The Economist/YouGov Poll
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1 The Economist/YouGov Poll Week 18 Fieldwork: 4th-7th April 2008 Full set of tracker and topical questions on the presidential candidates Sample: 1,000 adult Americans Margin of error: +/-4% The margin of error measures only sampling variability, and does not adjust for other types of non- sampling error, such as non-response, panel participation, and misreporting. The following tables show data from The Economist/YouGov poll, which will track popular opinion ahead of America s presidential election on November 4th Polling is carried out by YouGov/Polimetrix for publication in The Economist, and on Economist.com every Thursday at Topical questions are set by The Economist in consultation with YouGov/Polimetrix.
2 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 2 Who would you like to be the Democratic nominee for President? Base: Valid Cases Hillary Clinton % 45% 0% 0% 38% 44% 56% 35% 52% 35% 43% 49% 49% 49% 21% 56% 50% 44% 35% Barack Obama % 43% 0% 0% 54% 42% 15% 56% 33% 53% 43% 40% 38% 38% 69% 33% 35% 46% 61% Not sure % 12% 0% 0% 8% 14% 29% 8% 15% 11% 14% 11% 13% 13% 10% 11% 15% 10% 4%
3 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 3 If the next election for President were held today and the Democratic candidate were Hillary Clinton and the Republican candidate were John McCain, for whom would you vote? Base: Valid Cases Hillary Clinton % 78% 5% 38% 77% 51% 12% 38% 48% 41% 47% 45% 32% 39% 66% 45% 48% 41% 33% John McCain % 13% 90% 45% 14% 34% 79% 49% 40% 42% 39% 46% 57% 49% 19% 40% 40% 47% 58% Not sure % 9% 4% 17% 9% 15% 9% 13% 12% 17% 14% 10% 10% 12% 15% 15% 12% 12% 9%
4 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 4 If, instead, the Democratic candidate were Barack Obama and the Republican candidate were John McCain, for whom would you vote? Base: Valid Cases Barack Obama % 70% 11% 44% 77% 52% 14% 43% 43% 52% 50% 39% 29% 37% 86% 44% 40% 46% 41% John McCain % 19% 83% 44% 12% 35% 76% 46% 41% 33% 37% 49% 60% 50% 6% 37% 44% 45% 48% Not sure % 11% 6% 12% 11% 13% 9% 10% 16% 16% 14% 12% 11% 13% 8% 18% 17% 9% 11%
5 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 5 If the Democratic candidate for President in November was Hillary Clinton and the Republican candidate was John McCain, who do you think would win? Base: Valid Cases Hillary Clinton would probably win the election 26% 47% 7% 18% 41% 29% 10% 24% 28% 21% 27% 29% 20% 23% 41% 29% 33% 21% 18% The election would be very close 27% 27% 20% 35% 36% 31% 20% 28% 27% 34% 22% 26% 31% 28% 21% 25% 24% 28% 31% John McCain would probably win the election 38% 19% 69% 39% 15% 34% 63% 44% 33% 32% 40% 38% 44% 40% 25% 36% 32% 44% 50% Not sure % 7% 4% 9% 8% 7% 7% 5% 12% 12% 11% 7% 5% 8% 13% 9% 11% 8% 2%
6 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 6 If instead the Democratic candidate was Barack Obama and the Republican candidate was John McCain, who do you think would win? Base: Valid Cases Barack Obama would probably win the election 38% 53% 16% 41% 62% 42% 20% 37% 38% 45% 42% 34% 27% 34% 62% 39% 36% 39% 33% The election would be very close 21% 17% 29% 20% 18% 21% 25% 22% 20% 22% 19% 21% 23% 22% 16% 17% 20% 20% 27% John McCain would probably win the election 31% 22% 51% 31% 14% 29% 47% 34% 28% 20% 27% 36% 40% 34% 10% 31% 31% 34% 35% Not sure % 8% 4% 9% 6% 8% 8% 6% 14% 13% 12% 8% 10% 10% 12% 12% 13% 7% 5%
