Mississippi Poll Results Wicker 38%, McDaniel 20% (42% undecided) Wicker 38%, Reeves 15% (47% undecided)
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- Ethelbert Alexander Turner
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1 Mississippi Poll Results Wicker 38%, McDaniel 20% (42% undecided) Wicker 38%, Reeves 15% (47% undecided) POLLING METHODOLOGY For this poll, a landline sample of likely households (based on recent primary participation) for an automated poll was chosen from the population registered to vote in the state of Mississippi, and there were 500 completed responses to 13 poll questions. The survey was conducted February The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4.4%. The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 82-16% white/black, while the geographic breakdown (as defined by Nielsen Designated Market Area, or DMA) of the respondents was as follows: 35% from Central MS, 16% from Metro Jackson, 34% from northern MS, and 15% from southern MS (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is graphically depicted in Exhibit A at the end of the poll analysis). POLL RESULTS Question 1: Do you plan to vote in the Republican US Senate primary on June 5? Yes 53% No 24% Undecided 23% Note: Only those who selected yes or undecided were allowed to take the rest of the survey Question 2: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Donald Trump? Approve 78% Disapprove 15% Undecided 7% Question 3: If the Republican primary for US Senate were held today, which candidate would you support? Wicker 38% McDaniel 20% Undecided 42% Question 4: If the Republican primary for US Senate were held today, which candidate would you support? Wicker 38% Reeves 15% Undecided 47% Question 5: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker? Favorable 43% Unfavorable 22% No Opinion 28% Never Heard 7% Page 1 of 17
2 Question 6: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris McDaniel? Favorable 28% Unfavorable 23% No Opinion 38% Never Heard 11% Question 7: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tate Reeves? Favorable 31% Unfavorable 17% No Opinion 39% Never Heard 13% Question 8: If the Republican primary for Governor were held today, which candidate would you support? Reeves 21% Fitch 12% Undecided 67% Question 9: What issue is most important to you? Economic Issues 55% Immigration 25% Social Issues 12% None of these 8% Question 10: Would you describe yourself as an evangelical Christian? Yes 72% No 15% Undecided 13% Question 11: And how would you describe yourself ideologically? Very conservative 46% Somewhat conservative 30% Moderate 13% Liberal 3% Don t know 8% Question 12: To ensure that our survey responses are most accurate, are you male or female? Female 56% Male 44% Question 13: And for demographic purposes, what is your age? % % % 65 or older 53% Page 2 of 17
3 SUMMARY JMC Analytics and Polling conducted this poll for the Mississippi Senate (and Gubernatorial) Republican primary. There are three main takeaways from this poll: (1) Senator Roger Wicker is in respectable shape (but is not invulnerable), (2) the Governor s race is wide open on the Republican side, and (3) Economic issues by far are most important to the Mississippi Republican electorate. Among the Republican electorate, President Trump s job approval rating was tested, and it remains solid at 78-15%. Underneath this solid rating, it s still