Statewide Poll Results Edwards 52%, Vitter 32% (16% undecided) Edwards 54%, Vitter 35% (11% undecided leaners included)

Transcription

1 Statewide Poll Results Edwards 5%, Vitter 3% (16% undecided) Edwards 54%, Vitter 35% (11% undecided leaners included) POLLING METHODOLOGY Our philosophy about which population to use depends on the election, but we are generally comfortable with a likely voter model (as opposed to a registered voter model) for most elections. For this poll, we chose a sample of likely households statewide for a live operator poll, and there were 600 completed responses to 11 poll questions 75% came from landlines, while 5% came from cell phones. The survey was conducted October The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4.0%. The demographic breakdown of the respondents was 67-9% white/black, while the party registration of respondents was 47-3% Democratic/Republican (1% Independents), and the gender breakdown was 55% female and 45% male. The geographic (which in this case was media markets as defined by Nielsen) breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 5% from Alexandria, 1% from Rouge, 14% from Lafayette, 5% from Charles, 9% from Monroe, 35% from Orleans, and 11% from Shreveport (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is graphically depicted in Exhibit A at the end of the poll analysis). POLL RESULTS Question 1: If the election for governor were held today, which candidate would you support? ( affiliations of candidates mentioned) Edwards 5% Vitter 3% Undecided (NOT READ) 16% Question : Only if undecided is selected for the previous question) Given that you are undecided, which candidate are you leaning towards supporting? ( affiliations of candidates mentioned) Edwards 54% Vitter 35% Undecided (NOT READ) 11% Question 3: In the race for governor, which candidate would you like to win? ( affiliations of candidates mentioned) Edwards 5% Vitter 3% Neither 6% Undecided (NOT READ) 10% Page 1 of 15

2 Question 4: And finally, in the race for governor, did you vote for one of the candidates who did not make the runoff? Yes 4% No 67% Do not recall/refuse 4% Did not vote in primary 5% Question 5: If the election for lieutenant governor were held today, which candidate would you support? ( affiliations of candidates mentioned) Nungesser 40% Holden 39% Undecided (NOT READ) 1% Question 6: If the election for attorney general were held today, which candidate would you support? ( affiliations of candidates mentioned) Landry 38% Caldwell 34% Undecided (NOT READ) 9% Question 7: Do you feel more or less safe than you did four years ago? Less Safe 50% More Safe 1% Undecided (NOT READ) 30% Question 8: Do you favor or oppose the state of Louisiana s paying to provide police protection to the city of Orleans? Favor 49% Oppose 33% Undecided (NOT READ) 18% Question 9: If a candidate for public office favored reducing the penalties for possession of marijuana, would you be more or less likely to support that candidate? Less Likely 43% More Likely 35% Make no difference % Question 10: As the cost of the state's college tuition scholarship program (also known as TOPS) keeps rising, what would you favor changing to the program? Make no changes 37% Require higher GPA 0% Cap scholarship amount 13% Reduce scholarship amount 10% Undecided (NOT READ) 19% Question 11: And for demographic purposes, are you male or female? Female 55% Male 45% Page of 15

