THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER

Transcription

1 THE WMUR GRANITE STATE POLL THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER October 8, 2014 SHAHEEN AND BROWN RACE REMAINS TIGHT By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Zachary S. Azem, M.A. UNH Survey Center 603/ DURHAM, NH With just weeks to go before the 2014 election, Senator Jeanne Shaheen continues to be locked in a tight race with former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Six hundred and eighty-one (681) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between September 29 and October 5, The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.8 percent. The sample included 532 likely voters (with a +/- 4.2 percent margin of sampling error) U.S. Senate Election Now that the September primary is over, New Hampshire likely voters are starting to lock in on who they will vote for in the U.S. Senate race. Currently, 47% of likely voters say they have definitely decided who to support, are leaning towards someone, and 43% are still trying to decide. 100% 90% 80% 70% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% NH 2014 Senate Election-- Decided On Vote 87% 81% 70% 69% 47% 27% 43% 17% 17% 7% 13% 14% 13% 9% 6% Oct '13 Jan '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Aug. '14 Oct. '14 Definitely Decided Leaning Toward Someone Still Trying To Decide We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

2 2014 Senate Election If the election were held today, 44% of likely voters say they would vote for Shaheen, 38% would vote for Brown, 1% would vote for someone else and 17% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward supporting, the race stands at 47% plan to vote for Shaheen, 41% for Brown, 1% would vote for someone else and remain undecided. Shaheen and Brown continue to have wide leads among their partisans (90% - 4% and 81% - 6% respectively), while Independents currently favor Shaheen over Brown by a small margin (46% - 35%). Shaheen s margin over Brown has increased since August, but still remains within the poll s margin of sampling error. 50% 47% US Senate - Shaheen vs. Brown * Including undecided, but leaning voters 45% 52% 46% 47% 40% 30% 37% 39% 40% 44% 41% 20% 0% Jan. '14* Apr. '14 July '14 Aug. '14 Oct. '14 * Shaheen Brown Undecided Who Will Win 2014 Senate Election? When asked which candidate they think will win the 2014 U.S. Senate election, 49% of likely voters think Shaheen will be reelected, only 31% think Brown will win, 1% think someone else will win and 18% are unsure. Most Democrats (73%) think Shaheen will win and a smaller majority of Republicans (55%) think Brown will win. The large majority of voters who support Shaheen (77%) think she will win while 64% of Brown supporters believe he will win. Of those who chose another candidate or are undecided, 40% think Shaheen will win and 25% think Brown will win. This measure of election races has been shown to be a more accurate predictor of the winner, but not the margin of victory. 100% US Senate - Who Will Win? - Likely Voters 90% 80% 70% 50% 49% 73% 47% 55% 40% 30% 20% 28% 31% 11% 22% 18% 16% 28% 16% 0% Shaheen Brown Don't Know NH Likely Voters (Oct. '14) Democrat Independent Republican

3 Favorability Ratings US Senate Candidates Shaheen continues to be popular in New Hampshire-- 50% of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Shaheen, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 6% are neutral and 9% don t know enough about her to say. Shaheen s net favorability rating, the percentage who have a favorable opinion of her minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is +14%, which is up from +12% in August. Shaheen is very popular among Democrats (net +83%), and very unpopular among Republicans (-47%), while Independents are divided on her (+3%). Shaheen s net favorability among 2014 likely voters is +13%. 100% 90% 80% 70% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 56% 57% 56% 56% 58% 59% 59% 56% 56% 52% 47% 47% 50% 51% 52% 48% 47% 49% 48% 48% 52% 53% 53% 53% 57% 57% 50% 49% 48% 50% 33% 29% 24% 25% 23% 40% Favorability Ratings Jeanne Shaheen 37% 36% 36% 39% 39% 35% 35% 36% 36% 32% 33% 29% 28% 28% 31% 29% 22% 23% 23% 22% 34% 35% 36% 36% 29% Sep. '07 Sep. '08 Oct. '09 Sept. '10 Oct. '11 Oct. '12 Oct. '13 Oct. '14 Favorable Unfavorable While Brown has very high name recognition in the state, he has become increasingly unpopular. Currently, only 29% of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Brown, 48% have an unfavorable opinion, 5% are neutral and 18% don t know enough to say. His net favorability is -19%, which is down significantly from -2% in August. Brown remains very popular among Republicans (net +41%), but is very unpopular among Independents (-31%) and very unpopular among Democrats (net -74%). Brown s net favorability among 2014 likely voters is -18%. 100% 90% 80% 70% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% Favorability Ratings - Scott Brown 48% 38% 39% 40% 38% 27% 29% 31% 36% 29% Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Aug. '14 Oct. '14 Favorable Unfavorable

