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1 Copyright 2014 April 24-30, Interviews Michigan HAI3237 Margin of Error: +/- 4.4% Hello, my name is from HAI, a national research firm. [IF LANDLINE] We're conducting a survey in Michigan to get people's opinions on important issues. This number was selected at random and according to the research procedure, I would like to speak to the [ALTERNATE: YOUNGEST/OLDEST] [ALTERNATE: MAN/WOMAN] at this address who is registered to vote. [IF CELL PHONE] We're conducting a survey of cell phone users in Michigan to get people's opinions on important issues. Since you are on a cell phone, I can call you back if you are driving or doing anything else that requires your full attention. Can you talk safely and privately now? [IF YES, CONTINUE. IF NO, SCHEDULE CALLBACK] RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS QB. Are you officially registered to vote in that county in Michigan? Yes % No/(Don t know) > TERMINATE QC. In November, elections will be held for Governor, U.S. Senate, Congress, and other offices. But there is no election for President. Although it is a while away, how likely are you to vote in that election: will you definitely vote; probably but not certainly vote in it; are the chances about that you will vote, or is it likely that you will not vote in November? Q1. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as a Democrat, an Independent or a Republican? ASK IF DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN Would you call yourself a strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN] or a not very strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN]? Definitely vote... 76% Probably vote All other responses----> TERMINATE Strong Democrat... 22% Weak Democrat Independent Weak Republican Strong Republican VOL: (Green Party)... - VOL: (Other/Don't know) TOTAL DEMOCRAT... 34% TOTAL INDEPENDENT TOTAL REPUBLICAN RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS Q2. Now I'd like to ask your impressions of some people in public life. As I read each name, tell me whether your impression of that person is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don't recognize a name, just say so. Here's the first one: [READ ITEM] Have you heard of that person? [IF YES] Is your impression of that person very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable? FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE (Can t Never RECOGNITION TOTAL ROTATE Very Some (Mixed) Some Very rate) heard Effective Total Fav Unfav Barack Obama... 27% % 100% 47% 47 Terri Lynn Land... 9% % 63% 29% 18 Gary Peters... 8% % 66% 26% 21 Q3. In the election for Governor later this year, if the candidates are [ROTATE:] Mark Schauer, the Democrat, AND Rick Snyder, the Republican, for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK] Who would you lean toward supporting if the election were held today? Likely Definite Schauer... 36% 36% (Lean Schauer) Snyder (Lean Snyder) VOL: (Don't know) As you may know, Carl Levin is retiring this year, and will not seek another term in the U.S. Senate. TOTAL SCHAUER... 37% 38% TOTAL SNYDER Q4. In the election for U.S. Senate, if the candidates are [ROTATE:] Gary Peters, the Democrat, AND Terri Lynn Land, the Republican, for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK] Who would you lean toward supporting if the election were held today? Likely Definite Peters... 40% 42% (Lean Peters) Land (Lean Land) VOL: (Don't know) TOTAL PETERS... 42% 43% TOTAL LAND