interesting to note that there is a 21 point gender gap, as well as a 48 point gap in approval between evangelicals and non-evangelicals. Senator Wicker was then ballot tested against two potential primary opponents. Under either matchup, he has solid (18 points over McDaniel, 23 points over Reeves) leads, but over 40% are undecided in either scenario. What does work in Senator Wicker s favor is that his ballot test numbers are noticeably better among chronic voters (49-24% lead over McDaniel and a 58-12% lead over Reeves). And while all three Republicans have good name recognition (93% for Wicker, 89% for McDaniel, and 87% for Reeves), it certainly doesn t hurt Senator Wicker that he has a respectable 43-22% favorability/unfavorability rating (it s 28-23% for McDaniel and 31-17% for Reeves). The governor s race (on the Republican side) was also tested, and while Lt Governor Tate Reeves has a 21-12% lead over State Treasurer Lynn Fitch, 67% are undecided. A solid 55% of the Republican electorate rates economic issues (taxes/spending/job creation) as most important, while 25% say immigration is, while social issues (abortion/gay marriage) are only important to 12% (even among evangelicals, only 15% say social issues are most important). In summary, Senator Roger Wicker in good electoral shape, although he does have to do some work to further strengthen his electoral position to deter any would be challengers. CROSSTABS Question 2 Trump job approval Race Name Black Other White Total Trump job 1 Approve 47% 100% 83% 78% approval 2 Disapprove 42% 11% 15% 3 No Opinion 10% 6% 7% Page 3 of 17
4 Voter Score (Last four primaries) Total Trump job 1 Approve 77% 65% 73% 83% 85% 78% approval 2 Disapprove 11% 24% 18% 13% 12% 15% 3 No Opinion 11% 11% 9% 4% 3% 7% 100% 100% Region Central Central - Jackson North South Total Trump job 1 Approve 81% 70% 80% 76% 78% approval 2 Disapprove 15% 19% 13% 16% 15% 3 No Opinion 4% 11% 7% 8% 7% 100% Gender 1 Male 2 Female Total Trump job 1 Approve 85% 73% 78% approval 2 Disapprove 10% 19% 15% 3 No Opinion 4% 9% 7% Total 100% 100% 100% Age Range 1 18 to to to or older Total Trump job 1 Approve 75% 88% 76% 77% 78% approval 2 Disapprove 25% 10% 18% 15% 15% 3 No Opinion 2% 6% 8% 7% 100% Evangelical? 1 Yes 2 No 3 Undecided Total Trump job 1 Approve 84% 62% 64% 78% approval 2 Disapprove 9% 35% 23% 15% 3 No Opinion 6% 3% 13% 7% Page 4 of 17
5 Ideology 1 Very conservative 2 Somewhat conservative 3 Moderate 4 Liberal 5 Don t Know Total Trump job 1 Approve 93% 81% 57% 19% 38% 78% approval 2 Disapprove 4% 10% 38% 81% 33% 15% 3 No Opinion 2% 9% 5% 29% 7% 100% 100% Question 3 US Senate Ballot (Wicker/McDaniel) Race Name Black Other White Total US Senate 1 McDaniel 13% 21% 22% 20% Ballot 2 Wicker 27% 36% 40% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 60% 43% 38% 42% McDaniel) Voter Score (Last four primaries) Total US Senate 1 McDaniel 11% 14% 16% 25% 24% 20% Ballot 2 Wicker 37% 16% 34% 42% 49% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 51% 70% 50% 32% 27% 42% McDaniel) 100% 100% Region Central Central - Jackson North South Total US Senate 1 McDaniel 27% 15% 18% 16% 20% Ballot 2 Wicker 33% 38% 43% 37% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 40% 47% 39% 47% 42% McDaniel) 100% Page 5 of 17