4 Favorability Ratings Senator Kelly Ayotte New Hampshire s junior senator, Republican Kelly Ayotte, continues to be popular in the state. Currently, 44% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, 27% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 7% are neutral and 22% don t know enough about her to say. Ayotte s net favorability rating is +17%, which is down from +25% in July. She remains very popular among Republicans (net favorability rating of +58%), and is somewhat popular among independents (+11%) and unpopular among Democrats (-21%). 100% 90% 80% 70% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 51% 53% 49% 51% 45% 45% 47% 50% 37% 38% 38% 41% 42% 43% 44% 41% 41% 43% 49% 50% 44% 36% 8% 8% 12% 13% June Oct. Feb. Apr. '09 '09 '10 '10 27% 29% 20% 25% 25% 24% 26% 29% 25% 32% 28% 25% 32% 31% 30% 28% 25% 27% July '10 Sept. '10 Feb. '11 Favorability Ratings Kelly Ayotte Apr. '11 July '11 Oct. '11 Feb. '12 Apr. '12 Aug. '12 Oct. '12 Feb. '13 Apr. '13 July '13 Oct. '13 Jan. '14 Apr. '14 July '14 Oct. '14 Favorable Unfavorable

5 Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Six hundred and eighty-one (681) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between September 29 and October 5, The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.8 percent. The sample included 532 likely voters (with a +/- 4.2 percent margin of sampling error). The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, age, and region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may sum to just above or below 100%. Respondent numbers in each demographic may not equal the total respondent number due to respondents choosing not to answer some demographic questions. Granite State Poll, Fall 2014 Demographics Sex N % Region N % Male % North Country 52 8% Female % Central/Lakes % Connecticut Valley 98 14% Age N % Mass Border % 18 to % Seacoast % 35 to % Manchester Area % 50 to % 65 and Over % Party Registration N % Democrat % Highest Level of Education N % Undeclared % High School or Less % Republican % Some College % College Graduate % Party Identification N % Post-Graduate % Democrat % Independent % Years Lived in NH N % Republican % 10 yrs. or less % yrs % > 20 yrs %

6 Firmness of NH Senate Vote Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire Senate election in 2014 are you leaning toward someone or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? Oct. 13 Jan. 14 Apr. 14 July 14 Aug. 14 Oct. 14 Definitely Decided 6% 17% 17% 27% 47% Leaning Toward Someone 7% 9% 13% 14% 13% Still Trying to Decide 87% 81% 70% 69% 43% N= (504) (457) (378) (498) (609) (528) US Senate Brown vs. Shaheen Thinking about the senate election in November, will you vote for Scott Brown, the Republican Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat or haven t you decided yet? ROTATE CANDIDATES Jan. 14 Apr. 14 July 14 Aug. 14 Oct. 14 Brown 37% 39% 38% 44% 38% Shaheen 47% 45% 50% 46% 44% Other 3% 2% 0% 1% 1% Don t know / undecided 14% 14% 12% 9% 17% (N=) (454) (387) (502) (600) (520) With Leaners Would you say you are leaning towards Scott Brown, the Republican or Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat? ROTATE CANDIDATES July 14 Oct. 14 Brown 40% 41% Shaheen 52% 47% Other 1% 1% Don t know / undecided 7% (N=) (502) (519) Favorability Rating Scott Brown Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown? Statewide Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know Net (N) Oct % 5% 48% 18% -19% (681) Aug % 8% 38% 18% -2% (827) July 14 31% 8% 40% 21% -9% (666) Apr % 11% 39% 21% - (507) Jan % 8% 38% 27% -11% (581)

