THE POLITICO-GW BATTLEGROUND POLL

Transcription

1 THE POLITICO-GW BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,000 Registered Likely Voters

2 Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? 59% 34% 7% Right direction Unsure Wrong track Q1

3 December 2-6, 2012 / N=1,000 Registered likely voters / ±3.1% M.O.E. Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? 57% 55% 54% 5 54% 67% 6 60% 51% 7 63% 64% 6 59% 56% 55% 75% 61% 59% 59% 57% 56% 57% 54% 53% 56% 54% 59% 55% 38% 40% 40% 41% 39% 38% 36% 3 31% 34% 31% 3 28% 28% 29% 40% 39% 40% 37% 38% 37%37% 39% 35% 33% 34% 3 Mar- Jun Aug- Oct Mar- Oct Feb- 06 Sep- 06 Jul- 09 Dec- 09 Apr- 10 Aug- 10 Sep- 10 Oct- 10 May- Sep Nov- 11 Feb- 12 May- Aug- Sep- 9/ /12 10/4 /12 10/1 1/12 10/1 10/2 8/12 5/12 11/1 /12 11/5 /12 12/6 /12 Right Direction 38% 40% 40% 41% 39% 28% 3 31% 38% 34% 36% 28% 31% 29% 3 19% 18% 35% 33% 3 37% 38% 39% 40% 37% 37% 40% 39% 34% Wrong Track 57% 55% 54% 5 54% 67% 60% 6 51% 56% 55% 6 63% 64% 59% 7 75% 59% 59% 61% 57% 56% 54% 53% 57% 56% 55% 54% 59% Uns ure 7% 7% 9% 7% 11% 9% 9% 10% 7% 9% 9% 8% 6% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6% 7% Q1

4 If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, in your Congressional district? 4 45% 13% Republican Undecided Democratic Q2

5 December 2-6, 2012 / N=1,000 Registered likely voters / ±3.1% M.O.E. If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for, the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, in your Congressional district? 44% 47% 45% 47% 44% 45% 47% 45% 43% 45% 44% 4 45% 44% 45% 4 13% 8% 11% 13% 9% 10% 9% 10% 8% 9% 8% 7% 13% 11/9/11 2/22/12 5/3/12 8/8/12 9/20/12 9/27/12 10/4/12 10/11/12 10/18/12 10/25/12 11/1/12 11/5/12 12/6/12 Republican 43% 45% 45% 45% 44% 45% 44% 47% 4 Undecided 13% 8% 11% 13% 9% 10% 9% 10% 8% 9% 8% 7% 13% Democratic 44% 47% 44% 4 47% 45% 45% Q2

6 Now I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important for Congress to focus on. Please listen as I read the list and tell me which one issue you think is most important. The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Illegal immigration Taxes Terrorism and homeland security 4% 5% 1% Education 11% Health care costs 5% Government spending and the budget deficit The economy 23% 2 Gas and energy prices Medicare and Social Security 7% Jobs 14% Q3

7 And what would you say is the next most important problem? (If choice made in Q3, Asked of N=950 Respondents, or 94.8% of Sample) The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 6% Illegal immigration 3% Taxes 7% Terrorism and homeland security 4% Education 9% Health care costs 13% Government spending and the budget deficit 10% The economy 19% Gas and energy prices Medicare and Social Security 8% Jobs 17% Q4

8 How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing? 50% 47% 3% Approve Unsure Disapprove Q5

9 December 2-6, 2012 / N=1,000 Registered likely voters / ±3.1% M.O.E. How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing? 51% 5 50% 5 53% 48% 49% 48% 48% 45% 45% 44% 45% 50% 48% 49% 49% 50% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 50% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50% 49% 47% 4% 10/20/1 0 4% 5% 5% 3% 5% 3% 5/12/11 9/1/11 11/9/11 2/22/12 5/3/12 8/8/12 9/20/12 9/27/12 10/4/12 10/11/1 2 10/18/1 2 Approve 5 45% 44% 53% 48% 48% 50% 49% 50% 50% 49% 50% 49% 49% 50% Unsure 4% 4% 5% 5% 3% 5% 3% 3% Disapprove 51% 45% 50% 5 45% 48% 49% 48% 49% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 47% 10/25/1 2 3% 11/1/12 11/5/12 12/6/12 Q5