7 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 7 Which of these is the most important issue for you? Base: Valid Cases The war in Iraq % 15% 8% 14% 14% 15% 7% 15% 10% 10% 10% 13% 18% 12% 15% 8% 11% 13% 15% The economy % 42% 33% 41% 39% 43% 33% 39% 38% 40% 45% 35% 32% 37% 42% 43% 38% 40% 36% Immigration % 1% 16% 14% 2% 8% 17% 11% 7% 6% 8% 10% 15% 11% 5% 6% 7% 10% 12% The Environment and global warming 5% 7% 3% 5% 10% 5% 3% 5% 6% 9% 6% 4% 2% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% Terrorism % 4% 20% 8% 1% 5% 21% 11% 7% 3% 9% 11% 12% 10% 5% 6% 7% 11% 17% Gay Rights % 2% 1% 2% 5% 1% 1% 4% 1% 6% 3% 1% 0% 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1% Education % 6% 4% 3% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 8% 6% 3% 1% 4% 6% 8% 5% 4% 6% Health care % 17% 7% 6% 19% 11% 5% 7% 16% 13% 10% 13% 7% 10% 13% 16% 13% 11% 7% Social Security % 6% 8% 7% 5% 8% 7% 5% 9% 4% 3% 10% 14% 7% 8% 7% 11% 4% 1%
8 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 8 Would you say things in this country today are... Base: Valid Cases Generally headed in the right direction 14% 5% 34% 9% 4% 10% 27% 18% 10% 13% 14% 14% 18% 15% 10% 11% 10% 16% 22% Off on the wrong track % 87% 55% 83% 90% 80% 63% 74% 79% 76% 78% 77% 71% 77% 76% 75% 77% 77% 72% Not sure % 8% 11% 8% 5% 10% 10% 9% 10% 11% 9% 9% 11% 8% 14% 14% 13% 7% 6%
9 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 9 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Base: Valid Cases Strongly Approve % 2% 21% 4% 0% 4% 19% 9% 7% 6% 5% 10% 12% 8% 3% 11% 6% 8% 11% Somewhat Approve % 4% 48% 20% 6% 14% 42% 23% 18% 18% 19% 20% 29% 24% 7% 14% 19% 24% 29% Somewhat Disapprove % 12% 19% 17% 9% 16% 19% 15% 17% 15% 18% 17% 11% 16% 14% 16% 17% 17% 13% Strongly Disapprove % 81% 10% 56% 82% 64% 18% 51% 53% 57% 54% 51% 47% 49% 74% 55% 54% 50% 47% Not Sure % 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 4% 4% 4% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 0%
10 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 10 Overall, do you approve of the way that the Democrats in the United States Congress are handling their job? Base: Valid Cases Strongly Approve % 11% 1% 3% 7% 7% 2% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 13% 7% 7% 4% 2% Somewhat Approve % 47% 9% 20% 47% 29% 11% 24% 27% 25% 29% 24% 22% 24% 35% 29% 25% 27% 22% Somewhat Disapprove % 27% 27% 30% 30% 35% 21% 27% 30% 33% 26% 30% 24% 28% 32% 31% 28% 28% 31% Strongly Disapprove % 6% 61% 39% 7% 22% 63% 39% 25% 20% 28% 35% 49% 36% 9% 27% 26% 37% 41% Not Sure % 9% 2% 8% 10% 7% 4% 5% 12% 17% 11% 6% 2% 9% 12% 7% 15% 3% 3%
11 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 11 Do you think the value of your home will increase or decrease in the next 12 months? Base: Valid Cases Increase % 8% 21% 15% 10% 12% 20% 16% 13% 9% 17% 15% 11% 14% 17% 16% 10% 19% 17% Stay about the same % 40% 49% 41% 38% 43% 45% 43% 40% 37% 35% 47% 48% 43% 38% 38% 36% 45% 59% Decrease % 34% 19% 34% 37% 32% 24% 27% 32% 31% 29% 28% 35% 30% 26% 28% 34% 26% 20% Not sure % 17% 11% 11% 15% 14% 10% 14% 15% 23% 19% 10% 6% 13% 19% 18% 20% 10% 5%
12 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 12 Do you think your family's income will increase or decrease in the next 12 months? Base: Valid Cases Increase % 18% 30% 22% 18% 19% 28% 22% 22% 22% 30% 20% 9% 21% 32% 23% 18% 25% 32% Stay about the same % 55% 55% 54% 57% 54% 54% 55% 54% 53% 51% 55% 67% 56% 46% 54% 56% 55% 51% Decrease % 22% 11% 19% 22% 21% 13% 18% 17% 17% 11% 22% 22% 18% 16% 14% 19% 17% 15% Not sure % 5% 4% 5% 3% 6% 4% 4% 6% 8% 8% 3% 2% 4% 6% 9% 7% 4% 1%
