THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL

Transcription

1 THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL October 9, 2015 OBAMA APPROVAL RATINGS IN NH NO CHANGE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. UNH Survey Center 603/ DURHAM, NH President Barack Obama s job approval and personal favorability are unchanged in New Hampshire since July. However, his job approval is considerably better than George W. Bush s at this point in his second term, which is good news for Democrats heading into the 2016 presidential election. But a majority of New Hampshire residents think the country is headed in the wrong direction. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred and eighty-seven (587) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between September 24 and October 2, The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.0 percent. Included were five hundred and nineteen (519) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE = +/- 4.3%). Presidential Approval President Obama s overall job approval rating has stayed steady since July -- currently, 47% of New Hampshire adults say they approve of the job Obama is doing as president, 48% disapprove, and 5% are neutral. However Obama s popularity, which may be a factor in the 2016 presidential election, is considerably better than George W. Bush s at this point in his second term (29% approve, 66% disapprove). 100% 80% 70% 60% 30% 20% 10% 0% 66% 63% 61% 55% 48% 51% 29% 33% 21% 47% 46% 44% Barack Obama Approval, All NH Adults 55% 51% 53% 49% 52% 49% 53% 48% 49% 49% 49% 46% 46% 44% 46% 41% 49% 51% 53% 55% 55% 53% 52% 47% 47% 47% 44% 45% 43% 42% 44% 45% 45% 42% 39% 38% 38% 42% 48% 48% 47% 47% Approve Disapprove We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

2 Obama s approval numbers are high among Democrats (88%), low among Independents (32%) and very low among Republicans (7%). 100% 80% 70% 60% 30% 20% 10% 0% 97% 93% 91% Presidential Approval in NH by Party Identification (% Approve) 95% 84% 85% 86% 88% 92% 94% 85% 87% 88% 87% 91% 86% 88% 88% 81% 83% 78% 79% 81% 78% 74% 76% 73% 66% 63% 65% 61% 55% 55% 65% 48% 51% 51% 53% 62% 63% 46% 46% 44% 46% 47% 47% 49% 49% 48% 44% 45% 47% 41% 42% 39% 39% 38% 38% 42% 36% 45% 47% 26% 42% 46% 46% 48% 39% 39% 41% 35% 32% 34% 36% 41% 43% 38% 37% 24% 34% 15% 31% 12% 13% 13% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 9% 9% 10% 12% 29% 31% 32% 33% 32% 11% 12% 10% 11% 27% 4% 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 11% 7% 3% All NH Adults GOP IND DEM Obama s personal favorability rating is also unchanged since July. Obama is currently viewed favorably by 46% of New Hampshire adults, 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 8% are neutral or don t know enough about him to say. Obama s net favorability rating, the percentage having a favorable opinion minus the percentage having an unfavorable opinion, is +0%, which is up from -2% in July. Perceptions of Obama are very polarized, he is very popular among Democrats (net favorability rating of +81%), but is unpopular among Independents (-17% net), and very unpopular among Republicans (-86% net). 100% 80% 70% 60% 30% 20% 10% 0% 58% 53% 36% 31% 71% 16% 64% 56% 48% 53% 48% 47% 47% 44% 44% 41% 42% 35% 27% 30% Favorability Ratings Barack Obama 47% 47% 56% 48% 43% 45% 47% 51% 53% 48% 49% 51% 47% 46% 46% 46% 45% 46% 41% 42% 42% Favorable Unfavorable

