FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll 7 January 08

Transcription

1 New Hampshire FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll 7 January 08 Polling was conducted by telephone January 4-6, The total sample is 1000 likely New Hampshire primary voters with a margin of error of ±3%. Likely Democratic Primary voters subsample n=500, ±4 percentage points Likely Republican Primary voters subsample n=500, ±4 percentage points Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic primary election? Republican Democratic Primary Primary Registered Independents 45% 55 Likely Republican Primary Voters I m going to read you a list of candidates. If the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary were held today, would you vote for...? (ROTATE) Jan 08 Dec 07 Nov John McCain 34% 20% 21% 2. Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee Rudy Giuliani Ron Paul Fred Thompson Duncan Hunter Tom Tancredo na 1-9. (Other) (Don t know) Likely Democratic Primary Voters I m going to read you a list of candidates. If the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary were held today, would you vote for...? (ROTATE) Jan 08 Dec 07 Nov Barack Obama 32% 25% 23% 2. Hillary Clinton John Edwards Bill Richardson Dennis Kucinich Mike Gravel Joe Biden na Chris Dodd na (Other) (Don t know)

2 Are you certain to support that candidate, or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else in the 2008 New Hampshire presidential primary? Certain to support May change mind (Don t know) 4-6 Jan 08 68% 24 7 All Dem primary voters 66% Clinton voters 78% 21 2 Obama voters 74% 26 1 All GOP primary voters 70% 28 1 Romney voters 72% 27 1 McCain voters 72% 27 1 Giuliani voters 66% 34 - Huckabee voters 73% Dec 07 54% All Dem primary voters 55% Clinton voters 71% 29 1 Obama voters 58% 39 2 All GOP primary voters 54% Romney voters 60% 40 - McCain voters 54% 44 2 Giuliani voters 55% Nov 07 50% All Dem primary voters 50% Clinton voters 70% 29 1 Obama voters 56% 43 2 All GOP primary voters 49% Romney voters 55% 43 2 McCain voters 60% 38 2 Giuliani voters 55% 45 - Likely Republican Primary Voters How confident are you that if (INSERT NAME OF RESPONDENT S FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE) is nominated, he can beat the Democratic candidate in the 2008 general election? SCALE: 1. Extremely confident 2. Very confident 3. Somewhat confident 4. Not very confident 5. (Don t know) - Confident - - Not confident Total Ext Vry Total Smwt Ntvry (DK) 4-6 Jan 08 57% Romney voters 66% McCain voters 53% Giuliani voters 66% Huckabee voters 54% Dec 07 51% Romney voters 63% McCain voters 53% Giuliani voters 60% Nov 07 45% Romney voters 51% McCain voters 54% Giuliani voters 61%

3 Likely Democratic Primary Voters How confident are you that if (INSERT NAME OF RESPONDENT S FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE) is nominated, s/he can beat the Republican candidate in the 2008 general election? SCALE: 1. Extremely confident 2. Very confident 3. Somewhat confident 4. Not very confident 5. (Don t know) - Confident - - Not confident Total Ext Vry Total Smwt Ntvry (DK) 4-6 Jan 08 69% Clinton voters 77% Obama voters 84% Dec 07 63% Clinton voters 79% Obama voters 71% Nov 07 57% Clinton voters 77% Obama voters 67% (Ask all) Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you believe will be the next president of the United States? (OPEN ENDED DO NOT READ RESPONSES) Likely Primary Voters 4-6 Jan Nov 07 All Dem Rep All Dem Rep (Barack Obama) 21% 32% 11% 9% 14% 3% (Hillary Clinton) (John McCain) (Mitt Romney) (John Edwards) (Rudy Giuliani) (Mike Huckabee) (Bill Richardson) (Dennis Kucinich) (Ron Paul) (Fred Thompson) (Joe Biden) na na na (Other) (Don t know) (Ask all) Thinking specifically about your vote in the presidential primary, which ONE of the following would you say is the MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE in deciding which candidate to support over the party s other candidates? Was it the candidate s position on: (ROTATE, READ LIST) (If don t know, reread question) Likely Primary Voters 4-6 Jan Dec 07 All Dem Rep All Dem Rep 1. The economy 23% 26% 20% 20% 19% 21% 2. The war in Iraq Health care Immigration Homeland security Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage Taxes Education (Don t know)