13 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 13 How worried are you that you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job for any reason? Base: Valid Cases Very worried % 22% 9% 13% 17% 19% 10% 15% 17% 13% 17% 17% 10% 13% 25% 21% 20% 13% 7% Somewhat worried % 38% 31% 36% 39% 38% 31% 35% 35% 36% 41% 33% 29% 36% 30% 36% 40% 32% 27% Not very worried at all % 34% 58% 45% 36% 39% 57% 46% 42% 46% 38% 45% 55% 45% 43% 38% 33% 52% 62% Not sure % 5% 2% 6% 8% 4% 3% 4% 6% 5% 4% 5% 7% 6% 2% 6% 7% 3% 3%
14 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 14 Would you say Barack Obama is... Base: Valid Cases Very liberal % 13% 60% 36% 9% 27% 62% 40% 26% 22% 29% 35% 47% 37% 9% 26% 25% 37% 45% Somewhat liberal % 34% 12% 26% 47% 26% 12% 25% 23% 32% 24% 22% 20% 25% 20% 24% 20% 27% 28% Moderate % 29% 10% 21% 24% 25% 13% 19% 22% 15% 24% 22% 15% 17% 38% 25% 21% 20% 21% Somewhat conservative % 5% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 8% 5% 4% 4% 1% Very Conservative % 3% 3% 0% 3% 0% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 6% 2% 4% 0% 2% Not sure % 16% 12% 15% 13% 18% 6% 10% 24% 25% 18% 14% 14% 17% 18% 19% 26% 11% 3%
15 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 15 Do you think Barack Obama... Base: Valid Cases Says what he believes % 59% 23% 43% 66% 50% 23% 46% 42% 53% 50% 39% 30% 37% 81% 49% 39% 45% 44% Says what he thinks people want to hear 56% 41% 77% 57% 34% 50% 77% 54% 58% 47% 50% 61% 70% 63% 19% 51% 61% 55% 56%
16 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 16 Regardless of whether you agree with him, do you like Barack Obama as a person? Base: Valid Cases Like a lot % 45% 12% 32% 51% 37% 12% 33% 29% 37% 30% 31% 22% 26% 68% 28% 25% 33% 35% Like somewhat % 32% 39% 32% 29% 35% 39% 36% 33% 31% 37% 33% 39% 36% 20% 39% 36% 33% 37% Dislike % 15% 36% 21% 11% 16% 35% 23% 21% 21% 20% 23% 26% 25% 2% 20% 27% 21% 19% Not sure % 8% 14% 15% 9% 11% 13% 8% 18% 12% 14% 13% 14% 13% 11% 13% 13% 13% 9%
17 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 17 Would you say Hillary Clinton is... Base: Valid Cases Very liberal % 12% 59% 38% 12% 20% 67% 38% 27% 22% 30% 34% 48% 35% 17% 30% 26% 38% 41% Somewhat liberal % 29% 21% 26% 35% 28% 18% 26% 23% 25% 26% 24% 20% 26% 20% 18% 21% 27% 30% Moderate % 31% 7% 19% 28% 27% 6% 18% 22% 18% 18% 23% 17% 18% 21% 28% 21% 20% 17% Somewhat conservative % 10% 4% 6% 11% 7% 4% 7% 8% 8% 8% 6% 7% 6% 14% 6% 9% 5% 8% Very Conservative % 5% 1% 2% 5% 3% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 5% 5% 5% 1% 1% Not sure % 13% 8% 10% 8% 15% 4% 8% 19% 24% 15% 10% 6% 12% 23% 13% 19% 9% 3%
18 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 18 Do you think Hillary Clinton... Base: Valid Cases Says what she believes % 50% 13% 23% 41% 35% 17% 24% 37% 30% 31% 33% 26% 29% 33% 42% 38% 28% 20% Says what she thinks people want to hear 69% 50% 87% 77% 59% 65% 83% 76% 63% 70% 69% 67% 74% 71% 67% 58% 62% 72% 80%
19 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 19 Regardless of whether you agree with her, do you like Hillary Clinton as a person? Base: Valid Cases Like a lot % 43% 3% 13% 37% 25% 7% 17% 26% 17% 20% 26% 19% 19% 32% 27% 25% 20% 15% Like somewhat % 35% 12% 32% 35% 33% 17% 29% 28% 31% 29% 27% 26% 27% 36% 29% 32% 25% 27% Dislike % 18% 80% 49% 21% 36% 72% 51% 39% 45% 41% 44% 51% 49% 23% 36% 37% 49% 55% Not sure % 3% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 8% 7% 10% 3% 4% 5% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3%