3 Economic Approval Rating Despite signs that the U.S. economy is rebounding, Granite Staters continue to disapprove of Obama s handling of the economy. Only 46% of New Hampshire adults approve of how Obama is handling the economy, 49% disapprove, and 5% are neutral. As with other approval measures, there is a considerable partisan gap -- most Democrats (84%) approve of Obama s handling of the economy, while 33% of independents and only 9% of Republicans approve. 100% 80% 70% 60% 30% 20% 10% 0% 62% 58% 57% 51% 24% Presidential Approval: Handling the Economy 54% 54% 55% 57% 56% 58% 49% 53% 48% 48% 54% 56% 55% 52% 52% 52% 51% 49% 46% 47% 46% 47% 48% 46% 47% 46% 41% 43% 42% 43% 45% 41% 43% 42% 46% 37% 39% 39% 41% 45% 46% 35% 39% Approve Disapprove Foreign Affairs New Hampshire adults continue to disapprove of the Obama Administration s handling of foreign affairs. Less than half (41%) of New Hampshire adults say they approve of how President Obama is handling foreign affairs, 52% disapprove, and 7% are neutral. The same partisan divisions that characterize other ratings of the administration exist in evaluations of the administration s handling of foreign affairs -- 77% of Democrats, 29% of Independents and only 5% of Republicans approve of Obama s handling of foreign affairs. Presidential Approval: Foreign Affairs 100% 80% 70% 60% 30% 20% 10% 0% 65% 63% 53% 52% 53% 52% 52% 49% 49% 42% 44% 45% 46% 43% 26% 29% 15% 47% 49% 52% 54% 51% 54% 52% 49% 51% 55% 52% 47% 61% 57% 57% 53% 52% 46% 44% 43% 46% 37% 37% 42% 34% 38% 41% 41% 38% 43% 43% 39% 39% 33% Approve Disapprove

4 Health Care Reform Obama s signature legislative achievement, the Affordable Care Act, remains unpopular with Granite Staters. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 38% of New Hampshire adults favor the legislation, 46% oppose it, and 16% are neutral or don t know enough about it to say. 100% 80% 70% 60% 30% 20% 10% 0% 26% Favor / Oppose Health Care Reform Legislation 57% 49% 46% 49% 52% 52% 53% 52% 46% 46% 49% 45% 46% 49% 44% 47% 53% 51% 51% 52% 52% 55% 48% 46% 39% 38% 38% 35% 33% 35% 39% 36% 38% 43% 41% 34% 35% 34% 37% 39% 35% 38% 41% 38% 34% Favor Oppose `The Affordable Care Act remains popular among Democrats (72% favor), but unpopular among Independents (26%) and very unpopular among Republicans (6%). 100% 80% 70% 60% 30% 20% 10% 0% Favor Health Care Reform Legislation by Party Identification (% Favor) 78% 75% 74% 77% 68% 68% 70% 74% 77% 78% 74% 66% 68% 70% 70% 70% 70% 73% 71% 76% 72% 65% 62% 52% 39% 38% 38% 35% 33% 35% 39% 36% 38% 43% 41% 34% 35% 34% 37% 39% 35% 38% 41% 38% 34% 26% 37% 19% 33% 34% 28% 30% 15% 30% 25% 26% 24% 26% 26% 26% 28% 27% 32% 34% 26% 21% 20% 21% 22% 20% 7% 7% 6% 8% 10% 10% 11% 8% 3% 5% 7% 7% 8% 4% 4% 5% 7% 7% 6% 8% 8% 10% 5% 6% All Adults GOP Independent DEM

5 Right Direction Wrong Track New Hampshire residents remain pessimistic about the direction the country is headed. Currently, only 35% of New Hampshire adults think things in the U.S. are generally headed in the right direction, 55% think things are seriously off on the wrong track, and 9% are unsure. Optimism on the country s direction has decreased after an uptick in July. Democrats remain the most optimistic -- 66% believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, while only 22% of Independents and only 5% of Republicans share this view. 100% 80% 70% 60% 30% 20% 10% 0% US Heading in Right Direction or On Wrong Track Right Direction Wrong Track

6 Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred and eighty-seven (587) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between September 24 and October 2, The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.0 percent. Included were five hundred and nineteen (519) likely 2016 general election voters (MSE = +/- 4.3%). These MSE s have not been adjusted for design effect. The design effect for the survey is 1.1% and 1.1% for the sample of likely 2016 general election voters. The random sample used in the WMUR Granite State Poll was purchased from Marketing Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non-working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of time interviewers spend calling non-usable numbers. The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, age, and region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in crosstabulation tables as some respondents choose not to answer some questions. For more information about the methodology used in the WMUR Granite State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) or by at andrew.smith@unh.edu. Granite State Poll, Fall 2015 Demographics Sex N % Region N % Male % North Country 56 9% Female % Central/Lakes % Connecticut Valley 81 14% Age N % Mass Border % 18 to % Seacoast % 35 to % Manchester Area 84 14% 50 to % 65 and Over 99 18% Party Registration N % Democrat % Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared % High School or Less 91 16% Republican % Some College % College Graduate % Party Identification N % Post-Graduate % Democrat % Independent % Years Lived in NH N % Republican % 10 yrs. Or less 85 15% yrs % > 20 yrs %

