HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

Transcription

1 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from September 10 through September 12, A total of 800 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all adults were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping. 1

2 STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Mark Dayton 37% 37% 24% 2% Donald Trump 31% 54% 15% - GOVERNOR Tim Walz 37% 13% 32% 18% Jeff Johnson 26% 24% 31% 19% US SENATE Amy Klobucher 56% 19% 24% 1% Jim Newberger 7% 2% 15% 76% US SENATE Tina Smith 32% 19% 23% 26% Karin Housley 18% 8% 27% 47% ATTORNEY GENERAL Keith Ellison 20% 31% 29% 20% Doug Wardlow 8% 5% 18% 69% 2

3 QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for Minnesota governor were held today, would you vote for: - Tim Walz, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate - Jeff Johnson, the Republican candidate - Chris Wright, the Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis candidate - Josh Welter, the Libertarian candidate WALZ JOHNSON OTHER UNDECIDED STATE 45% 36% 3% 16% REGION WALZ JOHNSON OTHER UNDECIDED Hennepin/Ramsey 55% 27% 2% 16% Metro Suburbs 39% 42% 5% 14% Southern Minnesota 48% 34% 2% 16% Northern Minnesota 35% 43% 2% 20% SEX WALZ JOHNSON OTHER UNDECIDED Men 40% 40% 4% 16% Women 50% 32% 2% 16% PARTY ID WALZ JOHNSON OTHER UNDECIDED DFL/Democrat 84% - 1% 15% Republican 2% 90% 1% 7% Independent/Other 40% 26% 7% 27% AGE WALZ JOHNSON OTHER UNDECIDED % 17% 3% 18% % 33% 5% 20% % 41% 2% 18% % 45% 2% 11% INCOME WALZ JOHNSON OTHER UNDECIDED <$50,000 41% 37% 5% 17% $50, % 40% 2% 14% ** Wright 2% ** Welter 1% 3

4 QUESTION: Which one of the following issues is most important to you in your vote for governor? (ORDER ROTATED) ALL WALZ JOHNSON UNDECIDED VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS Healthcare 25% 37% 12% 20% Quality of Public Education 18% 24% 9% 22% The Economy & Jobs 16% 11% 22% 17% Immigration 11% 2% 25% 5% Taxes 10% 3% 18% 9% Protecting the Environment 6% 9% 1% 7% Crime & Public Safety 4% 6% 2% 5% Gun Rights & Gun Control 2% 2% 2% 4% Drug abuse and Opioid addiction 2% 2% 2% 2% Transportation & Transit 2% 1% 2% 3% Abortion 2% - 3% 5% Affordable Housing - 1% - - Not Sure (NOT READ) 2% 2% 2% 1% 4

5 QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for Minnesota attorney general were held today, would you vote for: - Keith Ellison, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate - Doug Wardlow, the Republican candidate - Noah Johnson, the Grassroots Legalize Cannabis candidate ELLISON WARDLOW JOHNSON UNDECIDED STATE 41% 36% 5% 18% REGION ELLISON WARDLOW JOHNSON UNDECIDED Hennepin/Ramsey 52% 29% 4% 15% Metro Suburbs 35% 40% 5% 20% Southern Minnesota 36% 36% 5% 23% Northern Minnesota 36% 44% 5% 15% SEX ELLISON WARDLOW JOHNSON UNDECIDED Men 36% 43% 6% 15% Women 46% 30% 3% 21% PARTY ID ELLISON WARDLOW JOHNSON UNDECIDED DFL/Democrat 85% - 4% 11% Republican 2% 80% 2% 16% Independent/Other 27% 36% 8% 29% AGE ELLISON WARDLOW JOHNSON UNDECIDED % 16% 5% 17% % 37% 5% 22% % 40% 5% 20% % 45% 3% 14% INCOME ELLISON WARDLOW JOHNSON UNDECIDED <$50,000 37% 38% 5% 20% $50, % 38% 4% 18% 5