6 Gender 1 Male 2 Female Total US Senate 1 McDaniel 25% 17% 20% Ballot 2 Wicker 42% 35% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 33% 49% 42% McDaniel) Total 100% 100% 100% Age Range 1 18 to to to or older Total US Senate 1 McDaniel 50% 27% 22% 17% 20% Ballot 2 Wicker 13% 33% 33% 43% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 38% 41% 46% 40% 42% McDaniel) 100% Evangelical? 1 Yes 2 No 3 Undecided Total US Senate 1 McDaniel 21% 16% 19% 20% Ballot 2 Wicker 41% 35% 23% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 37% 49% 58% 42% McDaniel) Ideology 1 Very conservative 2 Somewhat conservative 3 Moderate 4 Liberal 5 Don t Know Total US Senate 1 McDaniel 31% 12% 17% 2% 20% Ballot 2 Wicker 38% 49% 32% 25% 12% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 31% 39% 51% 75% 86% 42% McDaniel) 100% 100% Question 4 US Senate Ballot (Wicker/Reeves) Race Name Black Other White Total US Senate 1 Reeves 6% 29% 17% 15% Ballot 2 Wicker 28% 21% 40% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 65% 50% 43% 47% Reeves) Page 6 of 17
7 Voter Score (Last four primaries) Total US Senate 1 Reeves 14% 8% 16% 17% 12% 15% Ballot 2 Wicker 29% 19% 33% 42% 58% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 57% 73% 51% 41% 31% 47% Reeves) 100% 100% Region Central Central - Jackson North South Total US Senate 1 Reeves 18% 12% 14% 14% 15% Ballot 2 Wicker 34% 37% 40% 45% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 48% 51% 46% 41% 47% Reeves) 100% Gender 1 Male 2 Female Total US Senate 1 Reeves 17% 14% 15% Ballot 2 Wicker 45% 33% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 38% 53% 47% Reeves) Total 100% 100% 100% Age Range 1 18 to to to or older Total US Senate 1 Reeves 38% 22% 16% 12% 15% Ballot 2 Wicker 35% 40% 39% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 63% 43% 44% 48% 47% Reeves) 100% Evangelical? 1 Yes 2 No 3 Undecided Total US Senate 1 Reeves 17% 10% 11% 15% Ballot 2 Wicker 41% 34% 27% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 42% 56% 63% 47% Reeves) Page 7 of 17
8 Ideology 1 Very conservative 2 Somewhat conservative 3 Moderate 4 Liberal 5 Don t Know Total US Senate 1 Reeves 20% 14% 16% 6% 15% Ballot 2 Wicker 41% 43% 33% 13% 19% 38% (Wicker/ 3 Undecided 39% 43% 51% 81% 81% 47% Reeves) 100% 100% Question 5 Wicker Favorability Race Name Black Other White Total Wicker 1 Favorable 28% 29% 46% 43% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 23% 29% 22% 22% 3 No Opinion 35% 36% 26% 28% 4 Never Heard 14% 7% 6% 7% Voter Score (Last four primaries) Total Wicker 1 Favorable 34% 27% 37% 49% 54% 43% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 23% 27% 23% 23% 17% 22% 3 No Opinion 34% 27% 30% 25% 25% 28% 4 Never Heard 9% 19% 11% 3% 3% 7% 100% 100% Region Central Central - Jackson North South Total Wicker 1 Favorable 40% 47% 43% 45% 43% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 26% 17% 26% 13% 22% 3 No Opinion 26% 26% 27% 36% 28% 4 Never Heard 9% 10% 4% 7% 7% 100% Page 8 of 17
9 Gender 1 Male 2 Female Total Wicker 1 Favorable 48% 39% 43% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 26% 19% 22% 3 No Opinion 22% 32% 28% 4 Never Heard 4% 9% 7% Total 100% 100% 100% Age Range 1 18 to to to or older Total Wicker 1 Favorable 38% 45% 38% 46% 43% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 50% 28% 23% 20% 22% 3 No Opinion 13% 22% 33% 27% 28% 4 Never Heard 6% 7% 8% 7% 100% Evangelical? 1 Yes 2 No 3 Undecided Total Wicker 1 Favorable 46% 43% 28% 43% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 21% 29% 22% 22% 3 No Opinion 28% 23% 33% 28% 4 Never Heard 6% 5% 17% 7% Ideology 1 Very conservative 2 Somewhat conservative 3 Moderate 4 Liberal 5 Don t Know Total Wicker 1 Favorable 46% 50% 40% 19% 14% 43% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 25% 21% 19% 50% 12% 22% 3 No Opinion 25% 25% 32% 25% 45% 28% 4 Never Heard 4% 4% 10% 6% 29% 7% 100% 100% Page 9 of 17