4 Likely Republican Primary Voters I m going to read you a list of qualities many people think are important in presidential candidates. Thinking specifically about your vote in the primary, which ONE quality mattered most in deciding who you are supporting over the other candidates in the Republican primary... (ROTATE) (If don t know, reread question) 4-6 Jan Dec He stands up for what he believes 48% 53% 2. He has the right experience He is a true conservative He has the best chance to win against the Democrat (Don t know/refused) 5 5 Likely Democratic Primary Voters I m going to read you a list of qualities many people think are important in presidential candidates. Thinking specifically about your vote in the primary, which ONE quality mattered most in deciding who you are supporting over the other candidates in the Democratic primary... (ROTATE) (If don t know, reread question) 4-6 Jan Dec Can bring about change 39% 42% 2. Understands average Americans Has the right experience Has the best chance to win against the Republican (Don t know/refused) 5 4 (Ask all) What would your reaction be if [NAME] were to become the next president? SCALE: 1. Enthusiastic 2. Pleased 3. Neutral 4. Displeased 5. Scared 6. (Don t know) Enthusiastic Pleased Ntrl Displeased Scared (DK) Hillary Clinton 18% Dem primary voters 32% GOP primary voters 3% Barack Obama 21% Dem primary voters 35% GOP primary voters 6% Rudy Giuliani 7% Dem primary voters 3% GOP primary voters 11% John McCain 18% Dem primary voters 6% GOP primary voters 29% Mitt Romney 12% Dem primary voters 4% GOP primary voters 20% Mike Huckabee 7% Dem primary voters 3% GOP primary voters 12%

5 Likely Republican Primary Voters Do you think elected officials should or should not be influenced by their religious beliefs when making policy decisions? Should Should not (Don t know) 4-6 Jan 08 30% 66 5 Likely Democratic Primary Voters Which is more important to you -- changing the party in the White House or changing the way things work in Washington? (ROTATE CHOICES) SCALE: 1. Changing the party in the White House 2. Changing the way things work in Washington 3. (Both the same) 4. (Neither) 5. (Don t know) Change Change way party things work (Both) (Neither) (DK) 4-6 Jan 08 20% (Ask all) Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president? Is that strongly or only somewhat? SCALE: 1. Strongly approve 2. Somewhat approve 3. Somewhat disapprove 4. Strongly disapprove 5. (Don t know/refused) - Approve - - Disapprove Total Stgly Smwt Total Smwt Stgly (DK/Ref.) 4-6 Jan 08 35% Dem primary voters 11% GOP primary voters 59% Dec 07 31% Dem primary voters 9% GOP primary voters 54% Nov 07 34% Dem primary voters 10% GOP primary voters 57%