10 Over the past few years, both the Republicans and the Democrats had candidates for the US House and the US Senate who ran poor campaigns. Leaders in both parties have suggested that the national political parties should take a more active role in supporting stronger candidates during political primaries. Others have suggested that this type of meddling will lead to candidates who are less responsive to voters. Do you think it would be a good idea or a bad idea for the national political parties to take a more active role during political primaries to support stronger candidates? 48% 41% 11% Good idea Unsure Bad idea Q6

11 Now I would like to read you the names of several individuals. For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and if so, whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just say so. Barack Obama 50% 53% 50% 5 53% 5 51% 51% 50% 5 47% 47% 45% 45% 45% 45% 48% 45% 8/8/2012 9/20/2012 9/27/ /4/ /11/ /18/ /25/ /1/ /5/ /6/2012 Favorable Unfavorable Q7

12 Now I would like to read you the names of several individuals. For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and if so, whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just say so. Mitt Romney 49% 48% 47% 51% 44% 50% 45% 5 43% 50% 50% 47% 47% 44% 8/8/2012 9/20/2012 9/27/ /4/ /11/ /18/ /25/ /1/ /5/ /6/2012 Favorable Unfavorable Q8

13 Now I would like to read you the names of several individuals. For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and if so, whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just say so. Grover Norquist 7% 18% 15% 61% Jeb Bush 39% 34% 15% 1 Susan Rice 26% 29% 19% 26% John Boehner 29% 34% 14% 24% Marco Rubio 33% 14% 17% 36% Joe Biden 43% 7% 5% Paul Ryan 47% 33% 9% 11% Hillary Clinton 60% 35% 4% 1% Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard of Q9-16

14 I am going to read you some issues. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue. Reducing the federal budget deficit 39% 3% 58% Immigration 7% 48% Gay marriage 48% 10% 4 Working with Congress 50% 5% 45% Taxes 48% 4% 47% Economy 53% Medicare 48% 9% 44% Approve Unsure Disapprove Q17-23

15 Would you support or oppose an immigration reform proposal that allows illegal or undocumented immigrants to earn citizenship over a period of several years? 6 34% 4% Support Unsure Oppose Q24

16 Would you support or oppose an immigration reform proposal that allows the children of illegal or undocumented immigrants to earn the right to stay here permanently if they complete a college degree or serve in the military? 77% 4% 19% Support Unsure Oppose Q25

17 Which of these best describes your views on same sex marriage or gay marriage: Same sex couples should be able to be legally married; same sex couples should be able to enter into civil unions but not be allowed to get married, or same sex couples should not be allowed to have any type of legal union? Legal marriage 40% Civil unions 30% No legal union 24% Other 1% Unsure/ Refused 5% Q26

18 Have your views on same sex marriage or gay marriage changed over the past few years? 81% 18% 1% Yes Unsure No Q27

19 As you may already know, in December, Congress will consider a number of proposals to reduce the federal budget deficit. Please listen carefully as I read each proposal and tell me if you would favor or oppose that particular proposal. Raising taxes on households that earn more than $250, % 38% Raising taxes on small businesses that earn more than $250, % 69% Reducing Medicare benefits for seniors that have higher incomes 51% 3% Reducing Social Security benefits for seniors that have higher incomes. 50% 3% 47% Raising the retirement age for Social Security benefits. 34% 3% 64% Favor Unsure Oppose Q28-32

20 As you may already know, in December, Congress will consider a number of proposals to reduce the federal budget deficit. Please listen carefully as I read each proposal and tell me if you would favor or oppose that particular proposal. Making significant cuts to the budget of the Defense Department. 38% 3% 59% Ending foreign aid 48% 7% Cutting government spending across the board 75% 23% Raising taxes on large corporations 64% 33% Favor Unsure Oppose Q33-36

21 Regardless of how you feel about requiring taxes on those with higher incomes, do you believe that if we raise taxes on households that earn over $250,000 per year it will have a negative impact on the economy? 58% 38% 4% Yes Unsure No Q37