7 Favorability Rating Senator Jeanne Shaheen "Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Senator (Former Governor) Jeanne Shaheen?" Statewide Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know Net (N) Oct % 6% 36% 9% +14% (680) Aug % 6% 36% +12% (826) July 14 57% 5% 29% 9% +28% (668) Apr % 7% 35% 9% +14% (505) Jan % 7% 34% 9% +16% (581) Oct % 6% 22% 15% +35% (662) July 13 53% 8% 23% 16% +30% (512) Apr % 6% 23% 12% +36% (504) Feb % 9% 22% 11% +37% (580) Oct % 4% 29% 11% +27% (588) Aug % 4% 31% 9% +25% (580) Apr % 6% 28% 8% +30% (533) Feb % 7% 28% 12% +25% (527) Oct % 9% 29% 9% +24% (554) July 11 52% 7% 33% 8% +19% (511) Apr % 7% 36% 9% +12% (503) Feb % 9% 36% 7% +12% (519) Sept % 5% 35% 11% +14% (515) July 10 52% 6% 35% 8% +17% (503) Apr % 6% 39% 8% +8% (511) Feb % 5% 39% 8% +9% (496) Oct % 5% 36% 7% +15% (502) Jun % 6% 36% 8% +14% (557) Apr % 7% 37% 9% + (503) Feb % 7% 32% 5% +24% (617) Sep % 5% 40% 8% +7% (522) July 08 53% 9% 31% 6% +22% (472) Apr % 29% 5% +27% (500) Feb % 13% 23% 7% +34% (555) Sept % 11% 25% 8% +31% (506) July 07 9% 24% 8% +36% (520)

8 Favorability Rating Senator Kelly Ayotte Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person - or if you have never heard of him or her. Senator (Former New Hampshire Attorney General) Kelly Ayotte? Statewide Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know Net (N) Oct % 7% 27% 22% +17% (679) July 14 50% 8% 25% 17% +25% (668) Apr % 9% 28% 15% +21% (505) Jan % 30% 18% +13% (582) Oct % 8% 31% 21% + (662) July 13 41% 8% 32% 19% +9% (512) Apr % 9% 25% 16% +25% (505) Feb % 7% 28% 14% +23% (579) Oct % 5% 32% 19% +12% (590) Aug % 5% 25% 18% +28% (577) Apr % 5% 29% 22% +14% (531) Feb % 9% 26% 23% +16% (527) Oct % 24% 18% +23% (554) July 11 45% 12% 25% 18% +20% (514) Apr % 8% 25% 19% +24% (501) Feb % 8% 20% 21% +31% (520) Sept % 11% 29% 19% +12% (515) July 10 36% 7% 27% 30% +9% (504) Apr % 7% 13% 41% +25% (508) Feb % 6% 12% 44% +26% (497) Oct % 6% 8% 49% +29% (501) Jun % 7% 8% 40% +37% (556)