6 QUESTION: If the 2018 general election for U.S. senator were held today, would you vote for: - Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate - Jim Newberger, the Republican candidate - Dennis Schuller, the Legal Marijuana Now candidate - Paula Overby, the Green Party candidate KLOBUCHAR NEWBERGER OTHER UNDECIDED STATE 60% 30% 4% 6% REGION KLOBUCHAR NEWBERGER OTHER UNDECIDED Hennepin/Ramsey 69% 25% 2% 4% Metro Suburbs 51% 35% 8% 6% Southern Minnesota 66% 25% 3% 6% Northern Minnesota 55% 34% 3% 8% SEX KLOBUCHAR NEWBERGER OTHER UNDECIDED Men 54% 34% 5% 7% Women 66% 26% 3% 5% PARTY ID KLOBUCHAR NEWBERGER OTHER UNDECIDED DFL/Democrat 97% - 1% 2% Republican 17% 73% 1% 9% Independent/Other 59% 23% 11% 7% AGE KLOBUCHAR NEWBERGER OTHER UNDECIDED % 16% 4% 5% % 29% 6% 8% % 33% 3% 5% % 36% 4% 5% INCOME KLOBUCHAR NEWBERGER OTHER UNDECIDED <$50,000 58% 32% 4% 6% $50, % 31% 4% 6% ** Schuller 3% ** Overby 1% 6

7 QUESTION: If the 2018 special election for U.S. senator were held today, would you vote for: - Tina Smith, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate - Karin Housley, the Republican candidate - Sarah Wellington, the Legal Marijuana Now candidate - Jerry Trooien, the unaffiliated candidate SMITH HOUSLEY OTHER UNDECIDED STATE 44% 37% 4% 15% REGION SMITH HOUSLEY OTHER UNDECIDED Hennepin/Ramsey 55% 30% 3% 12% Metro Suburbs 37% 42% 4% 17% Southern Minnesota 41% 35% 4% 20% Northern Minnesota 39% 43% 4% 14% SEX SMITH HOUSLEY OTHER UNDECIDED Men 39% 43% 3% 15% Women 49% 32% 4% 15% PARTY ID SMITH HOUSLEY OTHER UNDECIDED DFL/Democrat 91% - - 9% Republican - 87% 1% 12% Independent/Other 32% 33% 9% 26% AGE SMITH HOUSLEY OTHER UNDECIDED % 16% 3% 17% % 38% 6% 15% % 45% 3% 13% % 43% 2% 16% INCOME SMITH HOUSLEY OTHER UNDECIDED <$50,000 44% 38% 3% 15% $50, % 41% 3% 14% ** Troolen 2% ** Wellington 2% 7

8 QUESTION: Which one of the following issues is most important to you in your vote for senator? (ORDER ROTATED) ALL KLOBCH NEWBERG UNDECIDED VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS Healthcare 30% 37% 19% 17% The Economy & Jobs 15% 14% 18% 15% Immigration 12% 5% 24% 24% Russian Collusion & Removing Trump from office 12% 19% 1% 4% Supreme Court Appointments 9% 9% 8% 9% National Security & Foreign Policy Issues 6% 3% 11% 11% Taxes 6% 4% 8% 9% Guns Rights & Gun Control 5% 5% 7% 7% Abortion 4% 3% 3% 4% Not Sure (NOT READ) 1% 1% 1% - ALL SMITH HOUSLEY UNDECIDED VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS Healthcare 30% 39% 21% 27% The Economy & Jobs 15% 10% 21% 18% Immigration 12% 4% 22% 12% Russian Collusion & Removing Trump from office 12% 23% 1% 7% Supreme Court Appointments 9% 10% 9% 7% National Security & Foreign Policy Issues 6% 2% 9% 7% Taxes 6% 2% 8% 8% Guns Rights & Gun Control 5% 5% 6% 7% Abortion 4% 4% 2% 5% Not Sure (NOT READ) 1% 1% 1% 2% 8

