4% 187 Page 1 of 18

3 2012 Senate Election Enthusiasm Very Enthusiastic Somewhat Enthusiastic Not so / Not Enthusiastic MANDEL BROWN OTHER DON'T KNOW 47% 51% 1% 2% % 56% 4% 83 47% 49% 2% 2% % 52% 0% 2% % 50% 1% 0% 316 6% 93% 1% 87 52% 46% 1% 1% % 44% 1% 2% % 57% 2% % 61% 44 44% 53% 1% 2% % 48% 1% 1% % 50% 1% 1% 361 8% 91% 0% 0% % 54% 8% 82 90% 9% 1% 1% % 54% 1% 2% % 50% 1% % 52% 1% 2% % 57% 57 53% 44% 0% 2% % 45% 0% 1% % 60% 1% 1% % 53% 1% 4% 183 Page 2 of 18

4 Question 5: Would you say you are very enthusiastic about this year s election, somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? VERY ENTHUSIASTIC SOMEWHAT ENTHUSIASTIC NOT SO ENTHUSIASTIC NOT ENTHUSIASTIC AT ALL 50% 28% 13% 8% % 41% 15% 2% 85 37% 38% 15% 10% % 25% 13% 11% % 24% 11% 6% % 28% 5% 3% 92 49% 29% 13% 9% % 27% 13% 9% % 29% 13% 8% % 25% 17% 12% 45 49% 30% 14% 7% % 29% 15% 8% % 28% 10% 9% % 33% 11% 8% % 24% 37% 16% 94 58% 25% 11% 7% % 27% 12% 9% % 33% 14% 10% % 30% 10% 6% % 28% 17% 13% 62 50% 28% 14% 7% 250 Page 3 of 18

5 Question 8: Which of the following describes your vote for Romney? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR ROMNEY] * * * * * DON'T KNOW 60% 23% 17% 0% % 34% 11% 27 52% 25% 23% 93 57% 25% 18% % 17% 15% 1% % 1 60% 23% 17% 0% % 24% 20% % 22% 14% 0% % 34% 20% 11 58% 21% 21% 1% % 23% 15% % 23% 16% % 40% 23% 4% 28 39% 33% 28% 35 63% 21% 16% % 23% 18% % 18% 20% 2% 63 64% 26% 11% 78 59% 7% 34% 29 59% 26% 15% 132 Page 4 of 18

6 Question 9: Which of the following describes your vote for Obama? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR OBAMA] * * * * DON'T KNOW 63% 22% 14% 0% % 27% 10% 54 58% 27% 15% 89 65% 19% 16% % 23% 12% 1% % 7% 8% 87 58% 26% 15% 0% % 25% 18% 1% % 21% 11% % 22% 8% 33 61% 20% 19% 1% % 24% 14% % 23% 10% % 20% 11% 0% % 37% 29% 38 22% 39% 39% 19 60% 24% 17% % 21% 19% 55 78% 11% 10% 1% 84 61% 27% 12% 25 61% 29% 10% 105 Page 5 of 18

7 Question 12: Which of the following describes your vote for Mandel? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR MANDEL] * * * * * * DON'T KNOW 36% 34% 30% 0% % 56% 20% 32 30% 36% 33% 1% 87 34% 37% 30% % 25% 30% % 42% 5 36% 34% 30% 0% % 34% 33% % 33% 27% 1% % 42% 16% 17 43% 33% 23% 1% % 36% 33% 1% % 32% 34% % 55% 22% 36 27% 44% 29% 31 37% 31% 31% 0% % 31% 34% % 44% 24% 58 34% 37% 29% 72 44% 32% 24% 24 38% 31% 30% 1% 127 Page 6 of 18

8 Question 13: Which of the following describes your vote for Brown? [ASKED ONLY OF THOSE VOTING FOR BROWN] * * * * DON'T KNOW 51% 27% 21% 1% % 42% 23% 47 37% 33% 29% 1% 90 56% 25% 18% % 22% 19% 2% % 27% 11% 2% 79 50% 26% 23% 1% % 26% 22% 0% % 27% 21% 1% % 28% 35% 26 54% 23% 22% 2% % 32% 19% % 27% 20% 1% % 25% 19% 1% % 43% 23% 44 25% 35% 40% 36 58% 23% 19% % 33% 22% 2% 59 46% 27% 25% 2% 83 56% 26% 18% 33 44% 31% 24% 1% 107 Page 7 of 18