20 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 20 Would you say John McCain is... Base: Valid Cases Very liberal % 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 1% 4% 3% 4% 3% 5% 3% 4% 2% 2% Somewhat liberal % 5% 14% 11% 2% 7% 17% 11% 8% 8% 7% 11% 9% 10% 7% 9% 8% 13% 5% Moderate % 12% 31% 26% 11% 23% 30% 27% 16% 22% 23% 20% 21% 24% 12% 16% 18% 26% 31% Somewhat conservative % 32% 38% 33% 33% 36% 36% 33% 31% 24% 25% 36% 46% 33% 25% 35% 28% 31% 42% Very Conservative % 24% 7% 14% 36% 14% 7% 15% 15% 15% 18% 15% 10% 14% 21% 15% 13% 17% 16% Not sure % 23% 8% 12% 15% 18% 7% 10% 28% 29% 24% 14% 10% 17% 32% 21% 30% 11% 4%
21 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 21 Do you think John McCain... Base: Valid Cases Says what he believes % 43% 75% 56% 45% 53% 67% 57% 54% 53% 50% 59% 61% 58% 37% 58% 50% 56% 68% Says what he thinks people want to hear 45% 57% 25% 44% 55% 47% 33% 43% 46% 47% 50% 41% 39% 42% 63% 42% 50% 44% 32%
22 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 22 Regardless of whether you agree with him, do you like John McCain as a person? Base: Valid Cases Like a lot % 10% 23% 17% 7% 15% 23% 18% 13% 16% 12% 17% 18% 17% 10% 14% 14% 16% 20% Like somewhat % 39% 63% 46% 39% 48% 53% 48% 45% 41% 40% 50% 59% 49% 31% 42% 45% 49% 55% Dislike % 34% 9% 23% 36% 23% 15% 25% 21% 24% 26% 24% 14% 22% 29% 26% 24% 21% 19% Not sure % 17% 5% 14% 17% 14% 9% 9% 21% 19% 23% 9% 10% 12% 30% 19% 17% 14% 6%
23 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 23 Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following candidates for President? John McCain Base: Valid Cases Very favorable % 9% 23% 12% 5% 14% 19% 15% 13% 13% 12% 14% 18% 15% 7% 15% 14% 13% 15% Somewhat favorable % 26% 57% 43% 25% 39% 51% 42% 37% 35% 34% 43% 48% 42% 32% 31% 36% 41% 52% Somewhat unfavorable % 32% 13% 24% 36% 24% 18% 24% 24% 22% 30% 22% 18% 23% 20% 30% 23% 27% 18% Very unfavorable % 27% 6% 18% 30% 18% 9% 18% 18% 20% 17% 19% 13% 16% 32% 15% 18% 16% 15% Not sure % 6% 2% 3% 5% 5% 2% 2% 8% 10% 7% 2% 3% 4% 9% 10% 9% 3% 1%
24 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 24 Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following candidates for President? Hillary Clinton Base: Valid Cases Very favorable % 46% 3% 14% 37% 28% 7% 17% 29% 21% 24% 25% 18% 20% 28% 35% 28% 21% 14% Somewhat favorable % 30% 9% 23% 32% 26% 10% 22% 21% 20% 27% 20% 18% 20% 35% 21% 24% 20% 19% Somewhat unfavorable % 13% 15% 21% 16% 19% 13% 16% 16% 21% 14% 14% 18% 17% 15% 12% 16% 15% 22% Very unfavorable % 10% 72% 40% 12% 25% 69% 43% 30% 32% 32% 38% 45% 40% 21% 27% 28% 43% 44% Not sure % 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% 6% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 4% 1% 0%
25 Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix Page 25 Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following candidates for President? Barack Obama Base: Valid Cases Very favorable % 47% 6% 28% 53% 35% 8% 31% 26% 38% 31% 25% 22% 23% 67% 27% 24% 30% 31% Somewhat favorable % 26% 21% 21% 25% 28% 16% 22% 24% 19% 25% 24% 21% 22% 21% 28% 23% 24% 23% Somewhat unfavorable % 8% 20% 18% 10% 13% 20% 14% 15% 10% 15% 14% 22% 16% 5% 12% 15% 15% 13% Very unfavorable % 17% 52% 28% 9% 21% 54% 31% 29% 26% 24% 34% 33% 34% 3% 28% 32% 29% 33% Not sure % 2% 1% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 6% 7% 4% 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 6% 2% 0%
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