3 SUMMARY In the October 4 primary, Democratic representative John Bel Edwards led the field with 40% of the vote in a low (38%) turnout race. He faces Republican U.S. Senator David Vitter, who finished second with 3% of the vote. Running a close third was Republican Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, who received 19% of the vote, while Republican Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne finished fourth with 15% (five other candidates in the aggregate received 3% of the vote). This poll tests the initial impressions of voters on both the statewide races and some issue oriented questions in the first week of the runoff. Candidates Fieldwork for this poll was conducted October 8-31, and in the ballot test, John Bel Edwards continues his rise in the polls, with a 5-3% lead over David Vitter. There are several reasons for this lead: (1) he has consolidated the Democratic vote (among blacks, he leads 80-6% over Vitter, while he has a commanding 61-4% lead among white Democrats), () Rep. Edwards leads 45-35% among white Independents, (3) he has made inroads into the Republican vote, getting 5% of registered Republicans (compared to 60% for David Vitter). From a geographic standpoint, he runs ahead of David Vitter in all but the Alexandria media markets, and in four media markets ( Rouge, Charles, Monroe, and Orleans) totaling 70% of the state s electorate, Rep. Edwards leads with absolute majorities. When undecideds are asked who they are leaning towards supporting, the leaners mildly prefer David Vitter, but even with leaners included, Edwards has a 19 point lead over Vitter. And in either case (with or without leaners included), there is an approximate 10 point gender gap benefitting Rep. Edwards (with leaners included, females prefer Edwards over Vitter 56-33%, while men prefer Edwards 51-38%). In addition to testing the candidates position in the polls through the ballot test, we wanted to see who voters would like to win, and found an extremely strong correlation with the ballot test with leaners included: 96% of those who supported Edwards would like him to win, while 91% of Vitter s supporters would like him to win. Undecideds are just that: 73% don t know who they d like to win, while % didn t want either candidate to win, and another 4% selected Edwards (0% selected Vitter). Finally, we asked respondents if they voted for one of the also rans (which comprised 37% of the primary electorate), and found that the 4% who said they voted for another candidate supports Edwards 51-3% over Vitter (leaners included). The 67% who didn t vote for another candidate support Edwards 59-37%, while the remainder (9%) of respondents favors Vitter 3-5% over Edwards (43% are undecided). In the other statewide runoff races we polled, there has not been much movement since the primary: for Lt. Governor, Republican Billy Nungesser has a small 40-39% lead over Democrat Kip Holden. In the Attorney General s race (where both runoff contestants are Republicans), Jeff Landry has a 38-34% lead over incumbent Buddy Caldwell. Issues We had noted in the last poll that by a 54-18% margin, respondents felt the state was moving in the wrong direction. Similarly, in this poll, residents by a 50-1% margin felt less safe than they did four years ago, and this sentiment was broadly shared across the electorate, regardless of race, party, gender, or geography. This feeling of insecurity probably contributed to 49-33% support for the state police presence in Orleans, although on this question, there was some geographic variability. Those in the Orleans media market support the police Page 3 of 15

4 protection 63-0%, while in the rest of the state, support was more evenly divided: only 41-39% in favor of paying to provide police protection for Orleans. We also asked about reducing penalties for marijuana possession, as well as the TOPS program. While respondents by a 43-35% margin would be less likely to support a candidate who favored reducing penalties for marijuana possession, there was definitely an urban/rural split here, with those in the larger metropolitan areas ( Rouge and Orleans) being 38-36% in favor of such a candidate, while in the rest of the state, voters by a 5-3% margin would be more likely to oppose such a candidate. On the TOPS program, 37% do not want any changes to be made, 0% would favor a higher grade point average, while another 3% would favor some sort of limitation on the scholarship amount (19% are undecided about what should be done).where the biggest variation was noticed was in individual media markets: no changes was the clear first choice, except in Charles (where undecided was the first choice) and Orleans (where both higher GPA and undecided were closely behind no changes ). Conclusion While John Bel Edwards starts off with a large lead in the polls, he s not substantially over 50% of the vote, and with 34% of primary voters selecting one of the other Republican candidates who didn t make the runoff, David Vitter will undoubtedly work on getting this vote in the runoff, since these voters will determine who the next governor is. CROSSTABS Question 1 Governor (ballot test) Name 1 Edwards 80% 46% 41% 5% Vitter 6% 5% 44% 3% 13% 9% 16% 16% 1 Edwards 7% 49% 5% 5% Vitter 13% 3% 60% 3% 14% 19% 15% 16% Page 4 of 15

5 1 Edwards 5% 50% 55% 5% Vitter 35% 30% 6% 3% 13% 0% 18% 16% 1 Edwards 33% 64% 49% 53% 53% 51% 46% 5% Vitter 40% 5% 35% 5% 37% 34% 3% 3% 7% 11% 15% % 10% 15% % 16% 100% 100% 100% 100% 1 Edwards 50% 54% 5% Vitter 35% 30% 3% 15% 16% 16% Question Governor (leaners) - Leaners Name 1 Edwards 83% 46% 4% 54% Vitter 7% 5% 48% 35% 10% 9% 11% 11% - Leaners 1 Edwards 75% 49% 6% 54% Vitter 16% 35% 64% 35% 10% 16% 10% 11% Page 5 of 15