9 Question 14: How much, if anything, have you heard about State Issue 2? A LOT A LITTLE NOTHING AT ALL DON'T KNOW 21% 54% 24% 0% % 45% 42% 86 13% 49% 39% % 53% 24% 1% % 61% 12% 0% % 57% 29% 1% 93 22% 54% 23% 0% % 52% 23% % 56% 25% 1% 530 6% 60% 34% 45 18% 55% 27% 1% % 54% 28% 0% % 54% 19% % 54% 25% 0% % 52% 30% 96 22% 56% 22% 0% % 56% 24% % 55% 20% 2% % 52% 22% 1% % 57% 29% 62 21% 52% 27% 252 Page 8 of 18

10 Question 15: If the election were held today would you vote 'Yes' or 'No' on the constitutional amendment (State Issue 2)? Party Identification Democrat Heard About State Issue 2 A lot A little Nothing YES NO NEITHER / NOT SURE / DON'T KNOW 28% 53% 19% % 49% 22% 82 32% 41% 27% % 56% 16% % 58% 17% % 44% 24% 88 28% 54% 18% % 58% 13% % 48% 25% % 56% 26% 41 26% 53% 20% % 55% 19% % 51% 17% % 39% 20% % 49% 18% 91 13% 69% 17% % 54% 20% % 58% 14% % 46% 19% % 48% 21% 58 27% 54% 19% % 52% 5% % 57% 19% % 45% 33% 227 Page 9 of 18

11 Question 16a: Who do you think would do the best job handling foreign policy, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? ROMNEY OBAMA EQUAL / NEITHER DON'T KNOW 46% 50% 3% 1% % 65% 2% 1% 85 48% 48% 3% 1% % 51% 4% 0% % 46% 3% 1% 338 2% 97% 1% 93 51% 45% 4% 1% % 46% 3% 0% % 54% 4% 1% % 71% 5% 45 43% 51% 4% 2% % 49% 3% 1% % 47% 3% 1% 375 7% 89% 2% 1% % 51% 12% 1% 94 89% 8% 3% 1% % 52% 4% 1% % 47% 5% 3% % 51% 2% % 48% 5% 2% 62 48% 48% 3% 1% 251 Page 10 of 18

12 Question 16b: Who do you think would do the best job handling the economy, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? ROMNEY OBAMA EQUAL / NEITHER DON'T KNOW 51% 45% 3% 1% % 57% 3% 1% 85 53% 43% 4% 0% % 46% 2% 1% % 42% 4% 1% 337 5% 93% 2% 1% 93 56% 40% 3% 1% % 39% 3% 1% % 51% 4% 1% % 65% 7% 45 48% 48% 4% 1% % 45% 4% 1% % 41% 2% 1% 374 9% 87% 4% 0% % 36% 9% 2% 95 94% 4% 2% 0% % 49% 4% 0% % 43% 3% 1% % 47% 2% 1% % 45% 3% 62 56% 39% 4% 1% 252 Page 11 of 18

13 DON'T KNOW 29% 21% 48% 1% % 14% 60% 1% 85 24% 22% 54% 1% % 21% 48% 1% % 23% 44% 3% % 1% 47% 1% 93 26% 23% 49% 2% % 26% 45% 1% % 16% 51% 2% % 7% 57% 2% 45 28% 18% 51% 4% % 23% 46% 1% % 23% 47% % 3% 42% 1% % 22% 49% 96 3% 39% 57% 1% % 21% 44% 2% % 17% 51% 2% % 19% 50% 1% % 27% 50% 2% 62 25% 22% 52% 1% 252 Page 12 of 18

14 Question 18: Would you say the presidential debates will make you more likely to vote for Romney, Obama, or not make a difference? DON'T KNOW 23% 14% 62% 2% % 28% 54% 2% 86 24% 12% 63% 2% % 12% 65% 1% % 13% 60% 2% 335 2% 28% 69% 2% 93 25% 12% 61% 1% % 11% 62% 1% % 17% 62% 2% % 32% 47% 2% 45 21% 14% 63% 3% % 14% 62% 1% % 11% 62% 1% 374 3% 26% 68% 2% % 11% 65% 5% 95 44% 1% 55% 0% % 17% 62% 1% % 13% 59% 4% % 15% 58% 1% % 10% 75% 2% 61 26% 11% 61% 2% 251 Page 13 of 18