9 Favorability Rating Senator Jeanne Shaheen Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 50% 6% 36% 9% 680 Democrat 87% 1% 4% 8% 259 Independent 40% 12% 37% 12% 147 Republican 20% 7% 67% 6% 260 Liberal 83% 2% 11% 4% 171 Moderate 51% 7% 31% 11% 259 Conservative 20% 8% 64% 9% 190 Support Tea Party 16% 5% 72% 7% 126 Neutral 42% 8% 38% 12% 258 Oppose Tea Party 77% 2% 16% 5% 260 Approve of Obama 87% 0% 7% 5% 255 Neutral 69% 15% 9% 7% 51 Disapprove of Obama 21% 9% 59% 11% 371 Likely Voter 51% 5% 38% 5% 531 Non-Likely Voter 43% 9% 26% 21% 146 Union household 67% 1% 29% 2% 85 Non-union 48% 6% 36% 9% 587 Read Union Leader 43% 4% 48% 5% 172 Read Boston Globe 54% 2% 38% 6% 73 Watch WMUR 55% 6% 33% 5% 396 Listen to NHPR 65% 3% 27% 5% yrs or less in NH 45% 5% 35% 15% to 20 years 52% 5% 35% 9% 145 More than 20 years 52% 7% 36% 6% to 34 51% 8% 29% 12% to 49 48% 9% 34% to 64 50% 3% 43% 5% and over 54% 3% 36% 7% 121 Male 43% 7% 42% 9% 334 Female 56% 5% 30% 9% 345 High school or less 26% 8% 43% 24% 116 Some college 45% 9% 40% 6% 169 College graduate 59% 4% 31% 6% 249 Post-graduate 62% 3% 31% 4% 134 Attend services 1 or more/week 44% 3% 42% times a month 47% 5% 39% 9% 70 Less often 55% 7% 33% 6% 185 Never 52% 7% 31% 11% 247 North Country 44% 1% 53% 2% 52 Central / Lakes 57% 1% 36% 6% 112 Connecticut Valley 47% 13% 31% 9% 97 Mass Border 47% 6% 39% 8% 179 Seacoast 52% 5% 28% 14% 113 Manchester Area 50% 7% 34% 9% 127 First Cong. Dist 51% 6% 33% 341 Second Cong. Dist 48% 6% 38% 7% 339

10 Favorability Rating Senator Kelly Ayotte Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 44% 7% 27% 22% 679 Democrat 27% 6% 48% 19% 259 Independent 32% 12% 21% 35% 147 Republican 68% 6% 16% 260 Liberal 22% 4% 52% 22% 171 Moderate 45% 11% 25% 19% 259 Conservative 63% 5% 13% 19% 190 Support Tea Party 65% 8% 11% 16% 126 Neutral 50% 6% 15% 29% 258 Oppose Tea Party 28% 7% 50% 15% 260 Approve of Obama 25% 8% 48% 19% 255 Neutral 33% 13% 17% 38% 51 Disapprove of Obama 59% 6% 13% 22% 371 Likely Voter 47% 7% 32% 14% 531 Non-Likely Voter 31% 9% 9% 50% 146 Union household 46% 6% 43% 5% 85 Non-union 43% 8% 24% 24% 586 Read Union Leader 57% 6% 27% 9% 172 Read Boston Globe 42% 4% 42% 13% 73 Watch WMUR 46% 7% 30% 17% 396 Listen to NHPR 35% 4% 51% yrs or less in NH 47% 5% 18% 29% to 20 years 42% 8% 31% 20% 145 More than 20 years 44% 8% 28% 20% to 34 29% 21% 40% to 49 46% 6% 25% 23% to 64 50% 5% 33% 11% and over 50% 8% 31% 11% 121 Male 46% 9% 21% 24% 334 Female 42% 5% 32% 20% 345 High school or less 36% 9% 20% 36% 116 Some college 48% 8% 22% 22% 169 College graduate 47% 7% 26% 20% 249 Post-graduate 38% 6% 43% 13% 134 Attend services 1 or more/week 54% 6% 21% 20% times a month 51% 9% 24% 16% 70 Less often 52% 6% 27% 15% 185 Never 29% 8% 32% 31% 247 North Country 40% 4% 35% 21% 52 Central / Lakes 52% 3% 33% 12% 112 Connecticut Valley 29% 12% 40% 19% 97 Mass Border 52% 11% 20% 17% 178 Seacoast 35% 6% 22% 36% 113 Manchester Area 47% 6% 21% 26% 127 First Cong. Dist 43% 7% 25% 26% 341 Second Cong. Dist 45% 8% 29% 18% 339