7 Granite State Poll, Fall 2015 Demographics 2016 Likely Voters Sex N % Region N % Male % North Country 46 9% Female % Central/Lakes 96 18% Connecticut Valley 72 14% Age N % Mass Border % 18 to % Seacoast 96 18% 35 to % Manchester Area 71 14% 50 to % 65 and Over 93 19% Party Registration N % Democrat % Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared % High School or Less 70 14% Republican % Some College % College Graduate % Party Identification N % Post-Graduate % Democrat % Independent % Years Lived in NH N % Republican % 10 yrs. Or less 71 14% yrs % > 20 yrs %

8 Presidential Approval All Adults GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) Oct 15 47% 5% 48% (581) July 15 48% 5% 47% (532) May 15 8% 52% (566) Feb % 5% 53% (504) Oct % 7% 55% (678) Aug % 7% 55% (812) July 14 45% 6% (664) Apr % 9% 53% (502) Jan % 7% 51% (574) Oct % 7% 49% (657) July 13 49% 5% 45% (504) Apr % 6% 45% (501) Feb % 2% 44% (572) Oct % 3% 45% (589) Oct. 1, 12 55% 3% 42% (635) Sept % 4% 44% (635) Aug % 4% 49% (579) July 12 47% 5% 48% (517) Apr. 12 3% 47% (535) Feb % 6% 43% (524) Oct % 6% 53% (551) July 11 46% 6% 49% (512) Apr % 5% 52% (502) Feb % 4% 49% (519) Sept % 4% (514) July 10 51% 5% 44% (502) Apr. 10 4% 46% (506) Feb % 5% 47% (495) Oct % 5% (503) July 09 61% 6% 33% (556) Apr % 8% 29% (500) Feb % 14% 21% (614)

9 Favorability Rating President Barack Obama "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people who have been in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you don t know enough about him or her to say. President Barack Obama?" Favorable Neutral/DK Unfavorable NET (N=) Oct 15 46% 8% 46% 0% (584) July 15 47% 8% 45% +2% (530) May 15 42% 8% 51% -9% (565) Feb % 9% 49% -7% (508) Oct. 14 6% 53% -13% (679) July 14 48% 6% 46% +2% (668) Apr % 8% 51% -10% (506) Jan % 7% 47% -1% (582) Oct % 7% 44% +4% (660) July 13 48% 7% 45% +3% (515) Apr % 5% 43% +9% (499) Feb % 5% 41% +13% (579) Oct % 5% 41% +12% (589) Oct % 4% +16% (637) Aug % 6% 47% 0% (579) July 12 47% 7% 47% 0% (520) Apr % 5% 44% +7% (532) Feb % 7% +13% (527) Oct % 9% 47% -3% (553) July 11 48% 6% 45% +3% (514) Apr % 8% 48% -4% (503) Feb % 8% 44% 3% (515) Sept % 4% 48% -1% (515) July 10 51% 5% 42% +9% (504) Apr. 10 4% 44% +6% (510) Feb % 6% 41% +11% (496) Oct % 8% 35% +21% (502) July 09 62% 7% 30% +32% (557) Apr % 7% 27% +37% (503) Feb % 9% 16% +55% (619) Sep. '08 53% 9% 36% +17% (522) July '08 58% 10% 31% +27% (474)

10 Favor / Oppose Health Care Reform Legislation Passed in Congress Let me ask you a question about healthcare. The U.S. House and Senate passed legislation in March of 2010 that will overhaul the nation s health care system. Based on what you have seen or heard, do you favor or oppose the health care legislation that was passed in Congress, or don t you have an opinion? (ASKED IN FEB 10) Let me ask you a question about healthcare. The U.S. House and Senate have just passed legislation that would overhaul the nation s health care system. Based on what you have seen or heard, do you favor or oppose the health care legislation that is going through Congress, or don t you have an opinion? Favor Neutral/DK Oppose (N) Oct 15 38% 16% 46% (584) July 15 41% 11% 48% (527) May 15 34% 11% 55% (563) Feb % 10% 52% (509) Oct % 13% 52% (679) July 14 39% 10% 51% (667) Apr % 12% 51% (506) Jan % 13% 53% (581) Oct % 47% (659) July 13 35% 21% 44% (512) Apr % 17% 49% (504) Feb % 13% 46% (581) Oct % 12% 45% (590) July 12 38% 13% 49% (518) Apr % 18% 46% (534) Feb % 15% 46% (524) Oct % 13% 52% (554) July 11 33% 14% 53% (513) Apr % 12% 52% (504) Feb % 10% 52% (519) Sept % 13% 49% (513) July 10 39% 15% 46% (502) Apr % 49% (512) Feb % 16% 57% (498)