15 Question 19: Would you say Romney's 47% comments will make you more likely to vote for Romney, Obama, or not make a difference? DON'T KNOW 14% 32% 54% 0% % 36% 48% 86 12% 32% 55% 1% % 31% 55% 0% % 31% 53% 0% % 38% 1% 93 16% 28% 55% 0% % 28% 54% 1% % 35% 54% 0% % 32% 53% 45 15% 31% 53% 0% % 33% 52% 0% % 31% 55% 1% 376 2% 59% 39% 457 8% 33% 58% 96 28% 3% 68% 1% % 33% 52% 1% % 29% 53% 2% % 34% 55% % 33% 51% 62 14% 30% 57% 252 Page 14 of 18

16 Question 20: We often hear from candidates that voters should be scared if their opponent wins the election Which of the following best describes you? DON'T KNOW 29% 29% 39% 3% 0% % 28% 57% 1% 86 25% 24% 47% 4% % 30% 37% 3% 1% % 30% 31% 2% 0% 336 1% 63% 34% 2% 93 33% 25% 39% 3% 0% % 23% 44% 2% % 35% 34% 4% 1% % 48% 28% 45 28% 31% 38% 2% 0% % 31% 34% 3% 0% % 24% 43% 3% 0% 376 2% 57% 39% 2% 0% % 18% 54% 7% 96 60% 2% 35% 2% 0% % 34% 35% 3% 0% % 27% 39% 5% 1% % 28% 42% 3% % 27% 48% 2% 2% 61 36% 22% 40% 2% 252 Page 15 of 18

17 Question 21: Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Kasich is handling his job as governor? 23% 28% 5% 9% 3% 13% 18% % 34% 13% 13% 2% 13% 8% 82 19% 33% 5% 10% 3% 16% 15% % 29% 5% 7% 4% 13% 21% % 24% 4% 9% 3% 13% 17% 328 1% 23% 4% 16% 5% 16% 35% 91 26% 29% 6% 8% 3% 13% 16% % 29% 5% 6% 3% 12% 17% % 28% 6% 11% 4% 15% 19% % 25% 5% 16% 4% 10% 18% 44 20% 29% 5% 11% 3% 14% 18% % 28% 6% 9% 5% 14% 15% % 28% 5% 6% 2% 12% 20% 369 4% 25% 5% 11% 4% 20% 31% % 30% 6% 8% 2% 15% 14% 94 43% 32% 6% 7% 2% 6% 4% % 26% 5% 10% 4% 13% 19% % 39% 10% 5% 3% 13% 15% % 32% 4% 4% 2% 12% 18% % 20% 6% 11% 3% 15% 26% 62 26% 27% 4% 13% 3% 14% 14% 245 Page 16 of 18

18 Question 22: Would you say Kasich deserves a second term as governor, or not? DON'T KNOW 52% 37% 11% % 36% 15% 78 51% 36% 13% % 39% 11% % 34% 9% % 58% 12% 91 55% 34% 10% % 34% 9% % 39% 13% % 37% 7% 44 50% 38% 12% % 38% 12% % 35% 10% % 60% 12% % 34% 13% 91 78% 13% 9% % 37% 12% % 32% 9% % 38% 7% % 49% 13% 61 52% 34% 13% 243 Page 17 of 18

19 Question 23: Do you think the casinos will be mostly good, mostly bad, or a mix of both for Ohio? MOSTLY GOOD FOR OHIO MOSTLY BAD FOR OHIO DON'T KNOW 24% 17% 58% 1% % 11% 55% 86 27% 8% 64% 1% % 18% 60% 1% % 21% 54% 3% % 7% 68% 1% 92 24% 17% 57% 2% % 17% 55% 1% % 17% 61% 1% % 16% 54% 3% 45 26% 21% 52% 2% % 14% 59% 2% % 15% 63% 1% % 10% 61% 1% % 17% 61% 4% 94 20% 23% 56% 1% % 17% 56% 2% % 15% 62% 1% % 15% 64% 1% % 22% 56% 2% 62 25% 17% 56% 1% 251 Page 18 of 18