11 Favorability Rating Scott Brown Favorable Neutral Unfavorable Don t Know (N) STATEWIDE 29% 5% 48% 18% 681 Democrat 5% 2% 79% 14% 259 Independent 18% 11% 49% 22% 147 Republican 58% 5% 17% 20% 261 Liberal 12% 3% 69% 16% 171 Moderate 27% 5% 54% 14% 259 Conservative 49% 6% 23% 22% 191 Support Tea Party 56% 4% 22% 18% 126 Neutral 29% 6% 37% 28% 258 Oppose Tea Party 16% 3% 74% 7% 261 Approve of Obama 9% 3% 80% 8% 255 Neutral 12% 20% 25% 42% 51 Disapprove of Obama 45% 5% 28% 22% 372 Likely Voter 32% 5% 50% 12% 532 Non-Likely Voter 15% 7% 37% 41% 146 Union household 19% 5% 68% 8% 85 Non-union 30% 5% 45% 20% 588 Read Union Leader 35% 4% 48% 13% 172 Read Boston Globe 32% 2% 63% 4% 73 Watch WMUR 29% 5% 49% 17% 396 Listen to NHPR 22% 3% 63% 12% yrs or less in NH 31% 3% 39% 27% to 20 years 29% 6% 45% 20% 145 More than 20 years 28% 5% 51% 16% to 34 21% 3% 44% 32% to 49 29% 6% 45% 20% to 64 33% 6% 52% 9% and over 33% 5% 52% 123 Male 33% 5% 44% 19% 336 Female 25% 5% 52% 18% 345 High school or less 30% 32% 28% 116 Some college 27% 4% 45% 24% 169 College graduate 30% 3% 53% 13% 249 Post-graduate 27% 5% 56% 12% 135 Attend services 1 or more/week 32% 5% 49% 14% times a month 34% 5% 41% 20% 70 Less often 34% 4% 45% 16% 186 Never 21% 5% 51% 23% 247 North Country 18% 54% 17% 52 Central / Lakes 28% 2% 45% 25% 112 Connecticut Valley 24% 5% 50% 20% 98 Mass Border 37% 6% 46% 11% 178 Seacoast 22% 6% 52% 20% 113 Manchester Area 31% 4% 44% 20% 127 First Cong. Dist 25% 6% 52% 18% 341 Second Cong. Dist 33% 5% 44% 19% 340

12 Firmness of choice for New Hampshire Senate Definitely Leaning Toward Still Trying Decided Someone To Decide (N=) STATEWIDE 47% 43% 528 Democrat 52% 38% 217 Independent 25% 8% 66% 84 Republican 50% 11% 39% 222 Liberal 56% 11% 33% 129 Moderate 46% 8% 46% 207 Conservative 42% 9% 49% 162 Support Tea Party 54% 13% 34% 97 Neutral 31% 9% 186 Oppose Tea Party 56% 34% 230 Approve of Obama 56% 12% 32% 201 Neutral 17% 26% 57% 26 Disapprove of Obama 43% 8% 49% 300 Union household 52% 38% 76 Non-union 46% 44% 446 Read Union Leader 46% 8% 46% 153 Read Boston Globe 54% 9% 37% 71 Watch WMUR 48% 8% 44% 319 Listen to NHPR 54% 13% 33% yrs or less in NH 45% 8% 47% to 20 years 38% 18% 44% 113 More than 20 years 50% 8% 41% to 34 26% 12% 62% to 49 45% 3% 52% to 64 52% 15% 33% and over 12% 28% 109 Male 52% 38% 257 Female 42% 11% 48% 271 High school or less 37% 53% 63 Some college 40% 8% 52% 130 College graduate 46% 12% 42% 207 Post-graduate 61% 9% 30% 121 Attend services 1 or more/week 48% 9% 43% times a month 46% 5% 49% 60 Less often 47% 17% 36% 146 Never 44% 6% 50% 171 North Country 42% 9% 49% 39 Central / Lakes 48% 9% 42% 87 Connecticut Valley 48% 2% 50% 81 Mass Border 50% 12% 38% 139 Seacoast 44% 11% 45% 81 Manchester Area 45% 15% 40% 101 First Cong. Dist 46% 12% 42% 256 Second Cong. Dist 48% 8% 44% 271