11 Presidential Approval Economy GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling THE ECONOMY? Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) Oct 15 46% 5% 49% (579) July 15 45% 4% 51% (530) May 15 41% 6% 52% (566) Feb % 4% (508) Oct % 6% 52% (676) July 14 43% 5% 52% (656) Apr % 6% 55% (503) Jan % 5% 56% (573) Oct % 5% 54% (648) July 13 45% 4% (506) Apr % 6% 48% (500) Feb % 5% 48% (574) Oct. 12 3% 48% (590) July 12 43% 4% 53% (517) Apr % 3% (536) Feb % 5% 49% (525) Oct % 5% 58% (551) July 11 4% 56% (511) Apr. 11 3% 57% (502) Feb % 3% 55% (518) Sept % 2% 54% (513) July 10 47% 3% (502) Apr % 3% (507) Feb % 4% 54% (493) Oct % 3% 46% (500) July 09 57% 4% 39% (556) Apr % 7% 35% (499) Feb % 14% 24% (614)

12 Presidential Approval Foreign Affairs GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling FOREIGN AFFAIRS? Approve Neutral Disapprove (N) Oct 15 41% 7% 52% (576) July 15 41% 6% 53% (526) May 15 33% 9% 57% (566) Feb % 6% 57% (501) Oct % 5% 61% (672) July 14 42% 6% 52% (660) Apr % 9% 55% (499) Jan % 12% 51% (573) Oct % 7% 47% (654) July 13 43% 8% 49% (498) Apr % 9% 39% (494) Feb % 6% 39% (571) Oct % 5% 43% (589) July 12 7% 43% (510) Apr % 6% (532) Feb % 9% 38% (524) Oct % 7% 44% (552) July 11 47% 7% 46% (508) Apr % 5% 52% (497) Feb % 5% 46% (515) Sept % 7% 45% (511) July 10 6% 44% (503) Apr % 6% 42% (504) Feb % 7% (494) Oct % 8% (499) July 09 63% 9% 29% (552) Apr % 8% 26% (496) Feb % 32% 15% (607)

13 Right Track - Wrong Track Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Don t Know (N=) Oct 15 35% 55% 9% (580) July 15 42% 51% 7% (528) May 15 31% 64% 5% (562) Feb % 4% (498) Oct % 58% 6% (677) July 14 35% 59% 6% (654) Apr % 62% 6% (501) Jan % 58% 8% (569) Oct % 67% 6% (647) July 13 39% 56% 5% (511) Apr % 6% (498) Feb % 49% 4% (573) Oct % 49% 3% (578) July 12 38% 57% 5% (512) Apr % 52% 6% (525) Feb % 54% 8% (514) Oct % 70% 8% (553) July 11 35% 59% 6% (507) Apr % 63% 5% (496) Feb % 54% 9% (513) Sept % 55% 7% (512) July 10 39% 55% 6% (491) Apr % 51% 4% (502) Feb % 54% 5% (484) Oct % 45% 9% (496) July 09 51% 43% 5% (555) Apr % 43% 7% (498) Feb % 51% 11% (610) Sep % 69% 10% (540) July '08 19% 73% 8% (508) Apr. '08 21% 74% 5% (487) Feb % 71% 7% (553) Sep % 62% 8% (505) July 07 34% 59% 6% (523) Apr % 55% 8% (510) Feb % 7% (516) Sept % 56% 10% (510) July 06 38% 51% 11% (496) Apr % 62% 8% (501) Feb % 7% (487) Oct % 55% 7% (498) July 05 47% 47% 6% (492) Apr % 43% 11% (487) Feb % 7% (535) Oct % 4% (574) July 04 48% 43% 10% (500) Apr % 48% 8% (535) Feb % 49% 8% (503) Oct % 43% 6% (487) June 03 56% 38% 5% (511)