9 QUESTION: The ex-girlfriend of Keith Ellison, the Democratic nominee for attorney general, has alleged that he committed an act of domestic violence against her. Do you believe her allegation, or not? YES, BELIEVE NO, DO NOT NOT SURE STATE 21% 22% 57% REGION YES, BELIEVE NO, DO NOT NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 16% 27% 57% Metro Suburbs 24% 19% 57% Southern Minnesota 16% 24% 60% Northern Minnesota 32% 14% 54% SEX YES, BELIEVE NO, DO NOT NOT SURE Men 25% 19% 56% Women 18% 24% 58% PARTY ID YES, BELIEVE NO, DO NOT NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 5% 30% 65% Republican 42% 15% 43% Independent/Other 20% 19% 61% AGE YES, BELIEVE NO, DO NOT NOT SURE % 24% 61% % 19% 61% % 21% 58% % 24% 49% INCOME YES, BELIEVE NO, DO NOT NOT SURE <$50,000 19% 23% 58% $50, % 22% 56% 9

10 QUESTION: Do you support or oppose the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED STATE 40% 39% 21% REGION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Hennepin/Ramsey 30% 51% 19% Metro Suburbs 46% 32% 22% Southern Minnesota 38% 38% 24% Northern Minnesota 50% 31% 19% SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Men 46% 35% 19% Women 35% 42% 23% PARTY ID SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED DFL/Democrat 3% 75% 22% Republican 96% - 4% Independent /Other 30% 34% 36% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED % 57% 23% % 35% 27% % 35% 19% % 35% 15% INCOME SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <$50,000 42% 35% 23% $50, % 40% 18% 10

11 QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump s job performance as president? APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE STATE 39% 56% 5% REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 32% 64% 4% Metro Suburbs 42% 53% 5% Southern Minnesota 40% 55% 5% Northern Minnesota 46% 47% 7% SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Men 46% 50% 4% Women 33% 61% 6% PARTY ID APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 4% 92% 4% Republican 95% 1% 4% Independent /Other 27% 66% 7% AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE % 72% 4% % 54% 7% % 50% 6% % 52% 4% INCOME APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE <$50,000 44% 51% 5% $50, % 55% 6% 2016 VOTE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Trump Voters 86% 8% 6% Clinton Voters 1% 95% 4% 11

12 QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy and jobs? APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE STATE 48% 45% 7% REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 38% 54% 8% Metro Suburbs 53% 40% 7% Southern Minnesota 49% 44% 7% Northern Minnesota 55% 39% 6% SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Men 55% 40% 5% Women 42% 49% 9% PARTY ID APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 10% 81% 9% Republican 97% 1% 2% Independent /Other 47% 44% 9% AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE % 60% 10% % 44% 9% % 39% 5% % 43% 4% INCOME APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE <$50,000 50% 42% 8% $50, % 43% 7% 2016 VOTE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Trump Voters 92% 6% 2% Clinton Voters 8% 82% 10% 12

13 QUESTION: Do you think Donald Trump generally speaks the truth, or not? YES, HE DOES NO, HE DOES NOT NOT SURE STATE 34% 59% 7% REGION YES, HE DOES NO, HE DOES NOT NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 27% 68% 5% Metro Suburbs 38% 52% 10% Southern Minnesota 31% 62% 7% Northern Minnesota 41% 53% 6% SEX YES, HE DOES NO, HE DOES NOT NOT SURE Men 39% 55% 6% Women 29% 63% 8% PARTY ID YES, HE DOES NO, HE DOES NOT NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 5% 91% 4% Republican 74% 15% 11% Independent/Other 28% 65% 7% AGE YES, HE DOES NO, HE DOES NOT NOT SURE % 73% 3% % 62% 8% % 53% 9% % 54% 7% INCOME YES, HE DOES NO, HE DOES NOT NOT SURE <$50,000 39% 53% 8% $50, % 58% 7% 2016 VOTE YES, HE DOES NO, HE DOES NOT NOT SURE Trump Voters 70% 18% 12% Clinton Voters 3% 94% 3% 13