13 US Senate Scott Brown vs. Jeanne Shaheen Likely Voters Brown Shaheen Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 38% 44% 1% 17% 520 Democrat 3% 87% 1% 9% 215 Independent 29% 36% 3% 32% 78 Republican 76% 5% 1% 18% 221 Liberal 11% 79% 0% 127 Moderate 34% 48% 0% 18% 204 Conservative 65% 11% 3% 21% 162 Support Tea Party 81% 3% 3% 12% 96 Neutral 45% 31% 1% 23% 184 Oppose Tea Party 14% 73% 0% 13% 226 Approve of Obama 4% 86% 1% 9% 198 Neutral 21% 38% 0% 41% 26 Disapprove of Obama 63% 16% 2% 20% 295 Definitely Decided 47% 51% 1% 1% 242 Leaning Toward Someone 46% 47% 0% 8% 54 Still Trying To Decide 28% 35% 2% 36% 222 Union household 24% 64% 1% 11% 76 Non-union 41% 40% 1% 18% 439 Read Union Leader 50% 36% 2% 12% 150 Read Boston Globe 28% 51% 2% 19% 69 Watch WMUR 36% 47% 1% 16% 316 Listen to NHPR 27% 63% 2% 8% yrs or less in NH 40% 41% 0% 19% to 20 years 43% 39% 2% 16% 113 More than 20 years 35% 47% 1% 17% to 34 33% 37% 0% 30% to 49 39% 45% 2% 13% to 64 41% 45% 2% 13% and over 37% 50% 1% 12% 107 Male 44% 38% 1% 17% 250 Female 33% 48% 1% 17% 270 High school or less 44% 31% 2% 24% 61 Some college 46% 31% 3% 21% 127 College graduate 36% 47% 1% 16% 206 Post-graduate 30% 59% 0% 11% 120 Attend services 1 or more/week 39% 35% 4% 22% times a month 45% 31% 0% 23% 60 Less often 43% 46% 0% 11% 145 Never 29% 54% 1% 16% 170 North Country 43% 41% 0% 16% 39 Central / Lakes 37% 50% 0% 13% 88 Connecticut Valley 36% 35% 2% 27% 76 Mass Border 46% 39% 1% 14% 139 Seacoast 24% 48% 4% 24% 79 Manchester Area 40% 49% 1% 11% 99 First Cong. Dist 35% 49% 2% 14% 253 Second Cong. Dist 41% 38% 1% 20% 266