10 Question 6 McDaniel Favorability Race Name Black Other White Total McDaniel 1 Favorable 22% 36% 29% 28% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 23% 7% 23% 23% 3 No Opinion 41% 36% 38% 38% 4 Never Heard 14% 21% 10% 11% Voter Score (Last four primaries) Total McDaniel 1 Favorable 23% 24% 27% 30% 29% 28% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 14% 24% 20% 25% 25% 23% 3 No Opinion 49% 41% 39% 36% 37% 38% 4 Never Heard 14% 11% 13% 9% 8% 11% 100% 100% Region Central Central - Jackson North South Total McDaniel 1 Favorable 35% 31% 22% 22% 28% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 22% 28% 20% 24% 23% 3 No Opinion 32% 33% 48% 38% 38% 4 Never Heard 11% 7% 11% 16% 11% 100% Gender 1 Male 2 Female Total McDaniel 1 Favorable 33% 24% 28% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 28% 19% 23% 3 No Opinion 32% 44% 38% 4 Never Heard 8% 14% 11% Total 100% 100% 100% Page 10 of 17
11 Age Range 1 18 to to to or older Total McDaniel 1 Favorable 50% 36% 28% 25% 28% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 38% 20% 20% 24% 23% 3 No Opinion 13% 34% 40% 40% 38% 4 Never Heard 10% 12% 11% 11% 100% Evangelical? 1 Yes 2 No 3 Undecided Total McDaniel 1 Favorable 29% 26% 23% 28% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 20% 40% 16% 23% 3 No Opinion 41% 29% 34% 38% 4 Never Heard 9% 5% 27% 11% Ideology 1 Very conservative 2 Somewhat conservative 3 Moderate 4 Liberal 5 Don t Know Total McDaniel 1 Favorable 40% 21% 22% 6% 2% 28% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 18% 28% 27% 38% 12% 23% 3 No Opinion 34% 40% 41% 50% 48% 38% 4 Never Heard 7% 10% 10% 6% 38% 11% 100% 100% Question 7 - Reeves Favorability Race Name Black Other White Total Reeves 1 Favorable 17% 43% 34% 31% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 18% 7% 17% 17% 3 No Opinion 54% 36% 36% 39% 4 Never Heard 12% 14% 13% 13% Page 11 of 17
12 Voter Score (Last four primaries) Total Reeves 1 Favorable 31% 16% 26% 37% 36% 31% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 17% 24% 19% 15% 15% 17% 3 No Opinion 46% 38% 40% 38% 37% 39% 4 Never Heard 6% 22% 15% 10% 12% 13% 100% 100% Region Central Central - Jackson North South Total Reeves 1 Favorable 36% 32% 29% 25% 31% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 21% 27% 13% 9% 17% 3 No Opinion 33% 32% 45% 47% 39% 4 Never Heard 10% 9% 14% 18% 13% 100% Gender 1 Male 2 Female Total Reeves 1 Favorable 34% 29% 31% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 22% 14% 17% 3 No Opinion 34% 43% 39% 4 Never Heard 10% 14% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% Age Range 1 18 to to to or older Total Reeves 1 Favorable 38% 40% 24% 32% 31% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 25% 20% 17% 16% 17% 3 No Opinion 38% 29% 46% 38% 39% 4 Never Heard 11% 14% 13% 13% 100% Evangelical? 1 Yes 2 No 3 Undecided Total Reeves 1 Favorable 34% 26% 22% 31% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 16% 27% 11% 17% 3 No Opinion 41% 30% 39% 39% 4 Never Heard 9% 17% 28% 13% Page 12 of 17