6 New Hampshire Republican Primary Trial Heat Romney McCain Giuliani Paul Huckabee Thompson Undecided Likely Republican Voters Jan 27% 34% 9% 5% 11% 2% 10% Likely Republican Voters - Dec 33% 20% 16% 8% 11% 2% 8% Likely Republican Voters - Nov 29% 21% 19% 4% 7% 4% 14% Certain to support 30% 39% 10% 5% 13% 2% May change mind 29% 36% 12% 7% 11% 2% Most Important Candidate Quality Stands up for what he believes 20% 39% 9% 6% 12% 2% 9% Best chance to win against Dem 35% 22% 23% 2% 12% 2% 4% Right experience 36% 38% 10% 2% 4% 8% True conservative 34% 25% 3% 6% 17% 1% 11% Most Important Issue Homeland security 24% 38% 18% 3% 5% 2% 10% Economy 23% 38% 12% 5% 7% 3% 9% Iraq war 23% 44% 10% 6% 7% 1% 8% Immigration 51% 19% 7% 3% 5% 9% Taxes 38% 19% 7% 10% 21% 2% 2% Social issues 11% 8% 4% 4% 45% 2% 22% Health care 20% 39% 4% 5% 13% 2% 12% Second Choice Romney voters 3% 50% 17% 4% 8% 3% McCain 38% 4% 14% 3% 17% 2% Giuliani 47% 33% 1% 8% 3% Paul 9% 32% 4% 37% Huckabee 25% 46% 5% 10% 2% 2% Thompson 29% 17% 14% 6% 11% Female 28% 31% 10% 4% 12% 1% 11% Male 26% 38% 8% 6% 9% 2% 8% Strongly approve of Bush job 32% 33% 11% 3% 12% 2% 7% Strongly/somewhat approve 30% 31% 10% 3% 11% 3% 10% Disapprove 23% 38% 8% 9% 11% *% 8% Pro-life 29% 23% 6% 7% 17% 2% 12% Pro-choice 24% 44% 10% 6% 7% 1% 6% % 32% 18% 6% 13% 3% 8% % 34% 17% 6% 12% 4% 8% % 36% 9% 8% 13% 2% 7% % 29% 7% 5% 10% 2% 12% % 35% 5% 4% 9% 1% 11% % 40% 4% 3% 8% 10% Very conservative 41% 24% 4% 6% 12% 2% 7% Very/Somewhat conservative 36% 29% 7% 4% 12% 2% 7% Moderate 19% 39% 10% 5% 12% 1% 12% Strong Republicans 34% 30% 13% 3% 10% 2% 6% All Republicans 30% 34% 11% 3% 11% 2% 7% Independents 23% 35% 5% 8% 12% 2% 13% Registered Undeclared/Independent 22% 34% 7% 9% 14% 12% Attend Religious Services At least once a week 25% 31% 6% 5% 18% 1% 10% Less than once a week 31% 36% 11% 5% 4% 2% 10% College 28% 34% 9% 6% 10% 2% 9% No College 24% 35% 10% 4% 13% 1% 12% Less than $50,000 27% 39% 9% 2% 16% 1% 5% $50,000 and above 29% 34% 8% 6% 9% 2% 9%

7 Most Important Candidate Characteristic to Vote Best Right True Chance exper- conser- Stands to win ience vative up Likely Republican Voters - Jan 9% 23% 15% 48% Likely Republican Voters - Dec 7% 21% 14% 53% Romney voters 11% 31% 20% 36% McCain 6% 26% 11% 55% Giuliani 22% 25% 4% 46% Paul 3% 8% 18% 59% Huckabee 10% 9% 24% 50% Thompson 10% 10% 68% Female 7% 22% 13% 51% Male 10% 24% 18% 44% Strongly approve of Bush job 12% 24% 20% 42% Strongly/Somewhat approve 11% 22% 17% 46% Disapprove 6% 25% 13% 52% Pro-life 7% 22% 19% 46% Pro-choice 8% 25% 12% 52% % 25% 14% 48% % 25% 16% 45% % 23% 19% 50% % 16% 17% 51% 55+ 9% 23% 14% 46% 65+ 8% 29% 13% 43% Very conservative 6% 22% 28% 36% Very/Somewhat conservative 8% 20% 22% 45% Moderate 9% 26% 10% 52% Strong Republicans 9% 25% 15% 46% All Republicans 9% 24% 14% 49% Independents 8% 24% 15% 46% Attend Religious Services At least once a week 9% 22% 18% 44% At least once a week 9% 25% 15% 49% College 8% 24% 15% 48% No College 11% 21% 16% 48% Less than $50,000 14% 28% 20% 35% $50,000 and above 9% 22% 15% 50% Certainty of Vote May Certain change to support mind Likely Republican Primary Voters 64% 26% Romney voters 72% 27% McCain 72% 27% Giuliani 66% 34% Paul 62% 35% Huckabee 73% 27% Thompson 68% 25%