14 US Senate Scott Brown vs. Jeanne Shaheen Likely Voters With Leaners Brown Shaheen Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 41% 47% 1% 519 Democrat 4% 90% 1% 6% 215 Independent 35% 46% 3% 16% 78 Republican 81% 6% 2% 11% 220 Liberal 12% 82% 0% 6% 127 Moderate 36% 54% 0% 9% 204 Conservative 71% 12% 3% 14% 161 Support Tea Party 87% 3% 3% 6% 96 Neutral 48% 34% 1% 16% 184 Oppose Tea Party 15% 78% 1% 6% 226 Approve of Obama 4% 90% 1% 5% 198 Neutral 24% 50% 0% 27% 26 Disapprove of Obama 68% 18% 2% 12% 295 Definitely Decided 47% 51% 1% 1% 242 Leaning Toward Someone 47% 47% 0% 6% 54 Still Trying To Decide 35% 42% 2% 21% 221 Union household 29% 65% 1% 5% 75 Non-union 44% 44% 1% 11% 439 Read Union Leader 55% 37% 2% 7% 150 Read Boston Globe 30% 53% 2% 15% 69 Watch WMUR 39% 51% 1% 9% 315 Listen to NHPR 29% 65% 2% 4% yrs or less in NH 40% 43% 0% 17% to 20 years 45% 42% 2% 11% 113 More than 20 years 39% 51% 1% 8% to 34 36% 39% 0% 24% to 49 41% 50% 2% 6% to 64 45% 47% 2% 7% and over 40% 54% 1% 5% 106 Male 48% 39% 1% 11% 249 Female 35% 54% 1% 9% 269 High school or less 46% 34% 2% 18% 61 Some college 49% 35% 3% 13% 127 College graduate 41% 48% 1% 205 Post-graduate 31% 64% 1% 4% 120 Attend services 1 or more/week 43% 40% 4% 13% times a month 50% 38% 0% 12% 60 Less often 46% 49% 0% 5% 144 Never 33% 55% 1% 11% 170 North Country 47% 42% 0% 11% 39 Central / Lakes 42% 51% 0% 7% 87 Connecticut Valley 43% 39% 2% 17% 76 Mass Border 47% 44% 1% 7% 138 Seacoast 27% 50% 4% 19% 79 Manchester Area 41% 53% 1% 5% 99 First Cong. Dist 37% 53% 2% 8% 252 Second Cong. Dist 46% 42% 1% 12% 266

15 US Senate Scott Brown vs. Jeanne Shaheen Likely Voters Who Will Win? Brown Shaheen Other DK (N) STATEWIDE 31% 49% 1% 18% 528 Democrat 11% 73% 0% 16% 216 Independent 22% 47% 3% 28% 84 Republican 55% 28% 1% 16% 223 Liberal 13% 71% 0% 16% 128 Moderate 28% 54% 0% 18% 208 Conservative 51% 28% 2% 19% 162 Support Tea Party 21% 3% 15% 98 Neutral 35% 43% 1% 22% 186 Oppose Tea Party 15% 67% 0% 18% 228 Approve of Obama 7% 73% 0% 20% 200 Neutral 16% 36% 1% 47% 26 Disapprove of Obama 49% 35% 1% 15% 301 Definitely Decided 34% 51% 1% 15% 245 Leaning Toward Someone 24% 45% 1% 29% 54 Still Trying To Decide 31% 49% 1% 19% 226 Brown Supporter 64% 18% 1% 17% 215 Shaheen Supporter 5% 77% 0% 17% 244 Other/Undecided 25% 40% 5% 30% 60 Read Union Leader 35% 49% 2% 15% 153 Read Boston Globe 27% 58% 1% 15% 71 Watch WMUR 30% 54% 1% 15% 318 Listen to NHPR 24% 1% 15% yrs or less in NH 39% 43% 0% 18% to 20 years 39% 40% 0% 21% 113 More than 20 years 26% 55% 2% 17% to 34 35% 46% 0% 19% to 49 31% 56% 1% 12% to 64 33% 47% 1% 19% and over 26% 49% 1% 24% 110 Male 36% 44% 1% 18% 255 Female 27% 54% 0% 19% 272 High school or less 42% 42% 2% 15% 63 Some college 37% 49% 2% 13% 128 College graduate 34% 49% 0% 17% 208 Post-graduate 17% 55% 0% 28% 121 Attend services 1 or more/week 26% 53% 3% 17% times a month 41% 38% 0% 22% 60 Less often 35% 48% 0% 17% 146 Never 29% 53% 0% 18% 170 North Country 33% 48% 0% 20% 39 Central / Lakes 25% 55% 1% 18% 88 Connecticut Valley 25% 50% 2% 23% 79 Mass Border 41% 40% 0% 19% 140 Seacoast 34% 49% 2% 15% 81 Manchester Area 25% 57% 1% 17% 101 First Cong. Dist 31% 51% 1% 17% 257 Second Cong. Dist 32% 47% 1% 20% 271