14 QUESTION: Which of the following three statements comes closest to your view? - I want my vote in November to support the direction President Trump is leading the nation. - I want my vote in November to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation. - My vote this November doesn t have much to do with President Trump and his policies. SUPPORT CHANGE NOT TO DO NOT SURE STATE 29% 43% 27% 1% REGION SUPPORT CHANGE NOT TO DO NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 21% 52% 25% 2% Metro Suburbs 33% 39% 28% - Southern Minnesota 31% 42% 27% - Northern Minnesota 34% 37% 28% 1% SEX SUPPORT CHANGE NOT TO DO NOT SURE Men 32% 39% 28% 1% Women 26% 47% 26% 1% PARTY ID SUPPORT CHANGE NOT TO DO NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 1% 83% 15% 1% Republican 74% 1% 24% 1% Independent/Other 18% 38% 43% 1% AGE SUPPORT CHANGE NOT TO DO NOT SURE % 61% 24% % 44% 28% % 37% 29% 1% % 38% 27% 1% INCOME SUPPORT CHANGE NOT TO DO NOT SURE <$50,000 33% 40% 26% 1% $50, % 42% 28% 1% 2016 VOTE SUPPORT CHANGE NOT TO DO NOT SURE Trump Voters 66% 2% 31% 1% Clinton Voters 1% 83% 15% 1% 14

15 QUESTION: In the 2016 presidential election, did you vote for, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, another candidate or did you not vote? TRUMP CLINTON OTHER NO VOTE DK/REF STATE 43% 45% 5% 4% 3% REGION TRUMP CLINTON OTHER NO VOTE DK/REF Hennepin/Ramsey 33% 59% 4% 2% 2% Metro Suburbs 48% 37% 8% 4% 3% Southern Minnesota 45% 41% 3% 6% 5% Northern Minnesota 50% 38% 6% 3% 3% SEX TRUMP CLINTON OTHER NO VOTE DK/REF Men 49% 39% 6% 3% 3% Women 38% 50% 4% 4% 4% PARTY ID TRUMP CLINTON OTHER NO VOTE DK/REF DFL/Democrat 3% 92% 4% - 1% Republican 98% - 1% - 1% Independent/Other 36% 34% 11% 11% 8% AGE TRUMP CLINTON OTHER NO VOTE DK/REF % 64% 5% 2% 3% % 42% 8% 6% 4% % 38% 6% 2% 4% % 42% 2% 4% 3% INCOME TRUMP CLINTON OTHER NO VOTE DK/REF <$50,000 46% 41% 7% 2% 4% $50, % 43% 6% 4% 3% 15

16 QUESTION: To date, do you think Special Counsel Robert Mueller s investigation into possible collusion with Russia has been fair and impartial, or do you think it has been unfair and biased against President Trump? FAIR BIASED NOT SURE STATE 53% 31% 16% REGION FAIR BIASED NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 64% 24% 12% Metro Suburbs 46% 36% 18% Southern Minnesota 54% 30% 16% Northern Minnesota 44% 39% 17% SEX FAIR BIASED NOT SURE Men 50% 36% 14% Women 55% 28% 17% PARTY ID FAIR BIASED NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 87% 4% 9% Republican 14% 71% 15% Independent/Other 51% 25% 24% AGE FAIR BIASED NOT SURE % 22% 11% % 29% 19% % 34% 17% % 38% 14% INCOME FAIR BIASED NOT SURE <$50,000 46% 35% 19% $50, % 32% 15% 2016 VOTE FAIR BIASED NOT SURE Trump Voters 14% 69% 17% Clinton Voters 88% 1% 11% 16

17 QUESTION: Do you believe President Trump should or should not be impeached and removed from office? SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE STATE 36% 49% 15% REGION SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 42% 41% 17% Metro Suburbs 31% 55% 14% Southern Minnesota 33% 48% 19% Northern Minnesota 33% 56% 11% SEX SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Men 31% 54% 15% Women 40% 45% 15% PARTY ID SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 67% 14% 19% Republican 4% 94% 2% Independent/Other 29% 47% 24% AGE SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE % 34% 18% % 48% 21% % 58% 9% % 51% 15% INCOME SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE <$50,000 37% 50% 13% $50, % 52% 14% 2016 VOTE SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Trump Voters 5% 91% 4% Clinton Voters 66% 12% 22% 17