8 Most Important Issue The war Health The Immigra- Homeland Social in Iraq care economy tion security Education Taxes issues Likely Republican Voters Jan 20% 7% 20% 16% 13% 2% 7% 7% Likely Republican Voters - Dec 14% 10% 21% 16% 12% 2% 7% 11% Romney voters 17% 6% 17% 30% 11% 11% 3% McCain 25% 8% 22% 9% 14% 4% 4% 2% Giuliani 21% 4% 27% 12% 25% 6% 3% Paul 24% 8% 21% 10% 8% 14% 5% Huckabee 13% 9% 14% 8% 6% 3% 14% 27% Thompson 7% 10% 32% 13% 10% 10% Female 21% 8% 19% 16% 12% 2% 6% 9% Male 18% 7% 21% 16% 13% 3% 10% 4% Strongly approve of Bush job 15% 7% 20% 18% 19% 2% 7% 7% Strongly/Somewhat approve 17% 8% 19% 18% 13% 2% 7% 7% Disapprove 25% 7% 19% 14% 11% 2% 8% 7% Pro-life 16% 9% 13% 16% 16% 3% 7% 14% Pro-choice 24% 8% 23% 16% 11% 3% 8% 2% % 9% 21% 12% 13% 5% 11% 10% % 8% 22% 12% 11% 4% 11% 9% % 6% 25% 12% 13% 2% 9% 8% % 7% 15% 18% 19% 2% 7% 5% % 7% 17% 20% 13% 1% 6% 5% % 8% 19% 21% 9% 1% 5% 5% Very conservative 13% 5% 20% 25% 13% 2% 6% 10% Very/Somewhat conservative 13% 7% 19% 21% 14% 2% 7% 10% Moderate 25% 6% 19% 13% 13% 3% 9% 3% Strong Republicans 16% 5% 18% 21% 14% 3% 7% 7% All Republicans 16% 5% 21% 21% 14% 3% 6% 7% Independents 24% 11% 18% 10% 12% 1% 9% 6% Attend Religious Services At least once a week 19% 8% 22% 11% 15% 2% 7% 9% Less than once a week 18% 15% 15% 22% 7% 3% 9% 4% College 21% 6% 19% 17% 12% 3% 8% 6% No College 16% 11% 22% 14% 15% 1% 6% 10% Less than $50,000 22% 10% 16% 16% 12% 2% 11% 7% $50,000 and above 19% 8% 18% 19% 12% 3% 9% 6% How confident are you that if (candidate) mentioned is nominated, he can beat the Republican candidate Extremely Very Somewhat Not very Confident Confident Confident Confident Likely Republican Primary Voters 22% 30% 28% 6% Romney voters 25% 41% 24% 5% McCain 24% 29% 36% 8% Giuliani 37% 29% 24% 6% Paul 14% 27% 50% 8% Huckabee 16% 38% 37% 5% Thompson 20% 36% 36% 12%

9 New Hampshire Democratic Primary Trial Heat Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Undecided Likely Democratic Voters Jan 28% 32% 18% 6% 12% Likely Democratic Voters - Dec 34% 25% 15% 6% 13% Likely Democratic Voters - Nov 30% 23% 17% 12% 12% Certain to support 33% 36% 20% 8% May change mind 28% 40% 21% 5% Most Important Candidate Quality Can bring about change 21% 47% 16% 2% 11% Right experience 47% 10% 12% 15% 14% Best chance to win against GOP 26% 31% 30% 2% 9% Understands average Americans 20% 33% 25% 5% 11% Most Important Issue Homeland security 33% 22% 24% 6% 15% Economy 33% 30% 21% 6% 9% Iraq war 23% 35% 17% 9% 11% Immigration 24% 43% 7% 4% 14% Taxes 51% 14% 21% 14% Social issues 26% 47% 5% 4% 13% Health care 34% 19% 24% 3% 16% Second Choice Clinton voters 4% 63% 19% 1% Obama 42% 3% 32% 3% Edwards 32% 44% 2% 10% Richardson 27% 26% 40% Female 35% 30% 14% 6% 13% Male 20% 34% 24% 7% 10% Women 45 or younger 22% 43% 13% 7% 12% Women age 46 and over 39% 27% 14% 5% 14% Men 45 or younger 20% 44% 20% 3% 5% Men age 46 and over 21% 30% 26% 8% 12% Approve of Bush job 12% 40% 19% 2% 16% Disapprove 30% 31% 19% 7% 11% % 43% 17% 5% 8% % 37% 20% 6% 10% % 34% 21% 6% 12% % 30% 23% 7% 9% % 26% 19% 7% 13% % 23% 15% 7% 17% Very liberal 29% 31% 22% 3% 9% Very/Somewhat Liberal 27% 33% 22% 4% 10% Moderate 29% 32% 17% 9% 11% Strong Democrats 33% 26% 21% 5% 12% All Democrats 31% 28% 20% 5% 13% Independents 25% 37% 16% 7% 11% Registered Undeclared/Independent 26% 35% 18% 9% 10% Union Household 27% 22% 31% 11% 7% Non-Union HH 29% 33% 16% 5% 13% College 27% 32% 20% 6% 12% No College 35% 32% 13% 5% 11% Less than $50,000 33% 29% 23% 3% 9% $50,000 and above 28% 36% 16% 8% 10%