14 Presidential Approval Rating - Overall Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) STATEWIDE 47% 5% 48% 581 Registered Democrat 2% 8% 128 Registered Undeclared 44% 5% 51% 224 Registered Republican 10% 1% 88% 116 Democrat 88% 3% 9% 234 Independent 32% 13% 55% 125 Republican 7% 1% 92% 193 Liberal 85% 1% 14% 142 Moderate 49% 5% 46% 237 Conservative 11% 4% 86% 134 Support Tea Party 12% 0% 88% 101 Neutral 27% 7% 65% 186 Oppose Tea Party 77% 3% 20% 251 Likely 2016 Voter 47% 4% 49% 517 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 46% 12% 43% 63 Union household 41% 7% 52% 69 Non-union 48% 4% 48% 494 Read Union Leader 35% 3% 62% 130 Read Boston Globe 69% 1% 29% 82 Read Local Newspapers 3% 47% 215 Watch WMUR 43% 4% 53% 319 Listen to NHPR 70% 3% 28% yrs or less in NH 52% 2% 46% to 20 years 49% 5% 46% 137 More than 20 years 46% 5% 49% to 34 49% 5% 45% to 49 48% 7% 45% to 64 44% 3% 53% and over 48% 2% 98 Male 41% 4% 54% 284 Female 53% 5% 42% 296 High school or less 37% 12% 52% 90 Some college 41% 6% 53% 141 College graduate 48% 2% 210 Post-graduate 61% 1% 38% 125 Attend services 1 or more/week 37% 2% 61% times a month 49% 3% 48% 59 Less often 45% 5% 156 Never 53% 6% 41% 226 North Country 44% 10% 46% 54 Central / Lakes 42% 3% 55% 101 Connecticut Valley 52% 5% 43% 80 Mass Border 44% 4% 52% 155 Seacoast 54% 4% 42% 106 Manchester Area 48% 5% 48% 84 First Cong. Dist 51% 3% 46% 284 Second Cong. Dist 44% 6% 51% 296

15 Favorability Rating - Barack Obama Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 46% 6% 46% 2% 584 Registered Democrat 89% 4% 6% 1% 128 Registered Undeclared 45% 7% 46% 2% 225 Registered Republican 8% 2% 0% 116 Democrat 87% 5% 6% 1% 235 Independent 33% 11% 5% 125 Republican 6% 2% 92% 0% 193 Liberal 83% 3% 14% 0% 142 Moderate 7% 42% 2% 237 Conservative 9% 2% 88% 1% 135 Support Tea Party 13% 1% 86% 0% 102 Neutral 25% 11% 62% 3% 187 Oppose Tea Party 77% 3% 19% 0% 251 Likely 2016 Voter 47% 4% 47% 2% 519 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 35% 18% 41% 5% 64 Union household 41% 8% 51% 0% 70 Non-union 46% 5% 46% 2% 496 Read Union Leader 36% 3% 61% 1% 130 Read Boston Globe 68% 4% 28% 0% 82 Read Local Newspapers 49% 8% 43% 0% 218 Watch WMUR 43% 4% 51% 1% 322 Listen to NHPR 69% 3% 27% 0% yrs or less in NH 51% 4% 45% 0% to 20 years 42% 11% 46% 2% 139 More than 20 years 47% 4% 46% 2% to 34 42% 12% 44% 2% to 49 46% 5% 46% 3% to 64 47% 3% 48% 1% and over 52% 1% 46% 0% 98 Male 6% 53% 1% 286 Female 52% 5% 3% 299 High school or less 32% 10% 53% 5% 90 Some college 38% 9% 52% 1% 143 College graduate 48% 4% 46% 2% 211 Post-graduate 63% 1% 36% 1% 125 Attend services 1 or more/week 1% 58% 1% times a month 46% 9% 45% 1% 58 Less often 43% 5% 2% 159 Never 51% 8% 38% 3% 227 North Country 46% 9% 42% 3% 56 Central / Lakes 41% 4% 55% 0% 103 Connecticut Valley 51% 4% 44% 2% 79 Mass Border 42% 7% 47% 4% 156 Seacoast 52% 5% 41% 2% 107 Manchester Area 47% 6% 47% 0% 84 First Cong. Dist 6% 42% 2% 286 Second Cong. Dist 43% 5% 2% 299