13 Ideology 1 Very conservative 2 Somewhat conservative 3 Moderate 4 Liberal 5 Don t Know Total Reeves 1 Favorable 35% 38% 27% 6% 5% 31% Favorability 2 Unfavorable 16% 19% 17% 50% 5% 17% 3 No Opinion 38% 36% 38% 44% 52% 39% 4 Never Heard 11% 7% 17% 38% 13% 100% 100% Question 8 Governor Ballot Race Name Black Other White Total Governor 1 Fitch 12% 7% 13% 12% Ballot 2 Reeves 14% 36% 21% 21% 3 Undecided 74% 57% 66% 67% Voter Score (Last four primaries) Total Governor 1 Fitch 14% 8% 9% 14% 17% 12% Ballot 2 Reeves 17% 16% 15% 26% 25% 21% 3 Undecided 69% 76% 76% 61% 58% 67% 100% 100% Region Central Central - Jackson North South Total Governor 1 Fitch 14% 16% 11% 5% 12% Ballot 2 Reeves 26% 26% 15% 16% 21% 3 Undecided 60% 58% 74% 79% 67% 100% Gender 1 Male 2 Female Total Governor 1 Fitch 12% 12% 12% Ballot 2 Reeves 24% 18% 21% 3 Undecided 64% 70% 67% Total 100% 100% 100% Page 13 of 17
14 Age Range 1 18 to to to or older Total Governor 1 Fitch 25% 17% 13% 10% 12% Ballot 2 Reeves 25% 29% 15% 21% 21% 3 Undecided 50% 54% 72% 69% 67% 100% Evangelical? 1 Yes 2 No 3 Undecided Total Governor 1 Fitch 12% 14% 9% 12% Ballot 2 Reeves 22% 17% 17% 21% 3 Undecided 66% 69% 73% 67% Ideology 1 Very conservative 2 Somewhat conservative 3 Moderate 4 Liberal 5 Don t Know Total Governor 1 Fitch 14% 11% 11% 19% 7% 12% Ballot 2 Reeves 23% 23% 19% 6% 5% 21% 3 Undecided 63% 66% 70% 75% 88% 67% 100% 100% Question 9 Important Issue Race Name Black Other White Total Important 1 Economic Issues 59% 43% 54% 55% issue 2 Social issues 9% 21% 13% 12% 3 Immigration 17% 36% 26% 25% 4 None of these 15% 7% 8% Voter Score (Last four primaries) Total Important 1 Economic Issues 49% 46% 52% 61% 51% 55% issue 2 Social issues 14% 19% 12% 11% 14% 12% 3 Immigration 31% 24% 26% 23% 27% 25% 4 None of these 6% 11% 11% 6% 8% 8% 100% 100% Page 14 of 17
15 Region Central Central - Jackson North South Total Important 1 Economic Issues 53% 56% 57% 53% 55% issue 2 Social issues 13% 7% 14% 12% 12% 3 Immigration 25% 30% 21% 29% 25% 4 None of these 9% 7% 9% 7% 8% 100% Gender 1 Male 2 Female Total Important 1 Economic Issues 52% 57% 55% issue 2 Social issues 10% 14% 12% 3 Immigration 26% 24% 25% 4 None of these 12% 5% 8% Total 100% 100% 100% Age Range 1 18 to to to or older Total Important 1 Economic Issues 50% 52% 56% 55% 55% issue 2 Social issues 25% 16% 10% 12% 12% 3 Immigration 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 4 None of these 7% 8% 9% 8% 100% Evangelical? 1 Yes 2 No 3 Undecided Total Important 1 Economic Issues 56% 49% 55% 55% issue 2 Social issues 15% 6% 2% 12% 3 Immigration 24% 32% 23% 25% 4 None of these 5% 12% 20% 8% Page 15 of 17
16 Ideology 1 Very conservative 2 Somewhat conservative 3 Moderate 4 Liberal 5 Don t Know Total Important 1 Economic Issues 50% 63% 59% 56% 43% 55% issue 2 Social issues 17% 11% 5% 6% 7% 12% 3 Immigration 27% 23% 29% 19% 21% 25% 4 None of these 7% 4% 8% 19% 29% 8% 100% 100% Page 16 of 17
17 Appendix A: Mississippi regions (Central=Central MS, JACK = Metro Jackson, N=Northern MS, S=Southern MS) Note: The following media markets were aggregated for reporting purposes: (1)Memphis TN, Columbus/Tupelo, and Greenwood/Greenville were aggregated into northern MS, (2) Jackson, Meridian, Hattiesburg/Laurel, Mobile AL, and Baton Rouge LA were aggregated into Central MS, with Hinds, Madison, and Rankin Counties separately carved out, and (3) Biloxi and New Orleans LA were aggregated into Southern MS. Page 17 of 17
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