6 - Leaners 1 Edwards 53% 50% 60% 54% Vitter 38% 3% 9% 35% 9% 17% 11% 11% - Leaners 1 Edwards 37% 66% 51% 53% 55% 53% 46% 54% Vitter 47% 6% 36% 34% 37% 37% 38% 35% 17% 9% 13% 13% 8% 11% 15% 11% 100% 100% 100% 100% - Leaners 1 Edwards 51% 56% 54% Vitter 38% 33% 35% 1% 11% 11% Question 3 Who you would like to be Governor? Like To Be Governor Name 1 Edwards 81% 50% 40% 5% Vitter 6% 5% 44% 3% 3 Neither 3% 7% 6% 4 Undecided 10% 5% 9% 10% Like To Be Governor 1 Edwards 7% 50% 5% 5% Vitter 14% 30% 59% 3% 3 Neither 5% 4% 8% 6% 4 Undecided 9% 16% 8% 10% Page 6 of 15

7 Like To Be Governor 1 Edwards 51% 50% 58% 5% Vitter 36% 9% 5% 3% 3 Neither 4% 6% 8% 6% 4 Undecided 9% 14% 10% 10% Like To Be Governor 1 Edwards 33% 64% 49% 50% 55% 51% 45% 5% Vitter 47% 1% 36% 8% 37% 34% 31% 3% 3 Neither 10% 6% % 13% % 4% 9% 6% 4 Undecided 10% 9% 1% 9% 6% 10% 15% 10% 100% 100% 100% 100% Like To Be Governor 1 Edwards 49% 55% 5% Vitter 34% 30% 3% 3 Neither 6% 5% 6% 4 Undecided 11% 9% 10% Question 4 Supported another candidate for Governor - Supported Other Candidate Name 1 Yes 18% 1% 7% 4% No 74% 67% 64% 67% 3 Do not recall/refuse 3% 4% 4% 4% 4 Did not vote in primary 4% 8% 5% 5% - Supported Other Candidate 1 Yes 0% 4% 31% 4% No 7% 6% 6% 67% 3 Do not recall/refuse 4% 6% 4% 4% 4 Did not vote in primary 5% 9% % 5% Page 7 of 15

8 - Supported Other Candidate 1 Yes 8% 0% 0% 4% No 67% 70% 63% 67% 3 Do not recall/refuse 4% 5% 5% 4% 4 Did not vote in primary % 6% 11% 5% - Supported Other Candidate 1 Yes 33% 8% 36% 31% % 15% 6% 4% No 53% 63% 55% 56% 76% 78% 60% 67% 3 Do not recall/refuse 10% 5% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4 Did not vote in primary 3% 4% 5% 9% % 3% 11% 5% 100% 100% 100% 100% - Supported Other Candidate 1 Yes 7% % 4% No 64% 69% 67% 3 Do not recall/refuse 4% 4% 4% 4 Did not vote in primary 4% 5% 5% Question 5 Lt. Governor (ballot test) Lt Name 1 Holden 70% 4% 5% 39% Nungesser 7% 9% 54% 40% % 9% 1% % Lt 1 Holden 55% 35% 17% 39% Nungesser 3% 38% 65% 40% % 7% 18% % Page 8 of 15

9 Lt 1 Holden 39% 35% 43% 39% Nungesser 4% 40% 3% 40% 19% 5% 5% % Lt 1 Holden 3% 53% 38% % 35% 36% 38% 39% Nungesser 47% 31% 40% 47% 41% 44% 34% 40% 30% 16% % 31% 4% 0% 8% % 100% 100% 100% 100% Lt 1 Holden 3% 44% 39% Nungesser 45% 35% 40% 3% 1% % Question 6 Atty Gen (ballot test) Atty Gen's Name 1 Caldwell 7% 9% 37% 34% Landry 4% 17% 45% 38% 49% 54% 18% 9% Atty Gen's 1 Caldwell 35% 30% 35% 34% Landry 8% 41% 49% 38% 37% 9% 16% 9% Atty Gen's 1 Caldwell 36% 30% 3% 34% Landry 39% 34% 38% 38% 5% 36% 30% 9% Page 9 of 15

10 Atty Gen's 1 Caldwell 33% 41% 5% 34% 41% 3% 3% 34% Landry 43% 33% 51% 41% 39% 33% 38% 38% 3% 6% 5% 5% 0% 35% 9% 9% 100% 100% 100% 100% Atty Gen's 1 Caldwell 38% 31% 34% Landry 37% 38% 38% 5% 31% 9% Question 7 Feel safer Name Feel Safer 1 More Safe 31% 1% 16% 1% Less Safe 43% 1% 54% 50% 6% 58% 30% 30% Feel Safer 1 More Safe 4% 1% 16% 1% Less Safe 47% 46% 56% 50% 9% 33% 8% 30% Feel Safer 1 More Safe 17% 4% 8% 1% Less Safe 54% 45% 41% 50% 9% 31% 31% 30% Page 10 of 15