16 Presidential Approval Rating - Economy Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) STATEWIDE 46% 5% 49% 579 Registered Democrat 86% 2% 11% 127 Registered Undeclared 46% 6% 47% 222 Registered Republican 10% 1% 88% 116 Democrat 84% 2% 14% 233 Independent 33% 10% 57% 123 Republican 9% 5% 86% 194 Liberal 84% 2% 14% 141 Moderate 48% 6% 46% 235 Conservative 8% 4% 88% 135 Support Tea Party 12% 5% 83% 102 Neutral 24% 5% 71% 186 Oppose Tea Party 79% 4% 17% 249 Likely 2016 Voter 48% 4% 48% 514 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 29% 12% 58% 64 Union household 49% 6% 45% 69 Non-union 46% 4% 493 Read Union Leader 33% 2% 64% 130 Read Boston Globe 66% 1% 33% 82 Read Local Newspapers 48% 3% 49% 217 Watch WMUR 41% 3% 55% 320 Listen to NHPR 65% 4% 31% yrs or less in NH 44% 2% 54% to 20 years 41% 6% 53% 139 More than 20 years 5% 46% to 34 44% 6% 49% to 49 46% 7% 47% to 64 49% 1% and over 46% 5% 49% 98 Male 43% 5% 53% 283 Female 49% 5% 46% 297 High school or less 41% 9% 90 Some college 37% 3% 60% 141 College graduate 48% 4% 49% 210 Post-graduate 58% 5% 37% 124 Attend services 1 or more/week 38% 4% 58% times a month 44% 5% 51% 59 Less often 44% 5% 51% 156 Never 52% 5% 43% 225 North Country 48% 8% 44% 55 Central / Lakes 44% 5% 51% 101 Connecticut Valley 51% 2% 47% 77 Mass Border 41% 4% 55% 155 Seacoast 51% 8% 41% 107 Manchester Area 46% 3% 52% 83 First Cong. Dist 49% 5% 46% 284 Second Cong. Dist 43% 5% 52% 295

17 Presidential Approval Rating - Foreign Affairs Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=) STATEWIDE 41% 7% 52% 576 Registered Democrat 80% 9% 11% 126 Registered Undeclared 38% 8% 54% 224 Registered Republican 7% 0% 92% 116 Democrat 77% 8% 15% 230 Independent 29% 13% 58% 125 Republican 5% 1% 94% 193 Liberal 79% 4% 18% 140 Moderate 41% 10% 238 Conservative 8% 2% 91% 133 Support Tea Party 11% 0% 88% 102 Neutral 19% 9% 72% 186 Oppose Tea Party 69% 7% 24% 249 Likely 2016 Voter 41% 6% 53% 514 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 32% 19% 49% 61 Union household 37% 5% 58% 69 Non-union 41% 7% 52% 490 Read Union Leader 30% 4% 66% 130 Read Boston Globe 63% 6% 31% 82 Read Local Newspapers 43% 9% 48% 215 Watch WMUR 36% 6% 57% 318 Listen to NHPR 62% 7% 31% yrs or less in NH 46% 6% 48% to 20 years 41% 6% 53% 135 More than 20 years 8% 53% to 34 38% 12% to 49 41% 7% 52% to 64 41% 4% 55% and over 44% 7% 49% 99 Male 36% 6% 58% 281 Female 45% 8% 47% 295 High school or less 25% 18% 56% 89 Some college 34% 7% 59% 140 College graduate 41% 5% 54% 209 Post-graduate 58% 3% 125 Attend services 1 or more/week 32% 4% 64% times a month 42% 2% 56% 59 Less often 39% 7% 55% 155 Never 46% 10% 44% 223 North Country 39% 12% 49% 54 Central / Lakes 38% 6% 56% 101 Connecticut Valley 45% 11% 45% 80 Mass Border 37% 7% 56% 155 Seacoast 43% 3% 54% 102 Manchester Area 44% 7% 49% 84 First Cong. Dist 43% 4% 53% 281 Second Cong. Dist 39% 10% 51% 296