2 Hickman Analytics, Inc. HAI3237 Michigan Page 2/3 Now for a few questions on other issues. Q5. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose oil and natural gas extraction that uses hydraulic fracturing, sometimes known as fracking? SUPPORT: Strongly... 19% SUPPORT: Somewhat OPPOSE: Somewhat OPPOSE: Strongly VOL: (Don't know) TOTAL SUPPORT... 40% TOTAL OPPOSE Q6. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska to bring oil from Canada and the northern U.S. to refineries in Texas? SUPPORT: Strongly... 31% SUPPORT: Somewhat OPPOSE: Somewhat... 9 OPPOSE: Strongly VOL: (Don't know) TOTAL SUPPORT... 60% TOTAL OPPOSE As you may have heard, after five years of studying the Keystone XL pipeline, the Obama administration recently announced that it will delay a final decision, possibly until after the elections this fall. Q7. The administration says it needs more time to gather information about the legal status and environmental impact of the pipeline. Pipeline supporters in both parties say the delay is a political favor to Obama s liberal allies that will cost the country jobs and energy independence. How about you, [ROTATE] Do you think the delay is necessary to gather more information, OR... 30% Do you think the delay is mostly about politics? VOL: (Don't know) Q8. For this question, assume that President Obama delays making a decision on the Keystone XL pipeline until after the election. Would Obama delaying a decision on the Keystone XL pipeline make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for Gary Peters for U.S. Senate? MORE LIKELY: Much... 10% MORE LIKELY: Somewhat LESS LIKELY: Somewhat LESS LIKELY: Much VOL: (No difference) VOL: (Don't know) TOTAL MORE LIKELY... 23% TOTAL LESS LIKELY ASK IF SUPPORT [N = 301, MoE = 5.6%] Q9. And, assume that President Obama denies the permit to construct the Keystone XL pipeline. Would Obama denying the permit to construct the Keystone XL pipeline make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for Gary Peters for U.S. Senate? MORE LIKELY: Much... 8% MORE LIKELY: Somewhat LESS LIKELY: Somewhat LESS LIKELY: Much VOL: (No difference) VOL: (Don't know) TOTAL MORE LIKELY... 21% TOTAL LESS LIKELY RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS Q10. Looking ahead, how important are energy issues, including the Keystone XL pipeline, in terms of how you will vote in this year s election? Are they very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all in determining how you will vote? Very important... 28% Somewhat important Not very important Not important at all VOL: (Depends)... 1 VOL: (Don't know)... 3 TOTAL IMPORTANT... 71% TOTAL NOT IMPORTANT Now I would like to ask you a few final questions for statistical purposes only. D100. Sex. Male... 48% Female D101. What is your age? % VOL: (Refused)... 1
3 Hickman Analytics, Inc. HAI3237 Michigan Page 3/3 D105. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or conservative? Liberal... 16% Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Conservative VOL: (Don t know)... 6 TOTAL LIBERAL... 29% TOTAL CONSERVATIVE D510. Do you have a landline telephone? Yes... 66% No VOL: (Don't know/not sure)... 1 D511. Do you have a mobile telephone? Yes... 90% No VOL: (Don't know/not sure)... * D512. Would you say you mainly use your landline telephone, mainly use your mobile phone, or do you use both equally? Landline only... 10% Landline mostly Both Cell mostly Cell only VOL: (Don't know)... * TOTAL LANDLINE... 25% TOTAL CELL D300. And just to make sure we have a representative sample of voters, could you please tell me your race? [IF NECESSARY] Well, most people consider themselves black or white? Black... 12% White VOL: (Other)... 2 VOL: (Don t know/refused)... 3 D301. Do you consider yourself a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking American? Yes... 4% No VOL: (Don't know/refused)... 2 Thank you for taking the time to complete this interview.
4 Personal popularity of U.S. Senate candidates Gary Peters Terri Lynn Land Total Total CR/ Net Total Total CR/ Net Total Fav Unfav NH Fav Fav Unfav NH Fav Total recognition Gary Terri Lynn Peters Land Effective recognition Gary Terri Lynn Peters Land TOTAL % % % 63% 48% 49% Definite voters % % % 68% 53% 54% Wayne 73 36% % % 65% 65% 53% Oakland 72 36% % % 67% 69% 49% Rest of Detroit % % % 54% 53% 38% All of Detroit % % % 61% 61% 46% Grand Rapids % % % 66% 33% 53% Flint 58 15% % % 68% 30% 48% Rest of state 84 23% % % 63% 41% 51% White % % % 65% 46% 49% Other 84 45% % % 56% 55% 46% Democrat % % % 65% 52% 52% Republican % % % 