18 QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Trump s description of the news media as the enemy of the people? APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE STATE 29% 64% 7% REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 22% 71% 7% Metro Suburbs 34% 60% 6% Southern Minnesota 27% 67% 6% Northern Minnesota 33% 59% 8% SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Men 33% 61% 6% Women 25% 68% 7% PARTY ID APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 4% 91% 5% Republican 68% 25% 7% Independent/Other 20% 72% 8% AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE % 75% 7% % 63% 7% % 62% 7% % 62% 6% INCOME APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE <$50,000 35% 58% 7% $50, % 66% 7% 2016 VOTE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Trump Voters 62% 27% 11% Clinton Voters 1% 96% 3% 18

19 QUESTION: Roe v. Wade was the Supreme Court decision that made abortion legal. Would you like to see that abortion law kept in place, modified in some way, or overturned so that abortion is illegal? KEPT MODIFIED OVERTURNED NOT SURE STATE 59% 26% 12% 3% REGION KEPT MODIFIED OVERTURNED NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 70% 18% 8% 4% Metro Suburbs 51% 33% 13% 3% Southern Minnesota 59% 24% 15% 2% Northern Minnesota 52% 29% 15% 4% SEX KEPT MODIFIED OVERTURNED NOT SURE Men 55% 26% 16% 3% Women 62% 25% 9% 4% PARTY ID KEPT MODIFIED OVERTURNED NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 80% 12% - 8% Republican 28% 40% 30% 2% Independent/Other 63% 28% 9% - AGE KEPT MODIFIED OVERTURNED NOT SURE % 20% 9% 4% % 28% 13% 3% % 27% 13% 3% % 26% 13% 4% INCOME KEPT MODIFIED OVERTURNED NOT SURE <$50,000 52% 28% 16% 4% $50, % 25% 12% 3% 19

20 QUESTION: Thinking about your household s financial situation, would you say you are better off, worse off or about the same as you were two years ago? BETTER WORSE SAME NOT SURE STATE 27% 16% 56% 1% REGION BETTER WORSE SAME NOT SURE Hennepin/Ramsey 20% 16% 64% - Metro Suburbs 33% 16% 50% 1% Southern Minnesota 24% 18% 55% 3% Northern Minnesota 30% 13% 55% 2% BETTER WORSE SAME NOT SURE Men 28% 13% 58% 1% Women 25% 18% 55% 2% PARTY ID BETTER WORSE SAME NOT SURE DFL/Democrat 8% 19% 72% 1% Republican 53% 8% 37% 2% Independent/Other 23% 20% 56% 1% AGE BETTER WORSE SAME NOT SURE % 15% 66% 1% % 17% 56% 1% % 14% 52% 1% % 16% 55% 2% INCOME BETTER WORSE SAME NOT SURE <$50,000 28% 17% 54% 1% $50, % 14% 57% 1% 2016 VOTE BETTER WORSE SAME NOT SURE Trump Voters 50% 9% 40% 1% Clinton Voters 6% 20% 73% 1% 20

21 DEMOGRAPHICS PARTY IDENTIFICATION: DFL/Democrat 299 (37%) Republican 246 (31%) Independent/Other 255 (32%) AGE: (19%) (25%) (28%) (27%) Refused 6 (1%) INCOME: <$25, (10%) $25,000-$49, (16%) $50,000-$74, (16%) $75,000-$99, (15%) $100, (16%) Refused 213 (27%) SEX: Male 377 (47%) Female 423 (53%) REGION: Hennepin/Ramsey 255 (32%) Metro Suburbs 230 (29%) Southern Minnesota 160 (20%) Northern Minnesota 155 (19%) INTERVIEW: Land-line 483 (60%) Cell Phone 317 (40%) 21