18 Favor / Oppose Health Care Legislation Passed in Congress Favor Neutral/DK Oppose (N=) STATEWIDE 38% 16% 46% 584 Registered Democrat 78% 10% 12% 128 Registered Undeclared 36% 15% 224 Registered Republican 8% 9% 82% 116 Democrat 72% 12% 16% 235 Independent 26% 24% 125 Republican 6% 12% 82% 194 Liberal 69% 13% 18% 142 Moderate 42% 17% 41% 238 Conservative 5% 11% 85% 135 Support Tea Party 12% 9% 79% 102 Neutral 15% 22% 64% 188 Oppose Tea Party 69% 10% 20% 251 Likely 2016 Voter 39% 13% 48% 518 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 27% 41% 31% 64 Union household 35% 17% 49% 70 Non-union 39% 15% 46% 497 Read Union Leader 28% 15% 57% 130 Read Boston Globe 58% 13% 30% 82 Read Local Newspapers 41% 14% 45% 217 Watch WMUR 35% 15% 322 Listen to NHPR 60% 11% 29% yrs or less in NH 38% 9% 53% to 20 years 36% 19% 46% 139 More than 20 years 16% 45% to 34 28% 27% 45% to 49 12% 49% to 64 44% 13% 44% and over 43% 10% 47% 99 Male 35% 17% 49% 285 Female 41% 15% 44% 299 High school or less 27% 30% 44% 91 Some college 31% 16% 53% 143 College graduate 38% 16% 45% 211 Post-graduate 55% 3% 42% 125 Attend services 1 or more/week 32% 13% 55% times a month 47% 10% 43% 59 Less often 39% 17% 44% 159 Never 38% 17% 45% 226 North Country 19% 41% 55 Central / Lakes 39% 12% 49% 103 Connecticut Valley 19% 41% 80 Mass Border 33% 14% 54% 155 Seacoast 45% 16% 39% 107 Manchester Area 35% 20% 45% 84 First Cong. Dist 39% 17% 44% 285 Second Cong. Dist 37% 15% 48% 299

19 U.S. Right Direction / Wrong Track Right Wrong Don't Direction Track Know (N=) STATEWIDE 35% 55% 9% 580 Registered Democrat 73% 20% 7% 126 Registered Undeclared 34% 57% 9% 221 Registered Republican 4% 86% 10% 116 Democrat 66% 25% 9% 232 Independent 22% 66% 12% 125 Republican 5% 88% 8% 193 Liberal 63% 27% 10% 142 Moderate 38% 53% 9% 234 Conservative 9% 88% 2% 134 Support Tea Party 6% 88% 6% 102 Neutral 20% 68% 12% 187 Oppose Tea Party 58% 33% 9% 248 Likely 2016 Voter 36% 54% 10% 513 Non-Likely 2016 Voter 28% 66% 6% 64 Union household 32% 62% 6% 70 Non-union 35% 55% 10% 493 Read Union Leader 27% 64% 9% 128 Read Boston Globe 49% 39% 12% 79 Read Local Newspapers 38% 55% 7% 214 Watch WMUR 32% 59% 9% 318 Listen to NHPR 42% 8% yrs or less in NH 35% 53% 12% to 20 years 33% 56% 11% 138 More than 20 years 36% 56% 8% to 34 29% 54% 17% to 49 38% 54% 8% to 64 32% 62% 6% and over 43% 53% 5% 98 Male 33% 59% 8% 284 Female 38% 52% 10% 296 High school or less 31% 63% 6% 91 Some college 28% 63% 9% 143 College graduate 34% 54% 12% 208 Post-graduate 47% 44% 8% 123 Attend services 1 or more/week 30% 64% 6% times a month 57% 3% 59 Less often 29% 62% 9% 161 Never 41% 47% 12% 224 North Country 27% 56% 17% 55 Central / Lakes 29% 62% 9% 102 Connecticut Valley 36% 58% 5% 80 Mass Border 34% 55% 10% 154 Seacoast 46% 43% 10% 104 Manchester Area 35% 60% 5% 84 First Cong. Dist 38% 51% 11% 282 Second Cong. Dist 33% 60% 8% 298