10 Most Important Candidate Characteristic to Vote Under- Best Right Bring stands Chance exper- about averaage to win ience change Americans Likely Democratic Voters Jan 12% 24% 39% 20% Likely Democratic Voters - Dec 14% 20% 42% 21% Clinton voters 11% 41% 29% 15% Obama 11% 8% 57% 21% Edwards 19% 16% 33% 28% Richardson 4% 59% 14% 16% Female 10% 28% 37% 21% Male 14% 20% 41% 20% Women 45 or younger 4% 21% 51% 23% Women age 46 and over 12% 30% 33% 20% Men 45 or younger 9% 21% 45% 22% Men age 46 and over 15% 20% 39% 19% % 21% 48% 22% % 20% 43% 26% % 18% 39% 28% % 23% 37% 21% % 28% 35% 17% % 33% 33% 13% Very liberal 16% 14% 41% 23% Very/Somewhat Liberal 15% 17% 41% 22% Moderate 11% 27% 37% 21% Strong Democrats 14% 24% 37% 20% All Democrats 13% 25% 36% 21% Independents 11% 22% 44% 19% Union Household 17% 21% 35% 21% Non-Union HH 11% 25% 39% 21% College 13% 25% 40% 20% No College 8% 24% 36% 23% Less than $50,000 7% 27% 32% 29% $50,000 and above 12% 23% 43% 19% Certainty of Vote May Certain change to support mind Likely Democratic Primary Voters 66% 21% Clinton voters 78% 21% Obama 74% 26% Edwards 73% 23% Richardson 84% 16%

11 Most Important Issue The war Health The Immigra- Homeland Social in Iraq care economy tion security Education Taxes issues Likely Democratic Voters - Jan 24% 22% 26% 6% 4% 6% 2% 4% Likely Democratic Voters - Dec 27% 24% 19% 5% 3% 8% 3% 4% Clinton voters 20% 26% 31% 5% 5% 6% 4% Obama 26% 13% 24% 7% 3% 9% 3% 6% Edwards 22% 29% 29% 2% 5% 6% 1% 1% Richardson 38% 10% 26% 4% 4% 6% 3% Female 26% 25% 24% 3% 3% 5% 1% 4% Male 22% 18% 28% 8% 5% 8% 2% 5% Women 45 or younger 18% 19% 31% 5% 4% 6% 3% 8% Women age 46 and over 28% 27% 22% 3% 3% 5% *% 3% Men 45 or younger 23% 13% 24% 4% 7% 15% 5% 5% Men age 46 and over 21% 19% 30% 8% 4% 5% 1% 5% % 16% 27% 5% 6% 11% 4% 6% % 22% 27% 6% 6% 6% 3% 7% % 21% 29% 4% 5% 4% 1% 6% % 26% 27% 5% 2% 3% 5% % 24% 25% 6% 3% 5% 1% 3% % 23% 22% 7% 3% 7% 2% 2% Very liberal 28% 28% 18% 5% 5% 2% 1% 6% Very/Somewhat Liberal 24% 31% 21% 3% 5% 3% 1% 4% Moderate 23% 18% 30% 5% 2% 7% 2% 5% Strong Democrats 29% 28% 22% 4% 4% 4% 1% 2% All Democrats 25% 26% 26% 6% 4% 4% 2% 3% Independents 23% 16% 27% 4% 4% 9% 1% 7% Union Household 25% 23% 24% 9% 1% 13% 1% 1% Non-Union HH 23% 21% 27% 5% 4% 5% 2% 5% College 25% 22% 26% 5% 3% 5% 1% 5% No College 22% 23% 25% 6% 5% 10% 3% 2% Less than $50,000 24% 20% 22% 4% 7% 12% 2% 1% $50,000 and above 24% 24% 28% 5% 3% 4% 1% 5% How confident are you that if (candidate) mentioned is nominated, he can beat the Dem. Candidate Extremely Very Somewhat Not very Confident Confident Confident Confident Likely Democratic Primary Voters 31% 38% 14% 3% Clinton voters 41% 36% 20% 1% Obama 35% 49% 11% 2% Edwards 38% 42% 13% 3% Richardson 18% 47% 20% 13%