64% 47% 46% Others % % % 62% 45% 47% Male % % % 65% 50% 49% Female % % % 64% 43% 49% % % % 50% 27% 37% % % % 70% 47% 55% % % % 66% 53% 49% Liberal % % % 65% 46% 50% Conservative % % % 68% 48% 52% Other % % % 60% 43% 46% PETERS: Rate favorably % % % 74% 100% 67% PETERS: Rate not favorably 110 0% % % 83% 100% 71% LAND: Rate favorably % % % 100% 61% 100% LAND: Rate not favorably % % % 100% 77% 100% Can rate both % % % 100% 100% 100% SENATE VOTE Peters % % % 63% 61% 52% Land 185 8% % % 75% 48% 59% Don't know % % % 43% 22% 23% Support % % % 67% 51% 53% Oppose % % % 67% 51% 53% Don't know % % % 51% 36% 33% Support % % % 66% 53% 52% Oppose % % % 62% 50% 54% Don't know 86 16% % % 55% 27% 30% Need more time % % % 59% 52% 48% Politics % % % 67% 49% 52% Don't know 63 23% % % 57% 33% 34% DELAY: More likely % % % 65% 57% 57% DELAY: Less likely % % % 67% 58% 53% DELAY: No difference/dk % % % 60% 37% 42% DENY: More likely 63 48% % % 65% 60% 54% DENY: Less likely % % % 65% 55% 54% DENY: No difference/dk % % % 69% 46% 48% Very important % % % 62% 51% 51% Not very important % % % 64% 47% 48%
5 U.S. Senate vote preference Total Net Peters Land DK Peters TOTAL % Definite voters % Wayne 73 50% Oakland 72 44% Rest of Detroit % All of Detroit % Grand Rapids % Flint 58 34% Rest of state 84 41% White % Other 84 66% Democrat % Republican 121 6% Others % Male % Female % % % % Liberal % Conservative % Other % PETERS: Rate favorably % PETERS: Rate not favorably % LAND: Rate favorably % LAND: Rate not favorably % Can rate both % Support % Oppose % Don't know % Support % Oppose % Don't know 86 34% Need more time % Politics % Don't know 63 34% DELAY: More likely % DELAY: Less likely % DELAY: No difference/dk % DENY: More likely 63 67% DENY: Less likely % DENY: No difference/dk % Very important % Not very important %
6 Keystone pipeline and hydraulic fracturing Q5. Hydraulic fracturing Q6. Keystone pipeline Net Net Total Support Oppose DK Support Support Oppose DK Support TOTAL % % Definite voters % % Wayne 73 42% % Oakland 72 40% % Rest of Detroit % % All of Detroit % % Grand Rapids % % Flint 58 34% % Rest of state 84 42% % White % % Other 84 35% % Democrat % % Republican % % Others % % Male % % Female % % % % % % % % Liberal % % Conservative % % Other % % PETERS: Rate favorably % % PETERS: Rate not favorably % % LAND: Rate favorably % % LAND: Rate not favorably % % Can rate both % % SENATE VOTE Peters % % Land % % Don't know % % Support % % Oppose 184 0% % Don't know 115 0% % Support % % Oppose % % Don't know 86 16% % Need more time % % Politics % % Don't know 63 26% % DELAY: More likely % % DELAY: Less likely % % DELAY: No difference/dk % % DENY: More likely 63 43% % DENY: Less likely % % DENY: No difference/dk % % Very important % % Not very important % %
7 Reason for delay and effect on Peters Senate vote Q7. Reason for delay Q8. Effect on vote if delayed Q9. Effect on vote if denied Gather Mostly Net More Less None Net More Less None Net Total information politics DK information likely likely /DK More Total likely likely /DK More TOTAL % % % Definite voters % % % Wayne 73 36% % % Oakland 72 29% % % Rest of Detroit % % % All of Detroit % % % Grand Rapids % % % Flint 58 23% % % Rest of state 84 34% % % White % % % Other 84 50% % % Democrat % % % Republican % % % Others % % % Male % % % Female % % % % % % % % % % % % Liberal % % % Conservative % % % Other % % % PETERS: Rate favorably % % % PETERS: Rate not favorably % % % LAND: Rate favorably % % % LAND: Rate not favorably % % % Can rate both % % % SENATE VOTE Peters % % % Land % % % Don't know % % % Support % % % Oppose % % % Don't know % % % Support % % % Oppose % % % Don't know 86 34% % % Need more time % % % Politics 286 0% % % Don't know 63 0% % % DELAY: More likely % % % DELAY: Less likely % % % DELAY: No difference/dk % % % DENY: More likely 63 40% % % DENY: Less likely % % % DENY: No difference/dk % % % Very important % % % Not very important % % %
Hello, my name is from HAI, a national research firm.
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