11 Feel Safer 1 More Safe 3% 19% 0% 31% 4% 17% 8% 1% Less Safe 53% 49% 47% 53% 45% 54% 40% 50% 3% 3% 33% 16% 31% 9% 3% 30% 100% 100% 100% 100% Female Total Feel Safer 1 More Safe % 19% 1% Less Safe 46% 5% 50% 3% 8% 30% Question 8 Police protection in Orleans Police Protection Orleans Name 1 Favor 57% 54% 45% 49% Oppose 5% 1% 37% 33% 18% 5% 19% 19% Police Protection Orleans 1 Favor 49% 53% 44% 49% Oppose 33% 7% 36% 33% 18% 0% 0% 19% Police Protection Orleans 1 Favor 43% 5% 61% 49% Oppose 36% 30% 5% 33% 1% 19% 15% 19% Police Protection Orleans Page 11 of 15 1 Favor 43% 37% 5% 44% 31% 63% 40% 49% Oppose 37% 44% 35% 38% 37% 0% 38% 33% 0% 0% 13% 19% 31% 17% % 19% 100% 100% 100% 100%

12 Police Protection Orleans 1 Favor 45% 51% 49% Oppose 38% 8% 33% 17% 1% 19% Question 9 Reduce marijuana penalties Reduce Marijuana Penalties Name 1 More likely 37% 58% 33% 35% Less likely 36% 5% 47% 43% 3 No Difference 7% 17% 1% % Reduce Marijuana Penalties 1 More likely 36% 48% 5% 35% Less likely 41% 31% 5% 43% 3 No Difference 3% 1% 3% % Reduce Marijuana Penalties 1 More likely 30% 39% 46% 35% Less likely 48% 40% 3% 43% 3 No Difference 3% 1% % % Reduce Marijuana Penalties 1 More likely 10% 40% 38% 31% 9% 36% 35% 35% Less likely 80% 36% 4% 53% 53% 35% 49% 43% 3 No Difference 10% 4% 0% 16% 18% 8% 15% % 100% 100% 100% 100% Reduce Marijuana Penalties 1 More likely 41% 31% 35% Less likely 39% 45% 43% 3 No Difference 0% 4% % Page 1 of 15

13 Question 10 TOPS changes TOPS Changes Name 1 Higher GPA 7% 4% 5% 0% Cap scholarship 1% 8% 14% 13% 3 Reduce scholarship 16% 4% 8% 10% 4 No Changes 45% 9% 34% 37% 5 Undecided 0% 17% 19% 19% TOPS Changes 1 Higher GPA 15% 0% 9% 0% Cap scholarship 11% 17% 14% 13% 3 Reduce scholarship 11% 9% 9% 10% 4 No Changes 43% 33% 31% 37% 5 Undecided 1% 1% 16% 19% TOPS Changes 1 Higher GPA % 19% 17% 0% Cap scholarship 14% 10% 14% 13% 3 Reduce scholarship 9% 11% 11% 10% 4 No Changes 35% 40% 40% 37% 5 Undecided 0% 19% 18% 19% TOPS Changes 1 Higher GPA 3% 18% 19% 13% 16% 3% 3% 0% Cap scholarship 10% 14% 1% 16% 4% 17% 9% 13% 3 Reduce scholarship 0% 8% 7% 19% 10% 9% 1% 10% 4 No Changes 37% 46% 4% 5% 49% 9% 35% 37% 5 Undecided 10% 14% 0% 8% % % 0% 19% 100% 100% 100% 100% Page 13 of 15

14 TOPS Changes 1 Higher GPA 4% 17% 0% Cap scholarship 11% 15% 13% 3 Reduce scholarship 9% 11% 10% 4 No Changes 38% 36% 37% 5 Undecided 18% 0% 19% Page 14 of 15

15 Appendix A: Statewide regions (ALX = Alexandria, BR= Rouge, LAF=Lafayette, LKC= Charles, MON=Monroe, NO= Orleans, SHR=Shreveport) Page 15 of 15